GM Nostr 🧡💜
#zapathon #bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #zap #pleb nostr:note1l53dt4fhr4ejc8dut9gnqmuxa79hxnvugz7k9a4pyekf3yec8gas904w80
GN!!
Maybe tomorrow 21🧡
#zapathon #bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #zap #pleb #goodnight 
Working on Zwolle Bitcoinstad!🧡
#zapathon #bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #zap #zwollebitcoinstad #pleb 
Received the same message a while ago. I can still earn some sats and also earn the in game sats without giving away my phone number.
Just ffs stay humble & stack says!
GM / good afternoon or good evening Nostr💙🧡
#zapathon #bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #zap #memes #pleb 
The energy narrative around Bitcoin is a fascinating one, isn't it? So much negative news and yelling and yet so much opportunity and net positive impact.
Unfortunately, many financial influencers with a lot of following, mainstream media but also politicians are still citing and using the dishonest thesis of Alex de Vries aka. Digiconomist.
I am happy the narrative is shifting a bit.
Turns out the claim "Bitcoin energy usage is comparable to the global energy use of tumble dryers" is wrong. It's comparable to tumble dryers in the US. Source: Cambridge
Cambridge revised down Bitcoin energy estimates. I quote Daniel Batten:
"Key points:
1. CCAF model overestimated by 16.8% in 2021, and 10.2% in 2022. This is in alignment with my previous research where I suggested earlier this year that their model was overestimating by 20.6% https://batcoinz.com/improving-our-estimate-of-bitcoin-energy-consumption/…
2. Clear evidence that GreenpeaceUSA's claim that Bitcoin used "as much energy as Sweden" was incorrect, and was based on CCAF historical overstatements
3. CCAF says explicitly that based on new estimates: Bitcoin energy use is "comparable to ... tumble dryers in the US"
4. CCAF has not yet revised its emissions estimates beyond the direct impact of revised energy consumption.
5. They are still overestimating emissions by 67.6% due to emission intensity calculations that are both overestimated, and out-of-date (have not been updated since Jan 2022). This is an improvement upon the previous estimates which were out 106% (https://batcoinz.com/accurately-dynamically-calculating-bitcoin-network-emissions/…)
6. Re: 5 above, CCAF acknowledges: "Emerging concepts we have yet to consider but could reasonably be expected to lower our emission estimates include the potential to mitigate methane emissions by mining operations collocating next to oil fields and utilizing otherwise flared natural gas, using and subsequently sealing orphaned gas wells, and mitigating methane emissions from landfills, but also extend to other novel concepts such as waste-heat recovery.
7. While there is still much work to do on the emissions estimate side, CCAF should be praised for updating their model, which is now very much in line with what those with up-to-date industry data such as Luxor, Marathon, Blockware, Coinmetrics, the Bitcoin Mining council and I have been using for some time. They also deserve praise for their transparency about historical overestimations, and transparency about the factors not yet considered that could "reasonably be expected to lower our emission estimates". I agree: 57 M t CO2e/year will reduce to a figure more like my model which says 34 Mt CO2e/year once the impact of off-grid miners and methane mitigation is factored in.
8. Key details from the CCAF report Full report: https://jbs.cam.ac.uk/2023/bitcoin-electricity-consumption/
"The backbone of our previous CBECI methodology was the assumption that every profitable hardware model released less than 5 years ago equally fuelled the total network hashrate. This, however, led to a disproportionally large number of older devices compared to newer ones in our assumed hardware distribution"
…we decided to thoroughly re-examine the ASIC mining hardware distribution generated by our previous CBECI model and cross-check the results against other metrics from publicly available data. We found that more recently released equipment appeared to be underrepresented, and equipment nearing the end of its lifecycle was overrepresented.
…we will explore the consequences of these changes when applied retroactively. The first and most noticeable discrepancy appears in 2021, where our previous CBECI model estimated an electricity consumption of 104.0 TWh, 15.0 TWh higher than the revised model estimate (89.0 TWh). The 2022 estimate was adjusted downward by 9.8 TWh, from 105.3 TWh to 95.5 TWh. To put this in perspective, the revised figure is comparable to the electricity consumption of countries like Belgium (83 TWh) or the Netherlands (113 TWh), [31] the energy use of tumble dryers in the US (108 TWh)
Emerging concepts we have yet to consider but could reasonably be expected to lower our emission estimates include the potential to mitigate methane emissions by mining operations collocating next to oil fields and utilizing otherwise flared natural gas, [32] using and subsequently sealing orphaned gas wells, [33] and mitigating methane emissions from landfills, [34] but also extend to other novel concepts such as waste-heat recovery. [35]"
Source: https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/2023/bitcoin-electricity-consumption/
& Daniel Batten (Twitter)
Narrative is shifting!
