Nostr Web Client

//The Wire//2300Z July 22, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: VIOLENCE CONTINUES IN SYRIA. MICROSOFT SOFTWARE VULNERABILITY RESULTS IN CYBERATTACKS ON SHAREPOINT USERS. AIRMAN KILLED DUE TO MALFUNCTIONING SERVICE PISTOL, INVESTIGATION UNDERWAY TO DETERMINE CAUSATION.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: The civil war in Syria continues as before, with various tribes continuing to consolidate gains in their respective areas. The Jolani government remains largely centered in Damascus, and most of the violence continues in Suwayda.

Analyst Comment: Most western nations are still pretending that a ceasefire exists and is in effect, when in practice there is no such cessation of hostilities as tribal violence and random executions of civilians are becoming more common on all sides. An American citizen aligned with the Druze was executed a few days ago, drawing concerns of what the international response will be to the escalating violence throughout the region. So far, there hasn't been much interest from the international community to get involved in Syria again, with the exception of Israel and Turkey (who are the biggest external nationstates involved in the conflict so far). However, this is Syria and things happen quickly here.

-HomeFront-

USA: Microsoft has faced scrutiny for their response to a recent software vulnerability that was recently announced. Over the weekend Microsoft revealed the discovery of a critical vulnerability within the Sharepoint ecosystem, which was discovered after thousands of government and enterprise-level customers experienced significant cyberattacks (mostly from well-known Chinese hacking groups).

Analyst Comment: This morning, it became known that this vulnerability was actually already known, and was identified by Trend Micro (a cybersecurity firm) which found the exploit back on July 8th during a hacking competition. Microsoft allegedly issued software fixes to patch the vulnerability, however a few days ago malign actors were observed utilizing the exploit anyway, confirming that Microsoft's efforts to patch this Sharepoint bug were ineffective.

Washington D.C. - The Department of the Air Force has launched an investigation into the M18 service pistol following the death of a service member due to safety concerns. The US Air Force will cease all issuance of the M18 platform while the investigation is ongoing, following several other government agencies which have already halted the use of this weapon system due to safety concerns.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: For those who are not aware of the implications of the M18 scandal, this scandal has been building for some time and opinions are sharply divided. Sig Sauer has been the center of much controversy surrounding the P320 (the civilian designation of the M18 service pistol) after multiple reports emerged from owners regarding the pistol not being drop-safe. Most modern handguns incorporate some sort of "drop safety" into their design, which prevents the pistol from firing if the gun is dropped. After admitting there was a problem regarding the drop safety on early P320's, Sig issued a recall and allegedly fixed the issue. However, after some time, an entirely separate series of issues began to be reported, namely that in some cases, the pistol would discharge on it's own at random while holstered. When these reports came out, Sig Sauer did everything in their power to silence these concerns, and several Public Relations efforts were undertaken to shame and gaslight P320 owners into thinking that the problems were entirely the result of the end user and not a design flaw. However, despite the months of denial, problems remained.

Several law enforcement agencies halted the use of the M18 a few months ago after very-well-documented cases confirmed that sometimes the M18 will fire a chambered round while holstered, in some cases without even being jostled or otherwise manipulated (thus removing the potential for user error from the equation). Ten days ago, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) stated that they will be transitioning back to the Glock 19 service pistol due to the concerns with the P320 platform. Five days ago, the FBI released a report at the behest of the Michigan State Police, who requested a forensic evaluation of the P320 handgun involved in a completely unprovoked discharge that occurred last month. This forensic analysis did not indicate much, as the FBI was not able to figure out what happened in this specific case. However, their testing did indicate that Sig's claims regarding some of the internal safeties could be overridden under certain conditions. But by and large, this report was mostly inconclusive in determining exactly what is causing these pistols to fire unintentionally.

Immediately after this report was released, the US Army stated that they will take no action regarding their adoption of this handgun. A few days later, a USAF Airman at the 90th Security Forces Squadron took his pistol off his belt (while still holstered), and placed the firearm on his desk. The holstered pistol then fired the round that was in the chamber, striking the service member in the chest, killing him.

As most people outside the gun world may not grasp the gravity of this situation (understandably so), this incident has the potential to be the "Ford Pinto" of the gun world. Thus, once more details come to light, this may end up being one of the biggest defense procurement scandals of all time. In short, everyone knows there's a problem with the P320/M18 platform, but right now Sig Sauer is the only entity that seems to know what's going on with their pistols, and they aren't talking. The FBI doesn't have the technical know-how to engineer a test to re-create what is going on, but pistols keep going off regardless. And this time, a service member is dead because of the hesitation and lack of aggressiveness to investigate these incidents. Sig Sauer has been sued well over a dozen times regarding this handgun's safety concerns, but once again this has been a tough problem to solve and not many people are willing to put in the work to find the flaw....or to fight VERY well funded legal efforts to stifle the identification of a problem with the P320 platform.

Most people are treating this situation with kid-gloves because the firearms community is big-business, and throwing around allegations of a design flaw that can kill someone is a dangerous game. In the civilian world, most firearms enthusiasts have been aware of the problems for some time, but once again haven't been able to nail down exactly what the problem is. Since there are other alternatives to the P320 platform on the market, often times the juice wasn't worth the squeeze when it came to figuring out what is going on here. Most people didn't feel particularly strongly about the issue either way; if someone was concerned about it then they would select a different firearm and move on, no big deal. The issues couldn't be reproduced reliably, and there was enough grey area in the civilian world to allow for some people to keep using the P320 with no issues, but others deciding that it just wasn't worth the risk after years of scandal, especially with a wealth of other firearms on the market at a similar price point that didn't have the headache of scandal surrounding them.

In the professional defense procurement world, however, it's a much different game. Regarding the M18's in the US Army alone, the contract that was awarded for this pistol was over $580 million, which means that Sig's company is on the line. And (to speculate slightly) if it eventually becomes known that Sig had prior knowledge of a design flaw that could have prevented deaths...but did nothing about it except to deny the claims and shame those voicing concerns, this has the potential to become a rather serious issue. As a reminder, Sig Sauer has the primary contract to provide not just handguns to the Army, but rifles as well. The M7 rifle was adopted to replace the M4 platform a couple of years ago, and these new rifles are just now starting to enter military use. While the M7 platform has no similar safety concerns, the M18 scandal is still not a good look for the company that is now responsible for providing the bulk of small arms to the US military.

In any case, this entire affair is emblematic of much bigger concerns within the defense industry at large. Right now, the United States is operating a peacetime military force. This will not always remain so forever. If the United States cannot reliably trust one of the cheapest individual weapons systems issued to the solider, then not much else can be trusted either...if we cannot do the little things right, there's not much hope in doing the big things right. Of course, these challenges are not out of our grasp, nor are these issues particularly unique. However, sometimes a re-examination of what we're doing - from the top of the military industrial complex, all the way down to the individual - is helpful for staying on track for the challenges ahead.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2100Z July 21, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: CHINA BEGINS MAJOR HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT IN TIBET. ALASKA AIRLINES SUFFERS IT OUTAGE, GROUNDING ALL FLIGHTS SUNDAY EVENING.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Central Asia: Over the weekend, Chinese authorities began construction on a major hydroelectric power plant in a remote region of Tibet. Groundbreaking ceremonies were held at a site adjacent to the future Yarlung Tsangpo Hydroelectric Power Plant in Nyingchi. This project is scheduled to be completed by 2033, and for comparison will allegedly be roughly three times the size of the Three Gorges Dam project.

-HomeFront-

Washington: Sunday evening an IT outage resulted in all Alaska Airlines aircraft being grounded for several hours. Roughly 150 flights were canceled as a result of the outage, and airline representatives have warned of future disruptions due to malfunctioning equipment. So far no cause for the outage has been disclosed, beyond general comments of unspecified equipment failure.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As with most Chinese industrial projects, the scale of the hydroelectric project in Tibet is impressive. However in this case, they are attempting to build the largest hydroelectric power plant in human history...directly in the middle of a region legendary for extreme seismic activity. More broadly however, there are mitigating factors which complicate this seemingly glaring mistake.

