What’s the Difference Between the CPI and PCE?
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The article explains the difference between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). The CPI is the most mainstream measure of consumer price changes, while the PCE is the index used by the Federal Reserve to make decisions on interest rates. The CPI and PCE can paint different pictures of inflation pressures, with the CPI generally running about 0.4 percentage points higher than the PCE. The differences between the two indexes are due to variations in formulas, components, weights, and the scope of each index. The PCE is considered more comprehensive and flexible in reflecting price pressures, while the CPI is more closely aligned with consumers' out-of-pocket spending. The PCE includes a broader subset of goods and services prices and accounts for consumer substitution more frequently. The CPI, on the other hand, includes only out-of-pocket spending made directly by consumers and does not account for health insurance expenses made on behalf of employees. Both indexes have their merits, but the PCE is favored by most price analysts. The article concludes by stating that investors should pay attention to both indexes, as unexpected CPI data can strongly impact financial markets.
https://www.morningstar.com/markets/whats-difference-between-cpi-pce
Jobs for the Future Awarded $14.5M to Advance Economic Mobility for People with Records
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Jobs for the Future (JFF), a national nonprofit, has been awarded $14.5 million from the Justice and Mobility Fund to advance economic mobility for people with conviction and arrest records. The funding will be used to promote education, training, and fair chance employment for individuals with records. JFF aims to create pathways for people impacted by the legal system by expanding talent development pipelines, partnering with employers to implement fair chance hiring practices, and influencing federal and state policies. The grant is the second significant gift from the Justice and Mobility Fund to JFF's Center for Justice & Economic Advancement. JFF's initiatives include the Fair Chance Corporate Cohort, an employer training program, the Normalizing Education Resource Center, which provides tools and guides for postsecondary education in prison programs, and the Normalizing Opportunity advocacy campaign. The goal is to place 75 million people facing systemic barriers to employment in quality jobs. The Justice and Mobility Fund is a collaboration launched by The Ford Foundation and Blue Meridian Partners with support from the Charles and Lynn Schusterman Family Philanthropies.
Jobs for the Future Awarded $14.5M to Advance Economic Mobility for People with Records
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Jobs for the Future (JFF), a national nonprofit, has been awarded $14.5 million from the Justice and Mobility Fund to advance economic mobility for people with conviction and arrest records. The funding will be used to promote education, training, and fair chance employment for individuals with records. JFF aims to create pathways for people impacted by the legal system by expanding talent development pipelines, partnering with employers to implement fair chance hiring practices, and influencing federal and state policies. The grant is the second significant gift from the Justice and Mobility Fund to JFF's Center for Justice & Economic Advancement. JFF's initiatives include the Fair Chance Corporate Cohort, an employer training program, the Normalizing Education Resource Center, which provides tools and guides for postsecondary education in prison programs, and the Normalizing Opportunity advocacy campaign. The goal is to place 75 million people facing systemic barriers to employment in quality jobs. The Justice and Mobility Fund is a collaboration launched by The Ford Foundation and Blue Meridian Partners with support from the Charles and Lynn Schusterman Family Philanthropies.
Wells Fargo to Announce First Quarter 2024 Earnings on April 12, 2024
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Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) will report its first quarter 2024 earnings results on Friday, April 12, 2024, at approximately 7:00 a.m. Eastern time. The results will be available online at https://www.wellsfargo.com/about/investor-relations/quarterly-earnings/. The company will host a live conference call on April 12 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time. A replay of the conference call will be available from approximately 1:00 p.m. Eastern time on April 12 through Friday, April 26. Wells Fargo & Company is a leading financial services company with approximately $1.9 trillion in assets. It provides a diversified set of banking, investment, and mortgage products and services. Wells Fargo ranked No. 47 on Fortune’s 2023 rankings of America’s largest corporations.
#WellsFargo #Earnings #FinancialServices #ConferenceCall
Options traders see rising risk of Fed rate hike following oil rally, solid U.S. data
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Options traders are seeing a rising risk of a Federal Reserve rate hike following an oil rally and solid U.S. economic data. Barclays strategists note that rates markets are now positioned for the possibility of fewer rate cuts than the three quarter-percentage point reductions projected by the Fed. The options market also sees a higher chance that short-term borrowing costs will be higher by year-end than the current level between 5.25% and 5.5%. This suggests that parts of the financial market are preparing for the possibility that the Fed's rate-cut projections may be off and that policymakers might need to hike rates again by December. Signs of persistent U.S. inflation in recent data have also contributed to this view. Oil futures have been on a four-day rally, while Treasury yields have reached their highest levels since November. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has closed lower for the third straight session.