#zapathon #bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #zap #memes #pleb #bitcoinenergyfud 
Turns out the claim "Bitcoin energy usage is comparable to the global energy use of tumble dryers" is wrong. It's comparable to tumble dryers in the US. Source: Cambridge
Cambridge revised down Bitcoin energy estimates. I quote Daniel Batten:
"Key points:
1. CCAF model overestimated by 16.8% in 2021, and 10.2% in 2022. This is in alignment with my previous research where I suggested earlier this year that their model was overestimating by 20.6% https://batcoinz.com/improving-our-estimate-of-bitcoin-energy-consumption/…
2. Clear evidence that GreenpeaceUSA's claim that Bitcoin used "as much energy as Sweden" was incorrect, and was based on CCAF historical overstatements
3. CCAF says explicitly that based on new estimates: Bitcoin energy use is "comparable to ... tumble dryers in the US"
4. CCAF has not yet revised its emissions estimates beyond the direct impact of revised energy consumption.
5. They are still overestimating emissions by 67.6% due to emission intensity calculations that are both overestimated, and out-of-date (have not been updated since Jan 2022). This is an improvement upon the previous estimates which were out 106% (https://batcoinz.com/accurately-dynamically-calculating-bitcoin-network-emissions/…)
6. Re: 5 above, CCAF acknowledges: "Emerging concepts we have yet to consider but could reasonably be expected to lower our emission estimates include the potential to mitigate methane emissions by mining operations collocating next to oil fields and utilizing otherwise flared natural gas, using and subsequently sealing orphaned gas wells, and mitigating methane emissions from landfills, but also extend to other novel concepts such as waste-heat recovery.
7. While there is still much work to do on the emissions estimate side, CCAF should be praised for updating their model, which is now very much in line with what those with up-to-date industry data such as Luxor, Marathon, Blockware, Coinmetrics, the Bitcoin Mining council and I have been using for some time. They also deserve praise for their transparency about historical overestimations, and transparency about the factors not yet considered that could "reasonably be expected to lower our emission estimates". I agree: 57 M t CO2e/year will reduce to a figure more like my model which says 34 Mt CO2e/year once the impact of off-grid miners and methane mitigation is factored in.
8. Key details from the CCAF report Full report: https://jbs.cam.ac.uk/2023/bitcoin-electricity-consumption/
"The backbone of our previous CBECI methodology was the assumption that every profitable hardware model released less than 5 years ago equally fuelled the total network hashrate. This, however, led to a disproportionally large number of older devices compared to newer ones in our assumed hardware distribution"
…we decided to thoroughly re-examine the ASIC mining hardware distribution generated by our previous CBECI model and cross-check the results against other metrics from publicly available data. We found that more recently released equipment appeared to be underrepresented, and equipment nearing the end of its lifecycle was overrepresented.
…we will explore the consequences of these changes when applied retroactively. The first and most noticeable discrepancy appears in 2021, where our previous CBECI model estimated an electricity consumption of 104.0 TWh, 15.0 TWh higher than the revised model estimate (89.0 TWh). The 2022 estimate was adjusted downward by 9.8 TWh, from 105.3 TWh to 95.5 TWh. To put this in perspective, the revised figure is comparable to the electricity consumption of countries like Belgium (83 TWh) or the Netherlands (113 TWh), [31] the energy use of tumble dryers in the US (108 TWh)
Emerging concepts we have yet to consider but could reasonably be expected to lower our emission estimates include the potential to mitigate methane emissions by mining operations collocating next to oil fields and utilizing otherwise flared natural gas, [32] using and subsequently sealing orphaned gas wells, [33] and mitigating methane emissions from landfills, [34] but also extend to other novel concepts such as waste-heat recovery. [35]"
Source: https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/2023/bitcoin-electricity-consumption/
& Daniel Batten (Twitter)
Narrative is shifting!
#zapathon #bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #zap #memes #pleb #bitcoinenergyfud
GM #Nostr💜🧡
Credit nostr:npub1ph8u4tpadanedaauxq986rfmwxadz3tlfe4h97w0fy8pu4tk00jqfup7dv
#zapathon #bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #zap #art #memes #pleb 
World debt has rapidly increased since 1997.
(Please study the Asia crisis and the ramifications - click on the link)
And is now around $225 trillion.
Again, this is not sustainable.
https://www.thebalancemoney.com/what-was-the-asian-financial-crisis-1978997 
🧠Quote of the week:
"Bitcoin is the best-performing asset in the history of humankind.
Bitcoin is the 13th most valuable asset on Earth out of thousands.
Bitcoin is the 20th most valuable currency in the world out of 200.
Bitcoin is the most valuable financial item on the planet.
Bitcoin is the most secure network in the entire galaxy.
Bitcoin has accomplished all of these things before its 14th birthday, and yet to some, Bitcoin has failed.
What planet do these people come from, and what is the weather like there? I'm curious."
