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Dr. Bitcoin, MD
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Bitcoin OG since 2010, former laptop solo miner, blockstream satellite node runner, #2A rights user, radiologist

The reason to care about Wikileaks and other persecuted activists is that they provide the threat model all people, bitcoiners in particular, need to develop tools to defend against. — paraphrasing Stella Assange nostr:npub167n5w6cj2wseqtmk26zllc7n28uv9c4vw28k2kht206vnghe5a7stgzu3r

My wife and I are loving it in Prague. Just listened to an amazing orchestra concert in the cathedral Tyn. What an amazing place to live.

Bitcoin sale again!

You are hitting at the core of the issue. If you do the math with how people use bitcoin today, you’ll get one answer; but if you do the math with how people could use bitcoin today, you’ll get maybe 1.5-2.2x that answer (eg, many users creating multi-input multi-output transaction with only one aggregated schnorr signature hitting the chain). In an ideal world though, this gets maybe 1M transactions per day max.

If you look at L2’s, you’ll get maybe 100-1000x the answer above (random guess, tbh)…but a lot depends on how people use those L2’s. If you look at how I’ve tried lighting, it’s like only a 2x improvement…because keeping a lightning node running isn’t trivially easy. And one can argue this isn’t truly sovereign, just more sovereign than status quo money. And getting to this hypothetical 100-1000x requires time…the 1000x will require 10x longer than the 100x improvement. One could argue the improvement is unbounded, but imho, lightning channels and liquid peg-ins won’t have infinite lifespans.

Then there is a weird category of utxo sharing where the transaction signature somehow communicates what percentage of the utxo is available to the user. I can’t ballpark the efficiency gain here, it might be no improvement on a per spending transaction basis…but could be really big improvement in terms of allowing one output to be owned by 10 or maybe 100 people.

But AFAICT, we are far far away from letting 1B people use the chain once a day.

You won’t believe it when he tells you. But it’s nuts.

I wouldn’t even know how best to manage all that space. Someday I’ll learn all the cool tools like proxmox and copy on write file systems, check pointing, tiered storage, etc.

A lot of people use credit cards for ancillary benefits, not the payment itself. The credit card companies often give the user a kick back and/or guarantees regarding returning of a purchase or warranty against theft, etc.

Replying to Avatar Merlin

I'm excited to be joining this decentralised community. nostr:npub1s05p3ha7en49dv8429tkk07nnfa9pcwczkf5x5qrdraqshxdje9sq6eyhe recommended I made it my home. Here is a substack I wrote about being a guest on a podcast in Zurich with Jeff, my career in finance and epiphanies on inflation and BTC (its ultimately a spiritual thing).

https://open.substack.com/pub/embassy/p/swiss-banks-bitcoin-and-meeting-jeff?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Welcome! I’ve seen many people make the journey to Bitcoin over the last 14 years. I must say, I like the people that are coming now a great deal. It took a long time before the big thinkers got here, so you’re in good company.

If you’re in town for nostr:npub167n5w6cj2wseqtmk26zllc7n28uv9c4vw28k2kht206vnghe5a7stgzu3r , I can highly recommend https://praguearmory.com if you want to shoot some interesting guns. My favorite today were the Bren 2, 460 S&W magnum, MP5, and CZ Shadow 2. But they also have the elusive Laugo Alien, Desert Eagle, and all the standard American fare.

Currently in jet lagged zombie mode, but it’s beautiful here. The museum of communism was really good. Shows what happens to a disarmed defenseless people.

On the ground in Prague!

On the plane to Prague. Sitting behind a bit block boomer.

But surely there’s some nuance there. It’s hard to pin down someone’s exact opinion without being very explicit…for example, I doubt he would argue in support for making transactions take twice as much space for no reason.

Replying to Avatar Rusty Russell

I listened to the What Bitcoin Did Saylor podcast, and I really want to respond, though that may be unwise. But I want thoughtful, fearless content in my feed, so I should start making some, right?

Firstly, while analogies can provide useful guide rails for understanding, listening to people *arguing* using analogies makes you stupider. Debate the thing itself, not the words about the thing: it hurts my head to even think about doing this, so I won't.

Let's set my priors first: I assume we're talking about technically solid, well-vetted, backward compatible protocol changes: this is the minimum bar.

I don't wholesale agree with Saylor's "don't threaten anyone's investment" hard limit. This has happened multiple times in the past, from the dust limit breaking SatoshiDice, enabling Lightning threatening miner fees (real or not), and segwit breaking stealth ASICBoost. These interests can, and will, stand up for themselves and will compete against other benefits of changes.

To be explicit: I consider any protocol change which makes block space usage more efficient to be a win!

Obviously Saylor is invested in Bitcoin the asset, and can afford to do all his business onchain in any conceivable scenario. His projection of a Bitcoin world in which there are 100,000 companies and governments who use Bitcoin as the base layer is interesting:

1. This does not need "smart contracts", just signatures. By this model, Bitcoin Script was a mistake.

2. It can work if Bitcoin does not scale and is incredibly expensive to spend and hold. By this model, the consumer hardware wallet industry is a dead-end and needs to pivot to something else (nostr keys, ecash?)

3. You could do this with gold, today? Bitcoin here is simply an incremental, not fundamental, improvement. I think this is suggestive, though: that such a network would not be long-term stable, and very much subject to capture.

4. In this view, Saylor is simply a gold bug with first mover advantage, shilling his bags. That's fine, but it's important to understand people's motivations.

5. This vision does not excite me. I wouldn't have left Linux development to work on making B2B commerce more efficient. I wouldn't get up at 5:30am for spec calls, and I sure as hell wouldn't be working this cheap.

I believe we can make people's UTXOs more powerful, and thus feel a moral responsibility to do so. This gives them more control over their own money, and allows more people to share that control. I assume that more people will do good things than stupid things, because assuming the other way implies that someone should be able to stop them, and that's usually worse.

I believe the result will be a more stable, thus useful, Bitcoin network. I am aware that this will certainly benefit people with very different motivations than me (Saylor).

Thanks for reading, and sorry for the length!

Are you sure that’s Saylor’s model? As an OG but technically naive bitcoiner, I agree block space efficiency gains are always a win, all else being equal. I doubt Saylor would disagree.

But I wouldn’t be surprised if Saylor isn’t aware of how bitcoin consensus happens (has happened, can happen?). I think he would agree that obviously good things are obviously good if looked at long enough by enough bright people.

Another issue here is more subtle: there are properly smart/educated/competent/informed people capable of writing code that’s can withstand strict review and then there’s the set of people who argue about changes to protocol. These unfortunately are not the same set of people. I learned my lesson in 2016-17, taking the wrong side of the block size wars (just keep nudging block size up sorta like how it was done for years via bitcoin.conf and keep the status quo!). It wasn’t until I had a surprisingly brief IRL chat with Adam that I realized I was the total fool, despite being “in bitcoin” for far longer than him. It takes humility and a strong mind to see through one’s blind spots. I hope Saylor can do this should it arise.