//The Wire//2300Z April 23, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WILDFIRE CAUSES MASS EVACUATIONS IN NEW JERSEY. EARTHQUAKE STRIKES TURKEY. INDIA/PAKISTAN RELATIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Turkey: An earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 6.2 struck just south of Istanbul (Constantinople) overnight. So far reports of damage have been limited; Turkey's Minister of the Interior stated that no major buildings had collapsed but damage had been reported.
India: Following the recent terror attack in Kashmir, India has responded in several ways, most of which are not directly related to the specific attack, but rather are more diplomatic in nature. For one, India has halted the recent cross-border water deal with Pakistan due to the attack. India has also paused a special visa program with Pakistan that had allowed faster cross-border traffic for Pakistanis into the highly-controversial Kashmir region. Indian security patrols are also increasing throughout the area of the initial attack, and various high-level meetings with Indian defense officials have been observed since the attack took place.
-HomeFront-
New Jersey: Overnight large scale evacuations were ordered throughout the Barnegat township as a wildfire spread rapidly through Greenwood Forest. The Jones Road Fire was roughly 8,500 acres in size by morning, and at only 10% containment. The New Jersey Forest Fire Service reported that approximately 1,320 structures were at risk for being overtaken by the fire, and roughly 3,000 people have been evacuated from the areas most at risk.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Throughout the past few days, various rhetoric has continued regarding the trade war between the USA and China. Nothing is solidified beyond mere rumor and casual comment at this point, however the situation remains delicate. Some media outlets historically critical of President Trump are claiming that he caved, and will reduce the tariffs on China following the economic turmoil since this whole affair began. Media outlets supportive of Trump imply that he hasn't "caved" and that the situation is still being negotiated. Considering that there's very little to go on that's solid, the truth is probably in between the two extremes.
More generally, it is often very hard to engage in a trade war with nations that are governed by Communist institutions. This simple detail could be an unforeseen factor in negotiations; China's economy is not solely based around commerce...there is a military angle to most things that China does even if it doesn't seem like it at first. Nevertheless, some agreement will likely be reached at some point, despite the power-projection attempts by both sides.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2200Z April 22, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TOURIST GROUP AMBUSHED IN KASHMIR, 24 DEAD. DHS SECRETARY VICTIM OF PICKPOCKET, DRAWING SECURITY CONCERNS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
India: Overnight unknown insurgents ambushed a group of tourists in the resort town of Pahalgam in Kashmir. So far, the death toll stands at 24 fatalities and an unknown number of wounded as per Indian officials. PM Modi has stated that the incident was a terror attack.
AC: The timing of this attack was very likely not random. Not only did this attack take place during American VP Vance's visit to India, but this is the most significant attack in recent memory. In the wider context of the very controversial Kashmir region, the indiscriminate targeting of unarmed civilians is outside the norm for the various separatist groups that have freedom of maneuver throughout the area. As India's government has increasingly flexed their muscle in Kashmir by having an increased security presence over the years, if these attacks continue this could indicate another intensification of conflict throughout the beleaguered region.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Controversy has erupted following a minor incident involving DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, who's purse was stolen while having dinner in Washington on Sunday. The investigation into the theft is ongoing.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: While the attention Noem has received since beginning her role at DHS has been palpable, this situation is the latest in highlighting the long-standing problems within federal agencies.
The Department of Homeland Security is responsible for managing the US Secret Service, which in turn is responsible for protecting high-ranking individuals who are critical to national security. A person who can get close enough to steal a purse can also do other things. As incredulous as that seems by itself, one must remember the assailant also succeeded in getting away without being noticed until afterward. It's one thing if someone snatched a purse and made it approximately 12 feet before being tackled to the ground...but in this case not one member of her security detail seemed to notice anything happened at all. This means that a malign actor was able to get within close proximity of their protectee, remove something from their possession, and egress from the area undetected.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z April 10, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN IN KENTUCKY. OIL SPILL CLEANUP CONTINUES IN NORTH DAKOTA. USA/CHINA TRADE SPAT ESCALATES.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
New York: This afternoon a private helicopter (tail number: N216MH) crashed in the Hudson River in the vicinity of the Holland Tunnel. As of this report, no survivors have been reported, though rescue operations are ongoing.
North Dakota: Tuesday morning a rupture was reported at the Keystone pipeline near Fort Ransom. Roughly 3,500 barrels of oil were spilled in a farmer's field as a result of the pipeline rupture.
Kentucky: Recovery efforts continue following the flooding events of the past week. Severe weather events swept through the region last week, causing widespread damage from the floods. Many areas are still inaccessible due to roads washing out, and debris generally causing challenges with transportation.
Washington D.C. - Tariff shenanigans continue as the White House clarifies the math on the total tariffs on China. So far, the final tally as of this morning is that a 145% tariff on all imports from China is in effect.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As the helicopter crash in New York is a developing situation, not much is confirmed. Eyewitnesses state that the aircraft broke up mid-flight, with no obvious signs of distress or mechanical failure before the incident. Analysis of the aircraft's transponder data does not indicate any abnormal flight pattern before the incident that may indicate what happened.
Of note, misleading videos are already circulating on social media, being pushed by very big accounts. An older video of a similar helicopter showing erratic flight is being falsely claimed to be from this incident, when in reality that footage was from a few years ago. In today's age, misleading, old, or even outright fake video clips always circulate on social media in the minutes after a disaster. Despite this, most people on social media quickly forget the accounts that push fake information, thus continuing the circus the next time something happens.
In North Dakota, no cause was reported for the Keystone pipeline incident. However, the impacts will continue to be felt as the pipeline remains shut down (almost three days after the incident) while repairs are underway. This pipeline transports on average 600,000 barrels of crude oil per day, so any downtime whatsoever will probably negatively impact the prices of petroleum products while repairs continue.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z April 8, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TRADE TARIFFS ON CHINA TO BEGIN TOMORROW AFTER NO DEAL REACHED TODAY.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Afghanistan: Questionable reporting has emerged claiming that the United States has re-occupied Bagram Airbase. An article was published by Medium two days ago, which claimed that American C-17's landed at Bagram after being handed back control of the airbase from the Taliban.
AC: So far, this story as presented appears to be a fabrication; no sources, including the ADS-B tracking services mentioned in the article confirmed any aircraft landing. The aircraft specifically mentioned in the reporting, a C-17 operating as callsign MOOSE59 (tail number: 02-1099) probably did fly through Afghan airspace on April 5th. However, it did NOT land in Afghanistan...it's destination was Tajikistan.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Questions remain regarding the details of trade tariffs with China. President Trump's trade tariffs may or may not already be in effect as of noon today, earlier than previously announced. The tariffs are also allegedly higher than previously stated, with some media outlets stating that since no agreement was reached at noon today, a 117% tariff with China will be implemented tomorrow. Otherwise, the economic turmoil of yesterday morning has largely leveled out, with most indexes ending up not as effected as first expected.
This morning the US Supreme Court voted 5-4 to approve the White House's request to continue deportations of violent criminals under the Alien Enemies Act.