-Oliver Velez
🧡Bitcoin news:
➡️ Wallets with more than 10 Bitcoin are now at a 3-year high of 157,352.
➡️ Bitcoin hash rate is going absolutely parabolic, smashing through 400TH/s & and another ATH.
Longest bear market ever and yet the hash rate of Bitcoin has never been higher. I’d say that’s a great sign
➡️ 800,000 Bitcoin (over $20B) has been pulled from exchanges in the last three years. And for the first time in history, Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges have surpassed deposits for three consecutive months. Investors are learning that not your keys, not your 'cheese'. Self-custody is on the rise.
➡️Bitcoin balance on exchanges just reached a 5-year low of 2,238,653 Bitcoin
I quote Joe Burnett: "Outsiders think it's crazy that ~70% of Bitcoin holders don't touch their coins even after the price of BTC has fallen 70%-80%. However, holders recognize they possess the only immutably scarce commodity known to man. And it's becoming 2x more scarce in ~ 8 months."
➡️ On the 28th of August, nine years ago today, Hal Finney passed away. Hal was a pioneer, cypherpunk, and was the first person to receive a Bitcoin transaction from Satoshi Nakamoto. He gave us PGP encryption, reusable proof of work, and support for Bitcoin when the project needed it the most. RIP to the cypherpunk and the man who tested the first-ever Bitcoin transaction. His contribution to the network can never be discounted and shall remain eternal.
➡️ Bitcoin mining startup Nodal Power raises $13M to turn trash into BTC. Nodal Power, a company that develops and operates landfill gas to energy power plants, today announced that it has raised a $13 million seed round to aggressively mitigate methane emissions at landfills.
Yes, you read that right. Converting waste -> energy -> globally decentralized digital money. This is just the beginning…
➡️ U.S. Appeals Court rules SEC wrongly rejected Grayscale spot Bitcoin ETF. That does not mean that GBTC is automatically converting into an ETF however.
“ETF approval could open the floodgates and allow the everyday investor get Bitcoin in their brokerage accounts”
Bloomberg analysts have increased their odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved this year from 65% to 75%. They put the odds of it being approved by the end of 2024 at 95%. Meanwhile, the SEC decided to delay their decision on the Wisdom Tree, Invesco, Galaxy, and Valkyrie spot Bitcoin ETFs for another 45 days. BlackRock / IShares spot ETF delayed. The next deadline has been pushed to 10-17-23. If it gets kicked again (which is expected), we won’t see it until 2024 at the earliest.
Anyway, Blackrock is a shareholder in 4 out of the 5 largest public Bitcoin miners. That's all you need to know.
I quote @preston : "I’m convinced Blackrock won’t green-light the SEC (you read that correctly) to approve the BTC ETF until Binance is destroyed or so insanely crippled that its market dominance is done. Gary is Larry Fink‘s lap dog"
I couldn't agree more.
➡️Roughly 20% of all Bitcoin in circulating supply is held by investors who have 10 Bitcoin or less. Does adoption from this cohort look like it's slowing down or getting faster? Does it signal a potential shift towards a more decentralized wealth distribution?
➡️ So far in 2023, Bitcoin has hit new ATH in the following currencies:
Argentine Peso (ARS) - 10.2M Pesos on 14th Aug.
Turkish Lira (TRY) - 820K Lira on 19th July.
Lebanese Pound (LBP) - 480M Pounds on 13th July
Venezuelan Bolivar (VES) - 920K bol. on 15th Aug
Please remember, It’s not Bitcoin going up; it’s the others going down!
➡️ Cambridge revised down Bitcoin energy estimates. In the upcoming days, I will write a post on this topic with more insights. But basically what we have seen in the last 3months is that the narrative around Bitcoin & and Eneryg is shifting:
- Cambridge admits Bitcoin energy calculations overstated
- 2 academic papers (incl. MIT) state the environmental benefits of Bitcoin
- KPMG reports Bitcoin has a positive ESG rating
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
🏦Banks:
👉🏽"Current unrealized losses in the US banking system is -$1.8 trillion out of only $2.2 trillion capital. With corporate taxes due Sep 15 & possible gov shutdown Oct 2, the general public has no idea the banks are already insolvent entering a nightmare liquidity scenario in October" source: Dr. Roubini.
As mentioned in one of my stories last week, Roubini can be a bit of Dr. Doom and Gloom.
Still, if you connect the above with the FED's BTFP it is maybe not that Doom and Gloom, but a possible reality.
👉🏽"Emergency loans at the Fed's BTFP have hit a new high of $107.52 billion. Usage hasn't risen for 12 weeks. Why? Regional banks are dumping consumer loans to shore up losses instead of using BTFP. Packaging loans into ABS, and selling them—which now yield their highest since 2008." Joe Consorti
"Total emergency loans from the Fed's BTFP facility have hit a new high of $107.39 billion. Banks' losses on impaired US Treasuries continue being papered over." -Joe Consorti
If you have no clue what the BTFP is?
