The only plausible future for the lightning network at this point is that 99% of users will use centralized, custodial platforms, each with counterparty risk.
The main feature of lightning is that it is non-custodial, decentralized, and does not require taking in counterparty risk.
I feel like if we're stuck with CP risk anyway then there might be better options than lightning.
“Envy is the crooked glance from below at something higher, which remains uncomprehended and unattainable, and must therefore be pulled off its perch, sullied, and destroyed.”
The future is influenced only by the greatest minds of a generation.
How great are the minds building CBDC's? My feeling is that no great mind in software engineering would touch those projects with a 10 foot pole.
How many great engineers are passionate about giving governments even more control over the money supply? How many are excited about money which expires?
The minds behind CBDCs are as ignorant about software as most amateur entrepreneurs are—they see engineers only as low-level contractors. Truly disruptive software is built by engineers working in isolation with complete control over their vision. No great piece of software began in the mind of a politician or a banker.
The bar for CBDCs to disrupt money as we know it is the same as for any other shitcoin trying to disrupt bitcoin—they must be at least 10x better.
CBDCs will fail to gain popular adoption until some brilliant engineer working alone creates one with the belief that his work will save the world. I just don't see that happening.
Still journaling like a boss though
Rapidly improving AI poses a problem for identity verification.
First, AI beating capcha means they can't tell humans apart from bots that way anymore.
Second, I don't want to do everything, I want my AI agents to be able to act as me even though they aren't human. I want to be able to delegate my authority to AI agents in a granular way, then take it away later.
Third, the idea of identity being tied humans in a one human one identity way doesn't work any more. It hasn't already for ages, which is why we have corporations.
Any attempt to continue down the path of one human one identity in an internet world must lead to authoritarianism.
Nsecbunker by nostr:npub1l2vyh47mk2p0qlsku7hg0vn29faehy9hy34ygaclpn66ukqp3afqutajft solves all of those problems. If you think it is just a way to log into social media securely, you aren't thinking big enough. We might be just a couple years away from 1 private key one identity and hundreds of AI agents doing our bidding for dozens of identities while we manage permissions for all of it through nsecbunker.
I hope I'm right. I think that is the tech utopia that stands in opposition to authoritarian identity verification and social credit systems.
This is how fiat dies. Money is only as valid as the identity/credit of the spender. The costs of fraud prevention in the age of AI will bankrupt the banks. The related frustration will repel consumers. CBDC's will fail to innovate fast enough to compensate.
Software developers age roughly two years for every calendar year that they work.
I am therefore in my late 60's.
"When you believe in things
That you don't understand
Then you suffer
Superstition ain't the way"
The most important song lyrics of our time come from the past.
I wish I could filter out notes that are not in english or larger than x bytes. I have no inline translation support as I am not using Google Play services, and some notes are so long that they are basically timelines of their own.
Evergreen advice
This is incredible. I have been telling people for 15 years that most of what they do with php and javascript is far easier and better with bash scrpts in Linux but I have never once convinced any one of them. I feel seen.
Probably the most impressed I have ever been by a piece of software is when I ran lightning terminal as an onion service. It was literally faster over tor than most sites on the clear net.
Despite the many problems I see with the lightning network, they have some amazing developers at lightning labs. https://github.com/lightninglabs/lightning-terminal
Protocols need to be slim, really slim and efficient if they're going to thrive. It took me a long time to appreciate just how right Luke Dash Jr. Is about block sizes in bitcoin. Decentralization is critical and we are already in a tight spot with the blockchain despite having defeated the big blockers.
I am obsessed with efficiency lately. Too many people rely on overpowered laptops and phones to plow through inefficiency in software.
I don't see how nostr is going to survive. The content is way too rich to scale and the cost of relays will rise quickly with adoption. This protocol is too liberal and lacks the constraints needed to ensure longevity.
can't finish thought, client crashing
As mucb as I love compartmentalization I don't love virtualization which pales in comparison to the redundancy of truly independant hardware. When you can do it for about $100 and 1W of power it's too good to ignore.
I just wish I could find some better csses. All of mine are flawed in some way.
I have so many raspberry pi's.
2b - piHole
3b - victron venus OS
4b 2g - home assistant
4b 8g - libreelec kodi
and a zero w which just shows me the relative humidiy on a little screen.
Two more in a drawer, a 1b and another zero w.
These units are all so stable and fast that I often forget how small they are. I generally only see them via ssh when updating. Most have been in active service for years.
If you give it a good power supply and don't push it too hard the pi is an amazing platform.
Fiat economics since 1971 has been like a roulette wheel that lands on Red with every single spin.
Every homeowner on my street is a newly minted multimillionaire and nobody seems to think that this is a problem.
Five years ago it was only the waterfront homes but now even inland empty lots are listed at half a million.
How many more straws do you think we can load on this camel?