AC: This particular action by the SCOTUS isn't necessarily a win for the White House, as the actual opinions provided by the SCOTUS confirm that all Justices think this law *is* subject to judicial review, but this review must be conducted in the original jurisdiction (which was in Texas). Either way, all interpretations of the law are up for debate, so this will certainly be argued in court over the next few years, and remain entangled in some form or fashion.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Just because something seems true, doesn't mean that it is....as rather poignantly confirmed yet again just yesterday. Satellite imagery from just a few days ago confirms nothing has moved at Bagram, and local Taliban officials have proudly stated that they control the airfield. However, this article scandal probably does tacitly imply something interesting...mostly that the United States without question has eyes and ears in the region. What was originally spun as a fake news story might actually have stumbled upon a grain of truth; This flight was probably related to some secret-squirrel tasking, even if the aircraft didn't land directly at Bagram. Despite rather exuberant denials of such, the CIA and other intelligence agencies almost certainly maintain a foothold in Afghanistan, to some degree. Normally, CIA operations personnel don't fly on standard USAF C-17's...they have their own not-so-secret fleet of clandestine logistics aircraft. However, considering the wider context, and even without any evidence whatsoever, a random Medium journalist with 86 followers can claim "the CIA is here"...and in almost all cases be correct. In this case, this is due to the most significant factor of all forms of warfare throughout the history of mankind...geography.
Right about now, with relations with China deteriorating, not having control of Bagram Airbase is a serious strategic disadvantage to the United States. This airbase is one of the reasons the American occupation lasted as long as it did; one of the major unspoken strategic goals of maintaining a foothold in Afghanistan is that it's geography made it a fortress country right at China's backdoor. Now, with trouble brewing in the Far East, not having a foothold at Bagram is disadvantageous, and also why the information space is ripe for a deception campaign, and stories like this gain so much traction immediately...it makes total sense that the US government would do something like this at this point. However, in this case, the claims as they have been made are false. Nevertheless, with the entire global order experiencing a level of upheaval in many ways, careful attention would be wise to place on not just the places where new conflicts might emerge...but also the old sand where forgotten wars were fought long ago.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z April 7, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: GLOBAL MARKET TURMOIL RESULTS FROM TARIFF SHAKEUP. FORCE BUILDUP IN MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Global: On the economic front, hallmarks of a global market correction began to be observed this morning. Last night the Japanese stock market crashed, with circuit breakers being tripped for futures trading (Nikkei 225). Taiwan and South Korea did not do much better as circuit breakers were also tripped for their respective futures products as well as products linked to Taiwan's semiconductor production giant TSMC.
Following the exceptionally chaotic market fluctuations this morning, President Trump announced on social media that the United States will increase the tariffs on China by an additional 50% if China does not remove their additional tit-for-tat tariff implementations.
AC: As the United States has already implemented a 20% tariff on China, plus an additional 34% tariff, an additional 50% tariff on top of these previous taxes means China is looking at a potential 104% tariff being implemented in two days (if the situation doesn't change).
Middle East: The Charles de Gaulle Carrier Strike Group (CSG) was observed transiting north through the Suez Canal this morning, leaving the two American carriers the only one's in the CENTCOM AOR. Minor repositioning was observed at Diego Garcia as of this morning, with 6x B2's still on site with their respective refueling aircraft. Over the weekend, Israeli media claimed that the elusive THAAD battery that was originally in South Korea has been transferred to Israel.
AC: If this is true (and it likely is), this brings the total in Israel to two of these missile defense systems.
-HomeFront-
New York: Over the weekend a mass stabbing was reported at an apartment building in Brooklyn. Local authorities state that a man had a mental episode which resulted in him attempting to murder four young family members. 4x children were wounded in the attack, and the attacker was neutralized by police during their response.
Texas: A local measles outbreak has gained national attention following the death of a second child from the disease. HHS Secretary RFK Jr. visited Gaines County yesterday, and announced the deployment of CDC personnel to the area. RFK Jr. also stated on social media that "The most effective way to prevent the spread of measles is the MMR vaccine".
Washington D.C. - Over the weekend, FBI Director Kash Patel promoted the highly-controversial Steven Jensen to lead the Field Office in Washington D.C. Previously Jensen served as the chief of the Domestic Terrorism Operations Section within the Counterterrorism Division.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments:
While many may have forgotten, Steven Jensen is a highly controversial pick for this position as he was one of the masterminds within the FBI to investigate parents speaking at school board meetings as terrorists under the command of AG Merrick Garland in 2021.
As he was the Chief of the Domestic Terrorism Operations Section (also in 2021), Jensen was also the lead FBI decision maker behind the J6 investigations, and enthusiastically carried out the targeting of J6 participants on that day, and for many months afterwards. In short, Jensen is the man who provided the legwork for the J6 investigation, and he is one of the main persons responsible for why Trump himself had to pardon many J6 participants. Now, Jensen has been promoted into a very prestigious position at the FBI, leading the Field Office in Washington.
Due to the highly controversial nature of this pick, this promotion was not advertised with much fanfare. However, Patel passively confirmed the move himself by reposting an article on social media referencing the personnel change.
On the information and economic fronts, much activity has resulted from this morning's economic uncertainty. Late last night, most financial entities were preparing for a bloodbath upon the opening of the American markets this morning. As such, it's very likely that various efforts were undertaken to manipulate the information space, to buy time for big investors to make their moves. For instance, a perfectly cut-paste "news story" was circulated widely on Twitter/X shortly after the markets opened. This story claimed that President Trump was considering a 90 day pause on his tariff implementation. The origin of this story appears to be a few mainstream media outlets, but due to the timing of posts being made on social media, it could have originated from a few different accounts nearly at the same time. This caused a brief pump in the markets (lasting only a few minutes) before it became clear that this story was fake. Though completely speculative at this time, this was probably an effort to pump the markets enough for the big fish to briefly squeeze last-minute profits before dumping during the large sell-off events of the day.
In a grander sense, this somewhat minute detail that most people either didn't notice or didn't care about, highlights the nature of how "alternative" media impacts the world. Continuing the old adage of a lie traveling around the world before the truth puts on it's shoes, there are very real efforts by malign actors to manipulate the information space while also claiming to be free and independent media. Especially if a single post on social media, which has no attribution, sourcing or any sort of credibility whatsoever, can be whipped up into a frenzy that pumps the entire American stock market by about 8% for a few minutes...just long enough for someone to make billions.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z April 4, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: YEMENI HOUTHIS DOWN TWO AMERICAN DRONES, CONTRIBUTING TO CONTINUED HIGH TENSIONS. ECONOMIC INSTABILITY REMAINS FOLLOWING TARIFFS ANNOUNCEMENT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
United Kingdom: A 16-year-old boy was murdered after being stabbed in the neck in Huddersfield. So far, multiple attackers have been arrested in conjunction with the murder, however authorities have not identified the assailants.
Red Sea/HOA: The situation involving American targeting of the Houthis in Yemen has deteriorated following the shootdown of two American drones within the past few days. Two MQ-9 Reaper drones were shot down by the Houthis, one in Hudaydah, the other over Ma'rib.
Middle East: This afternoon the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center issued a maritime advisory warning of increased GPS jamming being detected in the Strait of Hormuz.