Short version: It is just kicking the can down the road. Or read the explanation in last week’s Weekly Recap.
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽 According to the Fed's own "best indicator" the probability of a recession is at its highest level since the 1980s. The interesting part is that the "Soft landing" narrative is now the consensus. This also happened in 2000 and 2006. Both instances ended up in severe recessions. While it's always a possibility, trading with the objective of time a recession timing is not worth it. The market tends to have many fakeouts before a macro recession happens.
👉🏽"US National Debt has now increased by $1.45 trillion since the debt ceiling was suspended 3 months ago and is fast approaching $33 trillion. In the past five years, the national debt has increased by 53%, from $21.4 trillion to $32.9 trillion."
Infinite Supply vs. Engineered Scarcity
Choose wisely.
👉🏽 7 stocks are propping up the entire stock market. Three weeks ago, 7 S&P 500 stocks were up +70% YTD. These 7 stocks, a handful of technology stocks, accounted for 75% of the ENTIRE Nasdaq's gains this year. Meanwhile, the other 493 rose only 4%. Can that be sustainable? Even with recent volatility, technology stocks are still holding up the entire market. Markets are betting on AI and they are all-in.
👉🏽Germany's inflation dropped to 6.1% while Core inflation stagnated at 5.5%. The unemployment rate in Germany has risen to 5.8%, the highest level since May 2021. So Germany's unemployment rate is rising and inflation is rising in Germany too! What do you call that? S T A G F L A T I O N
"In economics, stagflation or recession-inflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high or increasing, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. It presents a dilemma for economic policy, since actions intended to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment."
👉🏽Eurozone inflation remained stuck at 5.3% in August, higher than the 5.1% that economists expected. Core inflation, which excl volatile energy, food, alcohol & and tobacco prices & closely watched by the ECB as a measure of underlying inflation, slows to 5.3% in August from 5.5% in July, matching expectations.
Excluding energy, Eurozone CPI rose 6.3% YoY. Energy is the only component where YoY inflation was negative. Food inflation is still stubbornly high, around 10% (processed food 10.4%; unprocessed food 7.8%). Services inflation is still rising at 5.5% YoY. This means that currently, energy is negative, once it goes positive, CPI moons higher.
Sticky inflation will cause further rate hikes, which will not bring down inflation or employment fast enough, prolonging the battle and making for a rough, elongated stagflation cycle.
🇺🇸Now let's have a look at some U.S. data:
👉🏽"The US jobs market continues to slow. The unemployment rate jumped to 3.8% as household surveys showed the number of unemployed people up 514k. The establishment survey added 187k jobs, a bit better than 170k expected, BUT employment in June and July was revised down by 110k in aggregate. Monthly wage growth slowed to 0.2% from 0.4%. Markets interpret data as dovish. 2y yields plunge 7bps to 4.78%." Holger Zschaepitz
👉🏽 US job openings are at 8.827 million, the lowest level since September 2021.
👉🏽45% of student loan borrowers expect to go delinquent when payments resume on October 1st.
There is $1.569 trillion in federal student loan debt. What happens if these 45% of student borrowers can’t pay down their loans? - Joe Consorti
Great read on this topic: https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/45-of-student-loan-borrowers-expect
👉🏽 "Personal spending growing 4x as fast as personal income... that means spending is propped up by debt, not assets"-Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co.
👉🏽 Delinquencies on auto loans, credit cards, and consumer loans just hit their highest levels since 2012. As both rates and prices rise rapidly, delinquency rates are skyrocketing. - The Kobeissi Letter
👉🏽 "July PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rises to 3.3%, in line with expectations of 3.3%. Core PCE inflation rises to 4.2%, in line with expectations of 4.2%. This is the second inflation metric that jumped in July." - The Kobeissie Letter
4.2% is more than double the Fed's target of 2% inflation. The rise in the US Core PCE Price Index YoY indicates that inflation is increasing, which could lead to higher interest rates and tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. The inflation battle continues.
Opt out: Bitcoin🧡
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: nostr:npub1sqzr42dj8vx32yd5jcvvl3ytux45kl0etgf6y2ymjvmd7lqmuwmqk9vk7vis especially suited for beginners or people that want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Is this post helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
#zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats 
🧠Quote of the week:
"Bitcoin is the best-performing asset in the history of humankind.
Bitcoin is the 13th most valuable asset on Earth out of thousands.
Bitcoin is the 20th most valuable currency in the world out of 200.
Bitcoin is the most valuable financial item on the planet.
Bitcoin is the most secure network in the entire galaxy.
Bitcoin has accomplished all of these things before its 14th birthday, and yet to some, Bitcoin has failed.