As the dam will also be built over a river that flows into India, various concerns are present regarding restricting the flow of water into India. Conversely, since India will be the primary customer of the electricity, these concerns will likely waver over time due to India's extremely poor infrastructure. In short, China knows that India is desperate for electricity, so China is going to dam up a river on the Indian border and use what would have been India's own river to produce electricity to sell back to them. Consequently, since this power plant will be used to provide electricity for export, CCP officials probably don't care as much about the national security risks when/if the plant gets destroyed due to an earthquake or due to combat action.

Considering that this dam can also be used to halt the flow of water into India, this dam highlights the often forgotten detail that the People's Republic of China rarely does anything that does not also have military value. The Yarlung Tsangpo River (which is known as the Brahmaputra River in India) accounts for roughly 7% of all of the freshwater supply in India (at least, according to the Indian government). This means that China can quite literally turn the screws on India, and apply pressure to their BRICS partner as necessary. Indian leadership, only interested in short-term gains (and cheap electricity), have either forgotten that there's no such thing as a free lunch and/or are so desperate to keep their failing electrical grid from outright collapse that they don't care about the potential military impacts that will occur in a decade when the plant comes online.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2000Z July 16, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: ISRAELI FORCES STRIKE DAMASCUS. ATTEMPTED FIREBOMBER ARRESTED IN MICHIGAN. CONCERNS MOUNT REGARDING SECRET BRITISH PLAN TO HOUSE AFGHAN MIGRANTS.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

United Kingdom: Social backlash has resulted from a court order issued yesterday, which unsealed many details pertaining to a secret government plan to relocate Afghans to the United Kingdom following the fall of Kabul in 2021. In 2022, a plan was created by the Ministry of Defense to covertly extricate roughly 4,500 people from Afghanistan and relocate them to the United Kingdom, after a data breach allegedly revealed that they were working for the British government during the war. On Tuesday, the British citizenry discovered that the true number of Afghans imported under this secret plan was actually over 16,000.

Syria: This morning Israeli forces conducted a large-scale airstrike at the Ministry of Defense building in Damascus, with initial damage assessments indicating the complex was nearly completely destroyed. The bombing of Damascus continued throughout the day.

Analyst Comment: At the moment it is uncertain as to how far Israel will go (for this specific engagement), however it's possible these are the next steps of their much larger campaign. For additional context, PM Netanyahu's criminal trial was scheduled to begin today, however court was adjourned due to the strikes. Before the cancellation, U.S. Ambassador Mike Huckabee was in attendance at the court.

-HomeFront-

Michigan: One assailant has been arrested in conjunction with a firebombing attempt that was carried out at the GOP headquarters in Dickinson County on Saturday. Local authorities state that Zayn Edward Arcand attempted to throw an incendiary device at the facility, however the device failed to ignite during the attack. Arcand was arrested shortly after the attack.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The Afghan scandal in the United Kingdom comes as concerns grow regarding the censorship of the citizenry. One of the more important aspects of this case is that everyone knew this was happening at the time in 2022, however a court order banned speech from media groups referencing this scandal. Now that this order has been rescinded, more details pertaining to immigration issues are likely to come to light over the next few weeks.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2000Z July 15, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE UNITED STATES. CONCERNS GROWING REGARDING SHIFTING PRIORITIES IN WASHINGTON.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Syria: Conflict has erupted once again, as fighting has flared up between Druze militias and the collection of Bedouin and pro-government forces loosely aligned under al-Jolani's new regime. A few hundred casualties have been reported in the town of Suwayda over the weekend, and a very hesitant "ceasefire" has been declared after this latest round of fighting.

-HomeFront-

Colorado: Following a high-profile kidnapping attempt that occurred in Aurora last year, a District Attorney has faced backlash for her efforts to free the perpetrator of the attack. Solomon Galligan was arrested for attempting to kidnap a child on the street in Aurora last year, and on Monday reports emerged that DA Amy Padden was attempting to drop all charges against him because he was found mentally incompetent to stand trial.

USA: Flooding incidents continue as before, with heavy rainfall causing flooding throughout New York and New Jersey overnight. In Texas, recovery efforts continue amid constant heavy rainfall, with roughly 160x persons still being reported missing from the initial flooding crisis that struck the Guadalupe River basin two weeks ago. The casualty count for the floods in Texas so far remains at 132x reported fatalities.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: At the moment, the White House appears to be radically shifting priorities on many different issues. The shift to cover up the Epstein client list, and to hush-up all aspects of the case is without question a bridge too far for most people to accept. Claiming that the largest known human trafficking network in the world simply had no clients is an incredulous turning point in history that President Trump will not be able to walk away from hoping that everyone forgets. Likewise, relations between the United States and Russia have deteriorated further following the events of the past few days. The war in Ukraine has sharply veered away from any sort of peace agreement, with the United States ramping up arms shipments to Ukraine once again. Though nothing is confirmed at this point, the usual leaks have indicated that the White House is considering the next wave of aid to Ukraine, and what weapons systems it will entail. Some whispers suggest the US will allow Ukraine to increase direct attacks on Moscow with American arms, and other rumors suggest that the US is looking to send more capable arms and missiles with which to continue the war. Time will tell what is decided, but the bottom line is that the flow chart is pointing toward an increase in the war's activity, and all parties are trending away from peace talks.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2100Z July 14, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: WHITE HOUSE LOOKS TO TARIFF RUSSIA AS PEACE TALKS STAGNATE. FLOODING CONTINUES IN TEXAS AS MORE RAINFALL ARRIVES.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-HomeFront-

Kentucky: On Sunday, a shooting was reported in Lexington at the Richmond Road Baptist Church after a brief police pursuit. Local authorities state that Guy House briefly engaged a police officer near the Blue Grass Airport during a traffic stop, wounding the officer in the initial incident. House then fled the scene, entering the Church that was located adjacent to the airport. Upon entry, House murdered two people, and wounded several others. House was engaged by pursuing officers, and was killed at the scene.

Texas: Following last week's devastating floods, heavy rainfall returned over the weekend to the same area. Roughly 6-10 inches of rain fell throughout central Texas, and more precipitation is expected throughout the week. Search and Rescue operations have been halted a few times due to flooding risks re-emerging throughout the region.

Washington D.C. - Relations with Russia have deteriorated following efforts by the White House to end the war in Ukraine falling flat. This morning President Trump stated that the United States is looking to implement a tariff of 100% on Russian goods if a peace deal is not reached in 50 days.

This afternoon, the Pentagon awarded xAI's Grok a $200 million contract to integrate the LLM throughout the defense community.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Russia is already the most heavily-sanctioned nation on Earth, with very little trade being undertaken between the United States and Russia. American imports of Russian goods amount to roughly $3.5 billion per year, which (for context) is roughly 10 times less than the GDP of Vermont. Consequently, engaging in a trade spat with Russia is unlikely to yield the intended effect.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z July 10, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: MERCHANT VESSELS SUNK IN RED SEA. FLOODING CONTINUES AROUND THE UNITED STATES.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Two commercial vessels have been sunk off the coast of Yemen by Houthi forces over the past few days. On July 6th, the M/V MAGIC SEAS was struck by cruise missiles and Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs), which was rapidly followed up with small arms and RPG attacks via militants in small boats. The next day, the M/V ETERNITY C was attacked in a similar manner. Both vessels suffered severe flooding, finally sinking overnight.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - This morning the FDA granted approval for Moderna's new "Spikevax" COVID-19 vaccine for children 6 months old to 11 years old.

Following concerns expressed by the agricultural community, the USDA has reversed their stance on allowing cattle to be imported from Mexico. The decision to re-close livestock imports was made following a new infestation of New World Screwworm (NWS) being reported at a higher latitude than previously disclosed by Mexican officials, and that NWS was present in herds of livestock much closer to the US/Mexico border than previously known. As of right now, all ports of entry are closed to Mexican cattle, while the parasite continues to spread throughout Mexico.

Southern USA: Flooding incidents remain constant as severe weather systems continue to develop throughout the region. More severe flooding was reported throughout North Carolina, with water rescues continuing in Durham and many downed trees causing power outages. The Graham–Mebane Water Treatment Plant went offline due to flooding damage, causing a brief water shortage throughout the city of Mebane.