AC: This is a classic tactic used by Iranian forces routinely, either for the hijacking of vessels, or for more wartime preparations. While it is possible that the jamming is the result of American warships using electronic countermeasures to defend against missiles, in this case this could be related to the recent uptick in Iranian forces stopping oil tankers allegedly engaging in the smuggling of petroleum products. Iranian authorities seized two vessels attempting to illegally export diesel fuel from Iran a few days ago for these reasons. However, considering that the overall security situation in the region remains tenuous, GPS jamming could be a sign of increasing defenses against a potential conflict.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Various economic fallout continues as all sides of the issue interpret the recent tariff announcements in the context of economic stability. Most financial markets have remained volatile as fast-moving economic developments have come to light. This morning President Trump urged the FED to cut rates, but as of this afternoon Chairman Powell seems to indicate he's not interested in such, leading to more uncertainty.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Generally speaking, there are multiple viewpoints on whether the recent economic changes in the US are good or bad. Some state that the tariffs (and subsequent economic shake-up with regards to American domestic production) are a necessary hardship that will be tough at first, but will get better as more domestic production returns to the United States. Others think that while this is a noble goal, this may not be possible in some industries as companies will simply keep production overseas, and pass the costs of tariffs on to consumers, since most major companies in the modern world are monopolies. Others still don't like taxes in any form whatsoever, which is an argument that often mistakenly conflates taxing a domestic population with taxing an overseas adversary. Some people say "fair is fair", and that taxing other nations the same as they tax us is long overdue. Others agree with this idea, but point out that in the international arena, returning to a concept of fairness won't rule out hardship since most American companies outsourced everything to the third world years ago, and it will take a lot of work (and be quite costly) to start building things in America again. Even more people will point out the national security concerns of having the overwhelming majority of critical wartime supplies (such as almost all medications) being made overseas with cheap labor...an American-made Tylenol pill costing a few dollars per pill may be preferable to not having that pill at all in the event of a war.
Which perspective is correct is already being hotly debated, and the situation isn't necessarily possible to categorize as "good" or "bad". However, virtually no one is stating that economic tribulation won't be the result; the general consensus is that economic trouble will happen no matter what. The debate lies with whether or not the tariffs will result in long term hardship, or short term hardship....hard times will probably be the result in any case.
In the United Kingdom, the murder in Huddersfield has been subject to more gaslighting and manipulation in the media than usual, possibly due to the gruesome nature of the attack. For instance, the BBC reported the incident in very passive language, merely stating that "a man was found with a stab wound". Most media groups have also completely ignored the attacker, or in this case, the multiple people who have been arrested in conjunction with this murder.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
This week's intel update is out! https://youtu.be/pk_ahDQo3O4
//The Wire//2300Z March 28, 2025//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: MAJOR EARTHQUAKES STRIKE BURMA AND THAILAND, THOUSANDS OF CASUALTIES ESTIMATED. DIPLOMATIC ACTIONS CONTINUE IN UKRAINE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Southeast Asia: A very large earthquake (and many aftershocks) struck the region this morning, primarily within the nations of Myanmar (Burma) and Thailand. The epicenter of the Burmese earthquake was located almost exactly under the city of Mandalay, Burma's second largest city. Early estimates indicate the earthquake's magnitude was 7.7, larger than usual for the region. In Thailand, several aftershocks were felt and have caused damage through much of the northwest. A state of emergency remains in effect throughout most of Burma, and parts of Thailand that have been hardest hit. Many skyscrapers and high-rise buildings have collapsed in Bangkok, about 600 miles from the epicenter.
AC: This earthquake is a big deal, with most authorities estimating thousands, if not tens of thousands of casualties spread throughout the region. Right now, numbers are impossible to verify as most communications networks throughout Burma and Thailand (which barely functioned before the earthquake) are simply overwhelmed. Additionally, since Burma has been living under a state of military coup for several years, communications blackouts have been the norm to prevent access to the internet by locals. As such these censorship efforts probably will have a negative impact on determining the scale of the crisis in Burma.
Eastern Europe: The potential for peace in Ukraine remains on the table as diplomatic efforts remain constant. Overnight, President Putin gave a very frank and direct talk regarding his concerns for the war coming to a close. One of his chief concerns is the legitimacy of peace; in short, Putin stated that he's not sure if a peace agreement with Zelenskyy would be legally binding, because he is not the elected leader of Ukraine (referencing the fact that elections have been suspended in Ukraine, and Zelenskyy's term of office expired some time ago).
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though many may scoff at listening to anything Putin says, his remarks last night provide some much needed insight into his perspective during negotiations. For instance, from Putin's perspective, regime change is a non-starter. From where Putin sits, Zelenskyy must go even if that means ousting him and creating an interim transitional government while elections take place. Considering his strangely direct remarks, he probably would be amenable to a ceasefire while Ukrainian elections take place, but that's sheer speculation at best.
Rightly or wrongly, and like it or not, Zelenskyy remaining in office is one of the biggest barriers to peace and Russia has made it clear that they will continue fighting as long as he is in power. Zelenskyy himself did make it illegal for any ceasefire or peace talks to even happen with Putin, that is an undeniable fact that is complicating things quite a bit. Of course, on the other side of the issue, Russia wants to come out of this war in the best position possible, and a transitional government where everyone is vying for power would be politically advantageous to Russia.
Fundamentally, opinions will vary on what is happening as long as those interpreting the diplomatic efforts adopt certain opinions. For instance, if a person thinks that Putin is hellbent on taking the entire continent of Europe, one analytical perspective will be adopted. If a person thinks that Putin just wants to make a minor land grab and isn't interested in land outside of Ukraine, another analytical perspective will be used. This is one of the major reasons for analytical discrepancy throughout the conflict, and is why the terms of a peace agreement might be confusing to many people who had believed one set of beliefs about the war for so long that at war's end, the reality of the situation might be hard to understand.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z March 27, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: VEHICLE RAMMING IN BERLIN, MASS STABBING IN AMSTERDAM. WILDFIRE SEASON RISKS INCREASED DUE TO HELENE DAMAGE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Germany: Overnight a vehicle ramming attack was conducted in the Gesundbrunnen district of Berlin, resulting in multiple casualties. So far 6x people were wounded in the attack, and 1x fatality was reported.
AC: At the moment, the circumstances of this attack are unclear. Some reporting suggests the ramming attack was intentional, other reports state that it was the result of a driver attempting to flee a police checkpoint because he was unlicensed, which resulted in the crash into a crowd of pedestrians. In either case, deliberate action was undertaken by the driver.
Netherlands: This morning a mass stabbing was reported in Amsterdam. 5x victims were stabbed by an assailant in Dam Square, with the attacker being detained at the scene. So far no details on the attacker have been released by authorities.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Following the Signal group chat scandal, overnight new developments have come to light. Using the data from the group chat as a jumping off point, various old email accounts, friends lists on various accounts, and random other data points have been linked to several of government officials. The media group that originated this digital snooping also claims that passwords were also found on various websites, likely resulting from various data breaches over the years.
North Carolina: Wildfire season is underway, bringing more risks than normal in some areas. For instance, in western North Carolina, the downed trees from Hurricane Helene have resulted in challenges managing wildfires. Similar situations and concerns have been reported in Tennessee and South Carolina.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Even though federal resources have arrived to work cleanup operations in western North Carolina (all of which is greatly appreciated by locals), much of it has been unfortunately too little, too late. All locals know that state leadership has been intentionally dragging feet on their Helene response to the point of being criminally negligent, even though local responders have done and continue to do great work at the local level. Regarding the fire season, responders are doing the best they can but many fires have been burning for almost a week and are still at zero-percent containment.
