I regret posting this.
I had my reasons, but they were my own.
I regret them now.
I apologize Lyn if you read and were hurt by my previous post.
It was my shit, and I embarrassed myself. nostr:note14vert95vqz0tn23qspjume6dwydtdsngtz3pj6vk4u3xuy02t7wqnem6l9
I feel like I should share the story of how I missed my life-path to an unknown Christian Bale, exclusively on Nostr, and how that changed the direction of my life.
Yay or … yeah you get it.
You’ll yay Lyn…because she’s amazing.
You’ll never know how amazing I am. nostr:note1efyxqwuk02zy8k0q644w2xw2ttfl8tkwdm4fyt82rp88c5mej4jq4zn0y8
Oh shit…
I’m in no way committed to moving to El Salvador (scheduled to visit there soon) but….to open a nostr:npub1mm0eraw9am3l8pjwas6t9r7fn34ge3zty5yg3n856rvds485342qlqnm32 club there? Feels like a no-brainer!
Let’s not let this idea fade away my friend! nostr:note1xpms6dm33zmhfsn2496x3cu9wznsc4fq3zdru0k4guj7rt7usynqmwzjug
And i should add that I’ve experience working performance clubs, that I have no idea if I want to live in El Salvador but will be visiting there in a few months to decide, but I feel like I need to leave the United States and if so I LOVE the idea of funding a club for Japanese-based independent musicians (as a start up). And you being you, I’m just saying I’m appreciating there might be a possibility here. We’ll keep in touch and find out.
Oh shit…
I’m in no way committed to moving to El Salvador (scheduled to visit there soon) but….to open a nostr:npub1mm0eraw9am3l8pjwas6t9r7fn34ge3zty5yg3n856rvds485342qlqnm32 club there? Feels like a no-brainer!
Let’s not let this idea fade away my friend! nostr:note1xpms6dm33zmhfsn2496x3cu9wznsc4fq3zdru0k4guj7rt7usynqmwzjug
“Responsibly all-in.”
“I like the orange coin. A lot.”
My research and audience straddles the macro finance world and the bitcoin world. And so humorously, I get heat from both sides.
“Lyn, I love your macro work but you’re too obsessed with bitcoin; I wish you would focus less on that stuff.” -hedge fund reader.
Vs
“Lyn, since you’re a fellow bitcoiner, why do you only have a 5-10% allocation to bitcoin in your public model portfolios!? Shouldn’t you sell all your stocks and buy more?” -fellow pleb.
I talk to many institutions, as well as high net worth individuals, and medium net worth individuals like engineers and doctors. This is where individual situations come into play. I had been watching bitcoin for a while, publicly wrote about it near the top of the cycle in 2017 and (correctly) passed on it from that point, but then kept watching it during the bear market and then hardcore jumped into it during the March/April 2020 crash starting at $6,900/coin as a long-term bull, and haven’t wavered since.
For example, 2.5 years later as Bitcoin crashed amid the FTX fallout in November 2022 from 69k to sub-16k, I was at Pacific Bitcoin laughing about it. I was not uncertain.
In those initial months of 2020, I put every dollar of my liquid capital into bitcoin. I didn’t sell my existing stocks and trigger capital gains tax, didn’t withdraw from my IRA or 401(k), but otherwise most of my existing liquid cash and all of my incoming earned cash went into bitcoin. I threw like a quarter of my net worth into it. And it paid off. For me as a conservative investor, that was my version of “all-in”. I wasn’t fucking around. I never go all-in like that, but I did it for bitcoin.
I grew up poor, and then worked for 12 years in engineering and engineering management. There is no world where I would invest in such a way that there was even a 1% chance that I could be wrong and lose my entire net worth and the past 12 years of my work at that point. I would never be 100% invested unless I consider it to be risk-free, and I consider nothing to be risk-free, and so I diversify by default. I am conservative as a baseline, but opportunistic when appropriate. I put at most 5% into any one stock, but I threw 25% into bitcoin as an anomaly due to how bullish I was. My husband was like, “what are we doing?” and I was like, “trust me, here’s why”.
And then, there are eight family members and associates who, if I were to go broke, would have to radically diminish and change their lifestyles. Their housing support and their everyday income comes significantly from my earnings. It’s like running a small business. So, when I see people on social media be like, “wHy DoN’t YoU gO aLl iN?” I’m thinking like, “Bitch, I’ve gone about as all-in on this new distributed ledger as I can while still sustaining a reasonable level of lower volatility equity and other assets for tangible income and fallback support for eight people”. And then I realize the anon who wrote that is probably a single dude in his parents’ basement, and my response is unwarranted. Don’t let anons on social media affect you.
For example, our extended family ran into a liquidity issue and had to change households this year, and we got a good real estate deal but it was based on me having six figures in liquidity to just throw around at short notice, which meant having maintained adequate diversification for that possibility, which I was anticipating.
