Avatar
Btcfeen
36af108c27694d37b77073cd044efc1f5c7a8a043b72f0f6c5b7c91e953778b6
BTC, MACRO, COOKING, FITNESS. I am generally interested in a lot of things and very open minded. I talk about things I find interesting.

I remember breaking 100$, 1000$, and 10k. Just fucking epic 100k baby

I love the weights going up again. 385x7 on trap bar dead lift. The extra carbs/cals help so much with lifting

98
 nostr:note12v7jf86v80z7zshpvknwrkwjysmflz0hmmxhvd5xxj50d7k6mz8qv5rlxl

👀 nostr:note1577l3j08rzxl6zjhp94dcv2ddq4rn62znevv7y74c7zvsndygzrs90erud

Heating up ladies and gents. 95k
 nostr:note1shsplnre73sdzcrkzv64lk67mxrztdwjsg2mcuct8xpsml4whjwsmqaxyk

If you’re buying mstr here you’re assuming that saylor will get to a million coins. Maybe he will, but it won’t be easy as nation states and other corporates catch on

Some of these mstr tards are getting so annoying. We get it, you like fiat bucks.

16 oz ribeye for the ladies bday

Yea the hs band used to play this as we ran out for bball games. Got me so hyped lol

What’s your fav pump up song? #asknostr

Usa and global liquidity
 usa liquidity sideways. Globa down a bit recently. Btc normally trades on a 3m lag to global liquidty. So perhaps we see an iterim top in dec until this starts picking back up https://www.tradingview.com/x/LjibkJnJ/

DXY
 the weekly resistance rejected it for now. Highest weekly rsi since oct of 22’. https://www.tradingview.com/x/spimv9j3/

Us10y
 8 consective green candles
 final had a close over the resistance
 I feel like this is starting to have a bit of an effect on gold finally https://www.tradingview.com/x/XGGC1cyk/

Tlt
 closed below one of the weekly supports https://www.tradingview.com/x/bwWGKaZS/

Spx
 red week last week but structure still fine https://www.tradingview.com/x/h3MkvZx1/

Gold.. bit of a sell off recently. Probably healthy tbh. Daily rsi lowest since oct of last year. Prob good for a bounce at min https://www.tradingview.com/x/XVOEIBi9/

BTC
 the 2w week closed and pushed up on the bands. This is coming off of a top 3 squeeze ever. The past times this has occurred we have had very nice expansions in the subsequent months https://www.tradingview.com/x/eRlFh277/

Good weekly close. Almost full body even though most of the gain was early last week. We avoided any weird deviation on the bband breakout which is great. There is a trendline that could provide some resistance around 105k. https://www.tradingview.com/x/q2TQxB75/

Linear fibs from the range says this should go to 113k next https://www.tradingview.com/x/MT0rcFRD/

Log scale says 140k next if 94 breaks https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZUYiOvJO/

When looking at the updated price/50dma ratio it is in a similar spot to both previous ath range breakouts. We can see on the chart that price/50dma was right around 1.25 where it is now. All 3 times had very nice gains after. So I am expecting price to run a bit more before we get a pullback/consolidation. https://www.tradingview.com/x/RHtfBZY9/ the tops happened within 20 days https://www.tradingview.com/x/WlexOeZE/ the cycle low multiple says we should have an interim top within 30 days too. Expecting basically up only into this. Minimal pullbacks in price. Maybe some consolidation. This also matches with the first wave of hype of new retail and any investors that need to get reallocated. https://charts.bitbo.io/cycle-low-multiple/

I think in regards to game theory saylor is likely trying to push up price/ get as much hype as he can for btc before thanksgiving. He wants the btc price up so he can sell shares too to buy more btc. He always wants to get in the qqq and spx as soon as possible for the passive flows. Right now his average is around 50k. leverage still seems ok to me atm. I hope he doesn’t push it too far too fast though. Although it is all term debt.

