Would nostr users like to see corporate media accounts being recommended on nostr clients to new users during onboarding?

Preston Pysh 3q pod is out 👀

NEW: The "unknown" address that accumulated more than 💵 $3bn worth of #Bitcoin  in the last 3 months, becoming the 🥉 3rd largest Bitcoin wallet, belongs to Robinhood Markets Inc, according to Arkham Intelligence 🔎

Sorry jack caffeine ain't a poison

80% of the world's commerce takes place in USD. How quickly will de-dollarization take place?

Paul Krugman now agrees 3% is the right number for inflation and is calling for the jobs of people who thought the Fed should target 2% 😮

Meanwhile Jerome Powell cannot explain why 2% was the original target in the first place 👇

Inflation is only 3.2%. Don’t believe your lying eyes, anon.

1. **Correlation ≠ Causation**: Even if the S&P 500 and the M2 Money Supply have moved in tandem over certain periods, it doesn't necessarily mean one causes the other. There could be third factors influencing both or the correlation could be coincidental.

2. **Potential Mechanism**: An increase in the money supply can lead to lower interest rates, which in turn can make borrowing cheaper for companies and consumers. Cheaper borrowing can stimulate economic activity and boost corporate profits, which could potentially drive stock prices higher. Additionally, lower interest rates can make bonds and other fixed-income assets less attractive relative to stocks, leading to increased demand for equities.

3. **Inflation Considerations**: An increase in the money supply can also lead to inflationary pressures. While in the short term, inflation might not have a direct negative impact on stock prices, prolonged periods of high inflation can erode purchasing power and impact corporate profitability.

4. **Other Factors**: The stock market is influenced by a myriad of factors, including but not limited to corporate earnings, geopolitical events, technological innovations, and investor sentiment. The money supply is just one of many factors that can influence the direction of stock prices.

5. **Empirical Observations**: Over the past several decades, there have been periods where the growth of the M2 Money Supply and the performance of the S&P 500 seemed to correlate. Especially during periods of aggressive monetary policy interventions, such as the Quantitative Easing programs post the 2008 financial crisis, there has been a noticeable increase in both the money supply and stock market valuations.

6. **Long-Term vs. Short-Term**: While there might be short-term correlations, over longer periods, the relationship might not hold as consistently. Factors like technological advancements, demographic shifts, and changing global dynamics can play a more dominant role in shaping stock market performance over the long run.

Big bummer for those who expecting some action for the halving event in 2024..... So this time *is* different..... We will see. For me it does not really matter. Strong hands.

Ever since around 2013/2014, bitcoin’s price has closely followed the rate of change in the growth of global broad money supply (M2) in USD terms.

In other words, from the perspective of macro investors (which are generally different than network users), it is the asset that best serves as a pure-play on changes in global liquidity. It’s a hedge against monetary inflation, not CPI inflation.

Notably, the dollar index relative to other major currencies strongly affects global monetary inflation.

So in order to have a view on price within any intermediate term timeframe (eg the people calling for new ATH prior to the next halving), it’s important to have a view on global monetary inflation and liquidity, because that is primarily where new external demand comes from.

Right now, bitcoin is a coiled spring on the supply side (fast money is out, coins have rotated towards strong illiquid hands), but the demand side (and thus the price) is largely a question of global liquidity.