What planet do these people come from, and what is the weather like there? I'm curious."
-Oliver Velez
🧡Bitcoin news:
➡️ Wallets with more than 10 Bitcoin are now at a 3-year high of 157,352.
➡️ Bitcoin hash rate is going absolutely parabolic, smashing through 400TH/s & and another ATH.
Longest bear market ever and yet the hash rate of Bitcoin has never been higher. I’d say that’s a great sign
➡️ 800,000 Bitcoin (over $20B) has been pulled from exchanges in the last three years. And for the first time in history, Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges have surpassed deposits for three consecutive months. Investors are learning that not your keys, not your 'cheese'. Self-custody is on the rise.
➡️Bitcoin balance on exchanges just reached a 5-year low of 2,238,653 Bitcoin
I quote Joe Burnett: "Outsiders think it's crazy that ~70% of Bitcoin holders don't touch their coins even after the price of BTC has fallen 70%-80%. However, holders recognize they possess the only immutably scarce commodity known to man. And it's becoming 2x more scarce in ~ 8 months."
➡️ On the 28th of August, nine years ago today, Hal Finney passed away. Hal was a pioneer, cypherpunk, and was the first person to receive a Bitcoin transaction from Satoshi Nakamoto. He gave us PGP encryption, reusable proof of work, and support for Bitcoin when the project needed it the most. RIP to the cypherpunk and the man who tested the first-ever Bitcoin transaction. His contribution to the network can never be discounted and shall remain eternal.
➡️ Bitcoin mining startup Nodal Power raises $13M to turn trash into BTC. Nodal Power, a company that develops and operates landfill gas to energy power plants, today announced that it has raised a $13 million seed round to aggressively mitigate methane emissions at landfills.
Yes, you read that right. Converting waste -> energy -> globally decentralized digital money. This is just the beginning…
➡️ U.S. Appeals Court rules SEC wrongly rejected Grayscale spot Bitcoin ETF. That does not mean that GBTC is automatically converting into an ETF however.
“ETF approval could open the floodgates and allow the everyday investor get Bitcoin in their brokerage accounts”
Bloomberg analysts have increased their odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved this year from 65% to 75%. They put the odds of it being approved by the end of 2024 at 95%. Meanwhile, the SEC decided to delay their decision on the Wisdom Tree, Invesco, Galaxy, and Valkyrie spot Bitcoin ETFs for another 45 days. BlackRock / IShares spot ETF delayed. The next deadline has been pushed to 10-17-23. If it gets kicked again (which is expected), we won’t see it until 2024 at the earliest.
Anyway, Blackrock is a shareholder in 4 out of the 5 largest public Bitcoin miners. That's all you need to know.
I quote @preston : "I’m convinced Blackrock won’t green-light the SEC (you read that correctly) to approve the BTC ETF until Binance is destroyed or so insanely crippled that its market dominance is done. Gary is Larry Fink‘s lap dog"
I couldn't agree more.
➡️Roughly 20% of all Bitcoin in circulating supply is held by investors who have 10 Bitcoin or less. Does adoption from this cohort look like it's slowing down or getting faster? Does it signal a potential shift towards a more decentralized wealth distribution?
➡️ So far in 2023, Bitcoin has hit new ATH in the following currencies:
Argentine Peso (ARS) - 10.2M Pesos on 14th Aug.
Turkish Lira (TRY) - 820K Lira on 19th July.
Lebanese Pound (LBP) - 480M Pounds on 13th July
Venezuelan Bolivar (VES) - 920K bol. on 15th Aug
Please remember, It’s not Bitcoin going up; it’s the others going down!
➡️ Cambridge revised down Bitcoin energy estimates. In the upcoming days, I will write a post on this topic with more insights. But basically what we have seen in the last 3months is that the narrative around Bitcoin & and Eneryg is shifting:
- Cambridge admits Bitcoin energy calculations overstated
- 2 academic papers (incl. MIT) state the environmental benefits of Bitcoin
- KPMG reports Bitcoin has a positive ESG rating
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
🏦Banks:
👉🏽"Current unrealized losses in the US banking system is -$1.8 trillion out of only $2.2 trillion capital. With corporate taxes due Sep 15 & possible gov shutdown Oct 2, the general public has no idea the banks are already insolvent entering a nightmare liquidity scenario in October" source: Dr. Roubini.
As mentioned in one of my stories last week, Roubini can be a bit of Dr. Doom and Gloom.
Still, if you connect the above with the FED's BTFP it is maybe not that Doom and Gloom, but a possible reality.
👉🏽"Emergency loans at the Fed's BTFP have hit a new high of $107.52 billion. Usage hasn't risen for 12 weeks. Why? Regional banks are dumping consumer loans to shore up losses instead of using BTFP. Packaging loans into ABS, and selling them—which now yield their highest since 2008." Joe Consorti
"Total emergency loans from the Fed's BTFP facility have hit a new high of $107.39 billion. Banks' losses on impaired US Treasuries continue being papered over." -Joe Consorti
If you have no clue what the BTFP is?
