don’t trade on borrowed conviction.
might start a daycare in ‘26. seems profitable.
what’s the point of price prediction
wtf even happened from january until now
Summary
Money is framed as a technology humans invented to move value across time and space, and Bitcoin is argued to be the best current implementation of that technology, superior to fiat, commodities, real estate, and gold on core monetary properties.
Core thesis
Money is not whatever the state declares; it is a tool that solves barter’s “coincidence of wants” problem by letting people store value now and exchange it later at scale.
Good money must be scarce, durable, divisible, portable, hard to create, hard to counterfeit, and neutral to control; money is specifically the thing you acquire not to consume.
Bitcoin is positioned as purpose-built money with fixed supply, issuance locked in time, and no consumptive use, making it structurally superior to commodities and fiat.
Why barter fails and money exists
In small groups, direct barter (meat for water, shelter for childcare) works, but breaks down as society scales because you rarely find a perfect mutual “coincidence of wants.”
Money emerges when a good is used not for consumption but as an intermediate store of value (e.g., using oranges purely to trade for apples later), i.e., it becomes “monetized.”
Therefore, money’s job is to let specialized producers store their time and energy in a non-consumed medium that can be reliably converted into future goods and services.
What makes money “good” or “bad”
Scarcity & cost to create: No one should trade scarce time and energy for something someone else can print or cheaply produce; fiat and abundant commodities are “easy money.”
Durability, divisibility, portability: Good money can survive time, be split from a franchise to a grain of sand, and move easily—ideally in your pocket or even your head (seed phrase).
Stock-to-flow is used as a quantitative scarcity metric: how many years of current production are needed to recreate the existing stock; higher stock-to-flow implies better monetary quality.
Why commodities, silver, real estate, and even gold are bad money
Commodities are meant to be consumed; when their price rises, new supply floods in because producers are incentivized to dig more out of the ground or remonetize previously consumed stock (e.g., melting silverware).
Silver is singled out: its supply growth responds strongly to price, it has industrial demand, and current spikes are framed as unsustainable; higher prices simply pull forward new supply and eventually crash the price.
Gold is acknowledged as better than silver (higher stock-to-flow, lower annual supply growth) but still ultimately subject to new discoveries, higher-cost mining, and even extreme scenarios like off-planet extraction.
Real estate is a poor store of value because most of it is directly consumed (lived in), so it is not truly functioning as money and its “monetization” is structurally limited.
Why Bitcoin is different
Bitcoin is not consumed, not used in industrial processes, and has a hard cap of 21 million, making it the first asset in history with truly fixed supply and eventual infinite stock-to-flow.
Issuance is denominated in time: roughly every 10 minutes, regardless of price, new Bitcoin are mined; to hyperinflate Bitcoin one would have to solve time travel, not just deploy more capital or machines.
Bitcoin dominates silver and gold on verification, portability, storage, divisibility, and costliness to produce, because production is gated by proof-of-work and time rather than geology or policy.
Macro backdrop and implications
Rising commodity and metal prices (including silver and gold) are interpreted as leading indicators of renewed inflation, with an expectation of inflation returning in 2026 under a “run it hot” Trump policy mix.
Historical analogies to post–World War II “wartime financing,” fiscal dominance, and large Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion are used to argue that nominal growth will be driven by monetary debasement.
As Western sovereigns struggle to finance debt (rising yields, falling bond demand), debasement and inflation are framed as the politically inevitable path, increasing the premium on superior monetary technology like Bitcoin.
Prescriptive takeaways for individuals and businesses
Individuals and businesses should select money as deliberately as they select vehicles or aircraft: use the best technology for the job rather than legacy or emotionally comfortable instruments.
The recommended behavior is to produce more than is consumed, then store the surplus in Bitcoin rather than in fiat, commodities, silver, gold, or primary homes, which are viewed as inferior monetary assets.
For businesses, practical usage includes holding a portion of the balance sheet or profits in Bitcoin and using services like Strike for buying, lending against, and integrating Bitcoin into financial operations.
short gold, long #bitcoin. 😈
people who treat their dogs like humans are retards.
#wfh is over bro
bro it’s not a #comet
never too young to pass up on 10.75%
yieldmax #msty is designed to lose money.
hopium 🚨 #btc #bitcoin
merry christmas you filthy animals
why central banks can’t be trusted #bitcoin
Strive is striving for relevance in the BTCTC space #ASST
Metaplanet price action looks promising over the past month with an mNAV of 1.25. #MTPLF #MPJPY #3350
Summary #MSTR
MicroStrategy (Strategy) positions itself as a Bitcoin-first treasury and financial innovator using its software cash flows and capital-markets engineering to maximize long-term Bitcoin per share, while now offering dollar-yield products like STRC/“Stretch” that target mass-market savers with a ~10.75% tax-deferred yield and minimal price volatility.