The flooding recovery in Texas continues as the total casualty count climbs to 120x fatalities and around 173x people still being unaccounted for. In New Mexico, 3x fatalities were reported as a result of the floods over the past few days, as flash floods struck the town of Ruidoso.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Heavy rain is still being forecast for many areas throughout the American South and along the east coast for the next few days. Considering the rain that has already fallen, in many areas the ground is already saturated, making flooding and landslides much more of a risk. Now is the time to prepare, and consider the impact of weather events becoming much more severe than originally forecast.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z July 9, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: TENSIONS RISE BETWEEN GERMANY AND CHINA REGARDING RED SEA INCIDENT. TAIWAN BEGINS LARGE-SCALE MILITARY EXERCISE. WHITE HOUSE ANNOUNCES NEW TARIFF ON COPPER.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Far East: Taiwan began their largest annual military drill yesterday evening, with this year's exercises being the most substantial to date. This drill is scheduled to last 10x days, roughly double the length of last year's maneuvers.

Germany: Controversy has resulted from an incident that occurred in the Red Sea a few days ago. German authorities have stated that a Chinese warship operating in the Red Sea deliberately targeted one of their aircraft with a laser with the indent to blind the pilots and/or damage sensor equipment. This incident prompted Germany to summon the Chinese Ambassador to account for the situation, and tensions between the two nations have increased as a result.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - Yesterday the White House announced implementing a 50% tariff on all imported copper. Following this announcement, the price of copper skyrocketed by 13% to a new high today.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The long-term economic impacts of pumping the price of copper are best analyzed by economists. However, the real-world impacts to the average person are plain to see. Anytime a precious metal sharply increases, theft of that metal also rises. Copper theft is already a growing problem in most areas, so opportunistic criminals will likely take advantage of this new high to steal and scrap everything that isn't bolted down (and also most things that ARE bolted down), at least in the short term while the price of copper remains very volatile.

Regarding the lasing incident in the Red Sea, these types of events happen very frequently. However, these more soft-targeting efforts are generally a good indicator for which way the wind is blowing in the international arena. Right now China is not very friendly with the west, but particularly the European Union at large.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z July 8, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: WHITE HOUSE REVERSES STANCE ON EPSTEIN SCANDAL. USA MAKES PLANS FOR RESTARTING ARMS SHIPMENTS TO UKRAINE. TRUMP STATES NO DEPORTATION AMNESTY FOR ILLEGALS, EXCEPT AGRICULTURAL WORKERS WHO CAN STAY UNDER NEW WORK PROGRAM.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-HomeFront-

Texas: Disaster recovery continues following the recent floods that have struck the state. Over 109x fatalities have been reported in conjunction with the flooding in Kerr County and the Guadalupe River basin. Local officials are starting to shift rescue operations into recovery, as the last live victim was recovered on Friday. Nevertheless, the search for the missing continues.

North Carolina: Following the landfall of a tropical depression over the weekend, severe flooding struck the Capitol region. Dozens of water rescues were conducted over the past two days in Chapel Hill and Durham, and 4x fatalities have been reported so far as a result of the floods.

Washington D.C. - Political activities continue as various press statements and news conferences over the past few days have resulted in a shifting of priorities for the White House. Most notably, the White House has changed perspective on the Epstein case. After months of hype surrounding the potential for arrests, the White House and DoJ have stated that no arrests of Epstein's clients will occur nor will any further documents be released regarding this case. President Trump also verbally berated the journalist inquiring about this change of stance, calling the question a "waste of time".

Concerning immigration, President Trump also stated that illegal immigrants will not be granted amnesty, however agricultural and service workers will be granted reprieve from deportation under a work program (the details of which have yet to be released).

President Trump has also expressed interest in re-arming Ukraine, following last week's slowdown of supplying Ukraine with missiles for their Patriot batteries. Yesterday afternoon the Pentagon confirmed that they will resume weapon shipments to Ukraine.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Regarding the flooding in Texas, as unfortunate and inflammatory as it is, the potential for malign action must be considered. Concerns are already growing regarding the operations of the Rainmaker Technology Corporation and their weather modification programs that have taken place throughout Texas. Augustus Doricko, the CEO of Rainmaker admitted to their company conducting operations in south-central Texas on July 2nd...two days before the severe flooding occurred. Additionally, many are wondering why cloud seeding operations were conducted if the remnants of a Tropical Storm were expected throughout the area, and no drought was declared.

Of course, it will take many years of investigation to determine the links between all of this, but since time is of the essence and Hurricane Season is well underway, it would be wise to re-examine risk assessments to factor in current events. From a risk management perspective, if hazardous weather is forecasted, it would be wise to plan for that weather system to produce more severe weather than originally forecasted, just out of an abundance of caution. Especially if located in areas where weather modification efforts are being undertaken with zero oversight whatsoever. However, at the end of the day, if you are chest-deep in water trying to save your family, it won't matter if this is the work of a company to manipulate atmospheric conditions, or if it was a freak weather system. At that point, you're in the mud having to make tough decisions. Assess the risk, start taking weather systems more seriously, and have a plan for what to do if the forecast underestimates a situation when it occurs.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z July 7, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: FLOODING DEVASTATES AMERICAN SOUTH. MULTIPLE AMBUSHES REPORTED AT ICE FACILITIES IN TEXAS.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-HomeFront-

Texas: Severe flooding continues to impact the state following unusual weather systems producing much more precipitation than originally forecasted. Concerning casualties, 82x fatalities have been reported so far. Hundreds of rescues by small boat and helicopter have been conducted, and Search and Rescue operations continue throughout the Guadalupe and Llano River basins.

Texas: This morning, a small arms engagement was reported at the CBP annex in McAllen. Authorities state that an assailant (who has not yet been identified) was waiting in ambush with multiple firearms to target CBP agents arriving for work this morning. After a short firefight, the individual was killed. This shooting comes two days after a separate skirmish was reported at the Prairieland Detention Facility in Alvarado.

Friday night, an individual who was visibly armed was acting suspiciously in the vicinity of the Prairieland Detention Facility. Beyond these initial factual details, the timing of events becomes unclear. However, as this situation was unfolding, a group of insurgents were observed maneuvering tactically to the west of the facility, taking up a position haphazardly concealed in a treeline running north/south approximately 50m to the west of the facility's perimeter fence.

Shortly after this observation, this element launched their attack by setting off fireworks either as a diversionary maneuver, to conceal the sound of gunfire, or to prompt police to come out of the facility to enter the killzone of their arranged ambush. During the fray, a small arms engagement erupted outside this facility, as the element of insurgents in the treeline opened fire on one of the officers attempting to investigate the situation. No one was killed during the exchange, however one officer was wounded. A total of 11x people have been arrested so far in conjunction with this attack.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The shooters arrested in conjunction with the Prairieland Detention Center skirmish appear to not necessarily be Cartel-affiliated, but the more garden-variety far-left-insurgent-type. Cartel members don't often take breaks during a small arms battle to spray paint graffiti (as has been reported taking place during this engagement), nor do more organized and professional militants usually get caught en masse like this. All of the attackers were wearing body armor at the time of their arrest, but local reports state that only one firearm was recovered (the rifle that jammed and concluded the attack). As such, this is either a very kinetic "protest" event, or a very poor ambush.

Concerning the other small arms engagement (the shooting in McAllen), it's possible there is a link between the two, though authorities have not speculated publicly on this yet. Prior to his attack, the McAllen shooter had spray painted the words "Cordis Die" on his vehicle, which was used to ram the gate at the Border Patrol facility to launch the attack. This phrase is most commonly associated with video game culture (such as the Call of Duty franchise), so it's possible that the attack in Alvarado could be linked, even if it's just a loose link based on ideology. Both attacks were conducted with very obvious public relations efforts in mind, and symbology/politics was certainly a focal point of the evidence left behind. Nevertheless, there are so many attacks on Border Patrol facilities at present that it's hard to establish any clear link between all of the groups who have chosen to conduct targeting efforts.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/DXmy-DXp9v4

//The Wire//1800Z July 4, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: MIGRANT CRIMINALS INCREASINGLY IMPLEMENTING ADVANCED TACTICS DURING CRIMES. TRUMP STATES NO PROGRESS MADE WITH PUTIN ON ENDING UKRAINE WAR. NORTHCOM DEPLOYS MARINES TO FLORIDA.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - Yesterday President Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone, to discuss various issues pertaining to the Middle East and the war in Ukraine. After the phone call, President Trump stated that he was not happy with the discussion, as no progress was made on concluding the war in Ukraine.

