I’ve been working on a new book about an electronic cash system that’s fully peer-to-peer, with no trusted third party.
The book is available at:
I’ve been working on a new book about an electronic cash system that’s fully peer-to-peer, with no trusted third party.
The book is available at:
Full Episode on YouTube:
Chopping it up with nostr:npub1mrmu3s5889zcaqcqwxejx8gtkp9rwna7fq0vqezk4x22rnpr2gmsmfeyr9
I’m an ordinary guy. I don’t measure myself by the accomplishments or opinions of others, but only by the effort I muster. I can’t control what comes my way, but only how I show up.
So while I am here, I might succeed or fail, win your approval or face your derision. But I’ll keep showing up and doing my best, because my best is all I have to give, and it is enough.
The readily available supply of Bitcoin—meaning BTC that is easily accessible on exchanges and OTC desks—is being rapidly depleted. While it’s difficult to predict an exact date it will “run out,” we can analyze on-chain trends and supply mechanics to estimate when a significant liquidity crunch might occur.
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📉 Current Readily Available Supply (Mid-2025)
SourceBTC Available (approx.)
Exchanges~2.5 million BTC
OTC Desks~120,000 – 150,000 BTC
Total~2.6 – 2.65 million BTC
This is out of a circulating supply of ~19.7 million BTC. That means only ~13.5% of all Bitcoin is currently liquid and available to purchase without significant price impact.
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🧠 What Drives This Downward Trend?
•Cold storage by long-term holders and institutions
•Self-custody as trust in centralized platforms declines
•Accumulation by ETFs, sovereigns, and corporations (e.g., BlackRock, El Salvador, MicroStrategy)
•Fewer new coins minted due to the halving in April 2024 (only 3.125 BTC per block)
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🔮 Estimating the “Run Out” Point
If BTC continues to be withdrawn from exchanges and OTC desks at current rates, we could hit critical liquidity levels fairly soon:
Historical Decline Rates
•In 2020: ~3 million BTC on exchanges
•Mid-2025: ~2.5 million BTC
•That’s a loss of ~500,000 BTC over 5 years = ~100,000 BTC/year
But the pace is accelerating:
•In the last year alone, some sources report a drop of 200,000–300,000 BTC from exchanges and OTCs combined.
Scenario: 200k BTC/year drain
If 2.6 million BTC is currently available:
•In 5 years, under this pace, only ~600,000 BTC could be left
•By ~2030, the readily available supply could be functionally exhausted
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⚠️ The More Realistic Risk: Liquidity Shock
The actual “run out” won’t be a day when there’s zero BTC available. Instead, it’ll be when:
•The float is so thin that large buy orders cause explosive price movements
•Exchanges and OTC desks can’t fill orders without substantial premiums
•Buyers are forced into bidding wars for the remaining liquid BTC
This kind of supply shock could realistically occur anytime between 2025 and 2027, depending on:
•ETF inflows
•Institutional adoption
•Global macroeconomic instability
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✅ Summary
•~2.6 million BTC is currently liquid.
•Liquidity is shrinking rapidly.
•If current trends continue, a severe supply crunch could occur within 1–3 years, with full exhaustion of liquid supply by the end of the decade.
•The result? A massive price repricing event where demand overwhelms supply.
I’m just here for the shenanigan
Chapter 9
How To Collapse A Global Reserve Currency Without Really Trying
The United States dollar has dominated the global economy for nearly a century. Since the end of World War II, the dollar has been the world’s primary reserve currency — the unit of account in which oil is priced and international debts are settled. The dollar, and dollar-denominated debt, are the stores of value stocking central bank vaults around the world. This “exorbitant privilege” has given the U.S. immense geopolitical and financial power. It could borrow cheaply, spend freely, sanction adversaries at will, and export inflation without immediate consequence. But the dollar’s strength is also its weakness: It is built on ever-expanding debt. The U.S. does not have to save in order to spend. It simply borrows — and prints. Other nations are expected to work, save, and produce goods and services for export to the world — while the U.S. mostly exports paper currency, and inflation.
But this 80-year-old arrangement is showing its age. Logic dictates that the U.S. debt cannot grow forever. As discussed in Chapter 3, the national debt is now approaching $38 trillion, with no plan – and perhaps no possibility – to ever pay it down. We “manage” this debt by servicing the interest payments, and turning a blind eye to the principle obligation. And since we lack the political will and discipline to reduce the national debt or balance the federal budget, the gargantuan debt just continues to grow, every single year. For fiscal year 2025, interest payments on the national debt are projected to total about $952 billion, more than we’ll spend on healthcare ($889 billion), Medicare ($848 billion), or National Defense ($820 billion). How much larger can the debt get before the house of cards comes crashing down? No one seems to know. But with no plan whatsoever to keep it from continually expanding, it seems we’re destined to find out someday.
Way to be on the wrong side of history Katie 👎🏾
nostr:note13exu0d44xpnn8q54z2yt353r879lxl2t9m0k3k9ucgh3l33qvzys279fka
I believe gold was initially more a SoV than UoA, at least until the Lydians started coining it. As the dollar falls to zero against BTC, BTC will take its place as the default UoA. And that will happen way before the block subsidy falls to zero
It’s a very comforting feeling knowing that the bulk of your wealth is protected behind a massive zettahash powered digital vault!
When I realized the US national debt is $36T but M2 is only $21T, and that the US could basically seize every USD in the universe and still be $15T in the hole, it dawned on me the whole economy is a con game. I’ve been all in $BTC ever since
If #Bitcoin hasn’t profoundly shocked you, you haven’t understood it yet