While there are many among us who feel comfortable holding 100% of their wealth in BTC, I find that this is not tolerable for most investors (myself included). As such, I have developed a portfolio theory that should be palatable for most investors, and I am looking for feedback on the concept:
First, I find it advisable to subdivide one’s liquid net worth into four categories (as described below):
1. Cash: Local currency that is required for immediate working capital (i.e. paying rent, utilities, food, etc.) until the next cash inflow.
2. Shock absorber: Value equal to 3-12 months of cash expenses held in a mix of corporate bonds and gold so as to generate at least some nominal yield with relatively low volatility.
3. Bitcoin: Whichever the investor is more comfortable with: a. An amount equal to 1 years’ worth of cash expenses or b. 5-8% of total liquid net worth.
4. Stocks: One’s remaining net worth after filling the above three buckets should be held in globally diversified market cap weighted equity index funds.
Rationale for each bucket:
1. Cash: Self-explanatory, needed for purchases.
2. Shock absorber: Serves as a pool of liquidity for emergency use and/or pop-up investment opportunities (e.g. BTC price dips or equity market dips).
3. Bitcoin: Explained below.
4. Stocks: This is essentially a financial battery that should generate a slightly positive real return when accounting for reinvested dividends (my estimate is an average of 2.8% real yield per year above M2).
Bitcoin Rationale: I see three general possibilities with BTC moving forward:
1. Bitcoin goes to 0: The chance of this is extremely low, but not zero. As such, the above allocation will not wreck the investor if such a circumstance should occur.
2. Bitcoin maintains its proportional share of global investible assets: The chance of this is moderate. In such an instance, BTC will keep pace with the growth in monetary bases and will serve as a sound store of value.
3. Bitcoin absorbs a larger proportional share of global investible assets: The chance of this is also moderate. In such an instance, BTC’s real value will increase over time and will likely outperform other investible assets such as stocks. On the extreme end, if stocks and other investible assets are seized by states as a result of a global currency collapse, BTC will skyrocket and will serve as an effective hedge by likely exceeding the real value of whatever the investor had held in stocks before seizure.
Looking for feedback.