Short version: It is just kicking the can down the road. Or read the explanation in last week’s Weekly Recap.
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽 According to the Fed's own "best indicator" the probability of a recession is at its highest level since the 1980s. The interesting part is that the "Soft landing" narrative is now the consensus. This also happened in 2000 and 2006. Both instances ended up in severe recessions. While it's always a possibility, trading with the objective of time a recession timing is not worth it. The market tends to have many fakeouts before a macro recession happens.
👉🏽"US National Debt has now increased by $1.45 trillion since the debt ceiling was suspended 3 months ago and is fast approaching $33 trillion. In the past five years, the national debt has increased by 53%, from $21.4 trillion to $32.9 trillion."
Infinite Supply vs. Engineered Scarcity
Choose wisely.
👉🏽 7 stocks are propping up the entire stock market. Three weeks ago, 7 S&P 500 stocks were up +70% YTD. These 7 stocks, a handful of technology stocks, accounted for 75% of the ENTIRE Nasdaq's gains this year. Meanwhile, the other 493 rose only 4%. Can that be sustainable? Even with recent volatility, technology stocks are still holding up the entire market. Markets are betting on AI and they are all-in.
👉🏽Germany's inflation dropped to 6.1% while Core inflation stagnated at 5.5%. The unemployment rate in Germany has risen to 5.8%, the highest level since May 2021. So Germany's unemployment rate is rising and inflation is rising in Germany too! What do you call that? S T A G F L A T I O N
"In economics, stagflation or recession-inflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high or increasing, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. It presents a dilemma for economic policy, since actions intended to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment."
👉🏽Eurozone inflation remained stuck at 5.3% in August, higher than the 5.1% that economists expected. Core inflation, which excl volatile energy, food, alcohol & and tobacco prices & closely watched by the ECB as a measure of underlying inflation, slows to 5.3% in August from 5.5% in July, matching expectations.
Excluding energy, Eurozone CPI rose 6.3% YoY. Energy is the only component where YoY inflation was negative. Food inflation is still stubbornly high, around 10% (processed food 10.4%; unprocessed food 7.8%). Services inflation is still rising at 5.5% YoY. This means that currently, energy is negative, once it goes positive, CPI moons higher.
Sticky inflation will cause further rate hikes, which will not bring down inflation or employment fast enough, prolonging the battle and making for a rough, elongated stagflation cycle.
🇺🇸Now let's have a look at some U.S. data:
👉🏽"The US jobs market continues to slow. The unemployment rate jumped to 3.8% as household surveys showed the number of unemployed people up 514k. The establishment survey added 187k jobs, a bit better than 170k expected, BUT employment in June and July was revised down by 110k in aggregate. Monthly wage growth slowed to 0.2% from 0.4%. Markets interpret data as dovish. 2y yields plunge 7bps to 4.78%." Holger Zschaepitz
👉🏽 US job openings are at 8.827 million, the lowest level since September 2021.
👉🏽45% of student loan borrowers expect to go delinquent when payments resume on October 1st.
There is $1.569 trillion in federal student loan debt. What happens if these 45% of student borrowers can’t pay down their loans? - Joe Consorti
Great read on this topic: https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/45-of-student-loan-borrowers-expect
👉🏽 "Personal spending growing 4x as fast as personal income... that means spending is propped up by debt, not assets"-Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co.
👉🏽 Delinquencies on auto loans, credit cards, and consumer loans just hit their highest levels since 2012. As both rates and prices rise rapidly, delinquency rates are skyrocketing. - The Kobeissi Letter
👉🏽 "July PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rises to 3.3%, in line with expectations of 3.3%. Core PCE inflation rises to 4.2%, in line with expectations of 4.2%. This is the second inflation metric that jumped in July." - The Kobeissie Letter
4.2% is more than double the Fed's target of 2% inflation. The rise in the US Core PCE Price Index YoY indicates that inflation is increasing, which could lead to higher interest rates and tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. The inflation battle continues.
Opt out: Bitcoin🧡
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: nostr:npub1sqzr42dj8vx32yd5jcvvl3ytux45kl0etgf6y2ymjvmd7lqmuwmqk9vk7vis especially suited for beginners or people that want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Is this post helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
#zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats
🧠Quote of the week:
"Bitcoin is the best-performing asset in the history of humankind.
Bitcoin is the 13th most valuable asset on Earth out of thousands.
Bitcoin is the 20th most valuable currency in the world out of 200.
Bitcoin is the most valuable financial item on the planet.
Bitcoin is the most secure network in the entire galaxy.
Bitcoin has accomplished all of these things before its 14th birthday, and yet to some, Bitcoin has failed.
