Market seems in denial of the approaching economic crash. Fed 'pause' most likely temporary before another hike. Inflation still high. Employment high. Normies feeling only minimal pain from rate rises. MUCH MUCH more pain on the horizon imo.
There would always remain some miners for it, but the accepted "real" bitcoin could change under a climate pandemic cocktail of:
- Steep carbon regulation coordinated across the UN and harsh sanctions against countries that don't comply.
- Forced selling from BTC miners and panic selling from investors.
- The resulting drop in BTC price means miners cannot afford to pay for carbon offsets.
- Large drop in hash rate that doesn't recover quickly due to shortages in renewable energy infrastructure materials, further shaking confidence in the network.
- BlackRock swapping BTC holdings into PoS Bitcoin and declaring it the "real" bitcoin.
- PoS Bitcoin narrative pushed mainstream as the greatest innovation of our time.
Sounds like a fantasy imho,
Practice looks more like this...
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/05/17/bitcoin-mining-appears-to-have-survived-ban-in-china/
What happening in China is a great example of a total ban scenario. It's not the same as carbon regulations. But it does show that without off-grid electricity, mining in China would likely have stayed near 0%.
✅Mining initially dropped to 0%.
✅Mining in china resumed using off-grid electricity.
Citation:
“Access to off-grid electricity and geographically scattered small-scale operations are among the major means used by underground miners to hide their operations from authorities and circumvent the ban," the CCAF said in a statement.
The sudden drop to 0% in July and August followed by a swift increase in the subsequent months suggests mining firms may have been operating covertly
Hash rate would drop from downsizing operations, bankruptcies and migration. Massive forced selling of rigs and coins would occur.
Price down & hash rate down, a dominant negative narrative against PoW plus the entire BlackRock holdings shifting to PoS bitcoin which is simultaneously being portrayed loudly to the public as the greatest innovation of our time....now that's something that has the potential to leave Bitcoin PoW as relevent as ETC.
A 'Climate Pandemic' could easily create a situation where Bitcoin PoS becomes the accepted "real" bitcoin.
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How?
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- Declare Climate Pandemic and force all businesses to reduce they carbon footprint below a stated level or face steep fines.
- Price of renewable energy materials and carbon offset credits go exponential. Businesses that cannot afford offsets or move to renewables fast enough go bankrupt. This includes MANY Bitcoin mining businesses.
- Hash rate lowers from mining bankruptcies, operation size reductions and hash location migration to friendlier regulatory jurisdictions.
- The bitcoin climate narrative turns ugly. A Bitcoin PoS fork I'd created.
- BlackRock, on behalf of all its investment clients, declares PoS Bitcoin the "real" bitcoin and swaps entire holdings into Bitcoin PoS.
- Bitcoin PoW price plummets, causing further panic selling and a huge loss in confidence and support for Bitcoin PoW.
-Bitcoin PoS gets pushed onto the masses by BlackRock and PoS supporters as greatest invention of our generation, for all the same reasons Bitcoin PoW genuinely is.
- BlackRock, the largest asset management firm, is now the largest asset holder of Bitcoin and can secretly control it because it's now PoS...the masses continue to remain as unaware as they always have been about how the world really works.
- Bitcoin PoW becomes as relevant as Ethereum Classic (ETC).
RIGHT NOW it's never been more important for bitcoin mining to use green energy sources.
BlackRock will control a large number of bitcoins and attempt to switch the public's consensus of the "real" bitcoin to a forked PoS bitcoin.
They will do this using the PoW carbon footprint narrative, we cannot let that happen.
Bitcoin's only 'weakness' is it's consensus mechanism, but we are it's consensus mechanism, we humans are the weakness because we can be manipulated into accepting a PoS fork. Not you bitcoin maxis, but everyone else.
Any FOSS tools for bitcoin mining power-on/off automation for grid stabilization?
"How best to regulate something that's borderless, open-source, decentralized and constantly evolving?" - WEF
What if the "suddenly" isn't caused by a mass-awakening of humanity to its value, but a mass-awakening of ai investment algorithms to its value.
Most firms dont have desk traders anymore. More than 70% of trading activity on stock markets are trading algorithms, many of which use unsupervised deep learning AI.
What's the value of Ethereum without 20,000 VC funded erc-20 shitcoin securities on it? My guess is much, much less. Likewise for BNB.
Curious to know how many viewers actually went and looked up bitcoin.
The issue with non-profit is there's no incentive to create a great product. Devs just build stuff however they want and say "if you don't like it fork it" not realising most users don't have the skills and knowledge to do so.
Very few bitcoin products end up being built with new users in mind.
The current number of people who hold coins in self custody is the current number of people who are willing to overcome the friction involved with doing it. Ledger has the largest share, and despite all its problems, it has a great UX for new users. #Bitcoin only app builders should take note.
All these exchanges collapsing really showed how many people were buying Bitcoin and crypto for reasons other than wealth-protection.
I know so many people that got rugged at some point over the past year. They were all keen to invest significant portions of their life savings but when it came to learning a new skill like self-custody, following a step by step guide on YouTube was "too hard".