We have more btc held by long term holders than ever before. It is natural that as price increases that old holders will want to increase the quality of their lives. I do think that this new set of entrants is more likely to hold for the long term. The boomers have done that pretty well and have been conditioned to do so. We still haven’t really seen IRA’s starting to allocate. I have seen anecdotes of people scoffing at the idea of investing in mstr or etfs. Im sure some are but its still pretty early in that front imo. In 2017, we saw 3m btc sold on the way up from 730 to 20k. in 2021 we saw 2.2 mil sold from 11k to 65k. in the run up phases in 2016 and 2020 we saw 600-700k of selling from long term holders. This time we saw 1.6 mil sold on the run up from 30k to 73k. so imo we have already seen a decent distribution and reaccumulation. The reason price didn’t dip that much was from the spot etf buying. Imo bc of the selling we have already seen price will likely need to go quite a bit higher to unlock major supply. What that is idk, maybe double? Imo the time to get worried is when we have seen 2 to 3 mil of long term holders sell. https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/supply/breakdown_lthsth_0/breakdown_lthsth_0_light.html

looking at mid tfs we have a 4 hr bband squeeze and ascending tri. The 4 hr macd has been a good signal recently. If this plays out similarly when it crosses price to should above 100k. https://www.tradingview.com/x/QslA2LsE/ https://www.tradingview.com/x/tes0fAS4/

Ethusd
 sideways weekly. Not much to comment on here besides watching this big ass tri. Very bullish when the yellow breaks imo https://www.tradingview.com/x/xy2eOjxy/ sentiment on eth is still so down in the dumps. I get that sol has taken over and is the base chain for speculation and memecoins, but imo that is just speculation and it can easily flip around if price rebounds. Imo eth is still a bit underowned for this cycle. I think sentiment now for eth is where sentiment from sol was in early 2023.

Ethbtc red engluflign after the nice candle last week. Bull div atm now on the weekly rsi. Weekly rsi also at a point from where weve seen nice bounces. Pa is in a bit of no mands land. Unless .04 can be reclaimed or .03 hits not sure there is anything super actionable. I do think eth calls are attractive here. eth etf flows are finally getting started and I think it is very possible eth might get a staking yield on top. I think people and wall st might find that attractive over btc and that could allow eth to outperform a bit. https://www.tradingview.com/x/JdPuwBsz/

Total2 very nice breakout of the wedge. At resistance currently https://www.tradingview.com/x/0o4pOV9q/

Total3 same deal here. at resistance https://www.tradingview.com/x/8bNqIizF/

Btc.d still in the channel https://www.tradingview.com/x/eolMkqo9/

Overall thoughts. Another good week. Saylor is a mad man and is going to keep pushing the gas imo. We also have mara that is trying to buy 700 mil worth soon. I am still very bullish for the next month. I think thanksgiving dinners will be hyped and it could lead to a new wave of buying post thanksgiving for a few weeks while people figure it out. This also lines up with my bullish timeline for the next 2-4 weeks. Eth is starting to get more attractive to me. Just a feeling. I think the play there is calls for march or wait until .03 is tagged.

Replying to Avatar walker

Getting messages like this is really meaningful


Part of the reason I started nostr:npub10qrssqjsydd38j8mv7h27dq0ynpns3djgu88mhr7cr2qcqrgyezspkxqj8 was because NGU/hopium/“to the moon” clickbait is just boring to me and I was sick of that being the dominant theme for many Bitcoin podcasts.

Talking about things like homeschooling and the dark history of public education may not get as many views/listens as an NGU clickbait episode, but I honestly don’t care.

My goal isn’t to generate the most clicks; it’s to generate the most value.

If you’re curious about why my crossover episode with nostr:npub1hghnjjpnvkz8t6gkszuf37d7puwc2qtxc65rnklqsngzv6kkug9qhhfyz2 made such an impact, check it out below. nostr:note1d8e6syw708uqrqv7fzgmy9jy9wsfxsd282l74tuta5agmh6ek2ls5hjyn7

Yea I really enjoy your pod man. Loved the episode with Cason and hodl as well. If you’re interested in talking about homeschooling/unschooling more it might be worth trying to get Leah on the pod. She has some interesting thoughts

4hr squeezing again. Feeling confident about 100k this week. If not this week then before thanksgiving. 2w broke out

Random fact. I’m a huge sports fan. That’s right. SPORTBALL