Florida: Yesterday afternoon, U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) released a statement confirming that 200 U.S. Marines will be deployed to the state to provide logistical support to ICE. The press release also stated that more deployments are expected.

California: A total of 7x Central and South American migrants were arrested yesterday in conjunction with a jewelry heist that occurred back in May. Local authorities state that the Bidrussian Jewelry store in Glendale was burglarized by the seven assailants, who exhibited more advanced tactics than normally presented during a standard smash-and-grab. The city's 911 service and internet connectivity was impacted due to the thieves cutting communications cables and using signal jammers during the robbery.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The use of signal jammers is interesting in that it's a major indicator for the progression of the sophistication of crime in an area. All of the assailants were caught, so it didn't work out too well for them in the end, however this is the latest example of how criminals are learning tactics from around the world. Criminals in South Africa, for instance, are legendary for their widespread use of jammers during criminal activities, both to prevent victims from calling emergency services, but also to disable WiFi cameras and GPS tracking devices. Similarly, the cutting of communications cables has been noted as being effective due to the commonality of climate activists cutting cables in sabotage operations throughout Europe.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z July 3, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: AX ATTACK STRIKES GERMANY. JUDGES CONTINUE TO HALT IMMIGRATION AND DEPORTATION POLICIES. RECONCILIATION BILL PASSES IN CONGRESS.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Germany: Dissent is mounting following a wave of assaults at public swimming pools throughout the nation. Following the assault of 8x children by Syrian immigrants last week, German authorities have implemented a nationwide media campaign to educate immigrants to the idea that it is not acceptable to assault children.

Continuing the trend of violent attacks, an unidentified assailant conducted an ax attack on a train in Bavaria this morning. 4x people were wounded in the attack. The assailant has not been identified (as is standard policy) however locals who witnessed the attack state that attacker was Syrian, however this has not been confirmed yet.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - Despite the recent ruling from the US Supreme Court regarding the judgements of lower courts, a federal judge (Judge Brian Cogan) has blocked the White House's efforts to remove the Temporary Protection Status (TPS) from roughly 500,000 Haitian migrants. Separately, a different judge (Judge Randolph Moss) ruled against President Trump's order to increase scrutiny on those seeking political asylum in the United States from Mexico.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In Congress, controversy continues regarding the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB). Following last-minute political deals, filibusters, and various political moves, the bill was passed in the House today and is expected to be on President Trump's desk for signature tomorrow. Considering this bill's long history, being introduced in the House, sent to the Senate where changes were made, and then sent back to the House, it will probably be some time before the true contents of the omnibus bill are examined closely. Most of the political pork added to the bill to pretend to appease voters in the House was immediately stripped by the Senate, and further changes were made once the bill landed back in the House.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z July 2, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: IRANIANS CLOSE AIRSPACE TO COMMERCIAL AVIATION. FBI GETS NEW HEADQUARTERS BUILDING.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: This afternoon Iranian airspace was closed along the western border of the nation, ceasing all commercial aviation traffic until tomorrow. This comes a few hours after Iranian authorities briefly opened their airspace to commercial traffic for some international flights.

Analyst Comment: As this is a developing situation, it's hard to determine what's going on. Normally, the closure of Iranian airspace indicates some sort of security threat, however their airspace has mostly been closed for weeks now. It's possible that a mixup occurred, or that the Iranians changed their mind regarding re-opening their skies to commercial traffic. Either way it's still a tense situation all around.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - This morning FBI Director Kash Patel announced that the decision to move the FBI's headquarters has been finalized, and that the FBI will be moving from the J. Edgar Hoover Building down the street to the upgraded and modernized Ronald Reagan Building with offices also expanding to include the old USAID offices in the International Trade Center building.

Texas: This morning four individuals were arrested in conjunction with an investigation into a kickback scheme in Houston. One of the individuals arrested was an ICE agent, and allegedly worked with a local bail bond company to lift deportation retainer classifications, for a fee.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As a reminder, there are still plans to conduct another round of No Kings protests on July 4th. However, considering the abysmal turnout the first time, most of these events probably won't happen or remain comparatively low-risk. The protests planned for July 4th have received none of the media blitz the first protests experienced, and therefore probably won't be that impactful. However, any event that brings large crowds and poor security practices presents risk in our modern times, so being aware of these events is still worthwhile.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z July 1, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: CARTEL VIOLENCE CONTINUES IN MEXICO. USDA ANNOUNCES OPENING OF CATTLE IMPORTS DESPITE PARASITE OUTBREAK.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Mexico: Cartel violence continues as before, amid a recent wave of murders that have taken place around the country over the past few weeks. Last night, several human remains were discovered hanging from a bridge in Culiacán, with a total of 20x remains discovered throughout the site.

Europe: Tensions between Germany and Poland have been on the rise, as recent changes in German immigration policy have caused problems for Poland. Various protests have occurred along the border in Poland, as citizens have voiced concern with Germany deporting illegal immigrants from their country, into Poland.

Analyst Comment: This practice has been ongoing for some time, and many legal battles are in progress pertaining to immigration issues that have caused problems among European nations. Nevertheless, dissent is growing among the citizenry with regards to how governments are handling immigration issues.

-HomeFront-

Texas: Yesterday afternoon the US Department of Agriculture announced that the import of foreign livestock from Mexico will recommence on July 7th. The import of all livestock had previously been halted in May due to an outbreak of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Mexico, a flesh-eating parasite which is infamous for devastating entire herds of cattle, deer, and bison.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The decision to begin re-opening imports of foreign livestock has been received with raised eyebrows for two main reasons: For one, screwworm is very serious and the wisdom of re-opening imports while the outbreak is ongoing is questionable. And secondly the press statement by the USDA essentially boiled down to the USDA trusting Mexico to increase parasite surveillance operations. Trust is hard to come by these days, and this move to re-open imports is at odds with the concerns raised by the state of Texas concerning this disease.

Texas agricultural agencies, research groups, and health officials, recognizing the risks posed by NWS have begun more intense efforts to combat the disease. Governor Abbott signed a letter last week ordering the creation of various Task Forces to coordinate and share resources to combat the cross-border transmission of the parasite.

The press statement also indicates that the USDA is more or less taking the position of opening up cattle imports, and hoping it doesn't spread. The USDA has been increasing operations to release sterile NWS flies throughout Texas and Mexico, however the timing of this is suspect considering that it was the Mexican Minister of Agriculture that requested the acceleration of timelines concerning the re-importing of Mexican cattle. Since roughly 20% of the beef consumed in the United States originates from Mexico, the decision to allow imports during an outbreak is probably based more on economics than medicine. Time will tell if this is a good decision or not. On the one hand halting beef imports for too much longer will probably cause a rise in prices at the supermarket, but on the other hand NWS was only eradicated in the US during the 1960's after long and arduous efforts, so if this gets out of hand again this has the potential to become very serious once more.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z June 30, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: FIREFIGHTERS TARGETED IN IDAHO AMBUSH, MULTIPLE FATALITIES REPORTED. TARGETING CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: The situation remains tenuous throughout the region as another drone attack strikes Tehran. This afternoon, locals reported witnessing a kamikaze drone attack taking place in Tehran, which is being claimed to have targeted a senior IRGC official.

Analyst Comment: As this is a developing situation, very few details are confirmed. However, yesterday anti-aircraft batteries throughout the city were observed engaging targets, which would add more validity to the claims of small drones being used to target senior defense officials. Reports from last night also suggest that Iranian leadership is continuing to crack down on spies and insurgents carrying out attacks within Tehran, which is continuing to be a problem despite the ceasefire.

-HomeFront-

Idaho: Yesterday afternoon a small arms engagement was reported on Canfield Mountain just east of Cour d'Alene. At approximately 1330L, firefighters responded to a call of a brush fire on Canfield Mountain, in the vicinity of Nettleton Gulch Road. Upon arrival on scene, firefighters unknowingly maneuvered into the kill zone of a deliberately laid ambush, with the fire being started to lure authorities in to the location. In the initial ambush, 2x firefighters were KIA, and several others were wounded. After some time, local authorities stated that the body of a male individual (presumed to be the shooter) was recovered from the scene, along with a firearm. This morning, the shooter was identified as Wess Roley.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Regarding the verbiage used to describe the situation in Idaho, additional context would be helpful to discern the threat. The term "ambush" is technically correct in describing the shooting, however this term is also likely to imply that a classic L-shaped ambush was laid by a professional military force. In this case, this is not what happened at all. The shooter briefly spoke to firefighters who were arriving on scene, before climbing a tree and engaging them with a shotgun from close range. Considering that many people around the nation are currently concerned with various threats of terrorism, it is important to understand that while horrific, this incident does not bear the hallmarks of a more professional and sophisticated terror attack.

