I got some Japanese A5 wagyu for the 100k break. Please don’t make me wait much longer to eat this 😜

This is the way to play it. Stack and save in btc. The shitcoin game is gambling at best.

Indeed it does!

I can’t believe I will have a 5 year old in 10 days. The days are long but the years are short

Have y’all felt resentment from your friends or family bc of money you’ve made off of btc?

Lowest dip before 100k breaks?

Gobble gobble mother fuckers

I thought we would at least hit 100k but shit turned sour. China mining ban, ftx rehypothecation, Fed hikes

Idk man. I have a feeling in my gut btc is going to go way higher than people think this cycle. Most think it stays below 250k. I’m def gonna take the over. More of a 2017 type run imo. I don’t think it’s surprising people are selling 100k here. Once that supply is gone it’ll thin out

Usa and global liquidity… usa liquidity sideways. Global still dropping which is a bit concerning. Jpow seems to be doing this weird thing where he is trying to tote the line between adding liquidty and subtracting it. Liquidity been sideways for 3 years now. Maybe it’s a good strategy idk. https://www.tradingview.com/x/7VagAVum/ reverse repo down to 270 bil https://charts.checkonchain.com/macroeconomic/macro/usliquidity_0/usliquidity_0_light.html

DXY… popped above the weekly resistance but rejecting now https://www.tradingview.com/x/0fA1ygGR/

Us10y… looks to be rolling over here https://www.tradingview.com/x/n8j7OSqK/

Tlt… trying to find support here https://www.tradingview.com/x/uVwWPUi1/

Spx… still looks good. Bounced at the support level at the 50 dma and horizontal support https://www.tradingview.com/x/kfecSqea/

Gold.. rejecting the middle of ote. I think this needs more consolidation at a min now https://www.tradingview.com/x/PgxDVhYn/

BTC… 3 white soldiers on the weekly. Pullback early in the week. Imo we are at a very similar spot to the two spots indicated on the chart. Weekly rsi is spot on too. This would mean that we would continue the pump until dec 15-31 before a larger correction/consolidation. https://www.tradingview.com/x/a4RF3vM5/

Early week pullback is normally good in bull markets. Set the wick and draw in bears to start the week and finish the week strong. We have thanksgiving this week so im sure we will have some bag shilling going on and some extra buys next week.

Saylor has been buying like a mad man. Imo I think its likely he knows the SBR has a very high likelihood chance of going through and that is why he has upped his stacking significantly. Either that and/or the fact the there was a technical breakout and that should propel btc higher. Either way, as btc goes higher and as saylor accumulates more btc there is a reflexive loop. If the premium increases on the stock he can sell shares to buy more. The volume of mstr is insane right now. Otherwise he can issue the convertible debt. There is low risk for the buyers of this debt bc its essentially like a call option which limited downside. Saylor is basically taking advantage of the regulatory landscape and arbitraging it. A lot of funds can’t buy btc directly so he is giving them an outlet. So basically saylor is hoovering up all these coins. This is a different situation than gbtc or things like luna. He is not mark to market. It is all term debt with very low interest rates. Imo he will continue to buy very aggressively before inauguration day before the usa has a chance to pass anything.

If there is a strong argument for consolidation here it is this. Price/50 dma is at a range where it has been a local top the last 3.5 years. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Vc9O5soK/ the argument against that is when we had 2 major structural technical breakotus in the past at the beginning of the bull market we ran further than where it is now. https://www.tradingview.com/x/mLOiGwh6/

Btc couldn’t break 100k on the first go and that is ok. It is a strong psychological resistance area that we always knew was going to have some selling here. the interesting thing is it seems to be mostly mid term holders. No one who bought below 50k is selling. https://x.com/_checkmatey_/status/1860798511476035686?s=46&t=eBlxxS_61VIqfhF3ejKeJA

Turbulence at the first test of 10k https://www.tradingview.com/x/lSfT4x3o/

Top at 1k https://www.tradingview.com/x/NPx7Svkk/

Rejected at 98 and then consolidated for a few days before breaking 100 https://www.tradingview.com/x/7ibU94KU/

Rejected just before 10$ before breaking it after a week or so https://www.tradingview.com/x/P8myKKgt/

