The world is waking up to the power of sound money. #Bitcoin
The landscape of building products and companies in the tech industry is undergoing a significant transformation, moving away from the era of vertically-integrated, walled gardens. The pendulum is already on it's downward trajectory and the future of tech looks brighter than it has in years.
## The End of Vertically Integrated Tech Giants
Over the last 20 years, the tech industry has been dominated by vertically-integrated companies. These companies controlled everything from hardware to software to user data, due to the complexities and costs associated with running large-scale data centers and infrastructure. This control allowed them to create powerful monopolies that continue to dominate the industry. However, advancements in technology and changing market dynamics are leading to the erosion of this model. Companies can no longer solely rely on their integrated structures to maintain market dominance. Users are increasingly seeking alternatives that offer more control, more privacy, and more freedom of choice.
## The SaaS Model: Losing its Edge
Another aspect of the tech landscape that is starting to show it's age is the sofware as a service model. The appeal of the SaaS model, once a groundbreaking approach, lay in the simplicity and scalability it offered, both for providers and users. Why own, run, and maintain software when you can rent it by the month? But, increasingly high subscription costs, lack of data ownership, and a one-size-fits-all approach have led to accute customer dissatisfaction. Furthermore, parabolicly rising customer acquisition costs and challenges in user retention amid intense competition are making it difficult for SaaS companies to sustain profitability and growth.
## The Return of Self-Sovereign Solutions
Companies like 37signals, Start9, and Umbrel are examples at the forefront of a movement back towards a more user-centric, decentralized internet.
1. **[Once](https://once.com)**: This initiative by [37signals](https://37signals.com/), one of the originators of the SaaS movement and makers of [Basecamp](https://basecamp.com) and [Hey](https://hey.com) is a direct response to the limitations of the SaaS model. Once aims to offer a line of software products that users can own permanently after a one-time purchase. This model revives the notion of software ownership, privacy, and security, allowing users to host and control their own IT infrastructure. It signifies a paradigm shift from renting to owning software, granting users more autonomy and control.
2. **[Start9](https://start9.com)**: Start9 is democratizing access to private servers, making it feasible for average users to establish their own server infrastructure. This approach is a significant departure from the cloud computing model, which often compromises privacy and involves high costs. Start9’s StartOS enables users to easily install and use a variety of open-source software, empowering them with greater control over their digital footprint and reducing their dependence on large tech companies.
3. **[Umbrel](https://umbrel.com)**: Umbrel provides an operating system for personal home servers, enabling users to manage their data, run private networks, and even engage in cryptocurrency operations from the comfort of their homes. This model places a strong emphasis on privacy and data control, challenging the traditional cloud-based models. Umbrel's offerings, including ad-blocking across the network and automation of home devices, represent a shift towards more autonomous and self-reliant computing.
## Rearchitecting the Internet
This shift goes well beyond innovative companies reimagining the experience of buying and using tech products. The emergence of decentralized publishing protocols, such as [Nostr](https://nostr.how), exemplify the shift towards a more open, user-controlled internet.
Nostr, which stands for "Notes and Other Stuff Transmitted by Relays." is an open protocol designed to enable censorship-resistant and global value-for-value publishing on the web. Unlike traditional web protocols, Nostr is not a specific app or service, but rather a standard that allows for the creation of various applications and services, all of which interoperate using the same data.
One of Nostr's key strengths is its resilience, stemming from its independence from a limited number of trusted servers for data movement and storage. The protocol is designed to be robust against the disappearance of relays, allowing users to connect and publish to numerous relays that can be changed as needed.
Another espeically important feature in the age of AI is that accounts and messages on Nostr use public-key cryptography. This allows anyone to verify a message's origin and that the message's contents haven't been tampered with.
The rise of protocols like Nostr represents a movement away from centralized control of publishing and data storage towards a more distributed, user-controlled approach. This decentralization not only enhances privacy and security but also promotes freedom of expression and information sharing, aligning with the early ideals of an open and free internet.
## The Return to an Open, Decentralized Internet
This shift is not just a technological change but also a cultural one, where users demand more transparency, control, and ownership over their digital lives. The rise of these new protocols, products, and companies is a clear indicator of this transformation signaling a return to the early principles of the internet – openness, decentralization, and freedom.