Incidents like this often highlight additional concerns that would be wise to consider. For instance, even before the shooter's identity was even known, many "journalists" were pushing a narrative for political purposes even as the incident was ongoing. Even now, a full day after the attack (and knowing the shooter's identity), many news organizations have not issued corrections to their articles that attempted to paint this situation as some sort of crazed militia activity related to White Supremacy groups (or the general idea of such). This horrific attack was the result of one individual who's success relied not upon military planning tactics, but on the fire department (understandably) not expecting to roll up to a fire and find someone shooting at them from a tree.

However, regardless of the rhetoric that is already being spread, it is extremely crucial to remember that in the heat of the moment, the underlying politics and ideology are less important than the situation at hand; political discussions are best served after the situation is resolved, not while bullets are still whizzing by overhead. It is also easy to forget that, regardless of the suspicious nature of attacks like this, at the end of the day real people are dead. This will be important to remember as multiple sides will seek to spin this event to suit their narratives.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out! https://youtu.be/TbJuYCzLThc

//The Wire//2300Z June 27, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: SCOTUS SIDES WITH TRUMP ON LOWER COURTS ISSUING BLANKET RULINGS. PROTESTS IN EUROPE CONTINUE.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: Various demonstrations and protests continue as usual. In Poland, demonstrations were conducted today regarding the migrant crisis, with Poles expressing dissatisfaction with the deportation of migrants to their country.

Yesterday a small protest was reported in Ljubljana, Slovenia, following the NATO summit this week. This summit largely did not discuss much of any importance, with the exception of again urging member states to pledge 5% of their defense budget to NATO's collective defense.

AC: Demonstrations in eastern European nations often end up being a good barometer for gauging how the east/west dynamic is developing. This time, Slovenians protested against NATO and the United States for a variety of reasons, but mostly due to the recent activities in the Middle East.

Middle East: Tensions in Gaza have increased following a report from Israeli media claiming that IDF soldiers were ordered to target civilians seeking food aid. In the report, interviewed IDF soldiers explained the long-standing practices regarding the targeting of civilians, such as the practice of shooting civilians "who appeared to pose no threat".

AC: The Israeli Military Advocate General has also ordered an internal investigation into these targeting efforts, and several nations have issued statements of condemnation regarding this practice. These reports come after months of complaints from international aid groups being kinetically targeted throughout the region.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - This morning the US Supreme Court issued a few rulings of note. SCOTUS ruled in favor of President Trump concerning his lawsuit to prevent activist judges from exceeding their jurisdictions to issue rulings more broad than the initial scope of the initial lawsuit. In effect, this means that President Trump's executive order to ban birthright citizenship for illegals and for those on temporary visas is in effect.

Similarly, this morning the White House announced that they will be terminating the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) of roughly 500,000 Haitian nationals, continuing the efforts from a few months ago to halt/slow immigration from Haiti under humanitarian programs.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The SCOTUS did not address the merits of Trump's birthright citizenship Executive Order itself; this judgement only re-affirmed the long-standing policy of preventing judges from issuing judgements outside their jurisdiction. However, the follow-on effects of this judgement will be interesting to follow as this affects a few hot-button issues that is currently at the heart of American discourse (most notably immigration-related issues).

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z June 26, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: MORE ARRESTS MADE FOLLOWING WEEKEND NEEDLE ATTACKS IN FRANCE. DEBATE CONTINUES REGARDING SUCCESS OF BOMBING RAID AT FORDOW.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

France: More arrests have been made in conjunction with last weekend's mass needle-attacks at a nationwide series of music festivals around the nation. Over the past few days, a total of 12x suspects have been arrested after over 145x people were stabbed with syringes filled with various harmful substances at various events around the country. Most of the victims are women, who were intentionally targeted as posts on social media urged the syringe attacks before the events got underway. 13x police officers were also stabbed with needles during the festivities.

AC: Though the sheer scale of mass needle attacks is very concerning, this has happened many times before throughout France. In 2022, over 300x people were wounded in similar attacks. However, in traditional fashion, the names of the suspects who have been arrested have been withheld from the public.

Middle East: This afternoon a drone attack was carried out in Tehran, targeting a residential apartment building.

AC: So far details are sketchy at best, but there's been no response from any interested party, even though this is probably another ceasefire violation.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - Much debate abounds concerning the recent strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. President Trump has condemned the initial intelligence leak that indicated that the strikes were not successful, and has blamed the leak on Democratic representatives in Congress (though few details have clarified this claim). Currently, all parties involved (to include every governmental resource and the mainstream media) all concur that the Iranian nuclear weapons program was set back considerably by the strikes, and that the American bombing operation was an overwhelming success. However, all sides have also stated that Iran possesses several hundred pounds of highly-enriched Uranium, which allegedly remains unaccounted for.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: A more forensic Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) of the strikes at Fordow will need to be conducted, but it's going to be almost impossible to confirm with any certainty whether or not America's finest bunker-buster munitions would pierce deep enough to catastrophically destroy the vast array of underground enrichment and processing facilities. The Iranians will seek to downplay losses (so they won't exactly be publishing photos of damage) and the Israelis/Americans will want to over-state the impact this targeting effort had. The truth will be challenging to discern via independent sources as everyone involved seeks to lie in one way or the other.

Nevertheless, the world will work with the information that is available, and micro-analyze every rock and pebble out of place at these facilities over the next few months, all with the goal of determining whether or not mission success was achieved. Speaking purely from a historical perspective, the debate of "can a GBU-57 actually pierce Fordow?" has been ongoing for decades. Of course, there are very few indicators that would actually provide proof of any internal damage to the facility (there will be no crater to speak of for an explosion that takes place hundreds of feet under a mountain). The only entities that for-sure, 100% know the damage that was caused by the strikes are the Americans/Israeli's (via spies) and the Iranians themselves. In short, the Iranians know how deep to dig their tunnels now, one way or the other.

In a larger sense, these details are important as exceptionally grave errors often result in a conflict where one belligerent makes the assessment that a certain target was destroyed, when in fact...it was not. In any case, from the outside looking in the American people don't have any solid way of knowing for sure if Iran's capability to create a nuclear weapon has been degraded. And if the Iranians were not sprinting to create a nuclear weapon before these strikes, they certainly are now. In the atomic age, it is not battleships nor aircraft carriers that were sought to be destroyed in a sneak-attack over the weekend...it is the capability to rapidly assemble a nuclear weapon. Anything short of the catastrophic and total destruction of these facilities guarantees that a proper attempt at achieving the status of a nuclear state will be undertaken.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1215Z June 22, 2025//

//IMMEDIATE//

//BLUF: UNITED STATES CONDUCTS AIRSTRIKES IN IRAN.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

Middle East: A few moments ago, President Trump posted a statement on social media, confirming that a series of airstrikes has been carried out at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. In the post, President Trump stated that all of the aircraft involved are out of Iranian airspace, and has insinuated that this is a one-and-done series of attacks.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As this is a developing situation, no additional details have been provided. President Trump has not yet held a press conference, nor has the White House, so every American is discovering that the United States has struck Iran from a single social media post. A few moments after this announcement, President Trump's account on Truth Social went offline, leading many to wonder if this was some sort of cybersecurity event.

Further details are expected to emerge in due time, however right now we have nothing but the post from President Trump's Truth Social account. At this time, Congress has NOT declared war on Iran, however, if the hundreds of aircraft that have been moved into the CENTCOM theater over the past few days are any indication, this is probably not a one-and-done series of attacks. There are simply too many resources spread throughout the Middle East for this to be over just yet.

Strategic Indications and Warnings: HFGCS traffic has been elevated over the past few days/weeks, however no extremely concerning EAMs have been detected over the past few hours. Radio chatter on the Russian BearNet is also quiet at this time.

