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therationalroot
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#Bitcoin on-chain & cycle analysis. Signal only. Follow the carrot down the rabbit hole.

While our seasonal behaviors are consistent on a cycle basis year-to-year, the Halving introduces slight shifts.

Read more in this week's newsletter πŸ‘‡

https://www.bitcoinstrategyplatform.com/news/seasonality

Seasonality: Today's date in previous cycles.

#Bitcoin

From Capitulation to Elevation: Zooming into the Long-Term Holder Cost Basis:

https://www.bitcoinstrategyplatform.com/news/long-term-holder-cost-basis

#Bitcoin Halving Cycle.

House prices at 5.6x median household income vs. 3x in 1985. Play fiat games, win fiat prizes.

The Long-Term Holder cost basis made a new plateau every cycle. Zooming into that plateau is actually full of information. The decrease, observed by the 90-day change, is slowing down, indicating a repetition of past cycles. #Bitcoin 🧡

#Bitcoin broke down out of the compressed zone, floating freely in a phase of indecision, historically causing choppy sideways price action. πŸ‘‡

https://www.bitcoinstrategyplatform.com/news/a-pivotal-moment-in-the-cycle

We're at a pivotal moment in the cycle, we saw a change in STH Volatility. Bitcoin’s price broke free of a compressed zone and now floats freely in a phase of indecision, historically allowing for some time below the STH cost basis.

Read full report:

https://www.bitcoinstrategyplatform.com/news/a-pivotal-moment-in-the-cycle

Each cycle during the year leading towards the Halving, highlighted in the chart below, #Bitcoin dipped below the Short-Term Holder average purchase price.

green = above STH cost basis, red = below. πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡

A trendline can be observed for each cycle by looking at the volatility (distance) of price from the STH cost basis.

Volatility dampens and reaches a pivotal moment when the trendline goes above the STH cost basis.

A pivotal moment in the cycle for Bitcoin. πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡

Should have been posted with image, somehow can't currently add image with iris or damus. https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1692653158902735270?s=20

Why have we been seeing the least volatile price action for Bitcoin? Read more here:

https://www.bitcoinstrategyplatform.com/news/bitcoin-is-boring-bitcoin-strategy

Now 19.46 million, the end of 2015 was around 15 million.

HODL'ers are relentless, 75% of all coins in circulation are Long-Term Holders, levels not seen since 2015. #Bitcoin

Strong start off the cycle bottom, now in re-accumulation mode. #Bitcoin