USD/CHF hovers around 0.9050, US CPI data looms
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The USD/CHF pair is trading around 0.9050 during the early European session. The weaker US Dollar (USD) is contributing to the downtick of the pair. However, the upbeat US March employment report and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials may limit the downside of the USD/CHF pair. The US employment report showed that the economy added more jobs than expected, leading to speculation that the Fed might delay the easing cycle. The odds of a June rate cut declined to below 50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank could cut rates if the US economy continues on its current course. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman mentioned that the Fed might need to act further to ease price pressures. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari penciled in two interest rate cuts this year, but if inflation continues to stall, no rate cuts would be a possible scenario. Investors are awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which could impact expectations for Fed rate cuts. On the Swiss front, the escalating tensions in the Middle East could boost safe-haven assets like the Swiss Franc (CHF) and create a headwind for the USD/CHF pair.
#Usd/chf #UsCpi #FederalReserve #EmploymentReport #InterestRateCuts #Inflation #SwissFranc #MiddleEastTensions
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-hovers-around-09050-us-cpi-data-looms-202404090509
USD/CHF hovers around 0.9050, US CPI data looms
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The USD/CHF pair is trading around 0.9050 during the early European session. The weaker US Dollar (USD) is contributing to the downtick of the pair. However, the upbeat US March employment report and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials may limit the downside of the USD/CHF pair. The US employment report showed that the economy added more jobs than expected, leading to speculation that the Fed might delay the easing cycle. The odds of a June rate cut declined to below 50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank could cut rates if the US economy continues on its current course. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman mentioned that the Fed might need to act further to ease price pressures. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari penciled in two interest rate cuts this year, but if inflation continues to stall, no rate cuts would be a possible scenario. Investors are awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which could impact expectations for Fed rate cuts. On the Swiss front, the escalating tensions in the Middle East could boost safe-haven assets like the Swiss Franc (CHF) and create a headwind for the USD/CHF pair.
#Usd/chf #UsCpi #FederalReserve #EmploymentReport #InterestRateCuts #Inflation #SwissFranc #MiddleEastTensions
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-hovers-around-09050-us-cpi-data-looms-202404090509
WTI gains momentum above $86.00 amid ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions, weaker US Dollar
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WTI prices gain momentum near $86.00 on Tuesday. The ongoing Middle East tensions, a key region for oil production, might boost WTI prices. The expectation that the Fed might delay interest rate cuts this year drags black gold lower. Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $86.25 on Tuesday. The weaker US Dollar (USD) and the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East conflict raise concern about the crude supply disruption, boosting WTI prices near the six-month top. On the weekend, Israel withdrew its forces from Khan Younis in southern Gaza, resulting in one of the lowest military levels since the conflict with Hamas started in October. WTI prices trimmed gains following this headline. However, the uncertainty surrounding Iran's reaction after the attack on its consulate in Syria last week might cap the downside of the black gold. A top Iranian military advisor warned Israel over the weekend that its embassies could be targeted, fueling concern that the Middle East conflict could broaden. Additionally, the strikes on Russian refineries have also raised the geopolitical risk premium. The International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast for 2024 oil demand has risen as traders shift from bearishness to optimism, bolstered by recent improved manufacturing surveys in China, the United States, and India. On the other hand, the US labor market report on Friday came in better than the market estimation, indicating the US economy ended the first quarter on solid ground. This report could prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to delay interest rate cuts this year, which might drag WTI prices lower. Oil traders will monitor the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock on Tuesday. Later this week, the US and Chinese March Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports will be due on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. These events could offer some hints about the economic health of the world's top two oil consumers.
#Wti #OilPrices #MiddleEastTensions #UsDollar #GeopoliticalRisk #OilDemand #InterestRateCuts #ApiWeeklyCrudeOilStock #ConsumerPriceIndex
AUD/USD hovers near 0.6600 as markets await Aussie’s Business, Consumer Confidence data
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) rose 0.42% against the US Dollar (USD) due to better sentiment and a dip in the USD. US inflation remains steady, and the positive economic outlook from the Federal Reserve influences currencies. Traders are awaiting the latest inflation report in the US and Australian consumer confidence data. The AUD/USD pair trades at 0.6604, virtually flat. Technical analysis suggests that if the pair surpasses the April 4 high of 0.6619, the next stop would be intermediate resistance at 0.634, followed by the March 21 high at 0.6667. The first support for AUD/USD would be the 100-day moving average at 0.6600.
#Aud/usd #AustralianDollar #UsDollar #BusinessConfidence #ConsumerConfidence #Inflation
US Dollar trades in red as traders await CPI data outcome
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The US Dollar (USD) is currently trading at a modest loss at the 104.15 level. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious stance is calibrated in light of incoming data. The US economy has yet to show clear evidence of a moderation of inflation and economic activity, which makes the Fed comfortable to start cutting. Markets are still pricing in higher odds of around 60% of the easing cycle to start in June. On Wednesday, the US will release Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from March, a crucial inflation indicator. The headline figure is seen accelerating, while the core measure is seen cooling down. The outcome of the index will likely fuel volatility in the USD dynamic via movements in Treasury yields and Fed expectations.