This strike lines up with the timing of the B2 Spirit stealth bombers which took off from Whiteman AFB this morning with what was assessed at the time to be a full payload of munitions.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z June 20, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: STRATEGIC AVIATION AND NAVAL FORCES CONTINUE STAGING IN MIDDLE EAST.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Targeting efforts by Iranian forces continue with multiple missile strikes being reported in Haifa overnight, targeting the Negev Advanced Technologies Park. Israeli targeting continues in similar fashion in Tehran. The United Kingdom has evacuated their Embassy in Tehran, and the United States continues to maneuver substantial resources into the Middle East. Maersk has announced that they are suspending all operations in the port city of Haifa while the war remains kinetic.

AC: This afternoon a 5.4M earthquake was detected originating in the vicinity of Tehran. Considering that tensions are extremely high throughout the region, this has led many to theorize that some sort of weapons test was carried out (as nuclear tests are normally detected by seismic sensors). However, at the moment, nothing points to this outcome. The USGS plots the earthquake at an estimated depth of 10km, which is far deeper than a nuclear test would be. Additionally, the seismic signature of a man-made explosive device can easily be discerned from natural phenomenon, so if it was a man-made blast every seismologist in the world will be able to verify it.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As the war continues in the Middle East, a bit of background knowledge may be helpful in understanding the grand strategy of the military tactics at hand. Both Israel and Iran are unique nations in that geography separates them, yet neither have any real expeditionary capability. In short, if a nation is at war with another...but doesn't share a land border or have a military with an amphibious capability... the most that nation can do is more or less to lob missiles at their adversary. So far, both nations have relied upon this long-distance targeting means as their primary way of waging war: Iran launches missiles, and the Israelis drop bombs.

However, Israeli military doctrine is heavily reliant upon deception and subterfuge in order to project influence even within the nations they are at war with. Right now, it is becoming more clear that Israeli Special Forces are able to operate on the ground within Iran, in many cases with impunity. Israel was able to create a "drone base" in the desert from which their initial attacks were launched within Iran itself (echoing Ukraine's sneak attack in Russia). Similarly, Iranian forces have discovered several instances of equipment emplaced on the ground very close to sensitive sites; overnight the Iranians discovered a remotely-controlled Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) launcher emplaced outside Tehran, in addition to a small truck that was laden with drones (again, exactly as was used by Ukraine recently). Several propaganda videos of strikes in Iran have raised questions as to exactly how the footage was taken. For example, Israeli forces released the footage of the strikes on the Arak Heavy Water facility...footage which appears to have been filmed from an elevated position on the ground...not from a drone as one might expect.

This will be important to consider as American involvement appears be looming. In less than two months, large-scale sneak-attacks via drones and asymmetric warfare tactics have become normalized in two major conflicts. This is not a threat that is years away; this threat has gone from the drawing board to operationally proven (twice) in just a few weeks.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//0300Z June 13, 2025//

//PRIORITY//

//BLUF: ISRAEL STRIKES IRANIAN NUCLEAR SITES. IRAN VOWS RETALIATION//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: A few moments ago Israeli forces conducted large-scale missile strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities scattered around the nation. The Uranium enrichment and storage facility at Natanz is currently on fire, and the Heavy Water manufacturing center at Arak has also been struck. Several decapitation strikes were reported among key leaders in Tehran, with the leadership of the Iranian nuclear program being the chief target for the first wave of targeting efforts.

AC: Regarding other sites, the fog of war prevents an accurate assessment of which locations have been struck, so the battle damage assessments will have to wait a few hours while the dust settles. Iranian media is currently reporting that Iran is expected to officially declare war soon, though this may be more of a reflection of battlefield excitement rather than official government policy.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - Immediately after the first strikes were reported, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the United States was not involved in these strikes.

Texas: A ground stop has been issued for the George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston.

AC: At the moment it's not clear as to what the ground stop is in reference to, other than a general security incident. More details will have to follow later on.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Right now, the immediate concerns center around a near-mid-far threat assessment model, both in terms of physical distance and time: Local threats take precedent over far-away threats, and fast-paced, time sensitive problems must be handled before long term problems that can wait. At the moment, 'near' threat concerns involve potential malign actors conducting attacks in the United States, 'mid-range' concerns pertain to logistics, shipping, and the US personnel that may be within range of any potential Iranian counterattack. Long-term concerns will develop later on as the world awaits Iran's response. Iran does not have the capability to directly strike the American homeland, but they can certainly strike many critical American sites around the Middle East. Considering that Iran had at least four days of very obvious advanced notice of these attacks, that will be a factor to consider as events develop.

Locally to the homefronts of most Western nations, the chief concern is that of Iranian agents, saboteurs, and sympathizers that may be located in positions to cause problems. There are no specific threats that have come to light regarding potential terrorism within the homeland as retaliation, however those indicators would probably not be discernible before any attack anyway.

Regardless of the politics behind this action, both pro-Israel and pro-Palestine protests are now extremely high-risk events to attend or be located near. Currently the social situation in the United States is primed for any kinetic activity which may strike the match and light the fuse of the tensions that have been building for some time. The context of the thousands of kinetic protests being undertaken right now in nearly every single US State must also be considered; there is enough overlap between the demonstrators currently causing problems, and those who seek to carry out more substantial attacks.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2200Z June 12, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: COMMERCIAL AIRLINER CRASHES IN INDIA, 260 FATALITIES CONFIRMED SO FAR. TENSIONS CONTINUE IN MIDDLE EAST. RIOTS CONTINUE IN NORTHERN IRELAND AND USA.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

India: This morning Air India Flight 171 crashed shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad. The aircraft impacted the student housing at B.J. Medical College, a teaching hospital and large medical facility. Local authorities have claimed that there was only one survivor among the 242 souls on board. There is no confirmation on casualties sustained on the ground, however locals have provided the figure of 260 casualties all total (both those in the aircraft and on the ground). Aircraft debris is spread over a wide area throughout a densely-populated region, so the casualty count is expected to rise as recovery efforts continue.

Northern Ireland: Protests and riots alike continued throughout the region overnight, with locals continuing arson attacks on migrant centers. Yesterday afternoon, locals discovered that the family members of the migrants who assaulted a child (the incident that started all of this) were temporarily evacuated to a Leisure Center in Larne, which was promptly burned down by locals. Riots continued in Ballymena, and vandalism efforts have disrupted local train services as obstacles and fires were set on train tracks in a few locations around the area.

Middle East: Indications and warnings continue to mount regarding a potential war with Iran. The US State Department continues to issue region-wide warnings, though no specifics have been provided regarding the potential threats.

AC: Considering all possibilities, the recent threat warnings issued by the White House could also be a ruse, specifically an ambiguity-decreasing information operation. In other words, it could be a trick to pressure the Iranians into making a deal with regards to their nuclear aspirations. Either way, it is a dangerous game, and increased vigilance is recommended in any case due to the uncertainty of how events might transpire over the next few days.

-HomeFront-

Texas: Governor Greg Abbott has ordered the deployment of approximately 5,000 National Guard soldiers in preparation for the mass demonstration events planned for this weekend. These forces will augment the thousands of local and state police which have been tasked with keeping order during the thousands of protests that will take place around the nation on Saturday.

California: This afternoon U.S. Senator Alex Padilla was arrested after attempting to disrupt a press conference at which DHS Secretary Kristi Noem was speaking. Senator Padilla resisted being removed from the room after causing the disruption, and was subsequently arrested by force in the hallway outside the event. The Senator was released shortly after the incident, and as of yet has not been charged.

USA: This afternoon a large scale communications outage was reported throughout the nation. Cloudflare, AWS, and Google Cloud all reported simultaneous issues with their platforms and services.

AC: No cause of the outages has been reported, however this is a major incident considering the timing of multiple independent systems going offline at the same time.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: When it comes to the chaos and kinetic activities in Northern Ireland, there are two main lines of effort by involved parties: There are the ethnically Irish protesters-turned-rioters, who have engaged in arson attacks in migrant communities in response to immigration issues. Separate from these incidents, looting has been observed taking place, which is largely being carried out by migrant communities themselves. This is complicating efforts to host legitimately peaceful demonstrations, as the situation in some areas is simply too chaotic to determine exactly what's going on. The situation in Northern Ireland has never been simple to describe, and it's been made worse by the establishment of migrant centers in local Irish communities.