What planet do these people come from, and what is the weather like there? I'm curious."
-Oliver Velez
🧡Bitcoin news:
➡️ Wallets with more than 10 Bitcoin are now at a 3-year high of 157,352.
➡️ Bitcoin hash rate is going absolutely parabolic, smashing through 400TH/s & and another ATH.
Longest bear market ever and yet the hash rate of Bitcoin has never been higher. I’d say that’s a great sign
➡️ 800,000 Bitcoin (over $20B) has been pulled from exchanges in the last three years. And for the first time in history, Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges have surpassed deposits for three consecutive months. Investors are learning that not your keys, not your 'cheese'. Self-custody is on the rise.
➡️Bitcoin balance on exchanges just reached a 5-year low of 2,238,653 Bitcoin
I quote Joe Burnett: "Outsiders think it's crazy that ~70% of Bitcoin holders don't touch their coins even after the price of BTC has fallen 70%-80%. However, holders recognize they possess the only immutably scarce commodity known to man. And it's becoming 2x more scarce in ~ 8 months."
➡️ On the 28th of August, nine years ago today, Hal Finney passed away. Hal was a pioneer, cypherpunk, and was the first person to receive a Bitcoin transaction from Satoshi Nakamoto. He gave us PGP encryption, reusable proof of work, and support for Bitcoin when the project needed it the most. RIP to the cypherpunk and the man who tested the first-ever Bitcoin transaction. His contribution to the network can never be discounted and shall remain eternal.
➡️ Bitcoin mining startup Nodal Power raises $13M to turn trash into BTC. Nodal Power, a company that develops and operates landfill gas to energy power plants, today announced that it has raised a $13 million seed round to aggressively mitigate methane emissions at landfills.
Yes, you read that right. Converting waste -> energy -> globally decentralized digital money. This is just the beginning…
➡️ U.S. Appeals Court rules SEC wrongly rejected Grayscale spot Bitcoin ETF. That does not mean that GBTC is automatically converting into an ETF however.
“ETF approval could open the floodgates and allow the everyday investor get Bitcoin in their brokerage accounts”
Bloomberg analysts have increased their odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved this year from 65% to 75%. They put the odds of it being approved by the end of 2024 at 95%. Meanwhile, the SEC decided to delay their decision on the Wisdom Tree, Invesco, Galaxy, and Valkyrie spot Bitcoin ETFs for another 45 days. BlackRock / IShares spot ETF delayed. The next deadline has been pushed to 10-17-23. If it gets kicked again (which is expected), we won’t see it until 2024 at the earliest.
Anyway, Blackrock is a shareholder in 4 out of the 5 largest public Bitcoin miners. That's all you need to know.
I quote @preston : "I’m convinced Blackrock won’t green-light the SEC (you read that correctly) to approve the BTC ETF until Binance is destroyed or so insanely crippled that its market dominance is done. Gary is Larry Fink‘s lap dog"
I couldn't agree more.
➡️Roughly 20% of all Bitcoin in circulating supply is held by investors who have 10 Bitcoin or less. Does adoption from this cohort look like it's slowing down or getting faster? Does it signal a potential shift towards a more decentralized wealth distribution?
➡️ So far in 2023, Bitcoin has hit new ATH in the following currencies:
Argentine Peso (ARS) - 10.2M Pesos on 14th Aug.
Turkish Lira (TRY) - 820K Lira on 19th July.
Lebanese Pound (LBP) - 480M Pounds on 13th July
Venezuelan Bolivar (VES) - 920K bol. on 15th Aug
Please remember, It’s not Bitcoin going up; it’s the others going down!
➡️ Cambridge revised down Bitcoin energy estimates. In the upcoming days, I will write a post on this topic with more insights. But basically what we have seen in the last 3months is that the narrative around Bitcoin & and Eneryg is shifting:
- Cambridge admits Bitcoin energy calculations overstated
- 2 academic papers (incl. MIT) state the environmental benefits of Bitcoin
- KPMG reports Bitcoin has a positive ESG rating
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
🏦Banks:
👉🏽"Current unrealized losses in the US banking system is -$1.8 trillion out of only $2.2 trillion capital. With corporate taxes due Sep 15 & possible gov shutdown Oct 2, the general public has no idea the banks are already insolvent entering a nightmare liquidity scenario in October" source: Dr. Roubini.
As mentioned in one of my stories last week, Roubini can be a bit of Dr. Doom and Gloom.
Still, if you connect the above with the FED's BTFP it is maybe not that Doom and Gloom, but a possible reality.
👉🏽"Emergency loans at the Fed's BTFP have hit a new high of $107.52 billion. Usage hasn't risen for 12 weeks. Why? Regional banks are dumping consumer loans to shore up losses instead of using BTFP. Packaging loans into ABS, and selling them—which now yield their highest since 2008." Joe Consorti
"Total emergency loans from the Fed's BTFP facility have hit a new high of $107.39 billion. Banks' losses on impaired US Treasuries continue being papered over." -Joe Consorti
If you have no clue what the BTFP is?