Bitcoin thesis and market backdrop:
Phong Le reiterates that Bitcoin’s fundamentals and policy tailwinds (US government, banks, and TradFi infrastructure moving to support custody, lending, and products) are stronger than ever despite short-term bearish sentiment and price chop.
Strategy’s mindset is to hold Bitcoin “for eternity,” focus on mathematically driven treasury structures (MNAV, derivatives, preferreds), and treat volatility as noise relative to long-duration adoption through 2026 and beyond.
Bank relationships and product stack vision:
Large US and global banks have moved from one powerless “head of digital assets” to full-room, senior-level engagement and are actively building native Bitcoin services to keep assets on-platform.
Le expects major banks to roll out a full Bitcoin stack within 2–3 years: custody/checking‑like access, lending against BTC, yield instruments, Bitcoin‑backed securities (MSTR-style), digital credit, and ultimately “digital money” instruments yielding roughly 8–10% and backed by BTC.
Stretch (STRC) and preferreds architecture:
Stretch (ticker STRC on Nasdaq) is described as a structurally price-stable preferred equity targeting near-zero volatility and paying ~10.75% cash yield monthly into brokerage accounts, designed to function economically like a superior money-market alternative for short-term cash.
Strategy now has four core preferred structures (Strike, Strife, Stride, Stretch), uses them to raise capital at scale (~$7B in 2025), and views Stretch and Strife as the primary templates to replicate across international markets (Europe, Canada, Japan, Middle East) under local regulation.
Tax, USD reserve, and balance-sheet strategy:
Because the operating company has negative taxable earnings and profits (driven largely by stock-based comp and software accounting), preferred “dividends” are treated as return of capital, lowering cost basis and deferring tax until sale of the security.
Strategy created a roughly $1.4B USD reserve to pre-fund years of preferred dividends, improve credit quality, support rating upgrades toward investment grade, and strengthen market confidence that it can cover payouts without forced BTC sales, even in extended drawdowns.
Willingness to sell BTC and adaptation:
Le states two simultaneous truths: fiduciary duty to all shareholders means Strategy would sell Bitcoin rather than default on obligations, but the current structure (USD reserve + BTC + derivatives + equity) is designed so they do not expect to ever have to sell Bitcoin.
He frames Strategy as an adaptive, innovative Bitcoin treasury plus software operator, arguing that rigidity would be a weakness and that evolving policies around dividends, reserves, and instruments are evidence of strong, flexible leadership.
MSCI, indices, and “digital asset treasuries”:
The MSCI move to potentially exclude “digital asset treasury companies” from indices is portrayed as sentimentally damaging but fundamentally modest versus Strategy’s size and daily liquidity, with estimated MSCI-related ownership closer to $1.5–2B vs a $60B market cap and ~$5B in daily trading.
Le criticizes MSCI’s stance as an opaque, antagonistic precedent that singles out digital assets while other asset-heavy sectors (energy, REITs, gold, telecom/AI infra) remain index-eligible, and argues that index providers should not pick winners so early in an emerging asset class.
Operating software business and global expansion:
MicroStrategy’s legacy business intelligence arm remains a ~$470M revenue, ~3% growth, 4,000-customer, 27-country software franchise serving large enterprises (e.g., Hilton, Freddie Mac), which provides cash flow, people, and infrastructure to support the Bitcoin treasury side.
Strategy plans to leverage its legal/finance scale and product IP (especially Strife/Stretch) to tap non‑USD capital pools (euro, yen, CAD, AUD, Middle East) and break through more complex non‑US regulatory regimes, which Le contrasts with the relative clarity and innovation capacity of US capital markets.
Competitive landscape of Bitcoin treasuries:
Le views Strategy as the incumbent US digital asset treasury operator and assesses new treasury companies similarly to VC: capitalization, business plan, jurisdictional edge, and management quality, noting that many non‑US treasuries’ main edge is simply their local listing and regulatory footprint.
He stresses that labels like MNAV and BTC-per-share matter, but investors must still underwrite the underlying operating business, leadership, and jurisdictional advantages, as entering a space with a dominant incumbent (like AI, EVs, streaming) does not automatically create enterprise value.
Political/regulatory framing and Bitcoin as “for everyone”:
Le emphasizes Bitcoin as nonpartisan “farm-to-table money,” aligning with American values of freedom and equal opportunity for savers regardless of income or party, with the core norm that “good” returns must exceed inflation, not sit at 0% in checking or low-yield savings.
He argues that as the current pro‑Bitcoin administration normalizes access and education, support for Bitcoin should become durable across political regimes, making attacks on basic BTC access inconsistent with both Democratic and Republican principles of individual rights and upward mobility.
Personal story and cultural/monetary critique:
Le’s refugee story—family wealth wiped out by South Vietnam’s currency nationalization, gold bans, and forced conversion, followed by escape by boat and resettlement in the US—serves as his proof-point that Bitcoin’s censorship resistance and self‑custody would have prevented total confiscation.