As one disaster often leads to another, the twist of the knife in this case turns out to be an increased wildfire risk. Downed trees provide fuel, change wind patterns, and provide barriers to vehicle traffic....both for firefighting resources and for those trying to evacuate. In short, firefighting will be a lot harder this year in the areas impacted by Hurricane Helene, so heightened situational awareness would be a great idea this fire season. If an evacuation is called for, evacuating earlier than you might think will be helpful, especially in areas that firefighting resources might have a hard time accessing. Just because a small passenger vehicle will squeeze through hurricane damaged roads doesn't mean that a firefighting rig can too.
Regarding the new developments in Washington, it would seem that various journalists simply conducted a bunch of free online background checks on various people in the original group chat, and since data privacy is a nightmare these days, a lot of links could be made using very little initial data. This isn't really a groundbreaking or scandalous development, it's more akin to just bad data protection practices.
We all have an old email address that we don't use anymore, or an account at a random website that we needed once and never used again, or the infamous data sucked up every single moment of an online existence. It turns out that government officials are people too, and if people are looking, a digital trail of breadcrumbs can easily be found.
In the age of data privacy being very hard to achieve, the various digital breadcrumbs left by those in government is a point of targeting by malign actors. Of course, this problem has existed for a long time and is irrespective of political party. As such a bit of survivability bias is probably in play here...anyone other than Trump's administration gets a free pass on their lax data security, but Trump's team gets examined with a fine-toothed comb. Now that journalists have found a profitable way to target various Trump officials, they will probably continue to dogpile on issues that are really inherent to government at large (and thus not really specific to something Trump or his people have done).
Nevertheless, this does highlight some inefficiencies in the day-to-day operations surrounding various government officials. For example, it has been known for many years that almost all military generals and admirals one-star and above, have a personal assistant solely dedicated to finding negative stories about that general, and shaping the general's image online (known as the Army Protective Services Battalion (APSB)). If a journalist can hop on a "free background check" website and find this data, one might have thought that the NSA would have completed a Personally Identifiable Information (PII) vulnerability assessment for senior government officials. An official getting blackmailed because of an embarrassing email account that they created when they were 12 years old is generally counter productive to the management of a nationstate. Consequently, as this scandal drags on, this might be a point of improvement in the long run.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z March 25, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DANISH PM VOICES CONCERNS REGARDING AMERICAN ASPIRATIONS FOR GREENLAND. PRIVATE GROUP CHAT USED BY SENIOR WHITE HOUSE STAFF ALLEGEDLY LEAKED TO JOURNALIST.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Arctic Circle: Following yesterday's complaint from Greenland's Prime Minister, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen also voiced objection to the increasingly frequent visits to Greenland by American diplomats.
AC: During her remarks, PM Frederiksen also cited the 1951 treaty which gave the United States freedom of maneuver throughout Greenland and allowed the construction of military bases as the United States sees fit.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - A minor scandal emerged yesterday following a journalist gaining access to a group chat used by national leadership. The Atlantic ran a story yesterday that their Editor-in-Chief Jeff Goldberg had accidentally been added to a group chat on the Signal app, which allegedly contained VP Vance, SECDEF Hegseth, and other high-ranking officials in the White House.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: So far, the claims made in the Atlantic's article (which is locked behind a paywall) are that the group chat involved the posting of classified information. The Atlantic did not include any classified language in their article; all that was posted were private messages that are diplomatically dominating, but otherwise harmless with regards to any sort of classified ideas.
The White House response so far has been dismissive and unconcerned. Most of the response has been to indirectly confirm beyond reasonable doubt that the chat is genuine.
All things considered, there are four main theories regarding this scandal, which are as follows:
1- That this scandal was indeed a real and unintended breach of security, and that government officials really did do all of the damning things in the Atlantic report (such as sharing classified information on Signal).
2- That the group chat wasn't real, and was instead an intentional deception operation set purely with the goal of identifying security leaks.
3- That this was an intentional leak disguised as an accident, but intended to send a very frank and unpolished message to European leaders regarding the situation in Yemen, along with America's general attitude towards Europe.
4- That this was a legitimate security breach that was unintentional, but nobody in the chat actually posted classified information or anything that they wouldn't say in person.
At the moment, theory #4 seems to be the most likely possibility, considering that nothing was said in the screenshots posted by the Atlantic, that the originator wouldn't also say directly to the public.
Theory #2 also bears quite a bit of weight, considering the sheer statistical odds of the Editor of the Atlantic being added to a group chat involving the tightest inner circle in the White House. At face value, the leader of one of the most infamous "media" groups in existence, the Atlantic, being "accidentally" added to an ultra-secret group chat of the highest ranking individuals possible, is preposterous. In short, if the White House wanted to engage in an ambiguity-decreasing deception campaign, adding a journalist "by accident" to a group chat would be the way to do it. This is quite literally a textbook example of the Haversack Ruse, one of the oldest deception actions in the history of warfare.
National Security Advisor Mike Waltz also being the alleged initiator of this error is ironic to the point of adding a lot of credence to the "intentional psyop" theory. Normally, when government officials have been caught using non-approved communications means, they have used pseudonyms...not their real name and profile pictures.
Indeed, Goldberg himself probably couldn't believe his own luck after being added to this group chat, considering that in his own article he waited a couple of weeks before writing yesterday's paywall article on this escapade. He was probably waiting to see if anything particularly juicy was said, and when nothing was, he decided to run the story with what he had to squeeze some sort of revenue out of the incident for the Atlantic.
Conversely, if this was an intentional attempt at a deception campaign, Goldberg not immediately jumping on this story probably wasn't expected...any deception planner would have wanted Goldberg to immediately pounce on the communications that he had seen pertaining to Yemen, and immediately publish the leak. When he didn't, that was probably a bit of a missed opportunity, as if this was a deception campaign, it was aimed at exactly one target...the Iranians. These types of leaks are usually conducted to convey important warnings and policy decisions, and to convey that political leadership is serious,. Considering the wider context of the tensions in the Middle East, if this was a deception event or an attempt to send a message, it was executed with nearly perfect timing, impact, and scope. This is why the "intentional psyop" theory carries so much weight...if it wasn't a psyop, it sure bears all of the hallmarks of such.
However, the possibility does remain for things to be just as simple as they seem, within reason. Remember, it's a new generation of military and political leadership...there's absolutely zero chance that Pete Hegseth and JD Vance would communicate in this group chat without assuming that their messages would be screenshot by some person in the chat. Even if it was just a low level staffer who was minding a politicians phone for them when they went into various secured spaces around Washington. These two in particular were raised in the era of the internet, and it's exceptionally unlikely that they would use their real names in a group chat and expect any sort of privacy, thus they probably knew the chat would get leaked at some point. If this were the early 2000's and involving a secret email server in someone's basement, it would be believable (and a lot more damning). But as it stands it's quite likely that even though this breach may have been unintentional, it's possible that nothing was said that was illegal. This theory is most strongly evidenced by the White House stating that all of the messages in that group chat were unclassified. If this is the case, nothing is stopping the Atlantic from publishing the entire chat history. If the Atlantic does not do this, it would probably be safe to assume that what would ordinarily be a journalistic jackpot (getting added to a group chat with the VP and SECDEF), actually turned out to be completely underwhelming. Considering the absolute security nightmare that resulted from low-level staffers in the previous administration leaking virtually everything they got their hands on, this current admin's White House is a much tighter ship by comparison.