In my model portfolios, I began to recommend a 5% bitcoin allocation in early 2020, and then I took some chips off the table in 2021 near the highs after a 3x and 5x gain as Musk was pumping Dogecoin, to rebalance back down to that 5% target. Why? Because not everybody has put a thousand hours of research into it and can realistically put a quarter of their liquid net worth into it. My point was, “your portfolio has zero bitcoin, you should probably have at least 5% bitcoin, and better yet, you should buy bitcoin non-custodially at whatever size is appropriate for you. As it soars, rebalance. As it falls, buy back in.” That rebalancing worked well for my public portfolio. I warned of exuberance, leaned into fear, despite not trying to predict any short-term price action.
And during 2022, amid the bear market, I joined the formation of Ego Death Capital, a bitcoin-only VC firm, as a founding advisor. And more recently, I’m leaning more into that role, and some announcements regarding that are incoming in terms of my deeper involvement. In other words, while bitcoin price action was in a period of weakness, I was happily ready to lean in to it with my capital, my time, and my reputation, to fund bitcoin companies that were developing cool stuff. https://egodeath.capital/portfolio
And then there was my husband’s wisdom. He edits all of my research reports, among other work that he does. And he has better wisdom than me overall. One day in early 2023 amid the bear market out of the blue after hardly ever talking about bitcoin he was like, “How many bitcoins do we have?” I said the number X but also explained that I am buying more lately. He said, “Alright, good, let’s get to Y soon. I know you are super cautious, and I love that, but don’t mess around on this. Buy more. Push harder. I know you have extra pockets of liquidity above the baseline. Use them.” By Y, I mean he gave me an aggressive number that was a bit above what I would have otherwise done in that timeframe.
I was like, “Okay I’ll try. But I mean, we need certain liquidity.” And he said, “I’ve edited your research reports for years. I’ve never seen you more convicted on something. Don’t fuck around on this. Lean into it. We will figure out liquidity if need be. You said to trust you in early 2020 when you initially bought it. Trust me here in 2023 when I say to buy extra vs whatever you’re buying. I can read you better than you can read yourself, and the answer is to buy. You’re being too conservative.” I followed his advice, at like sub-$20k and sub-$25k.
And then later this year, within the past few months, we indeed balanced it very tightly; I had bought as many bitcoin for us as we could early in the year and I barely hit the target he set since I was being cautious, and then we ran into a surprise liquidity requirement (changing households in Egypt) and needed to throw capital at a new place as a down payment for our family for seven people, and I was like, “This is why I maintained so much liquidity, btw. We have it because I saw this type of thing coming!” And he was like, “But we have it, right?” I and I was like, “Yes, barely at such short notice!” And he was like, “So we have the exact amount then, fucking nailed it!” The yin-and-yang worked well.
The point is, I’m as all-in on bitcoin as I get with any asset. Which means to say, I am ready to survive its failure or repression in long bear markets without selling any, but I am also highly engaged and invested in its success. I never go all-in on anything, but I’ve never leaned into any asset as thoroughly as I have done on bitcoin since April 2020. It’s the maximum I lean into any asset while still maintaining financial prudence. When it falls 80%, it doesn’t affect my lifestyle or force me to sell. When it soars, I am cautious, and focus on how to best improve the success of the network.
Good evening. Let's accelerate.
I didn’t come to this until reading your post here, but I’ve now come to this, and I can’t appreciate you enough right now.
The “Bitcoin Citadel”, the “Sovereign Individual”…its just about recognizing that our future is changing dramatically, that most people can’t recognize and embrace that change, that change is never assured and may lead to sadness.
I believe - for myself, imho - that everything that isn’t Bitcoin is TRULY Shitcoin.
But YOLO’ing into a Bitcoin future isn’t a sound course either, and most of the ‘World’, as I see it, is in this camp. The Monied Class has no interest in embracing Bitcoiner culture, even though that culture is on the cutting edge of the coming Century.
In 10 years, the world will be vastly different than we experience it now. I believe that it’ll be better, if not it’ll be tragic. The change has to happen. Bitcoin is the only Hope we have right now to make that transition better, and it’s a powerful one, a good one.
So for myself, I go all in on Bitcoin because I don’t see a better future without Bitcoin assuming all measurements of all other assets.
If I’m wrong, I’ll be old and dead, and I’ll apologize to my children that their world is unsalvageable.
Goddamit.
Forget El Salvador.
I only need to move to where the next 20 years is happening. nostr:note13k5g55pqazh5nkfzwj8qmjvv92wl8k6mq0eszchgtqr5qhghd4zsx6whvd
Literally triggered 15 seconds ago:
“Oh FUCK ME…I need to learn about ‘Air Replies’ now???
The American Constitution is only protected and validated in the Supreme Court of the U.S.
Thus, with the Corporatization of government - which our Founding Father’s couldn’t anticipate - there is no Constitution anymore. It’s gone.
I just posted a Nostr post about how Corporatization destroyed Democracy and the Rule of Law by creating ‘virtual compartmentalization’ of PoW, no consequences for actions, and a move toward a ‘vertical’ orientation of management that distances individuals from their actions, allowing the rise of a tiny group of Sociopaths/Psychopaths to assume power in America, and the world.
But we’re here. This is indeed the last fight, irl. We fight these Sociopaths, and we create a new world that will be nothing we can actually imagine now.
