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Andrew M. Bailey
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I’m here to chew bubblegum and talk about bitcoin and I’m all out of bitcoin

One of the best effects of the current American administration is to remind people that some laws are bad, and that some crime is good.

I fear they will forget the lesson very quickly, upon taking back power. But it is a good lesson!

bitcoin is for criminals

Source: HRF's Financial Freedom newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/hrf.org/financial-freedom-newsletter

About once a year, I send a student on a Ph.D. program in Philosophy — very rarely in other words. As it should be!

A big part of my job is career coaching: asking young adults what they want out of work life and how they'll get it. I get all sorts of answers. But never once has a student shared a dream of buying U.S. Treasuries.

I am officially neutral or slightly skeptical about a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. But here's an argument I'd like to develop and evaluate:

Our world is increasingly multi-polar, with realignments of who knows what kind on the horizon. Borders will change. Cross-border payment systems will realign too. It seems useful to have on hand a way to transfer value across those new and shifting borders, without the cooperation of intermediaries. Bitcoin, unlike other digital monies, can do this.

So the reason to stockpile some bitcoin isn't merely that it is likely to become more valuable. It's that it is uniquely useful, and it is wise to stockpile useful tools you might need.

Objection: if the USFG really needs to pay mercenaries or buy munitions or spy software or whatnot, and doesn't have a way to wire dollars to sellers, it can just buy bitcoin at the very moment of need — no need to buy it now.

Reply: the objection only works if we assume that bitcoin's value will remain flat or decline. Otherwise, the counter is: acquiring some bitcoin now will allow the USFG to benefit from appreciation, and make any future purchases using bitcoin cheaper.

Another reason I prefer this style of argument over the proposal that the USFG should buy bitcoin now, merely for the reason that it will likely rise in value, is that it is explicitly framed around bitcoin's unique point of usefulness. The fundamental reason to buy bitcoin isn't that Number Go Up, it's that bitcoin can do things other tools cannot. This also supplies us with a plausible answer to the question: why bitcoin? why not TSLA? Or NVDA? Because bitcoin can do things these other assets cannot. Its value lies, not merely in expectation of future appreciation, but in utility.

Objection: acquiring bitcoin, in the hopes to someday use it for cross-border payments, is best done in secret. A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is most useful when covert.

Reply: that's probably correct. But there are limits to what a democratic government can do, covertly. And acquiring bitcoin in public enhances any Number Go Up effect, by providing a clear and widely-known signal of bitcoin's value.

Philosophers: "that noble tradition of thinkers who were so annoying that their countrymen would either execute them (Socrates), banish them (Aristotle), excommunicate them (Spinoza), or not have sex with them (Kant)."

From Robert Gressis' memoire, "The Most Awkward Man in Japan: Dispatches from a Philosopher Abroad" (2024)

(It's good, and much funnier than one might guess, given that it's written by a philosophy professor!)

Random person emailing me their thoughts about bitcoin and money, but without any indication they know anything about my research. It happens!

I get the most interesting emails!

- Will autocrats attempt to expand their power over payments?

- Will central banks continue to print, and sometimes go belly up?

- Will other cryptos prove to be fraud and delusion?

If you say “yes” to these questions, congratulations: you understand the case for bitcoin.

Nihilism — the view that nothing could really matter — is both false and mischievous. False: some things do matter, regardless of our attitudes. Mischievous: if you believe it, your life will become less meaningful and good.

Nihilism is, then, rather dangerous. It'd be good to have an antidote. There are many, in fact:

1. Love: giving and receiving

2. Old Books: they remind us of what matters by taking us far away

3. Long Walks: we are animals, not spirits, and animals live best when animated

So also: some people have awesome and correct views, and act on them. When censors block your access to those views, they block your ability to understand the world, to predict how it will unfold, and to act on the basis of evidence.

Some people have repugnant views and act on them. When censors block your access to those views, they block your ability to understand the world, to predict how it will unfold, and to act on the basis of evidence.

2025 draws nigh. What advice do you have for me, for the coming new year?