More broadly, when examining the potential for deception operations, a simple analysis of the result may provide some benefit. For instance, what has been the result of this so-called "breach"? So far, nothing was said that would result in embarrassment for anyone involved, in fact these allegedly secret communications indicate quite the contrary. European leaders also have the message loud and clear that the Americans are indeed tired of their shenanigans, and that this posturing is not a bluff. Similar story in Yemen, both the Houthis and the Iranians now know without question the US is bucking for another war, and it might just be them. The "journalist" involved has somehow turned what could have been the Watergate scandal of a millennia into largely a bit of positive PR for the Trump administration. As such, whether it was an intentional leak, or if it was an unintentional leak that was assessed to be inevitable at some point, Jeff Goldberg fulfilled the role of useful idiot quite nicely.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/DLj0_vNPbqg
//The Wire//2300Z March 21, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MAJOR FIRE SHUTS DOWN HEATHROW AIRPORT, ALL AIRCRAFT DIVERTED FOR SOME TIME. UKRAINE AID FLIGHTS CONTINUE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
United Kingdom: This morning a fire broke out at an electrical substation providing power to Heathrow Airport, prompting mass cancelations of all flights. The airport's backup generators were also affected by the fire, leading to a total electrical outage at the airport. All aircraft at the airport were grounded during the crisis, and all incoming aircraft were diverted to other airports or returned to their point of origin.
AC: So far, no cause of the substation fire has been released, however British media is reporting that counterterrorism police are leading the investigation into the incident.
Ukraine: American military and financial aid to Ukraine has continued, with multiple shipments of arms arriving over the past few days. Several logistics flights have been noted by aircraft watchers since the resumption of aid was announced by the White House two weeks ago. Zelenskyy himself confirmed that a fresh shipment of F-16 fighter aircraft had arrived on Wednesday, however he did not specific their point of origin.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Executive actions continue as before. President Trump has expressed interest in the United States joining the British Commonwealth of Nations, which has resulted in many questions regarding what this means. President Trump also signed an Executive Order closing the Department of Education, and returning educational authority to the States.
AC: This order is not an outright closure, but phrased in a manner that effectively removes the Department of Education from having any power or responsibilities. As the removal of a cabinet position is a large undertaking, time will tell how this order is put into place.
Texas: One Amazon freight transport was looted by locals after suffering a mechanical breakdown on the interstate in Dallas yesterday.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The looting of various logistical means of transportation is by no means a new development, but certainly something to be aware of due to warmer weather increasing the potential for the arrival of looting season. This will probably be a factor that plays into the already complicated (and increasingly expensive) world of logistics. From trade tariffs to missiles in the Red Sea, the costs of moving cargo around the world have become much more volatile over the past year, with wide swings in the costs of moving freight being observed on the Freightos Baltic Index over the past few months especially. Volatility has been a common theme among all markets since the US Presidential election, however now that the last-mile of logistics is becoming increasingly more susceptible to looting, this is yet another factor that will drive up the costs for consumers.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z March 14, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: AMERICAN AIRLINES FLIGHT SUFFERS ENGINE FIRE IN DENVER. DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS CONTINUE TO URGE AN AGREEMENT IN UKRAINE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Diplomatic developments continue by the hour regarding the potential for peace in Ukraine. Russia has responded favorably to the idea of a ceasefire, however no ceasefire terms have been accepted on paper or implemented just yet. However, this morning NATO Chief Mark Rutte stated that Ukraine will not be joining NATO, which likely will be viewed as a favorable development by Russia. In Ukraine, the Kursk Offensive is largely no more, with almost all Ukrainian troops egressing south back over the border into Ukraine over the past few weeks.
Canada: Justin Trudeau has formally resigned as Prime Minister, being replaced by Mark Carney.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Following yesterdays' multiple swatting incidents of conservative media figures, FBI Director Kash Patel issued a statement acknowledging the incidents, and has allegedly begun investigations into the culprits of these types of events.
Colorado: American Airlines Flight 1006 experienced a fire emergency upon landing in Denver yesterday. The pilots landed without issue, however while taxiing to the terminal, an engine caught fire. The aircraft successfully made it back to the terminal before the fire expanded significantly. Despite challenges while evacuating (such as many passengers taking the time to gather their carry on bags), all passengers and crew were able to safely evacuate the aircraft.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The fire onboard AA1006 is a great reminder to pay attention to all safety procedures during commercial flights, such as the explicit direction to leave your possessions behind, and get out of the aircraft as quickly as possible. For future reference, most aircraft in the 737 family do not have slides or inflatables on the wings of the aircraft; the emergency procedure involves the pilots lowering the flaps, which serve as the slide to egress from the aircraft. There are markings painted on the top of the wing that indicate which route to take, and to slide off of the wing using the flaps. However, in this case, most passengers who took the overwing exits were stranded on top of the wing with no way to get down (or so they thought). Since it often requires going against human instinct to slide down a wing into the unknown below (or in this case, sliding down into flame and smoke under the wing) this detail regarding the overwing exits lacking a clear and confident egress method has been noted by investigators during previous emergencies over the years. The good news is that on most 737 platforms, the wing is a maximum of approximately 10 feet from the ground at worst (depending on variant), so jumping down from any point on the wing would likely have been possible in any case.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z March 13, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PUTIN AGREES TO IDEA OF CEASEFIRE IN UKRAINE, BUT STRESSES DESIRE FOR A PERMANENT PEACE AGREEMENT. MALIGN ACTORS REMAIN DEDICATED TO TARGETING POLITICAL ENEMIES IN THE UNITED STATES.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: This morning President Putin stated that he is supportive of a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine. In a televised media session, Putin also emphasized that a longer term peace agreement is really the end goal, not just a temporary ceasefire.
AC: Of note, many media outlets (including lots of independent journalists) ran stories last night "confirming" that Putin rejected this ceasefire proposal. Normally, there is some fluidity with developing news stories, however there's usually not that much discrepancy. As a result, it would probably be wise to wait and see for a few days, and let things develop, before conducting a hard-and-fast assessment on what's going on with regards to a peace agreement. Things happen fast in the world of international relations; what starts off as a good deal can sour in an instant, and what seems impossible can in reality be quite an easy point of commonality to agree on. The common factor of all of this is that diplomacy is often a winding road, and takes time to come to a point of stability.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Politics continues as before, with several appointment picks being withdrawn due to controversy. Trump's pick for CDC Director (Dr. Dave Weldon) was withdrawn due to Dr. Weldon previously being critical of vaccine safety standards, and for his research to determine if there is a link between vaccines and childhood developmental disorders such as autism. Similarly, Trump's initial pick for the Deputy Director of National Intelligence (Daniel Davis) was withdrawn after the ADL deliberately lobbied against him for his views allegedly critical of the Israeli government.