#OptionsTraders #FederalReserve #RateHike #OilRally #UsEconomicData
Long-term Treasury yields end near November highs after Fed's Powell delivers economic outlook
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Long-term Treasury yields end near November highs after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank has time to let the data guide its interest-rate policy. The yield on the 2-year Treasury slipped 2 basis points to 4.679%, from 4.699% on Tuesday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at 4.354%, versus 4.363% on Tuesday. The yield on the 30-year Treasury was also little changed at 4.509%, versus 4.508% on Tuesday. Powell repeated his view that it's too soon to say whether recent higher-than-expected inflation is more than just a bump in the road and that there is no rush to cut interest rates. Private-sector hiring was strong in March, with American businesses adding 184,000 new jobs, the biggest jump in hiring since July. The chance of a 25-basis-point cut from the Federal Reserve by June is at 61.7%.
#TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #JeromePowell #InterestRates #Inflation #PrivatesectorHiring #AmericanBusinesses #FederalReserveRateCut
U.S. economy expanded in March at slightly slower speed, ISM shows
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The Institute for Supply Management's survey shows that the U.S. economy expanded in March at a slightly slower speed. The ISM services index dipped to a three-month low of 51.4%, down from 52.6% in the prior month. Economists had predicted an ISM reading of 52.7%. Numbers over 50% are viewed as positive for the economy. The economy has largely shrugged off the highest interest rates in 23 years and is growing at an above-average speed. The economy could get more fuel to expand this year due to low unemployment, steady hiring, and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will trim interest rates. In early Monday trades, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were barely changed following sharp losses on Tuesday.
#UsEconomy #IsmServicesIndex #BusinessConditions #Expansion #InterestRates #Unemployment #Hiring #FederalReserve #DowJonesIndustrialAverage #S&p500
U.S. economy expanded in March at slightly slower speed, ISM shows
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The Institute for Supply Management's survey shows that the U.S. economy expanded in March at a slightly slower speed. The ISM services index dipped to a three-month low of 51.4%, down from 52.6% in the prior month. Economists had predicted an ISM reading of 52.7%. Numbers over 50% are viewed as positive for the economy. The economy has largely shrugged off the highest interest rates in 23 years and is growing at an above-average speed. The economy could get more fuel to expand this year due to low unemployment, steady hiring, and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will trim interest rates. In early Monday trades, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were barely changed following sharp losses on Tuesday.
#UsEconomy #IsmServicesIndex #BusinessConditions #Expansion #InterestRates #Unemployment #Hiring #FederalReserve #DowJonesIndustrialAverage #S&p500
News Highlights: Top Company News of the Day - Sunday at 11 PM ET
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Early clues emerge on Senate's plans for TikTok; Some US tech giants turn to Mexico for AI gear production; 'Godzilla x Kong' tops expectations with $80 million opening weekend; AT&T resets 7.6 million customers' passcodes after data breach; Discord to start showing ads for gamers; Peter Thiel-backed AI startup, Cognition Labs, seeks $2 billion valuation; OpenAI announces technology to re-create human voices; Tupperware delays filing annual results due to accountant shortage; Huawei's profit doubles after bouncing back from US sanctions; Tesla's quarter falls below consensus; Dow Jones Newswires ends with market update.
Inflation is heading higher again. Is it a 'bump' in the road or something more?
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The article discusses the recent increase in inflation and its potential impact on U.S. interest rates. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expects inflation to continue to slow, but acknowledges there may be 'bumps' on the road to the Fed's goal of 2% annual inflation. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 0.3% in February following a 0.4% gain in January. Some economists and senior Fed officials believe inflation will have to slow further before the central bank cuts rates. Wall Street is betting on a rate cut in June, but July or later is also possible. The strength of the U.S. economy, including consumer spending and GDP growth, is a factor in the decision-making process. The March employment report is expected to show another solid increase in hiring. Despite concerns about inflation, the economy remains sturdy and a recession is not currently anticipated. Top Wall Street economists forecast steady U.S. growth in 2024 and believe the Fed will cut interest rates three times this year. The next consumer-price index will be released on April 10.
