全球变暖的本质是人类文明利用的能量越来越多，能量转换是不断产生熵的，即使没有温室气体，全部使用零碳的核能也会提高全球温度。

全球变暖我们应该关心的是排出熵或者把熵生成移出地球，比如大规模部署辐射冷却技术或者把算力数据中心等高耗能产业建到月球上去。不是打着低碳的旗号互相产业倾轧，开源节流重在开源不是节流。现在的执行政策好像低端产业拧螺丝就是碳排大户这不行那不行，高新技术AI就是低碳产业到处鼓励。

高等级文明其它特征或许难以了解，但获取能量和输出熵行为一定是确定的，比如获取恒星能量的戴森球，或者输出熵到黑洞，当然这也决定了高等级文明非常难以探测到，因为能量生成和损失都等效被屏蔽，也算费米悖论的一种解释吧。

“We should change Bitcoin now in a contentious way to fix the security budget” is basically the same tinkering mentality that central bankers have.

It begins with an overconfident assumption that they know fees won’t be sufficient in the future and that a certain “fix” is going to generate more fees. But some “fixes” could even backfire and create less fees, or introduce bugs, or damage the incentive structure.

The Bitcoin fee market a couple decades out will primarily be a function of adoption or lack thereof. In a world of eight billion people, only a couple hundred million can do an on chain transaction per year, or a bit more with maximal batching. The number of people who could do a monthly transaction is 1/12th of that number. In order to be concerned that bitcoin fees will be too low to prevent censorship in the future, we have to start with the assumption that not many people use bitcoin decades out.

Fedwire has about 100x the gross volume that Bitcoin currently does, with a similar number of transactions. What will Bitcoin’s fee market be if volumes go up 5x or 10x, let alone 50x or 100x? Who wants to raise their hand with a confident model of what bitcoin volumes will be in 2040?

What will someone pay to send a ten million dollar equivalent on chain settlement internationally? $100 in fees per million dollar settlement transaction would be .01%. $300 to get it in a quicker block would be 0.03%. That type of environment can generate tens of billions of dollars of fees annually. The fees that people pay to ship millions of dollars of gold long distances, or to perform a real estate transaction worth millions of dollars, are extremely high. Even if bitcoin is a fraction of that, it would be high by today’s standards. And in a world of billions of people, if nobody wants to pay $100 to send a million dollar settlement bearer asset transaction, then that’s a world where not many people use bitcoin period.

In some months the “security budget” concern trends. In other months, the “fees will be so high that only rich people can transact on chain” concern trends. These are so wildly contradictory and the fact that both are common concerns shows how little we know about the long term future.

I don’t think the fee market can be fixed by gimmicks. Either the network is desirable to use in a couple decades or it’s not. If 3 or 4 decades into bitcoin’s life it can’t generate significant settlement volumes, and gets easily censored due to low fees, then it’s just not a very desirable network at that point for one reason or another.

Some soft forks like covenants can be thoughtfully considered for scaling and fee density, and it’s good for smart developers to always be thinking about low risk improvements to the network that the node network and miners might have a high consensus positive view toward over time. But trying to rush VC-backed softforks, and using security budget FUD to push them, is pretty disingenuous imo.

Anyway, good morning.

非常值得阅读 nostr:note15c3gp0hqxq3q0306ms9st2q3qer2lrpntnvag29463v2p6gxq7fqa4hxp6

感覺好多人第一次使用Nostr有點不習慣

跟大家解說一下，當你使用任何的Nostr Clients如Damus、Plebstr、Iris 等等，來連結Nostr，不同的Client都可以使用自己的同一個私鑰(Private key) 來登入，不用創立新的，除非你想要建立多個帳號

重要‼️

私鑰(Private key)要保管好絕不外流，不見了被偷了，無人能救你

公鑰(Public key)就如你的名片或對外讓人可以找到你的「帳號」，可以公開

懂的請舉手🙋

记录一下，央行今天调降了“首套房”的存量按揭贷款利率。大概是从6%降到4.5%，降了1.5%左右。首套房的贷款余额大概占全部按揭贷款总量的一半左右。当然，央行昨天为了对冲本次按揭贷款利率下调的影响，意思性的降了一下存款利率，整体大概降了0.15%，跟没降差不多，根本没有对冲的意义。

好吧，我一再的说，银行的息差现在只有1%出头，并且经营情况普遍极差，被地产商的坏账和地方政府平台债的坏账死死的束缚住，根本承受不起大规模下调贷款利率的影响。

并且，我给出过预测：只要大规模下调存量房贷，在半年之内，就会出现银行破产潮。尤其是地方性的小银行，会死得更快。

现在，就是命运的齿轮开始转动的时间了。一切都来得好快，犹如暴风骤雨。

还记得今年初的时候，我说今年最好的经济政策，就是什么都不要做，休养生息。呵呵，奈何政府死活管不住自己的手，一定要大有作为。那么，就加速吧。

Merdeka! 🙋🏻‍♂️

Merdeka! 🙋🏻‍♂️

Merdeka! 🙋🏻‍♂️

自己搞了个nostr的节点跑，看看能撑多久。用的是 cloudflare 做 dns 解析，指向 linode 的 IPv6，理论上应该会要快一些。欢迎试用：wss://relay.lisp-cn.net

试验一下。我现在在广州，换下了香港手机卡，直接使用大陆的电信网络，看看能不能直接使用这个APP。这条可以发出来就是可以。

理论上nostr协议就有击穿一切墙的能力，也就是可以无限制翻墙。

Are you real？ nostr:note1ygssz739ztpnqtxrn24hwxz3jycwcg93tvmghh49hy05mymvzvnq2lzdq5

Nostr 好強大，不用求平台申請認證放藍勾勾，也不用被逼付錢證明自己就是自己

自己就可以透過NIP-05設定認證，大家有沒有發現我的帳號已經成功認證✅xymusic.com

追蹤時要記得認有勾勾認證的才是真的我喔🤗