In India, right now it's too soon to determine exactly what caused the crash of Flight 171. However local media claims that a mayday call was issued by the pilots immediately after takeoff, though in the short time between the call and the crash, it's not clear what might have happened. Video footage from shortly before the crash also indicates that the aircraft's flaps were fully retracted, which is very abnormal for any aircraft on takeoff, let along a very heavy long-haul flight fully laden with passengers and fuel.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

Slight update, there are now two brushfires to contend with throughout the LA area. The Bethany Fire in Burbank is mostly under control right now, however the Ranch Fire in the vicinity of Apple Valley continues to be a concern.

Just additional complexities to be aware of as the rioting continues overnight. Doesn't look like either will be a major factor for what's going on in the city, however it's worth making note of.

This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/aduNdOCrsxo

//The Wire//1900Z June 6, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: RUSSIAN COUNTERATTACK STRIKES KIEV. SEARCH FOR FUGITIVE IN WASHINGTON CONTINUES.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Ukraine: Russia conducted a counterattack on Kiev overnight, with multiple missile strikes reported throughout the city. Other drone and missile attacks were reported along the Eastern Front as well. Ukraine has also continued drone strikes as before, with strikes being reported at Engels Airbase overnight.

-HomeFront-

Washington: The fugitive search for Travis Decker continues, with local authorities stating that he may be traveling along the Pacific Crest Trail (PCT). Locals have been advised to remain observant, and keep windows and doors are locked throughout the area.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: This is a major hiking trail throughout the region, and is prone to heavy traffic in some sections this time of year. It is a little early in the season for backpackers to flood into the area, however it is imperative for local hikers to be aware of this individual, now that the search area has shifted to include areas that are not currently off-limits to the public.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z June 2, 2025//

//PRIORITY//

//BLUF: MAJOR ESCALATION IN RUSSIA AS UKRAINE STRIKES RUSSIA'S STRATEGIC BOMBER FORCE. MOLOTOV ATTACK OCCURS IN COLORADO.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Russia: At approximately 11:00pm Moscow time Sunday evening, Ukraine conducted a large-scale drone attack on military bases throughout Russia. Approximately 5-8 commercial cargo vehicles parked near critical military bases throughout the nation. Once parked, the drivers of these vehicles opened secret hatches cut into the tops of the cargo containers, from which dozens of Ukrainian drones were deployed in rapid succession. Within moments, these drones struck targets at several Russian military installations, ranging from airfields to supply depots.

As of right now, four Russian airbases have been confirmed to be struck during the attacks: Ivanovo, Dyagilevo, Belaya, and Olenya Air Bases were all struck overnight.

Various targets at Severomorsk and Severodvinsk Naval Bases appear to also have been struck, however this is unconfirmed at this time. Voskresensk Air Base is also claimed by some sources to have been struck during this attack, but this is also unconfirmed.

All total, the initial assessment of battle damage indicates a total loss of 3x Tu-95 BEAR H bombers, with 5x more being damaged. Ukrainka Air Base was also targeted by Ukrainian drones, however this attack failed due to the defenses at this location.

Ukraine has claimed credit for the attack, and has openly stated that the United States was made aware of the attack before it took place. The United States has denied these claims.

-HomeFront-

Colorado: Yesterday afternoon an arson attack took place in Boulder. Local authorities state that an assailant attacked a pro-Israel protest/demonstration in the vicinity of the historic Boulder County Courthouse. The attacker approached the protesters, using improvised incendiary devices to inflict burns on approximately 5x people attending the small demonstration. Concerning casualties, 2x victims were burned severely, and a several others suffered minor burns. The attacker has been identified as Mohammed Soliman, and authorities have claimed he is an illegal immigrant (specifically, a visa overstay) from Egypt.

AC: Reports vary on the method of the attack; some sources claim the assailant used some sort of improvised flamethrower device, others state that he used Molotov cocktails in his attack. Either way, video evidence of the attack confirms the assailant was holding two Molotovs in his hands after the attack was conducted. Additionally, Soliman's statements during the fray also indicate he conducted the attack in support of the Palestinian movement. Considering the recent shift in federal agencies' priorities concerning this issue, the fallout of this incident is probably going to be a very big deal in many different ways.

Oregon: Yesterday afternoon a mass stabbing attack was reported at the Union Gospel Mission in Salem. 11x people were wounded in the attack, and the assailant was detained at the scene.

AC: Very few details have come to light regarding this incident, and the assailant has not been identified yet. However, this facility is a homeless shelter, so at the moment the most likely theory is that the attack is the result of a mental health incident.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: From time to time, a new aspect of modern war comes to light that changes the dynamic of the modern battlespace in ways that most of us cannot possibly fathom. This happened over the weekend in Russia. While the drone attack on Russian airfields was not a new tactic by any means, it is expressly for this reason that this attack was special: most nations around the world have been waiting for someone to try this attack vector, and now it's actually happened.

While the supporters of Ukraine may rejoice at this development, this is the first time that a nuclear superpower has had this much damage occur to their First Strike capability within their own homeland, which is mixed-news at best. It is truly remarkable and impressive that Ukraine was able to pull this off with much success; this attack will be written about in the history books, without question. Ukraine (and the American advisors who probably helped, at least passively) are certainly worthy of all of the praise for this great military *tactical* victory. A quick look at a map will show how impressive this attack was, and how it has changed the battlespace. The farthest-struck target was an airbase almost 3,000 miles from Ukraine's borders. Of course, the drones themselves were launched only a short distance from their target, but overall this attack proves that nowhere is safe. Nowhere in Russia...nowhere, anywhere.

As such, one might surmise that this may be a pyrrhic victory at best...if Russia levels Kiev with a few IRBMs, the grand strategy of this attack (and retroactively the Kursk Offensive as well) may be called into question. In short, it may not have been worth it. Two weeks ago, Ukraine was looking at the chance for peace at the cost of losing terrain. An unfortunate situation to be in, to be sure. It does not make it morally right, but Russia is indeed a superpower...and Ukraine is not. Two weeks ago, the loss of two or three districts was on the menu. Now, all of them are. And what is more, if Russia even slightly suspects that the United States had a hand in approving this strike, very serious things may happen very soon. Remember, morality and fairness are not often reflected in modern war. Ukraine being 100% within their right to defend their homeland isn't likely to make anyone feel any better if we start seeing asymmetric warfare being waged by a nationstate actor in the American homeland. Though many will argue over what this attack means, it's worth considering the cold hard fact that there is a limit to how much the United States can assist and support her allies without becoming a target herself.

It is possible that we passed this point last night.

If the United States was indeed informed of the attack beforehand (as Ukrainian sources claim), this means that Russia will likely point the finger at the United States even more than they already have. Many will be quick to draw a link between the recent statements by President Donald Trump, and this major military downfall for Russia...Trump said "bad things" would happen, and indeed they have. Russia will also be quick to reflect on the timing of all of this. This attack was not planned overnight. Russia is not likely to dismiss the fact that at the exact same time that President Trump was berating Putin for escalating the war, Ukraine (and undoubtedly the United States) was planning this attack and the spies and operatives who conducted this attack were already inside Russia. Chastising a nation for being a warmonger, when you at the same moment have snuck clandestine operatives into that nation to carry out an attack, does not bode well for diplomacy. Peace is not only off of the table, but sharp escalations are also very likely imminent as this business gets out of hand.

Again, the perspective of how serious this situation has become is hard to explain without a clear analogy. Imagine, for a moment, that a Mexican Cartel were to launch a drone attack here in the United States, flying kamizake drones into the wings of the B-52's sitting on the unprotected tarmac at Barksdale Air Force Base. And to continue the analogy, imagine if that Cartel told us that China knew about the attack beforehand, right around the exact same time that China was accusing *us* of escalating the situation. The United States would be at war with China by the end of the day, if that situation were to occur here at home.

Though this is a fictional "what if" scenario, this has been a very significant threat to the domestic American homeland for some time, and that can of worms may have just been opened by America's ally in Europe. Here in the United States, this is a particular worry. In government (especially in the world of defense strategy), sometimes a vulnerability is found that is so exceptionally severe that there's nothing that can be done about it, so it's easier to ignore the issue altogether, or provide some feeble attempt to defend against it. It's rare, but this does occasionally happen.

