A doji is price candle that forms when the price closes the trading period exactly where it opened. A gravestone doji resembles a tombstone, and when it appears there is a high chance that the price is about to fall, particularly when it occurs after a long uptrend. 
The #SPY is still on track to print a bearish reversal candlestick on its weekly chart.
#SPX / #SPY / #SP500 
The 10-year U.S. #Treasury bond yield is looking poised to close its 6-month candlestick with a gravestone doji.
This bearish candlestick formation suggests that yields will fall in 2024.
However, since long-term resistance is flipping to support, Treasury yields may resurge in the years ahead as inflation also resurges. The coming recession is likely to be stagflationary. 
There will come a time when people work their entire lives to try to accumulate 1,000,000 Sats.
Just want to say thank you to all the wonderful people on here who have supported me over the past month! Thank you not just for your support, but also for just being on #Nostr. I appreciate that this platform even exists and that there are so many like-minded, #freedom-loving people.
In 2024, the #Fed will be faced with a Catch-22.
It will need to pivot and ease monetary conditions and cut rates as #liquidity issues mount and growth slows. But simultaneously, it will also need to keep monetary conditions tight and rates high as inflationary pressures resurge. With the general election ahead, political pressure will mount on the central #bank to curtail the high inflation that it caused by creating excessive amounts of new fiat currency.
One thing is for certain: The central bank will continue to underreport #inflation (see chart).
The situation will get much worse in the years and decades ahead as public debt exceeds total #GDP by more and more. Interest payments alone will begin to take up much of the budget and central banks will increasingly turn to fiat currency creation to finance the debt, which is inflationary. De-dollarization and the abandonment of #Treasury bonds as a risk-free asset will further accelerate inflation.
Ultimately, #Bitcoin will become the global risk-free asset because of its immutable scarcity and its status as a fully auditable public ledger that is incorruptible. Rather than try to fight Bitcoin, central banks ought to embrace Bitcoin since it will ultimately solve the problems that they created.
All fiat currencies have ended in hyperinflation, and this time will be no different. 
Posted my first article on #Habla -- check it out!
The 10-year/3-month #Treasury yield spread is about to print a reversal doji on the 6-month chart.
Typically recessions (shaded in red) begin when this spread moves substantially higher.
Earlier this year, the NY #Fed, using this chart as a recession predictor, placed the odds of a U.S. #recession starting by May 2024 at 70%. This was the strongest recession signal in over 40 years.
See more here: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq#/interactive
A massive bearish shooting star is appearing on the quarterly chart of #SPY / #IWM
The tail of the shooting star tagged the peak level reached during the Dotcom Bubble (depicted by the black line in the chart).
It's likely that this ratio has peaked and is about to roll over. We may be at the start of what will be years of large-cap underperformance relative to small-cap.
This does not necessarily mean that the Russell 2000 will rally from here on out, instead it's a warning that the large-cap stocks that comprise the SPY have a lot to lose in the coming recession -- even more than already hard-hit small-cap stocks.
#SPX / #RUT / #smallcap / #mag7 
The #Fed is preparing to pivot back to monetary easing right as #war begins to disrupt global supply chains.
Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (also known as #DAOs) have immense potential to disrupt Wall Street and the current multinational corporate system.
One of the biggest leaps forward will come when the means of production becomes increasingly controlled by DAOs. Wall Street is hardly prepared for a future where control of production is #decentralized.
Rather than owning shares in a corporation that can be traded and controlled by #WallStreet, equity ownership of a DAO can be established through asset tokenization, built using smart contract logic, which eliminates the need for Wall Street to serve as a middleman for transactions or as the custodian of assets.
Decentralization is already underway, with decentralized #finance protocols like #Uniswap and #AAVE already issuing tokens that in turn allow for decentralized control of their treasuries. Since these frameworks are built, in large part, on the #Ethereum network, #Ether will be increasingly demanded over time as the De-Fi space grows by orders of magnitude over the coming years and decades.
Most legal systems do not provide sufficient infrastructure for the formation and existence of DAOs. Thus, inevitably, DAOs will come at odds with centralized governance. Yet, it remains to be seen how decentralized organizations can effectively be stopped. Certainly, #CBDCs will become an important tool.
This is a terrifying chart of $AAPL
A gravestone doji is forming on the log-scale quarterly chart of the ratio of #AAPL and the risk-free asset (a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond).
This gravestone doji is forming right at the +2 standard deviation of the log-linear regression channel formed over the entire history of this ratio.
From a conceptual standpoint, what this chart indicates is that there's far too much optimism in the market about Apple's stock for the yields on the 10-year Treasury to be as high as they are.
Indeed, earlier this year, there was more fear in the market about a default on U.S. Treasurys than a default on Apple's bonds. This should never happen.
A private company, no matter how great its business model, does not have the power to create money, as does the federal government. Therefore, no corporation's bonds should be perceived as safer than a U.S. Treasury bond. Yet, this is effectively what this chart is illustrating is occurring right now. In so much as this ratio has reached its highest standard deviation from the mean ever, the market is far too optimistic about Apple's stock price when there's so much fear about Treasury bonds (and the U.S. Treasury's ability to repay its debts).
Since the U.S. Treasury bond underpins the global financial system by serving as the (theoretically) risk-free asset, there's never an instance whereby extreme volatility on Treasury bond yields won't eventually transmute into increased volatility for riskier assets, including stocks.