Texas: Multiple developments have taken place with regards to politically conservative journalists being targeted. InfoWars writer Jaime White was murdered at his home in Austin on Sunday night, after returning home from work. No indication of motive has been released by authorities indicating whether or not this was a targeted attack, or a crime of opportunity. However, following this attack, an on-air InfoWars journalist was swatted multiple times over the past few days.
Separately from InfoWars, a separate politically-conservative independent journalist was swatted last night as well, along with multiple family members being swatted at their homes.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As has been a well-known tactic among malign actors, calling in a fake horrific crime with the intent of goading police into shooting and killing a target has become an increasingly common threat vector over the past few years. Malign actors know and understand that law enforcement interacting with a civilian population in our current times is risky, and if a police officer is told that they are going into a violent crime situation to begin with, malign actors can take advantage of this heightened state of tension to increase the likelihood that a police officer will shoot someone. Thankfully, in many cases, officers don't take the bait after realizing they were used as pawns during a swatting incident. But recent American history is filled with situations where a swatting victim is not so lucky. At minimum, an innocent person being dragged from their bed in the night, to be slammed on the ground and handcuffed in front of their own home is a humiliating experience from which there is no recompense. The police, after figuring out it was a fake call, drive away like nothing happened...only for the next shift to be subject to the same fake 911 call over and over again. The result is the taxpayer spending much time handcuffed in front of their own home, again and again, with no real way to stop it from happening. It's an unfortunate and non-preventable situation to be in, as if there were to be a real crime, one would hope that a rapid response would take place. However, since there has been nearly zero focus on investigating swatting incidents, and almost zero focus on prosecuting those who engaging in swatting behavior, these types of tactics will continue for the foreseeable future, and highlight the importance of privacy for anyone who might potentially say anything offensive on the internet.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z March 11, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TRADE WAR BETWEEN USA/CAN CONTINUES TO ESCALATE. TRUMP TARGETS CONGRESSMEN OPPOSING OMNIBUS SPENDING BILL. AMERICAN AID TO UKRAINE RESUMES, PER STATE DEPARTMENT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Canada: The trade war between the US and Canada continues to deteriorate as expected, with multiple short-lived diplomatic developments taking place throughout the day. This morning the White House announced an increase in tariffs to 50% for imported Canadian aluminum and steel. Within a few hours, the province of Ontario imposed a 25% tariff on electricity exports to several northeastern US states. This led to the White House announcing plans to declare a National Emergency on Electricity in the affected area. By this afternoon, Canada removed this 25% tariff on electricity, the "national emergency" hasn't been clarified at all, and negotiations have begun regarding cross-border electricity deals in the northeast.
Ukraine: This afternoon the State Department announced that American military aid to Ukraine has resumed. AC: What this declaration means is anyone's guess at the moment. However, if this is a resumption of all military and financial aid to Ukraine, this would be a very significant reversal of another major issue that the White House explicitly campaigned on. Either way, time will tell, both in terms of what this looks like financially, but also how Americans will perceive this development.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Brief scandal has emerged following President Trump's pledge to primary Representative Thomas Massie for voting against the Republican omnibus spending bill to fund the government.
As of this afternoon, the omnibus spending bill passed, with Rep. Massie being the only "no" vote from within the Republican party. The bill now heads to the Senate, where it is expected to pass.
Meanwhile at the DoJ, the previous fiasco involving the release of Epstein, JFK, RFK, and MLK Jr. assassination documents has largely been forgotten. President Trump has made no comments on the issue, and more notably the White House press corps hasn't asked about it either. No new documents have been released, and the DoJ has pivoted to policing other speech-related concerns.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The spending bill as passed in the House does not include any of the efforts undertaken by DOGE to identify fraud, waste, and abuse, meaning that all of the viral posts surrounding the DOGE audits were all for nothing if those same openly fraudulent programs get funded anyway.
Rep. Massie has stated that his opposition to the bill is largely due to the bill funding exactly the same things that were funded by the past year of President Biden's reign, and that funding this bill would be identical to repeating Biden's Presidency from a budgetary perspective (until September when the Continuing Resolution expires).
More generally, the conflict in Congress largely boils down to two perspectives. Trump doesn't like anyone who challenges his authority in any way, or goes against the establishment (or as some might say, the uniparty). Massie has gained notoriety by being the only Congressman who does not receive foreign lobby money (such as most notably from AIPAC). Thus, Trump's threat to oust him from office (while not levying this threat at any Democrat) is being perceived as a mistake (at best).
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z March 3, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK STRIKES MANNHEIM CARNIVAL. NOTHING NEW REGARDING EPSTEIN DOCS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Germany: A vehicle ramming attack was carried out in Mannheim this evening. The attacker was detained at the scene. So far, one fatality was reported, with many wounded in the attack. Mannheim police have requested witnesses to stop sharing video evidence on social media.
Austria: An unspecified threat at the Hauptbahnhof (central train station) in Vienna resulted in an evacuation of the station today, during the evening rush hour commute. AC: In keeping with tradition, very few details were released by authorities, however after a bomb squad sweep of the complex the alert was canceled. Though authorities have not specified the nature of the threat, most Austrian media has claimed the incident revolved around a bomb threat.
Norway: A brief diplomatic scandal was reported over the weekend following the Oval Office argument between the United States and Ukraine. After Zelenskyy was removed from the White House, various European nations have also transitioned to adopt a more hostile diplomatic position toward the United States. In Norway, these icy tensions came to fruition in the form of a maritime logistics company refusing to refuel American warships as part of a defense pact with Norway. Haltbakk Bunkers (a refueling company) issued a profanity-laced statement on social media culminating with the basic idea of "no fuel for Americans". This statement was rebuffed by Norway's Defense Minister, who stated that Norway would continue to provide the agreed upon support for American naval vessels who visit Norwegian ports. AC: Additionally, it must be noted that the CEO of Haltbakk confirmed that they don't actually have any established contracts to supply American vessels in the first place (other companies hold the larger defense logistical contracts), so this short-lived economic protest would not have had any impact anyway.
Ukraine: Two commercial cargo vessels were damaged in the port city of Odessa over the weekend. A Russian missile strike targeted the port and the vessels specifically due to allegedly being used for arms shipments to Ukraine. The M/V MSC LEVANTE F and the M/V SUPER SARKAS (a container ship and a bulk carrier respectively) were both struck in the attack, each suffering unknown damage.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - All chatter surrounding the release of the Epstein client list has largely fallen away following last week's influencer binder scandal. Neither the DoJ, nor the FBI have provided a clear time window for when any new documents are scheduled to be released. As AG Bondi's original order to provide the documents has not been carried out by the FBI, she has given the FBI 14 days to explain why her order wasn't followed. AC: As this scandal has largely devolved into strongly-worded emails, finger pointing, and ultimatums that aren't acknowledged, the chances of any further disclosures of new information are becoming increasingly remote.
Also in Washington, this afternoon the White House has announced the cessation of arms sales to Ukraine, as well as an increase in tariffs on Chinese trade to 20%. Following the failure of diplomatic talks, the previous trade tariffs with Canada and Mexico are set to come into effect at midnight (pending any last-minute diplomatic moves).
