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Cathryn Herman
4e83382c5e701a11b4c9b3b6d0ab7f19d0da57a908b513b73f291c96d4d8d562
Replying to Avatar Peter Alexander

Wanted to provide a bit of broader context to the ongoing tension between China and America.

Agree of disagree with the approach taken, consider for a quick minute the following moves made by the Trump team over the past four months.

1. In February, the American First Investment Policy was announced. The document made it clear that Chinese investment was no longer welcome in the United States. We are talking a couple of trillion USD.

2. Last week, the State Department announced that Chinese student visas would come under review and many should expect to be revoked. So, first it was “we don’t want your money” now it became “we don’t want your people either”.

Last I looked, capital and labor were two pretty important variables for economic growth. I also wonder how many Chinese remained in the US after studying and how many were - in some way - responsible for all of the technological advances made over the past 20 years. But I digress.

3. Finally we have SecDef Pete Hegseth speaking in Singapore over the weekend where he called out China, or rather “the imminent threat of China.” That was a speech that most have viewed as very poorly timed.

Take all of these developments in total and ask yourself; if I was running Beijing, do I genuinely believe that my counterparty is acting in good faith?

Make no mistake. China has taken full advantage of, even abused, the “rules based order”. There are no good guys here. I’m just raising the issues and looking to demonstrate how the boys in Beijing might be thinking.

I would also end here with the following. Up to this point, China hasn’t even begun playing hardball. Recall the PPE export controls in 2020 and just go from there. America has countless pressure points.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-rare-earths-grip-gives-151513862.html

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