#Inflation #InterestRates #FederalReserve #UsEconomy
European Midday Briefing: Stocks Struggle as Inflation Data Awaited
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European stocks moved into positive territory on Wednesday after a survey showed confidence in the eurozone economy ticked up in March. Gains for stocks were tentative as investors await inflation data from the U.S. and eurozone to determine central banks' interest-rate path. Jefferies cut its rating on BMW stock to hold from buy, citing the industry's technology transition and reduced earnings cyclicality. Stock futures gained and bond yields were little changed on Wednesday. GameStop reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue that missed estimates. The dollar has been edging higher recently, helped by prospects of the Fed keeping interest rates high for longer. Front-end eurozone government bonds are now too cheap, with the market a little too conservative in its European Central Bank rate-cutting cycle scenario. UBS Group and Apollo Global Management agreed to take the final step in the carveout of Credit Suisse's former securitized products business. Swedish fashion retailer Hennes & Mauritz posted forecast-beating earnings. DS Smith is in talks with International Paper regarding an all-share takeover proposal. Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury said Boeing's problems were bad for the industry as a whole. Sweden's central bank held its key policy rate at 4.0% and said that rate cuts could start in May or June. New forecasts point to a return to expansion for Ireland's economy. Crude futures traded lower following reports that U.S. stockpiles rose by 9.3 million barrels. Base metals were lower, with gold trading in a narrow band. Iron ore prices fell under $105/ton this week on concerns around Chinese steel demand. UBS, Apollo completed the carveout of Credit Suisse's former securitized products business. Hennes & Mauritz posted forecast-beating earnings. DS Smith is in talks with International Paper regarding an all-share takeover proposal. Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury said Boeing's problems were bad for the industry as a whole. Sweden's central bank held its key policy rate at 4.0% and said that rate cuts could start in May or June. New forecasts point to a return to expansion for Ireland's economy.
#Stocks #InflationData #Bmw #Gamestop #Dollar #EurozoneGovernmentBonds #Ubs #Apollo #CreditSuisse #Hennes&Mauritz #DsSmith #Airbus #Riksbank #Ireland'sEconomy #CrudeFutures #BaseMetals #IronOrePrices
U.S. Economy Brightened in February — Chicago Fed
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The U.S. economy showed signs of improvement in February, according to the Chicago Fed. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to 0.05 in February from -0.54 in January. All four categories covered by the index improved, with three making a positive contribution. Production, sales, orders and inventories, and employment all turned slightly positive. Personal consumption and housing made a neutral contribution. However, the index's three-month moving average suggested more subdued activity. The CFNAI diffusion index, which measures the spread of change in the monthly index over three months, fell to -0.09. Economic expansion is historically associated with values of the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35.
European Midday Briefing: Focus Remains on Interest Rates, Inflation
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European stocks mostly drifted lower as traders assess the outlook for interest rates and inflation. Danske Bank Research expects three interest-rate cuts from the European Central Bank this year, but recent data suggests a growing possibility of fewer cuts. Entain shares have fallen 20% year-to-date, and the absence of a permanent CEO creates a muted sentiment. Stock futures edged lower, while Treasury yields were roughly flat. The dollar rose and could stay high for now, but the prospects of forthcoming Fed rate cuts should cause the currency to fall in the second quarter. UBS Global Wealth Management said major currencies could continue to stick within recent ranges as central banks look set to cut interest rates. Citi Research expects sterling to weaken against the dollar due to the prospect that the Bank of England could cut interest rates earlier than previously expected. Oil futures were higher on signs of tightness in the market and growing geopolitical concerns. Base metals and gold rose. Kingfisher backed medium-term guidance for its French business as it outlined plans to simplify its organization in the country. MTN Group backed its medium-term targets despite warning of increased headwinds after a sharp drop in earnings. The stock market is calmer than it has been in years. Donald Trump has been trying to avoid paying a $454 million civil judgment against him for fraud in New York. Israeli forces are fighting in a growing number of places in the Gaza Strip. Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed American warnings of an imminent terrorist attack. A recent security sweep inside a sprawling fenced refugee camp holding 44,000 people turned up a raft of weapons, dozens of Islamic State militants, and a Yazidi woman who had been held by the group for nearly 10 years.
#InterestRates #Inflation #Stocks #Currencies #Oil #BaseMetals #Gold #Kingfisher #MtnGroup #DonaldTrump #GazaStrip #VladimirPutin #IslamicState