Defense analysts have been thinking about this problem set for many years, and right now there isn't any good solution. One of the most concerning attack methods has been the scenario of drone swarm attacks conducted from secret locations inside one's own homeland. Many Americans think that there is some sort of magical air defense system to prevent this kind of attack, but this simply does not exist yet. The United States already has a hard time defending against ICBMs, as evidenced by the comparatively (and legendary) low success rate of interceptors. But for small drones launched within a few miles of their projected impact site, there quite literally is no defense that is feasible at scale right now. SHORAD batteries (or Short Range Air Defense batteries) don't defend against smaller drones, and the United States doesn't have enough of these types of defenses to cover every military base anyway, much less civilian centers. Point defense via jammers is hopeful at best, and largely negated now that fiber-optically controlled drones are becoming the industry standard. And America's "Golden Dome" system is still on the drawing board, and thus likely to be far too little, far too late, in the event that it's needed. And now that Ukraine has seen fit to confirm one of the defense industry's long held fears, the potential for this exact scenario to happen in the United States is now a legitimate concern. This is no longer a theory, it's been operationally proven to be a viable attack method.

Bottom line: If this same style of attack were to be used by malign actors (supported by a foreign nation) in the United States, there's nothing we could do about it. The bulk of the aircraft in the U.S. Air Force could be neutralized before they even got off the ground and nobody would know what happened until it's all over. And all of this could theoretically be done by a foreign nationstate that has the same GDP as Nebraska.

This highlights an unfortunate yet contentious problem with the entire Ukraine War. Any nationstate, when so invaded by the ground force of another nation, certainly has the right to defend their homeland. This is one of the defining characteristics of a nationstate. However, when that war starts to affect things outside the local sphere, tougher questions start being asked. If thermite grenades start being dropped on the wings of F-35's at JB Langley-Eustis (as this specific base has quietly made preparations to defend against this exact threat) the idea of the whole war becomes a bit more complicated.

In short, it's easy to have thoughts on a war that is not in one's homeland. And it's easy support someone defending their homeland on the far side of the world. But it's also easy to forget that in doing so, one may bring a war from someone else's homeland...to their own. These are the careful considerations not made by those cheering on either side in this war; this conflict has always had the potential to spread beyond the borders of Ukraine, and is now especially likely to do so now that a nationstate is engaging in asymmetric warfare tactics on a national level.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z May 28, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: BORDER SKIRMISH REPORTED BETWEEN CAMBODIA AND THAILAND. LOCAL UNREST CONTINUES IN SEATTLE.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Southeast Asia: Border clashes erupted overnight between Cambodia and Thailand. A brief small arms skirmish in the vicinity of Chong Bok resulted in 1x Cambodian border guard being killed by Thai forces. Both Cambodia and Thailand have stated that the other party started the skirmish; Cambodia claims an entrenched position they were dug into was ambushed, while Thailand claims that Cambodia was digging a new trench on their side of the line and Thailand's soldiers were trying to warn Cambodian soldiers away from the area.

-HomeFront-

Washington: Low-level unrest has continued following the activation of ANTIFA elements to oppose the presence of Christian groups within the city. Yesterday, following the statements by city officials, Pursuit NW, the Christian Church group at the center of the recent concert/prayer vigil scandal decided to host a First Amendment Event on the steps of City Hall, to call for the resignation of the Mayor for the city's statements on the situation. As expected, their presence immediately sparked a riot which lasted until the evening. 8x rioters were arrested, all of which affiliated with ANTIFA.

Virginia: Another boil water advisory has been announced for the Richmond area as the local water treatment plant experienced issues with increased turbidity and clogged filters.

AC: This is a recurring issue for Richmond. Back in January the boil advisory was in place for five days, which resulted in most restaurants remaining closed during that time due to health code regulations.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: What actually happened along the Cambodian border is anyone's guess, however this area has been disputed by both nations for many years. Nevertheless, border clashes are usually one of the early indicators of old wounds being re-opened, so this will be a development to follow just in case it escalates. So far, both nations have begun moving more troops to this area, and have begun staging for posturing operations, so the potential for this to get out of hand remains a possibility.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/9pbUnoA1Ens

Replying to

The Beave

Huh. I mostly know him from the YouTube stuff. No clue about the rest of it. That's a shame, though. But... That's a lot of veteran stuff. We're not the brightest bunch... 😅

I'll note that you didn't even question whether or not this comment is true, you just assumed that I'm a horrible person. I don't even know who this guy is or what he's talking about.

//The Wire//2300Z May 21, 2025//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENT VISITS WHITE HOUSE. AX ATTACK STRIKES FRANCE, ONE JUVENILE FATALITY. KNIFE ATTACK OCCURS IN AMSTERDAM, MULTIPLE DEAD AND WOUNDED.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

France: Yesterday evening a 14-year-old boy was murdered by an assailant in Nogent-sur-Oise, a small town north of Paris. Local authorities have not released any information regarding the attack, however locals who witnessed the incident state that the assailant murdered the boy with an ax in the parking lot of a grocery store.

Netherlands: A stabbing attack was reported in Amsterdam yesterday, resulting in two fatalities, and the wounding of two responding police officers.

AC: This situation does not appear to be a random attack, but rather a domestic situation that occurred in an area well known for heavy drug use. As such, the circumstances of the two fatalities are not clear; Dutch authorities have stated that the responding officers did fire their weapons during this incident, however very few details have indicated what actually happened here.

-HomeFront-

Midwest: Disaster recovery efforts continue throughout the region, following the severe weather systems that have caused devastation throughout the region. Local authorities in St. Louis are investigating their emergency response procedures after a substantial tornado ripped through the downtown metro area on Friday.

AC: Today local authorities stated that the city's tornado siren network was not functioning at the time it was needed, resulting in no tornado warnings being sounded. The head of the St. Louis City Emergency Management Agency has been placed on leave after it became clear that the citywide siren system didn't actually work, and possibly had not been operationally tested in decades. Routine tests are normally mandatory, however when asked about it the interim CEMA official (a Fire Captain temporarily appointed to the job while the investigation continues) did not provide a date as to when the system was last tested, other than when it was installed in 1999. From the descriptions of what possibly happened, it sounds like the physical button and/or switch to activate the tornado sirens did not work when officials attempted to activate it.

Washington D.C. - This morning South African President Cyril Ramaphosa conducted a state visit to the White House. During the visit, the main point of focus was the domestic situation in South Africa, with President Trump pressing Ramaphosa regarding the concerns of genocide within his nation.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Despite the smiles and handshakes presented to the media, the state visit by South African leadership did not go well. Though the tone was not as openly hostile as Zelenskyy's infamous visit, the ideas conveyed were equally serious (if not moreso). When President Ramaphosa echoed his previous statements flat-out denying that any genocide was taking place, President Trump's team played various video clips showing evidence that these statements are false. Considering that this audio/visual presentation was pre-arranged (but interestingly, not announced beforehand), the White House probably knew how this situation might go and had planned this meticulously.

In short, this visit was probably the White House's attempt to put South African leadership on notice regarding their aspirations for ethnic cleansing. Before the civilizational decline of recent times South Africa was a powerful player in the region, and the White House is probably trying to curb the increasingly exponential rise in cultural violence that is driving South Africa further into a state of decline. Whether or not these efforts will pan out, is anyone's guess.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z May 17, 2025//

//PRIORITY//

//BLUF: IED DETONATES AT IVF CLINIC IN PALM SPRINGS, CALIFORNIA.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-HomeFront-

California: This afternoon a Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) was detonated at the American Reproductive Centers clinic in Palm Springs. Local authorities and eyewitness testimony indicates that a vehicle parked in the parking lot to rear of the structure contained an explosive device which detonated, causing severe damage to the clinic.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As this is a developing situation, it's too soon to tell what the motive might be with any certainty; there are many different reasons as to why a terrorist may wish to conduct an attack at an IVF clinic. At least one individual was killed in the blast, and several more were wounded. However it's not clear as to if the victims were inside the clinic at the time, or were random passersby.

Though further technical analysis will be required, the initial characteristics of the extremely severe damage indicates that this was a substantial and properly constructed IED. This was very likely not the result of a simple pipe bomb, but rather much more explosive material.

Analyst: S2A1

Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground

//END REPORT//