He connects his family’s later experience with 30% remittance haircuts and his own STEM→finance career arc to a broader thesis: today’s fiat inflation and money-printing erode hope, weaken work incentives, and fuel anti-capitalist resentment, whereas sound money like Bitcoin can restore long-term saving, effort, and a renewed “American dream” that is actually universal.
why is gold going up and bitcoin not? allow me to scream at you in my empty closet, bitcoin.
going live now
https://www.youtube.com/live/bNFmRvqsI2s?si=tCY3mT1jrgsHHuzY
Summary of today’s show…
Bitcoin price/action looks deceptively calm while underlying monetary, social, and political stress is extreme and building; the core argument is that volatility has been suppressed in markets and is instead erupting in society, and that this tension will ultimately resolve in favor of scarce, non‑political collateral like Bitcoin over time.
Market calm vs social chaos:
Asset prices (equities, Bitcoin around ~88k, bonds) look orderly with low implied volatility, yet everyday life feels unstable: housing, cost of living, and political tensions are all worsening.
Policymakers have “mowed the lawn” in financial markets for years (QE, rate suppression, bailouts), removing natural volatility from prices and pushing it into the social contract instead (rising crime, protests, extremism, assassination attempts, and political radicalization, especially among younger cohorts).
Volatility suppression and “unnatural” stability:
Volatility is framed as the natural state of complex systems, like grass that grows unevenly unless constantly cut; continuous intervention by central banks and governments is described as an unsustainable effort to hide entropy rather than remove it.
Asset calm is therefore considered fake stability; the real system pressure shows up in social unrest, declining trust in institutions, and a pervasive sense that “something is off” even though charts do not yet reflect crisis conditions.
Inflationary system vs deflationary technology:
The fiat regime is characterized as structurally inflationary: examples include the median U.S. home rising from sub‑$100k in 1980 to roughly $500k+ today without commensurate improvement in the underlying asset, illustrating purchasing power erosion under post‑1971 monetary rules.
In contrast, technology and especially AI are described as inherently deflationary, constantly making goods and services cheaper and more efficient; the core collision is between this deflationary tech force and an inflation‑dependent debt system that must keep nominal values rising to avoid collapse.
Housing, Trump 50‑year mortgage, and global affordability:
The new Trump administration is portrayed as preparing to formally acknowledge a U.S. housing crisis and float ultra‑long (e.g., 50‑year) mortgages as a political fix, which the speaker interprets as financial engineering to stretch payments rather than address root affordability.
Japan is cited as another major economy now facing a visible affordability and inflation issue after decades of “it’s different here” narrative, reinforcing the view that the late‑stage fiat problem is global, not just American.
Bitcoin, gold, and the “missing” BTC vol:
Gold and silver are making new all‑time highs and signaling a global repricing and re‑collateralization of the system, while Bitcoin is off its October 2025 ATH by ~30% and trading sideways, prompting questions about “where the volatility went.”
The thesis is that Bitcoin’s lack of explosive upside right now does not mean the thesis is broken; instead, macro suppression, policy uncertainty, and transition dynamics are delaying the next major move, with Bitcoin still framed as the end‑state collateral that benefits once fiat volatility can no longer be contained in politics and social fabric.
You don’t want to miss tomorrow’s interview. Check out the preview below. It’s got a lot of heart. 👇🏼
Subscribe at YouTube.com/nataliebrunell
https://blossom.primal.net/3c55f788746d99bbb5ee1973ef6f40c2f0081cfe06e66fa5cd091d4ec6b3727a.mp4
oh wow the mission is personal 🧡
saylor seems to be advocating for a hard fork that forces people to move coin.
burning those who do not comply.
this breaks the fundamental social contract and value prop of bitcoin: sovereign ownership and property rights.
it must be opposed. strongly.
https://blossom.primal.net/09bdeb018313b0eeeca3d178fb0b183bd4fb75bb29df30bb7d0dfe79d12402ed.mp4
ok pessimist
old enough to witness the rise and fall of chipotle #cmg
director of nuclear fusion research at mit was murdered
sketchy
https://apnews.com/article/mit-shooting-nuno-fg-loureiro-portugal-f310824e354180816c33c9f40c0c5195
imagine all the people that have been murders throughout history (before internet) for break throughs that we don’t know about.
people trading #btc perps deserve the liquidation. stay humble, stack spot #bitcoin.
bankers are high-fiving themselves because some guy by the name of michael is shorting the us dollar.
who shorts the us dollar?
he also took a coffee mug. #mstr #strc
losers on here hate elon but he’s winning the game. #tsla
oh nostr:nprofile1qqsvf646uxlreajhhsv9tms9u6w7nuzeedaqty38z69cpwyhv89ufcqprpmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuumwdae8gtnnda3kjctvqythwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnrw4e8yetwwshxv7tfm8wjp4 👀 #xxi