Excellent read. Thanks for writing this piece and look forward to your next. It's been quite a while since I've been this optimistic about the future of the internet.
The landscape of building products and companies in the tech industry is undergoing a significant transformation, moving away from the era of vertically-integrated, walled gardens. The pendulum is already on it's downward trajectory and the future of tech looks brighter than it has in years.
## The End of Vertically Integrated Tech Giants
Over the last 20 years, the tech industry has been dominated by vertically-integrated companies. These companies controlled everything from hardware to software to user data, due to the complexities and costs associated with running large-scale data centers and infrastructure. This control allowed them to create powerful monopolies that continue to dominate the industry. However, advancements in technology and changing market dynamics are leading to the erosion of this model. Companies can no longer solely rely on their integrated structures to maintain market dominance. Users are increasingly seeking alternatives that offer more control, more privacy, and more freedom of choice.
## The SaaS Model: Losing its Edge
Another aspect of the tech landscape that is starting to show it's age is the sofware as a service model. The appeal of the SaaS model, once a groundbreaking approach, lay in the simplicity and scalability it offered, both for providers and users. Why own, run, and maintain software when you can rent it by the month? But, increasingly high subscription costs, lack of data ownership, and a one-size-fits-all approach have led to accute customer dissatisfaction. Furthermore, parabolicly rising customer acquisition costs and challenges in user retention amid intense competition are making it difficult for SaaS companies to sustain profitability and growth.
## The Return of Self-Sovereign Solutions
Companies like 37signals, Start9, and Umbrel are examples at the forefront of a movement back towards a more user-centric, decentralized internet.
1. **[Once](https://once.com)**: This initiative by [37signals](https://37signals.com/), one of the originators of the SaaS movement and makers of [Basecamp](https://basecamp.com) and [Hey](https://hey.com) is a direct response to the limitations of the SaaS model. Once aims to offer a line of software products that users can own permanently after a one-time purchase. This model revives the notion of software ownership, privacy, and security, allowing users to host and control their own IT infrastructure. It signifies a paradigm shift from renting to owning software, granting users more autonomy and control.
2. **[Start9](https://start9.com)**: Start9 is democratizing access to private servers, making it feasible for average users to establish their own server infrastructure. This approach is a significant departure from the cloud computing model, which often compromises privacy and involves high costs. Start9’s StartOS enables users to easily install and use a variety of open-source software, empowering them with greater control over their digital footprint and reducing their dependence on large tech companies.
3. **[Umbrel](https://umbrel.com)**: Umbrel provides an operating system for personal home servers, enabling users to manage their data, run private networks, and even engage in cryptocurrency operations from the comfort of their homes. This model places a strong emphasis on privacy and data control, challenging the traditional cloud-based models. Umbrel's offerings, including ad-blocking across the network and automation of home devices, represent a shift towards more autonomous and self-reliant computing.
## Rearchitecting the Internet
This shift goes well beyond innovative companies reimagining the experience of buying and using tech products. The emergence of decentralized publishing protocols, such as [Nostr](https://nostr.how), exemplify the shift towards a more open, user-controlled internet.
Nostr, which stands for "Notes and Other Stuff Transmitted by Relays." is an open protocol designed to enable censorship-resistant and global value-for-value publishing on the web. Unlike traditional web protocols, Nostr is not a specific app or service, but rather a standard that allows for the creation of various applications and services, all of which interoperate using the same data.
One of Nostr's key strengths is its resilience, stemming from its independence from a limited number of trusted servers for data movement and storage. The protocol is designed to be robust against the disappearance of relays, allowing users to connect and publish to numerous relays that can be changed as needed.
Another espeically important feature in the age of AI is that accounts and messages on Nostr use public-key cryptography. This allows anyone to verify a message's origin and that the message's contents haven't been tampered with.
The rise of protocols like Nostr represents a movement away from centralized control of publishing and data storage towards a more distributed, user-controlled approach. This decentralization not only enhances privacy and security but also promotes freedom of expression and information sharing, aligning with the early ideals of an open and free internet.