Florida: Three separate civilian aircraft violated the closed airspace surrounding President Trump's residence at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday. These airspace violations resulted in F-16's scrambling from the 1st Air Force out of Tyndall Air Force Base to intercept the aircraft. During at least two of these interceptions flares were deployed by military aircraft to get the attention of the civilian pilots. AC: It is not clear as to why these airspace violations occurred, as the airspace has been closed around Mar-a-Lago for years. It is possible that President Trump's weekend visit prompted a brief expansion of the normal airspace cordon, which went unnoticed by pilots who failed to check recent NOTAMs before flight.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The Mannheim attack was probably targeting the festivities of Germany's Karneval, a period of springtime festivities (similar to Marti Gras) leading up to Lent. This month-long season of festivity comprises of multiple holidays such as Rose Monday, Fasnacht Day, Ash Wednesday, Good Friday, etc. As has become common throughout Europe, this attack highlights the importance of heightened vigilance and situational awareness at any public event, but especially those with any sort of Christian tradition or affiliated with any Christian holiday. Vehicle ramming attacks remain the number one threat vector for public events, despite how easy it is to prevent these types of attacks from happening.
This is extremely important to consider in the context of the current threat environment...and all of the false-threats called in all over Europe. For instance, today's fake bomb threat in Vienna provided substantial intelligence to malign actors. After the station was evacuated, all of the passengers congregated at the entrances of the facility...well within blast range of any bomb that may have been inside the station. Furthermore, the large crowd of people outside formed an ideal target for a vehicle ramming attack. Hundreds of people were tightly packed together, facing the station (and thus facing away from potential threats), all completely oblivious to the fact that this evacuation order could have been a critical first step in a much larger attack. Terrorists know and understand that merely pulling a fire alarm will result in a convenient arrangement of soft-targets vulnerable to a variety of attacks immediately outside a facility: Outside the security cordon, outside the protection of any kind of structural barrier, well away from any kind of Stop-the-Bleed kits, or security personnel. Attacking not a hard-target, but a soft-target gathered outside, has been an open and transparent threat vector for everyone to see for years, which includes malign actors.
Thankfully in this case, though situational awareness failed, no attack occurred either inside the train station, or among the crowd tightly-packed outside. However (as with the Mannheim attack) these incidents provide a critical chance to highlight weaknesses in situational awareness habits, and remind us that stepping two feet outside of an evacuated building does not mitigate the threat very much at all.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
This week's intel update is out! https://youtu.be/Bqg0Hs5ChOo
//The Wire//2200Z February 27, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: EPSTEIN DOCUMENTS RELEASED TO SOCIAL MEDIA INFLUENCERS, NOT THE PUBLIC AS PROMISED FOR WEEKS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Much anticipation has resulted from earlier promises made by the White House to expedite the release of various documents. The JFK and MLK Jr. assassination files, and the Jeffrey Epstein client list have all been claimed to be released soon. However, AG Pam Bondi stated that some of the files would be released today. This afternoon, it was revealed that the release of the Jeffrey Epstein Files would take place in stages, with only pre-approved journalists and influencers being given access to these documents. This afternoon select pro-Trump influencers were invited to the White House to receive the Phase 1 documents in the form of physical binders.
Also this afternoon, AG Bondi released a letter that was sent to new FBI Director Kash Patel, in which she accused the FBI of withholding critical documents from her regarding this case.
As of this report, not a single page of new Epstein documentation has been released to the American public directly, or uploaded to the FBI's portal (as the older documents were released years ago).
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Over the past few weeks of hype surrounding the declassification and publishing of Jeffrey Epstein's clients, patience is wearing thin as little has been done to release the files for public consumption. Congress has gotten involved to create various committees to add more bureaucracy between the declassification of documents and the public. Just as a reminder, Congress has nothing to do with the declassification of documents. Declassification is purely a task completed by various intelligence agencies and Original Classification Authorities (OCAs). Once the OCA decides what is cleared for release (guidance which in this case comes from the POTUS), there is absolutely nothing preventing the release of declassified documents. No document requires Congressional approval to declassify, so the involvement of Congress at all is being perceived as a move intended to intentionally delay the release of these documents.
Since the dawn of these highly-controversial incidents, many people with political power have been strong advocates of releasing the details pertaining to everything from JFK to Jeffrey Epstein...until they get access to the truth. Every single time the buck stops at a particular person, they start dragging their feet, and bringing the process of what is colloquially known as "the runaround". These delays have been so serious and obvious that various other groups and Congressional committees have formally filed complaints with the DoJ to pressure the executive branch to not go back on their promise. Attorney General Pam Bondi has by her own admission had the files "on her desk" for several days now but as of this afternoon, she claims that the FBI didn't send her all of the documents. Now, it is revealed that the release will take place in stages through influencers who will act as intermediaries. What has been released to these influencers is anyone's guess at this moment, though most of them are extremely unlikely to be trustworthy considering that many of the people seen at the closed-door disclosure even have direct ties to the same circle of friends that Jeffrey Epstein himself also had very close contact with.
In a broader sense, this is also exceptionally dangerous. Remembering the scale of this international blackmail and human trafficking network, it is already very publicly known that former Presidents, royalty, bankers, and the very top of the global elite were involved with Jeffrey Epstein in some form or another....and it would be very foolish to approach this topic with the naivety already displayed by the influencers at the core of this scandal. Anyone who understands the gravity and real-world danger would know that this isn't just another scoop that can be milked for a 3-hour podcast episode.
On the other hand, the access granted to these select group of influencers is also important in the context of privilege and control. Obviously, this information was shared with these influencers...but not all influencers. That access and preferential treatment alone is a powerful means of controlling these influencers. Due to this preferential treatment, if any one of these influencers were to have the desire to speak the truth, even if it hurts the Trump administration, they will probably be less likely to do so. Any time a negative story comes up, they'll be thinking back to the time that they got to see the Epstein files first...and they may want to rethink their truthful reporting so as to not bite the hand that fed them once. Considering this access was also granted to a select few, competition will abound between all of them...the influencer who pushes back and asks tough questions about the information they now know might not get such a warm welcome to the White House again.
Despite all of this, and despite all of Trump's supporters who will make ever concession to excuse this behavior, this is not only a complete betrayal of Trump's previous promises to release the documents, but this is also nearly identical to the practices of the previous administration which preferred to interact with journalists and influencers instead of releasing anything to the public directly. This is one of the most impactful events in recent history; this scandal involves the systemic blackmail of high-ranking politicians at the behest of powerful people with links to foreign intelligence agencies...and this is being entrusted to social media influencers instead of being released directly to the American people. Influencers and "journalists" who are loyal to the current White House (and other nations) being the middlemen, who in turn decide what details to release to maximize engagement farming and ad revenue, is not something that is meeting with the approval of the American people. Some might even consider the legal implications of such to be akin to a quid-pro-quo scheme, whereby public data that every taxpayer has the right to see is being selectively withheld to enhance the income of personal friends. This seemingly minor detail may shift the mood of this event from being a rather poor-taste political stunt, into what might actually be a crime. Even though there is nuance in the social implications of this, federal law is quite clear: Either it's still classified and was released illegally to a select group of people, or it's public data that is illegally being withheld from the American people in violation of the Freedom of Information Act (FoIA).
