The macro dictates the type of market we’re in. Price action tells you everything you need to know from there. Combine both and you have the best strategy. Contrary to common belief, you can trade Bitcoin and stocks but only with proper risk management. You only get to that point after about 5 years of hard work, sweat and tears. You become one with the charts and volatility. Like a surfer that grows an instinct of the waves and their timing. It is a thing of beauty. The charts are always speaking to you, you just need to listen.

Posting my first chart analysis on Nostr 🎉

The BTC and MSTR charts are showing great promise, especially MSTR - clean structure, respects key levels, great liquidity, and shows great performance in it's targets - a brief pause at $400 target and then a secondary target of $700 within the next 4 months.

Options positioning (though I'm fairly new at this analysis) seem to confirm $700 and $900 as key levels. How quick it gets there matters a great deal. A quick move within a month and a half would likely point to over-performance (possibly to the $900 - $1000 area). If we get a much slower grind and staying around $400 over a number of months possibly a pullback from $700. Let's re-evaluate and see what structure looks like at that point.

Important to note BTC/MSTR seems to also be showing a potential reversal in the trend of BTC outperforming MSTR since Nov'24. Important for the above to play out.

Bitcoin miners like CLSK seem to be basing/bottoming. Though they seem to have structures that will perform slower than MSTR but not necessarily less in the long run. Their current prices are unbelievable deals if we truly are just getting this bull run started - they have been left for dead from a stock perspective. They will certainly outperform BTC if my charts are anywhere near accurate. Any dips lower I expect to be hard bought. It seems the market is missing something with the miners. My guess is something is about to reverse the hard institutional shorting present on the miners, though we have yet to see what that is. CLSK is currently my favourite structure though MARA is a close second.

Macro seems to be indicating a bottoming sometime in the next two months with either Treasury or the Fed needing to pick up the slack on debt refinancing for the US and not allowing a recession - in my view the US cannot afford a recession until the debt/GDP drops meaningfully, we're not there yet. I'm not an expert on this, I suggest following experts like Luke Gromen and Darius Dale for further details.

As of now, it seems like this bull market will end in early 2026 but price action will dictate. That is still dependant on several factors (macro included). However, we will have a much better idea by September.

Not financial advice, just simply what I'm seeing from the charts from my humble experience. Always be hedged/protected to the downside with some cash.

My big takeaway though, this will be a great bull run just about to get started. After this though it will be a tough few years for the stock market and Bitcoin. Combined with high inflation. Now is the time to take advantage while markets are wrongfully positioned.

Giving Nostr another try 💪🏻

Wow. Thanks and go Nostr 💪🏼