Short version: It is just kicking the can down the road. Or read the explanation in last week’s Weekly Recap.
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽 According to the Fed's own "best indicator" the probability of a recession is at its highest level since the 1980s. The interesting part is that the "Soft landing" narrative is now the consensus. This also happened in 2000 and 2006. Both instances ended up in severe recessions. While it's always a possibility, trading with the objective of time a recession timing is not worth it. The market tends to have many fakeouts before a macro recession happens.
👉🏽"US National Debt has now increased by $1.45 trillion since the debt ceiling was suspended 3 months ago and is fast approaching $33 trillion. In the past five years, the national debt has increased by 53%, from $21.4 trillion to $32.9 trillion."
Infinite Supply vs. Engineered Scarcity
Choose wisely.
👉🏽 7 stocks are propping up the entire stock market. Three weeks ago, 7 S&P 500 stocks were up +70% YTD. These 7 stocks, a handful of technology stocks, accounted for 75% of the ENTIRE Nasdaq's gains this year. Meanwhile, the other 493 rose only 4%. Can that be sustainable? Even with recent volatility, technology stocks are still holding up the entire market. Markets are betting on AI and they are all-in.
👉🏽Germany's inflation dropped to 6.1% while Core inflation stagnated at 5.5%. The unemployment rate in Germany has risen to 5.8%, the highest level since May 2021. So Germany's unemployment rate is rising and inflation is rising in Germany too! What do you call that? S T A G F L A T I O N
"In economics, stagflation or recession-inflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high or increasing, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. It presents a dilemma for economic policy, since actions intended to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment."
👉🏽Eurozone inflation remained stuck at 5.3% in August, higher than the 5.1% that economists expected. Core inflation, which excl volatile energy, food, alcohol & and tobacco prices & closely watched by the ECB as a measure of underlying inflation, slows to 5.3% in August from 5.5% in July, matching expectations.
Excluding energy, Eurozone CPI rose 6.3% YoY. Energy is the only component where YoY inflation was negative. Food inflation is still stubbornly high, around 10% (processed food 10.4%; unprocessed food 7.8%). Services inflation is still rising at 5.5% YoY. This means that currently, energy is negative, once it goes positive, CPI moons higher.
Sticky inflation will cause further rate hikes, which will not bring down inflation or employment fast enough, prolonging the battle and making for a rough, elongated stagflation cycle.
🇺🇸Now let's have a look at some U.S. data:
👉🏽"The US jobs market continues to slow. The unemployment rate jumped to 3.8% as household surveys showed the number of unemployed people up 514k. The establishment survey added 187k jobs, a bit better than 170k expected, BUT employment in June and July was revised down by 110k in aggregate. Monthly wage growth slowed to 0.2% from 0.4%. Markets interpret data as dovish. 2y yields plunge 7bps to 4.78%." Holger Zschaepitz
👉🏽 US job openings are at 8.827 million, the lowest level since September 2021.
👉🏽45% of student loan borrowers expect to go delinquent when payments resume on October 1st.
There is $1.569 trillion in federal student loan debt. What happens if these 45% of student borrowers can’t pay down their loans? - Joe Consorti
Great read on this topic: https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/45-of-student-loan-borrowers-expect
👉🏽 "Personal spending growing 4x as fast as personal income... that means spending is propped up by debt, not assets"-Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co.
👉🏽 Delinquencies on auto loans, credit cards, and consumer loans just hit their highest levels since 2012. As both rates and prices rise rapidly, delinquency rates are skyrocketing. - The Kobeissi Letter
👉🏽 "July PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rises to 3.3%, in line with expectations of 3.3%. Core PCE inflation rises to 4.2%, in line with expectations of 4.2%. This is the second inflation metric that jumped in July." - The Kobeissie Letter
4.2% is more than double the Fed's target of 2% inflation. The rise in the US Core PCE Price Index YoY indicates that inflation is increasing, which could lead to higher interest rates and tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. The inflation battle continues.
Opt out: Bitcoin🧡
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: nostr:npub1sqzr42dj8vx32yd5jcvvl3ytux45kl0etgf6y2ymjvmd7lqmuwmqk9vk7vis especially suited for beginners or people that want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Is this post helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
#zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats
Ah great,
dystopian hell hole.
What could possibly go wrong 🥴👀
And yes, that's why we Nostr!🧡💙 nostr:npub1s5yq6wadwrxde4lhfs56gn64hwzuhnfa6r9mj476r5s4hkunzgzqrs6q7z
#zapathon #bitcoin #nostr #plebchain #grownostr #zap #sovereign #pleb 