#markets
Financial markets already telling Israel war is already done and dusted. Negotiantions soon...
#BTC #BTCUSD Blackrock commentary regarding the Bitcoin ETF comment by Cointelegraph .BlackRock has just confirmed to me that this is false. Their application is still under review.-- FOX BUSINESS Report
#BTC #Markets
Market Update: US equity indexes jump big after cash open, there is a huge short in the equity markets the pain trade is up.
#AAPL AAPL Reportedly iPhone 15 sales down y/y during first 17 days of sales; China sales said to be down about 5%, while US sales up double-digits y/y
If and when #Ukraine peace deal is coming rememeber the one an only listed #Ukraine ETF $BLK Blackrock is listed and these geezers bought the Ukraine at Rockbottom prices. Ride that 0 to hero the coming years.
#BTC #BTCUSD #index #markets
MARKET UPDATE, equity indexes rebound after small sell program was finished, BTCUSD no follow up after the pump no real buying or selling was triggered, crude is back to unch and gold slighlty lower. All and all slow action across the board, all awaiting for more magic to come from the Middle East.
#Market #BTC Update
Equity index sell program active across the board, the program is executed in line with volume. #BTCUSD saw a pump earlier without any follow up yet, #gold and #crude lower showing investors are kind of at ease with the Israel Hamas war, the Dollar Index also muted awaiting further developments.
#Egypt #war #Israel #Gaza
Here is a summary of the current state of affairs in Egypt for October 16, 2023 and an assessment of the political risks and stability of the country on a scale of 1 to 10:
- Egypt is facing a challenging political and economic situation, as it grapples with its worst economic crisis in years, a potential presidential election before the end of 2023, and a regional conflict in neighboring Gaza that threatens to spill over its borders.
- The economic crisis has been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, which has hit the country hard, especially its vital tourism sector. Egypt's GDP contracted by 5.8% in 2022, and its public debt reached 95% of GDP by the end of June 2023. The country has also faced rising inflation, unemployment, and poverty, as well as social discontent and protests over austerity measures and human rights violations.
- The political climate is uncertain, as President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who has been in power since 2014, is considering holding presidential elections before the end of 2023, according to people familiar with the matter. Sisi has not officially announced his intention to run for a third term, but he is widely expected to do so, as he has amended the constitution in 2019 to extend his term limit and expand his powers. Sisi faces no credible opposition, as most of his potential rivals have been jailed, exiled, or silenced. However, he may face some challenges from within the military or the judiciary, as well as from the public, who may demand more political freedoms and economic reforms.
- The regional conflict in Gaza poses another risk for Egypt's stability, as it is facing mounting pressure to act as neighboring Gaza gets pummeled by Israeli airstrikes after last weekend’s brutal assault on Israel by Hamas. Egypt has historically played a mediating role between Israel and Hamas, and has tried to broker a ceasefire in the current crisis. However, Egypt is also wary of opening its Rafah border crossing with Gaza, which is the only viable outlet for Gazans to escape the Israeli bombardment and receive humanitarian aid. Egypt fears that Israel may try to push hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees over the frontier into the Sinai desert, which would be a breach of international law and a national security risk for Egypt. Egypt has stepped up its military presence at the border and said it would not allow any displacement of Palestinians. Egypt also faces pressure from other Arab states and Turkey, who have expressed solidarity with the Palestinians and condemned Israel's actions.
- Based on these factors, I would rate Egypt's political risks and stability at 4 out of 10, meaning that it is relatively unstable and unpredictable. Egypt faces multiple challenges that could undermine its security, stability, and development prospects. It needs to address its economic woes, ensure a fair and transparent electoral process, respect human rights and civil liberties, and manage its relations with its neighbors and allies in a complex and volatile region.
#BTC #cryptocurrency
Potential price development of BTCUSD for next week:
Scenario 1: BTCUSD breaks out of the consolidation phase and rallies above 27,000 USD. This scenario could be triggered by a positive news event, such as a major institutional adoption or a favorable regulatory decision. The probability of success for this scenario is 40%, and my confidence level is high.
Scenario 2: BTCUSD continues to trade within the consolidation phase and remains range-bound between 26,500 USD and 27,000 USD. This scenario could be caused by a lack of market catalysts or a balanced supply and demand. The probability of success for this scenario is 50%, and my confidence level is medium.