## The Return to an Open, Decentralized Internet
This shift is not just a technological change but also a cultural one, where users demand more transparency, control, and ownership over their digital lives. The rise of these new protocols, products, and companies is a clear indicator of this transformation signaling a return to the early principles of the internet – openness, decentralization, and freedom.
Excellent read. Thanks for writing this piece and look forward to your next. It's been quite a while since I've been this optimistic about the future of the internet.
⚠️ Repurchase agreements are beginning to jump orders of magnitude.
The total securities purchased by the #Fed in the overnight repo facility just spiked to the highest level since mid-2020.
Even this massive spike will pale in comparison to the amount of securities the Fed will begin purchasing in 2024.
Get ready for a wild ride in the repo market.
The Fed has no choice but to create new currency as liquidity crises mount. This is simply how the fiat system works. There is no alternative but for the central bank to continue creating new currency out of thin air. As debt-to-GDP spirals higher, the amount of new currency creation will also spiral higher -- but to an even greater extent.
The fact that new currency creation is accelerating is part of the reason why the price of Bitcoin is surging right now.
As the money printer begins to heat up, so too does the price of Bitcoin.
#RPs / #RRPs / #Fed / #FOMC / #FedPivot / #Recession / #BTC / #BTCUSD
Inflation is a hidden tax.
It allows the central government to usurp the wealth of workers unbeknownst to them.
By having immutable scarcity, #Bitcoin prevents central governments from levying this hidden tax.
$BTC compels such governments to be accountable to their citizenry and to levy taxes through the political process.
Therefore, when a government seeks to ban Bitcoin, what they're really intending to ban is its accountability to the people.
Central bankers fear the day workers begin to demand their wages in #Bitcoin. They'll lose control of the money supply and their ability to manipulate economies by devaluing the proletariat's labor.
#Bitcoin is starting to heat up.
Its weekly candles are now yellow on this heatmap chart.
In the last halving cycle, Bitcoin's price peaked at more than 6x the price it was when its weekly candle first turned yellow during that halving cycle.
Though each halving cycle becomes less extreme, even if we 3x from here we'll be up to ~150k.
#BTCUSD / #BitcoinETF
The #IWM / #SPY ratio is forming a major shooting star pattern on its 3-month chart.
We're likely nearing the period when the S&P 500 begins to underperform #smallcap.
This is a warning for #Mag7
#AAPL / #NVDA / #AMZN / #MSFT
Exactly! #Bitcoin is replacing #gold as the risk-free asset that forms the monetary base. Bitcoin is far more efficient because, unlike that of gold, its ledger is publicly auditable and decentralized.
The S&P 500 is now at a major area of resistance against the money supply (M2).
$SPY / #SPX / #SPY / #SP500
The price of gold is believed to be manipulated down because of bad accounting whereby gold leased by the central bank is double counted to inflate supply and bring down the price. Since the full ledger of gold is obscured, this allows gold's price to be artificially suppressed by those who control its ledger and who have a vested interest in propping up the value of fiat currency over hard money like gold. However, this cannot occur for Bitcoin without the bad accounting being easily detected due to the fully public and decentralized nature of its ledger. This is why the #SEC has a major problem in approving a Bitcoin spot ETF. There is no easy way to manipulate its price down since Bitcoin's ledger is, by design, not easily controllable. The irony in all of this is that price manipulation is what the SEC has cited as a reason for its hesitancy to approve the ETF. Yet, the opposite is more likely the real reason for its hesitancy: the price of Bitcoin is resistant to downward manipulation against the dollar, which is what the SEC is actually concerned about. If they permit a Bitcoin spot ETF, then it undermines the entire fiat-based #TradFi system.
Here's a challenge for you: Figure out how to measure your investment portfolio's long-term performance using #Bitcoin as the unit of value measurement rather than fiat currency.
2023 performance
#Bitcoin #QQQ #SPY #TLT 
Nice thoughts! Throughout history all real money has always been a commodity. Satoshi himself confirmed that Bitcoin doesn’t fail Mises’ Regression theorem.
Here's the real reason why the SEC doesn't want a #Bitcoin spot ETF...
No one would invest in the fiat system anymore.