The good news is that all of these instances broke the psychological resistances of the base 10. The smallest gain after was in late 2013 and that was after an insane bull run. Imo now is different bc its come after a large consolidation under 75k. https://www.tradingview.com/x/rWRHtutu/

Btc broke this diagonal https://www.tradingview.com/x/ufXUvqPp/

I was a little bit curious to check some of the higher tf indicators I like. The first is the mayer multiple. Price/200 dma. There has been a slew of diminishing returns for this. But even if this holds true and the mayer multiple can’t make a higher high (I think it can) then we will still see the 200 day moving average rise and reach anywhere from 134k to 240k. if I expropolate the 200 dma rsi over the past 2 years and look for a cycle top in q4 we should see a moving average at 134k and a multiple of 1.5. this would be cycle top of 200k. https://www.tradingview.com/x/8s3Cv3lN/

If I look at the price/50 wma multiple there is a really good argument this is just getting started. We have seen diminishing returns for this but imo this goes quite a bit higher soon https://www.tradingview.com/x/17vUMzee/ even if we assume the 50wma keeps marching up as it has in the past 2 years with a top in oct the 50 wma would be 116 and with a small multiple of 1.5 that is a top of 172k min.

This ratio still isn’t above 1 SD even https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unrealised/mvrv_sth/mvrv_sth_light.html

looking at the regular mvrv pricing bands btc has entered the caution zone now. This usually continues to rise as price does however. The real concern is if the mvrv ratios taps 3.7. that would be a price of 135k at current levels. That is still a ways away. https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/pricing/pricing_mvrv_bands/pricing_mvrv_bands_light.html in 2017 the realized price rose from 560 at the time of ath breakout to 4500 at the cycle top. That’s an 8x increase. In 2021 the realized price was 6300 at the time of the 12k break and it rose to 18.8k at the cycle top. That is an increase of 3x. an increase in the realized price this cycle would bring it to 110k. using an mvrv of 3.7 that would take price of 405k. assuming only an extrapolation of the last 2 years in realized price until oct would mean going up 1.5x. to 55k. assuming an mvrv multiple of 3.7 would take price to 202k.

Ethusd… still looks good. Price firmly above all moving averages now. Really just the big resistance at 4k is left. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Rob5sxRi/ dec 6th important date for ethusd https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZUnKNi0S/

Ethbtc bounce off the bull div. I think there is a pretty good chance this has bottomed. Look at pa from past decemebers https://www.tradingview.com/x/O2AT0QAH/ ethbtc bottomed on Christmas last two cycles https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZUnKNi0S/

Btc.d still in the channel https://www.tradingview.com/x/QwV0YIKe/ when the bottom green line breaks is when alt season starts

Overall thoughts. Another good week. 100k resistance is strong. Imo we will break it on the next attempt whenever that is. Anecdotally I am still seeing a decent amount of bearishness/anxiety in my chats and timeline. This is a good thing. Markets top on euphoria not doubt. Somewhere between hope and optimism is my guess on the wall st cheat sheet. Doesn’t seem if margin has gotten excessive at all yet. Eth and ethbtc look good. Coming into very good seasonality for them. Wouldn’t be surprised for eth to break ath early jan and run from there. Yields and the dollar look a bit toppy to me. If so, should be a tailwind.

The best trait anyone can have is curiosity and critical thinking. Cheers to my fellow plebs who share those and are on #nostr early!

The fact that the gov convinced the population that seed oils were healthy and saturated fats aren’t was one of the most detrimental things to public health ever. Kind of insane. Def doesn’t pass the sniff test

Funny bc people selling knowing 100k is psychological resistance. Did these folks not know what happened at 10, 100, 1k, and 10k?

I woke up before 5 bc I have a shit cold and can’t breath very well. It’s 730 and my family is still sleeping. Ask me anything…

A lot of tradfi tears

A gap to 110 would be hilarious come Monday

Yes my conscious is clean. My immediate family has enough btc and most friends are along for the ride. Best I could do

Thanks for the suggestions

Yes prob one of my fav series of the last ten years

I didn’t like it. I kept waiting for it to pick up and it never did. Seen severance?