Very rarely do you see a higher timeframe chart this extremely over-extended on a log scale. A chart like this is something one would expect to see at the end of a supercycle because a reversal on this timeframe could last for many years. While it's certainly very possible that Apple's nominal stock price may continue to reach new ATHs, this chart is as worrying as a chart gets from a long-term perspective.
I'm worried about the many investors getting trapped at this supercycle high. Too many people believe that the central bank has achieved a soft landing and that the #Fed will cut rates. Too many market participants are wrongly assuming that a return to monetary easing will cause tech stocks to balloon in price again, as happened in 2020-21.
The coming recession will be much different. This time around, when the Fed cuts rates, inflation will quickly resurge causing central bank monetary policy to enter a period of whipsaw (where rates are cut and hiked erratically due to stagflation, similar to what happened in the 1970s/80s).
Although the Fed will indeed begin increasing the money supply dramatically in 2024 (it actually already started to do this), be cautious in assuming that this money will flow directly into tech stocks. Instead, the newly created fiat currency will increasingly flow into commodities as they continue to take up an increasing share of the total money supply. Commodities will take up more of the money supply because of rising conflict, deglobalization, economic protectionism, climate change/the effects of a transition to sustainability, and aging and less productive global demographics.
I hope that time proves me wrong because if I'm right, a lot of people are going to be very disappointed about Apple's real performance in the years ahead.
#AAPL / #Apple / #QQQ / #Nasdaq
Recessions and volatility spikes tend to occur when the SPY/TLT ratio plummets.
Right now, the #SPY / #TLT ratio is printing a bearish shooting star all the way up on the quarterly chart (each candlestick is a 3-month period).
Note how high this ratio has risen. It's nearly double the peak value reached in the lead-up to prior recessions. (The red-shaded areas highlight previous U.S. recessions).
Never has the S&P 500 been as overvalued as it is now when compared against the 'risk-free asset' (long-duration U.S. Treasurys). In fact, the S&P 500 is so overvalued that the sell-off in 2022 merely brought the Shiller PE Ratio down to about the same level as the peak before the Great Depression.
What concerns me the most about this SPY/TLT ratio chart is the unprecedented confluence of higher timeframe charts. The ratio is about to begin oscillating down on the monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, and yearly charts at the same time.
My conclusion is that the coming recession will likely last quite a long time, or that it will come in waves as occurred during the stagflation of the 1970s (when several recessions occurred within the span of about 10 years).
Although it's easy to believe the proposition that a soft landing has been achieved when the VIX is 12 and the SPY is near an ATH, be aware that higher volatility will ensue from the record-fast rate hiking cycle. There is always a long lag between when interest rates rise and when the broad economy is impacted.
Many charts continue to confirm that strong stagflation is coming. While I am a stock market bull over the long term, I remain convinced that an economic storm is coming.
I feel sorry for those who post: "Bitcoin is going to CRASH!"
They haven't yet discovered that Bitcoin is hard money, and that a crash in the price of #Bitcoin can only happen if fiat currency, which is backed by nothing, is your unit of account.
They fail to realize that Bitcoin's 5,583,371,195% return against the dollar since 2009, represents the dollar crashing in value.
If Bitcoin's price temporarily comes down against the dollar in 2024, what's happening is that the dollar's ongoing crash against Bitcoin is taking a temporary respite.
Enjoy your read. What amazes me about the advent of smart contracts is how they remedy one of the most common problems inherent to contracts in general: breach. Smart contracts either make it virtually impossible for a contract breach to occur or they otherwise algorithmically remedy the breach. In doing so, they largely remove the need for litigation.
My stock market top indicator triggered this morning.
At the time it triggered, the indicator reached the extremely rare red level. Every time this level has been reached in the past, substantially higher volatility occurred in the following months. 
As for methodology, this indicator uses regression analysis on a volatility-adjusted stock market indices average. The red line is the mean. The highest level ever recorded was at the Dotcom Bubble peak when the value reached +2.1. Earlier today it reached 1.5, which is the highest level since 2017.
With low volatility typically occurring over the holidays, the indicator may go deeper into the red as we head into January. However, volatility typically increases in mid-January, and I would not be surprised to see some kind of significant sell-off as we enter that period.
#SPY / #SPX / #SP500 / #Trading
Just finished watching. Great job on this! Love your content!
When we get to $200k per sat, the US dollar will no longer be the unit of account. People won't be using dollars to measure the value of Bitcoin anymore, rather Bitcoin itself will be the unit of account.
Good point about $MSTR. Also, I would love to see a de-fi solution for ETFs/mutual funds. Sure, self-custody will always be better, but I feel like there are certain important use cases for ETFs/mutual funds that self-custody doesn't adequately encompass.
If you had held GBTC since its inception in 2015 instead of Bitcoin, you would have lost approximately 63% of the upside gains that #Bitcoin had during that period. This is in large part because of the high expense ratio that Grayscale charges #GBTC investors (2% per year).
This is why we shouldn't get too excited about Bitcoin spot ETFs -- if the expense ratios are high, investing in Bitcoin will mostly enrich the financial institutions offering the ETF. This is more true for Bitcoin than for stock market or bond ETFs because Bitcoin does not pay a dividend that could offset the expense ratio.
While the SEC may approve Bitcoin spot ETFs, it could also impose heavy regulatory compliance measures that increase administrative costs and drive up expense ratios. This in turn could diminish the effect of investing in a Bitcoin spot ETF over the long term.