Here's a seasonality chart for December and my market analysis for 2024 and beyond:
The S&P 500 has rallied throughout most of the year, and that trend is likely to generally continue into the close of the year. However, the yield curve is deeply inverted and the VIX futures term structure is in a deep contango. These indicate that we're at the end of a business cycle.
In early 2024, the Fed will likely pivot. Once reverse repos (#RRPs) reach zero, the Fed will no longer be able to continue balance sheet roll-offs at the current pace. Futures charts are already showing early signs of pricing in Fed cuts. Indeed, the U.S. monetary base is already reaching the highest levels since the Fed began tightening.
Stagflation, which is already occurring in some countries, will likely begin in the U.S. in 2024. Commodity prices, including gold, will break out as soon as central banks resume monetary easing. The slow deflation and disinflation that we've seen throughout 2023 have merely formed the flag portion of a bull flag pattern for commodities on the higher timeframe. Eventually, higher commodity prices will push up #PPI and the underreported #CPI.
Bitcoin -- which is a digital commodity -- will likely rally along with other commodities. Bitcoin's #S2F and market cap will surpass that of gold in the coming years, as it continues its trajectory of becoming the new risk-free asset and the unit of account. By late 2024 and 2025, altcoins will begin to outperform Bitcoin as they typically do at that stage of the halving cycle.
Continuing jobless claims in the U.S. are beginning to break out. In prior business cycles, the Fed has usually begun cutting rates before jobless claims break out. This time around, the Fed has hiked us right into a breakout. Given the lagging effect of monetary policy, the Fed has positioned us well for higher unemployment rates in 2024 and beyond.
Severe stagflation is likely coming. During this period, geopolitical conflict becomes more likely. In turn, increasing geopolitical conflict can worsen stagflation as countries share less of their scarce resources by imposing export restrictions, and as countries allocate a higher amount of their GDP into destroying the means of production of other countries, making all countries worse off.
Not financial advice. Do not buy or sell any security because of this tweet.
Check out my article on the future price action of Bitcoin and its tendency to become the new risk-free asset: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/0QFdVTt2-The-Bitcoin-Corridor/
Today, the trading volume for the SPY was the lowest in 3 years, and the 4th lowest in 18 years. This is anomalous even for an early holiday close.
The spread between the high and the low, as a percentage, was the lowest since 2017, and the 5th lowest ever for the SPY.
Three dojis have appeared in a row, which can often signal an exhaustion of a trend and a potential reversal. However, the #SPY is heading into a typically bullish seasonal period of the year.
Reverse repos ( #RRPs ) continue to collapse. They're now approaching 900B. The clock is ticking for the #Fed to pivot.
At the current rate, including end-of-year window dressing, RRPs will likely be completely unwound no later than around February 2024. After this point in time, the Fed will, as a mathematical certainty, need to pivot (failure to do so will otherwise cause massive #liquidation spirals to raise cash).
A significant economic downturn is coming due to the extreme monetary tightening that occurred in 2022 and 2023. It is overwhelmingly likely to begin in the U.S. by the end of 2024. The current prolonged 10y/3m yield curve inversion hints that the coming recession will also be prolonged. Right now, however, much of the market is believing the soft landing narrative. A soft landing always seems most plausible right after the central bank stops tightening but before the effects of that tightening result in an economic recession.
Unlike recessions in the past several decades, the coming economic recession will be characterized by high inflation (i.e. stagflation). Inflation will be amplified after the Fed pivots back to monetary easing.
The inflationary situation will get far worse in the years and decades ahead as interest payments on public debt spiral higher while #GDP growth slows. The combination of these factors will necessitate explosive growth in the currency supply, resulting in yet even higher inflation.
During this phase, the price of #Bitcoin will spiral higher, unnerving central banks. Countries at the forefront of the hyperinflationary spiral will begin to outright adopt a Bitcoin standard, while those countries most entrenched in power under the current fiat system will more strongly oppose #Bitcoin and decentralized ledgers in general.
Perhaps most alarming is the need for central banks and central governments to find a scapegoat for the catastrophe they've created. Often that scapegoat becomes an opposing nation-state, raising the prospects of #war.