Speaking more technically of the nature of declassifying information, anyone between the Original Classification Authority and the American people is an unnecessary barrier to the truth. Every other declassified document since the dawn of time has been posted on an online government portal (usually run by the declassifying agency) in it's entirety, usually with redactions here and there, but always in an online PDF format that anyone can see. Even if the document is 100% redacted, it's still there for the public to look at. In this case, this content is being milked for all it's worth and slowly being drip-fed to the American people solely through pro-Trump influencers...many of which have conflicts of interest in this case, or ties to Jeffrey Epstein himself. Consequently, expectations for the rest of the disclosures (whatever those docs might look like) are not particularly high; most people are expecting the files to be heavily redacted, or with all of the damning evidence having long-been destroyed, or manipulated by social media influencers who can pick and choose what details to disclose. Adding in unnecessary middlemen also muddies the water of what is true, and what isn't...now (just like the previous administration) we have to process information from secondary sources, instead of primary sources. If and/or when these documents are released to the public, the taxpayer will have questions as to whether or not the version that was disclosed to the public was the same that was trickled down through the entire behemoth of federal bureaucracy and social media influencers.
Though completely speculative, the general sentiment as to why the release of these files has been delayed by everyone who touches the project, pertains to who (or what entity) may be implicated in all of these scandals. Another theory is that this delay has been undertaken largely to use the federal bureaucracy to chip away at any real details, so that the final product that is released isn't helpful or illuminating at all. Or more likely, the details that will be released will only be partial, or intended to distract from other more serious crimes. There is also the rather significant detail of criminal investigations...as much as the American people want to know who Epstein's clients were, most people probably want arrests more than grifting from social media influencers. Releasing a list of names without simultaneous prosecutions of affecting any change whatsoever isn't really effective.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z February 26, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UKRAINE MINERAL DEAL PROGRESSES WITH THE UNITED STATES. WHITE HOUSE ANNOUNCES NEW FINANCIALLY-BASED PATH TO CITIZENSHIP.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Talks between the United States and Ukraine have continued with regards to a trade deal involving rare earth minerals. This deal, which has been the source of controversy, will enable the export of Ukrainian minerals in exchange for continued American aid. AC: So far, nothing has been signed, however both Kiev and Washington have signaled that terms have been agreed upon. At the moment, it's not certain how much this mineral deal will actually come to fruition; most of the mineral wealth of Ukraine currently is located either in active combat zones or in areas that have long been under Russian control.
Chile: This morning a transformer outage resulted in a nearly-nationwide electrical blackout. This outage affected not only residential areas, but large commercial centers and mining operations.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - President Trump announced a new financial-based greencard program yesterday. This new "Gold Card" program will allow foreign nationals to purchase legal American residency (and an expedited path to citizenship) for a one-time lump-sum payment of $5 million. This program is reported to replace the EB-5 visa program.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Trump's Gold Card program (as announced) has been perceived as highly controversial as it echoes the recent sentiments which resulted in the quiet dismissal of would-be DOGE co-director Vivek Ramaswamy (who, despite the recent scandal, is now running for Governor of Ohio). Ramaswamy's continual comments on social media equating the American experience as one of interchangeable economic units was perceived by many as being purely extractive and exploitive in nature, resulting in his quiet departure from federal government. For clarity, this "Gold Card" program has existed before in the form of various levels of investment visas/greencards. However, the White House floating the idea of revamping and streamlining the program to allow foreign nationals to purchase citizenship is being perceived to be just as exploitive of the American people as Vivek's prior comments which got him in trouble. Many citizens do not believe that America is Dubai, (a place which only exists to serve foreign investment opportunities), but these recent policy decisions don't do very much to dissuade that line of thinking.
At a certain point (and regardless of political beliefs), a series of words and actions is no longer a mistake or improper phrasing...it is a policy decision that reignites the questions of what it means to be American in the first place. This is very likely to be the reason that Ramaswamy's comments could not be "clarified" into being something more palatable...once the American population knows what a person's core values are, it's hard to walk-back those comments. Consequently, this "gold card" announcement has also reignited the prior discrepancies between Trump's supporter base, and his personal doctrine regarding issues that his own supporter base perceives as being a weak point, such as legal immigration. As such, it's possible that previously-dismissed (and seemingly minor) issues with Trump's proposed policies during the campaign really aren't minor nit-picking differences of opinion, but rather deep-seated differences of core values that will have to be acknowledged at some point. How much these details matter will be up for personal interpretation, but right now the general sentiment expressed in the global west is that giving a person an American passport does not magically make them compatible with American culture or heritage. Whether that is true or not will be debated for years to come. However, in the meantime, streamlining the process to bring other people here by putting a price tag on what it means to exist in America leaves a sour taste for many of those who worked to elect Trump with the goal of preserving their own existence in the American homeland.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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//The Wire//2300Z February 25, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CARTEL VIOLENCE CONTINUES SOUTH OF U.S. BORDER. GERMAN CDU REVERSES STANCE ON IMMIGRATION POLICIES AFTER ELECTION.//
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-International Events-
Germany: Following the weekend election cycle, discontent has been a common observation as various politicians have backtracked on campaign promises. CDU leadership, for instance, has deliberately flipped on their main campaign issue regarding immigration. During the campaign, the CDU's primary initiative was to limit immigration into Germany. After the election, CDU leadership (presumptive Chancellor Friedrich Merz) reneged on this promise, stating that the border will not be closed. AC: Though unsurprising to most who had the foresight to perceive this European tradition of complete policy reversals after elections, many others are rather upset as this sharp reversal affects a policy issue pertinent to most Germans.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Controversy continues in Congress regarding Rep. Dan Crenshaw's threat to murder Tucker Carlson. Crenshaw was caught making the comment during a hot-mic incident as part of a media interview a few days ago.
Southern Border Region: Following the IED incident in Tamaulipas earlier this month, Texas authorities have issued more warnings pertaining to the use of Improvised Anti-Vehicle Land Mines (IAVMs) in the vicinity of the border.
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Analyst Comments: For clarification, this afternoon the Texas Department of Agriculture issued a warning to ranchers in the border region, warning them about the IED incident that occurred earlier this month. This warning statement was poorly worded, and did not provide the context that the event occurred nearly a month ago, and took place in Mexico almost a hundred miles south of the US border. The notice also referred to an American citizen being killed in the IED blast, however the wording of this announcement is slightly misleading since there is zero mention of the IED blast actually occurring inside Mexico. This missing context (and the contradictory details originating from sources with unknown veracity), is important to understand in terms of assessing the risk as accurately as possible.
Over the past few months, clashes of increasing severity have been reported between the Gulf Cartel (CDG) and the Northeast Cartel (CDN) as both groups (but more importantly, various splinter groups from these two main organizations) continue the turf war south of Brownsville. Increased use of IEDs and weaponized drones has been reported semi-randomly throughout this increased period of conflict, with many innocent victims frequently being caught in the crossfire. So far the IED threat has not transitioned north across the border yet, however local authorities continue to issue the warnings nonetheless. Far more concerning are the increasingly significant small arms attacks and skirmishes that have taken place at the border itself over the past few weeks, between adversarial cartel groups.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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