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SilverNeo
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Just a guy who did not care about politics until the world at least pretended to be normal.

yea was thinking the same just making sure as its 443 so good luck with that :)

yea was thinking the same just making sure as its 443 so good luck with that :)

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

One of the big macro questions is when will the US banking system run into the liquidity floor, requiring the Fed to end quantitative tightening? Due to current regulations and the "ample reserve" regime, banks generally have liquidity requirements relative to their overall size, and their overall size keeps growing nominally.

-Big banks ran into the liquidity floor in September 2019 at $1.5 trillion with the repo spike, and the Fed had to end quantitative tightening and resume mild quantitative easing (which was then overshadowed by the giga-liquidity-bazooka in 2020/2021).

-Smaller banks ran into the liquidity floor in March 2023 at $3.0 trillion (the new floor) with the regional bank crisis. Both the Fed and the Treasury provided liquidity in response, although the Fed has maintained quantitative tightening. Liquidity has been maintained above that level without being greatly elevated, which is probably what would have happened post-2019 if not for the pandemic/lockdown stuff thereafter.

The New York Fed thinks the liquidity floor will be reached sometime in 2025, and that they'll go back to gradual balance sheet expansion then. Andy Constan, formerly of Bridgewater, thinks it'll be late 2025. I debate him a bit on this since both of us cover this closely, and I generally think it'll be mid 2025, although there are enough moving variables that neither early 2025 or late 2025 would surprise me, so conservatively I say "by the end of 2025."

I was talking to a large institutional investor today, and he said that his contact who is a major repo operator at an investment bank, thinks the current floor is now $3.3 trillion, which is roughly where it is currently. That basically means any further quantitative tightening has to be offset by reverse repo drainage, or they'll have a repo issue and the Fed will need to end QT. My estimate is somewhere in the $3.1-$3.2 trillion range for the liquidity floor, meaning I think there's a bit more room than that repo operator. But either way it's pretty tight.

This is all kind of rambling but generally when that liquidity floor is reached and is responded to, it tends to be good for a lot of liquidity-driven assets, including bitcoin. And it'll probably be with a whimper more than a bang, kind of like the September 2019 repo crisis that nobody other than macro nerds remember.

The issue is there are no consequences for the elites If you create a crisis like 2008 who cares the taxpayer will bail us out.

And this time is going to be worse as the us dollar is closer and closer to losing its status as a world reserve currency.

For this, there are many reasons such as weaponizing the dollar and swift, etc...

180+ countries want to join the new BRICS payment system what happens to the dollar then and a debt-based economy?

It will be hyperinflation as you can't just keep printing money that's paper that 180+ countries don't want.

Don't get me wrong there are solutions to this such as crypto where you can't print as much as you want but things will get a lot worse before they get any better.

Partly true but most people are not early adopters.

For example, any information on COVID that did not agree with the mainstream narrative even from the founder of the mRNA vaccines was banned on YouTube.

When I suggested Why don't you use an alternative video platform such as Rumble the answer I got was a lot of excuses and it came down to well idk I'm used to YouTube.

Now the question is while Nostr has great potential how do we get more prominent people to use it.

The reason I say this is when I showed and explained Nostr to friends etc... what I got was well so and so person is not here it's on X etc... and then they just stop using it.

The issue is most people want convenience and don't care about anything else for example, any information on COVID that did not agree with the mainstream narrative even from the founder of the mRNA vaccines was banned on YouTube.

When I suggested Why don't you use an alternative video platform such as Rumble the answer I got was a lot of excuses and it came down to well idk I'm used to YouTube.

What I like about Nostr I can see everything and decide what is true and what is false without someone in a company or the government thinking I'm so stupid that they need to shove the "truth" down my throat

Now my question is while Nostr has great potential how do we get more prominent people to use it such as nostr:npub1sg6plzptd64u62a878hep2kev88swjh3tw00gjsfl8f237lmu63q0uf63m

The reason I say this is when I showed and explained Nostr to friends etc... what I got was well so and so person is not here it's on X etc...

The issue is most people want convenience and really don't care about anything else and for example any information on COVID that did not agree with the mainstream narrative even from the founder of the mRNA vaccines was banned on YouTube.

When I suggested why don't you use an alternative video platform such as Rumble the answer I got was a lot of excuses and it came down to well idk I'm used to YouTube.

What I like about Nostr I can see everything and decide what is true and what is false without someone in a company or the government thinking I'm so stupid that they need to shove the "truth" down my throat,

So, I have been learning more about NOSTR, and I must say the idea is excellent. However, considering the world we live in and governments becoming more tyrannical worldwide, even the so-called "democratic" Western governments.

I work in cyber security and to play devis advocate over here and would like to ask nostr:npub1sg6plzptd64u62a878hep2kev88swjh3tw00gjsfl8f237lmu63q0uf63m and nostr:npub1xtscya34g58tk0z605fvr788k263gsu6cy9x0mhnm87echrgufzsevkk5s what is to stop governments from blocking the NOSTR protocol on the ISP level?

I know it is encrypted and uses port 443 but can the traffic be identified and blocked?

In my opinion, governments don't like free speech where they can't control the narrative and I'm 100% sure that if NOSTR becomes the primary social media platform + any other use cases governments will try to shut It down.

Thoughts?