To fight these Sociopaths, we need better ‘stock’ than Swan Bitcoin, et al.
Evidently I already Liked them from one of your previous posts.
As an (non-musical) artist, this feels like Jane’s Addiction for a new generation. imho.
I was playing Diablo 4 online with friends tonight, and had a thought:
The thing about all large-geography role-playing games is that you always get to talk to the people in charge.
This has always seemed very immersion-breaking for me. I mean, nobody gets to actually talk to the people who run our city, our state or our country (unless you’re vetted and you pay).
BUT - history has taught me there was a time when the White House had an open door for whomever happened by (as late as the mid-1800’s), when Presidents and Senators et al would have to physically travel town-to-town to engage with citizens of all kinds, and sway their vote by doing so. “Glad-handing” and kissing babies and such.
And yes, ‘duels’ could be declared by a peer against a peer, and a few times assassinations happened or went awry.
Take all this how you will.
What changed was the rise of the Corporation.
With the rise of the corporation (on the back of Fiat money, very important to note) was the rise of Departmentalization, of ‘Vertical’ structure, the rise of the wealthy intentionally recognizing and creating ‘worlds within the world’ in which nobody else could engage with them.
It’s as simple as hiring a Customer Service Dept to handle customer complaints.
Or “First Class” cum “Private Jets”.
Or “Vacation to Hawa’ii” became, idunno, where do the rich vacation now that you and I can’t go?
And it’s become as exceedingly as complex as a Deep State that is beyond Democratic, or even elected-official oversight, and which is now a global Organized Crime ring.
This ‘Virtualization’ - not the right word, but its what I have right now - this Virtualization of real human interaction underscores all of the problems we suffer right now in modern society.
People who can gain power no longer have to engage with the plebs.
People who can gain power no longer have to answer for their actions.
They’ve established a real-world industry of Customer Service to separate them from having to have real lives, with real consequences.
They now live in a world apart.
And therefore, they see the rest of us, as a world apart from them.
It wasn’t always this way, not but by a few generations.
It was the rise of the Corporations on the back of Fiat money that rug-pulled our Leaders’ Humanity out from under them, and allowed the tiny number of actual Sociopath/Psychopaths that exist in human society to flood into the halls of Rulership.
In the past, 1 maybe 2 Sociopath/Psychopaths could gain power, at great cost.
Now, they seek refuge from their shame by flooding into the major Institutions of Central Planning across the globe.
If you want to be entertained and educated about China, you might want to begin with the following:
https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaFactChasers
https://www.youtube.com/@TheChinaShow
There are others, but the reality is that if you don’t get information directly out of China by people who speak and read Chinese, you’re getting Propaganda.
100%.
So these two references make it fun and interesting and entertaining to learn why Wall Street is bassackward and going to lose their fiat shirts because they’re too white for China!
China will be the rug-pull of Wall Street.
As much as I want Nolan Bauerle to be right that Etherium is the rug-pull that brings down Wall Street…
I think the end is simpler and more global.
Almost nobody in global finance understands that they never knew anything about China, and that it’s collapsing.
China had cheap labor, and nothing else.
And that’s done now.
That great sucking sound is Chinese investments going to zero.
I grew up with Vallejo and Frazzeta as a kid, blissfully shamed at loving their artwork so much. It boggles my mind that Stan Lee is a quadrillionaire, while talents like these go unsung.
I could listen to Nolan Bauerle (@Countbtc) talk about anything.
Maybe the woman from Panties4Bitcoin for a female perspective on Bitcoin businesses? She seems very personable on twitter.
Haven’t heard from Caitlyn Long in awhile, always appreciate her views.
Could you wrangle Alejandra Guajardo? That’d be a delight.
I hope you’re right.
And I appreciate your viewpoint!
But I don’t know.
And I can’t help but worry for my children.
There is a point to #bitcoin
Peer to peer digital economy
I’m just wondering where we are gonna get all this supply from?
More and more, especially now are being sold to the biggest hedge funds on the planet, they’ll never see the market again as they’ll be traded between customers on BlackRock rails
I’d said for 2 years there wasn’t enough urgency
Price of Bitcoin will be ridiculous anyway, but the “Bitcoin is hope” theme is becoming harder to share around
Only so few will own bitcoin, less and less guaranteed
Legal tender, balance sheets, nation holdings, reserves currency, hedge fund asset, #Nostr #Zap , say 16 million are circulating
Wow….. for all these uses
Then you’ve got guys like nostr:npub1excellx58e497gan6fcsdnseujkjm7ym5yp3m4rp0ud4j8ss39js2pn72a with Liquid and the lightning wallets
And stacking speed from plebs is average, think it’s time you might wanna up the urgency
Buying more now
I kinda appreciate your question.
But the supply will come from everyone you appreciate.
The OG’s in Bitcoin have, and will sell, more than YOU will ever imagine.
It’s coming in this bull run.
I agree.
I think to embrace either side is to embrace genocide.
Therefore the world needs to take the psychological consultant stance: don’t embrace either side of a dysfunctional relationship.