Bullish Divergence is occurring on the daily chart of the VIX
Bullish divergence on the #VIX implies volatility may soon increase, which of course, is bearish for the #SPY on the timeframe of the divergence. However, it is unusual for volatility to move substantially higher near the holidays when volume is muted.
From a seasonality perspective, volatility typically increases beginning in early-to-mid January and generally tends to trend higher until about mid-March.
#SPX / #Volatility / #Trading / #SP500
#SPY gapped up at the open, pushing the daily RSI over 80, the highest in over 3 years (since September 2020). 
The Fed has a problem.
When it mentions "end of hiking cycle" this happens.
$GOLD / #Gold / #XAUUSD / $GLD / #Fed / #FOMC
Today, the S&P 500 experienced an extreme event.
During the #FOMC press conference, the #SPX briefly exceeded the Bollinger Bands' +3 standard deviation on the daily timeframe. This event rarely occurs, and only occurs during extreme market optimism.
The #VIX did not confirm the higher move-up as it created a higher low over yesterday's trading session while the #SPX created a higher high. The last time this type of divergence occurred was 6 years ago in November 2017, about two months before a significant #volspike (VIX went to 50).
The current S&P 500 environment remains consistent with the end of a business cycle when the Fed stops tightening and the market believes a soft landing has been accomplished because the ensuing recession has not yet started. More often than not the #SPX reaches new ATHs during this period.
So far in December, the VIX futures term structure remains in deep contango and the yield curve remains deeply inverted, both of which further confirm that we're at the end of a business cycle.
An economic #recession is likely to begin in the U.S. by the end of 2024. It will likely be stagflationary with inflation remaining high even as demand continues to cool.
In the digital age, the emergence of smart contracts has created the ability for governance to become decentralized to a degree not possible previously. Smart contracts -- through their algorithmic immutability -- mitigate the problem of corruption, which has plagued centralized governance since its inception. No longer must personal biases impact the output that some input receives.
Yet, smart contracts are not without their own vulnerabilities. Each time a smart contract vulnerability is exploited, this act -- however benevolent or malicious the actor -- improves upon the underlying design of the smart contract, thus making it more secure.
In so much as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other decentralized protocols are displacing centralized fiat currencies, the decentralized protocols that are built upon them are displacing centralized governance structures, from decentralized social media (Nostr) to decentralized organizations (DAOs). Some might argue this is the natural progression of human evolution.
However, is there ever a case where total decentralization can be detrimental?
It's also great to hear that this environment has persisted for so long on here. Very promising!
After using #Nostr for several weeks, one thing that has taken me by surprise is how there are very liberal and very conservative people on here, and yet they both share a sense of community and don't spend all day posting content against each other. Despite differences in political persuasion, they find common ground on here.
Now that I've seen this, I better understand how dangerous centralized control of social media is -- where algorithms continuously drive inflammatory content to users to keep them addicted to the platform. I find it ironic that a censorship-resistant platform is largely devoid of much of the inflammatory content that's present on censorable social media. One may have thought the opposite would be the case.
Exactly right. It's a peaceful revolution.
A lot of people fail to realize this, but the price of Bitcoin in U.S. dollars is, in many ways, a real-time chart of de-dollarization.
The price of Bitcoin only goes up (when priced in dollars) because people are trading in dollars for Bitcoin. Those who trade dollars for Bitcoin with no intent to sell that Bitcoin for the foreseeable future ("#hodlers") are, by definition, abandoning the dollar.
Furthermore, the #LightningNetwork is creating a major market of #V4V exchange in which the dollar is no longer the unit of account. The unit of account is Bitcoin. People are increasingly exchanging goods and services for sats, the smallest unit of Bitcoin.
This is de-dollarization.
Look closely at these charts.
On the left is 150 years of U.S. #stock market performance. Currently, the stock market is pressing against the +2 standard deviation of a log-linear regression channel applied over its 150 years of data.
On the right is the U.S. #GDP growth since 1947. It's barely hanging onto the -2 standard deviation of a log-linear regression channel applied over its 76 years of data.
Never before has the stock market been so deviated above its long-term mean while GDP so deviated below its long-term mean. Perhaps what's so surprising about this chart is that GDP is barely clinging onto its -2 standard deviation, but the market perceives GDP growth as strong and resilient.
What we're dealing with right now is a massive asset bubble that is being caused by excessive currency creation by the central bank. Asset bubbles tend to only get bigger. However, they also become increasingly hard to sustain over time as increases in the money supply result in increasingly smaller gains in productivity. The ultimate consequence is higher inflation, though central governments obfuscate this fact and use obscure tactics to delude the public into believing inflation is much lower than it actually is.
This is unsustainable, and it will eventually come to an end. In the meantime, get ready for many years of increasing inflation. Those counting on deep deflation will be deeply disappointed in the years ahead, as the only thing that will reliably deflate is one's wealth in the face of a perpetually increasing supply of new fiat currency.
As we approach the close of the year, it's important to remember that the 10y/3m yield curve is still inverted.
It has been continuously inverted for over a year, which is the longest period of continuous inversion on record.
What this is likely warning is that not only is a #recession coming, but that it will likely last a long time.
It's always during the phase between when the central bank stops hiking rates and the start of the recession that it feels like a soft landing has been achieved.
The median price of a house in the United States is about to fall back below 10 #BTC
Seeing how governments abuse social media both to promote propaganda domestically and to sow division among their adversaries abroad is why a decentralized platform is critically needed.
The governments that most heavily rely on propaganda to feign their legitimacy will also be the first to try to ban Nostr...
But they will soon discover they can't.
When I first learned economic theory in a formal academic setting, after having us read Adam Smith's _The Wealth of Nations_, they presented to us a base case rule for making decisions called the Prudent Man ([Prudent Person Rule](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/prudent_person_rule#:~:text=The%20prudent%2Dperson%20rule%2C%20also,446%20(1830).)) Whenever there was a tough decision we were trained to ask ourselves, "What would a prudent man do?"
Later, we learned the Prudent Person, while a good reference point for moral decision-making, does not exist. [Behavioral economics](https://haas.berkeley.edu/behavioral-economics/about/#:~:text=This%20line%20of%20study%20has,on%20to%20win%20Nobel%20prizes.) taught us that humans do not make prudent, rational decisions.
Now I contend that none of that mattered, because [the incentive system was completely discombobulated since 1933](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/fdr-takes-united-states-off-gold-standard). When real money went away, and then the [fiat system came online](https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/gold-convertibility-ends), the incentives slanted towarddebt and liabilities over assets. How could a person be prudent and succeed?
The tide has turned. Real money exists again. Bitcoin changes the calculus. Change the money, change the incentives, change human behavior, change the world.
Study Bitcoin. Start buying Bitcoin. Engage with the community. And see if it does not change you.
Interesting read. Glad you correctly pointed out 1933 as the year when the incentive system was dismantled. So many people incorrectly say 1971. In 1933, gold coins were taken out of circulation, and this was the major pivot away from hard money. Bitcoin indeed changes the calculus in a very profound way. Good job 👏
