Methodology

The model works through a weighted summation formula:

BTC = Base Value × (1 + Σ(Weight × Feature Value))

Weights remain fixed, feature values are reviewed annually according to global conditions and intuition.

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Short-term Dynamics

Short-term components add volatility and momentum:

News flow, mainstream attention, the stock-to-flow factor and the Bitcoin halving.

These elements influence sentiment and accelerate or delay market reactions.

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Long-term Drivers

Long-term dynamics form the foundation of the model:

Monetary expansion, interest rate policy, global economic health and institutional accumulation.

They define the structural trend that guides Bitcoin over multiple years.

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Core Idea

Bitcoin does not react to single events.

It responds to long-term forces that evolve over time.

Aurora translates these forces into a transparent, weighted structure.

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Aurora Model

Introduction

The Aurora Model is a macroeconomic framework designed to forecast Bitcoin’s price development.

It merges data, human intuition and structural analysis into one coherent approach.

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Aurora Model – 2026 Preview

The Aurora Model implies a Bitcoin value of:

= €128,000

= $150,000 USD (at today’s exchange rate)

Based on global liquidity, real rates, economic health, institutional demand, supply scarcity and adoption. Full methodology and data in the free Aurora Research 2026 report.

I estimate Bitcoin around 600,000 USD by 2035, driven by micro and macroeconomic forces. Beyond that, these drivers may weaken. Disruptive forces such as AI, humanoid robotics, a shifting global order, and a new monetary system could redefine value itself. The image is only a schematic simplification.