Scenario 3: BTCUSD breaks down from the consolidation phase and drops below 26,500 USD. This scenario could be driven by a negative news event, such as a major security breach or a hostile regulatory action. The probability of success for this scenario is 10%, and my confidence level is low.
Based on these scenarios, I think the most likely outcome for next week is scenario 2, as it reflects the current market conditions and sentiment. However, I would also monitor the market closely for any signs of a breakout or a breakdown, as they could lead to significant price movements in either direction.
#Turkye #Syria #war #NATO
Based on public information available as of 16 October 2023, here are the key findings related to recent military activity in Turkey:
There has been a notable increase in Turkey's military activities in northeastern Syria. The U.S. has expressed concerns over the implications of these actions.
On 5 October 2023, a U.S. jet shot down a Turkish drone in Syria. This incident reportedly occurred near U.S. ground forces, suggesting a potential escalation in tension between the two NATO allies.
Despite the drone incident, the U.S. Department of Defense maintained its focus on the mission to defeat ISIS in Syria.
There has been ongoing speculation that Turkey might consider a ground operation into Syria.
Turkey's actions have prompted shifts in their military strategy indicating a possible escalation in northeastern Syria.
Turkey continues to pose an operational hazard for U.S. troops in Syria, with multiple uncoordinated airstrikes and military flights near U.S. positions.
Additional observations:
The U.S. appears committed to maintaining its forces in Syria to counter ISIS, despite potential friction with ally Turkey.
Turkey's actions in Syria could alter the balance of power in the region and complicate ongoing multinational efforts to stabilize the area.
The escalation of military activities in northeastern Syria by Turkey could indicate Turkey's intent to assert its regional influence, guard against perceived security threats, or respond to domestic political pressures.
Note: The situation is fluid and could change rapidly depending on a variety of factors, including the geopolitical context, decisions by involved nations, local developments on the ground in Syria, and broader global events.
#markets #economy Futures just opened showing a bit of risk- on with equity indexes higher, gold and energy a bit lower. Markets show less fear than the media about the Israel Hamas war for now.
#israel #war #jordan
Based on the recent open-source intelligence as of October 2023, here is a brief situational report on military activities in Jordan:
There were joint live-fire exercises conducted in October, highlighting increased military readiness and cooperation in the region. While the specific participants in these exercises were not explicitly mentioned, such activities often signify a strengthening of regional alliances and preparedness for potential confrontations.
Jordan co-hosted a conference with NATO on Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) control in Amman on October 3rd and 4th, indicating an interest in the control and regulation of such weapons.
There were notable visits by the Chair of the NATO Military Committee to Jordan in late September, suggesting an emphasis on the strategic alliance and mutual defense cooperation between NATO and Jordan.
Jordan has been highlighted regarding known smuggling routes and military activity. This is a potential security concern that is likely contributing to the overall security posture in the region.
Notably, tensions in nearby regions such as Israel, Gaza, and Syria continue, which can indirectly impact the overall security posture in Jordan, a key ally and stabilizing presence in the Middle East. Please note this assessment derives from publicly available information and it provides a high-level snapshot rather than a comprehensive analysis.
Watch those auctions! #USA #bonds #economy
How the weak 30-year bond auction in the US on October 12, 2023, affected the equity market. Investors sold futures contracts on the S&P 500 index to hedge against rising long-term interest rates, which put downward pressure on the stock prices. Selling in futures was not matched by a similar increase in supply on the thematic side, meaning that investors were not re-shorting their go-to shorts. Finally, fixed-strike volatility rose after the auction, indicating higher uncertainty and risk aversion in the market.
#winter #europe #energy
The EU is facing a challenging winter in terms of natural gas supply and demand, as the storage levels are low and the prices are high. The EU depends on gas imports from various sources, but the market has been affected by several factors, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the global recovery from the pandemic, the low level of renewable energy production, and the high carbon prices. The EU may face gas shortages or price spikes in case of a severe disruption or a prolonged cold spell, especially in the northern parts of the EU where the weather is expected to be cold and snowy. The EU has taken several measures to cope with the gas crisis and to diversify its supply sources and routes, but it needs to continue its efforts to ensure a secure and affordable supply of gas for its citizens and businesses. The EU should also pursue a constructive dialogue with its main gas suppliers, especially Russia, to ensure stable and predictable flows.
$BTCUSD stuck on the weekly and daily time frames range trading.
Capital is fleeing the #EU the people in the know are allocating their Euro's into CHF like there is no tomorrow $EURCHF