#UsDollar #CpiData #FederalReserve
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-trades-in-red-as-traders-await-cpi-data-outcome-202404081651
Natural Gas turns in the green with Spain gas prices showing issues for Europe
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Natural Gas prices are consolidating on Monday in both US and European trading. Traders are picking up Gas contracts with gas prices in Spain pointing to shortage. Spain has a just-in-time gas network with little storage facilities compared to France or Germany, and is very much dependant from inflows from other countries. The US Dollar Index sees ample support towards 105.00 despite its downbeat performance last week. Natural Gas (XNG/USD) reverses from its earlier thoughts this Monday that a global recession could be showing up. Biggest element for this turnarounc comes out of Spain where local gas prices are trading above the benchmark European prices. Spain has a just-in-time gas network with little storage facilities compared to France or Germany, and is very much dependant from inflows from other countries. Natural Gas is trading at $1.93 per MMBtu at the time of writing. Traders are cutting their Carbon exposure, which could point to a potential recession risk in the energy sector. Energy-consuming companies buy Carbon Emission rights to be able to burn Gas or consume other energy resources for their business. A decline in Carbon buying could mean a slowdown ahead in industrial production. The ban on new US Gas exports from US President Joe Biden is starting to bite on a state level. Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro (Democrat) urged Joe Biden to reverse the policy with risk of losing the swing state in the 2024 Presidential Election, according to Bloomberg. Dow Jones reports that TotalEnergies will expand its gas production in Texas after it acquired a 20% stake in Lewis Energy Group, which holds leases to mine Gas in Dorado. Bloomberg reports a drop in Natural Gas supplies with biggest factor being Egypt, which is set to halt gas exports over the summer, to redirect the gas feed inland in order to meet with the energy demand during the need for cooling. Natural Gas prices are facing issues again, with the rising US yields as the biggest threat on the horizon. US soared over 20 basis points in the US 10-year benchmark rate last week, while other major economies are seeing their central banks on the way to cut or have cut already. This rate differential weighs on the US against the rest of the world, and it could mean a slowdown is taking place: Even if the US economy is outperforming, higher rates will start to cut growth and this means less demand for Natural Gas. On the upside, the key $1.97 level needs to be regained before challenging last week’s peak at $2.00. The next key mark is the historic pivotal point at $2.13. Should Gas prices pop up in that region, a broad area opens up with the first cap at the red descending trend line near $2.21. On the downside, multi-year lows at $1.60 are still nearby, with $1.65 as the first line in the sand. In case of a breakdown below these levels, traders should look at $1.53 as the next supportive area.
#NaturalGas #Spain #Europe #GasPrices #UsDollar #CarbonEmission #UsGasExports #Totalenergies #Egypt #UsYields
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natural-gas-slips-below-190-on-sluggish-demand-prospects-202404081124
AUD/USD begins the week with extending losses, trades around 0.6560
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AUD/USD begins the week with extending losses, trading around 0.6560. The US Dollar strengthens supported by higher US Treasury yields, putting downward pressure on AUD/USD. The US Nonfarm Payrolls report showed an increase of 303,000 jobs in March, surpassing expectations. The market projects a 70% likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June. Higher copper and oil prices could potentially support the Australian Dollar. Australia recorded its smallest Trade Surplus in five months in February. The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its cash rate at 4.35% for the third consecutive meeting.
#Aud/usd #UsDollar #NonfarmPayrolls #AustralianDollar #TradeSurplus
NFP Analysis: The US economy is on fire, Gold set to rust, US Dollar to shine until the CPI release
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The US gained 303,000 jobs in March, exceeding expectations. Wage growth remains robust. Gold will likely struggle, the US Dollar shine, and stocks to wobble. Neel Kashkari's hawkish comments triggered wild market action. The US Dollar advanced and US Treasury yields increased. Stock markets took the news positively. Investors are set to accept that a rate cut in June is drifting further away. The US releases its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on April 10. EUR/USD breached 1.0800 on the strong Dollar. GBP/USD plummeted below 1.2600. Gold prices receded following the strong NFP report. Bitcoin price action has been confusing. Japanese Yen is jumpy ahead of US Payrolls. Crypto derivatives hit record high trading volume. Altcoins show signs of deepening correction. S&P 500 rallied on unemployment claims above expectations.
#UsEconomy #Gold #UsDollar #CpiRelease #Eur/usd #Gbp/usd #Bitcoin #JapaneseYen #S&p500
Japanese Yen slides to fresh daily low against against USD, US NFP looms large
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) drops to a daily low against the USD after rising to a two-week high earlier. The decline is attributed to USD buying supported by hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. However, the risk-off environment and intervention fears limit the JPY's losses. Traders are now awaiting the release of the US jobs data (NFP) for further direction. Speculations of Japanese authorities intervening in the markets and the possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan also contribute to the cautious trading. The USD/JPY pair's pullback from a multi-decade high may not be over yet.
#JapaneseYen #Usd #UsNfp #ForexMarket
US jobs in focus, with unemployment claims setting us up for tomorrow's jobs report
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European markets are higher as banks and miners lift the FTSE 100. The services sector is in focus, with the UK likely to have exited its recession in Q1. US jobs remain in the limelight, with unemployment claims setting up for tomorrow's jobs report. Yesterday's comments from Jerome Powell highlighted the Fed's view on risks to cutting rates too late or too soon. The services sector prices paid metric declined, helping lift hopes of a June rate cut. Tomorrow's average earnings data will likely provide the most relevant data point to follow. Today's unemployment claims data will likely signal resilience in the US economy. European indices are optimistic about an improved environment for manufacturing and commodities. The article is a marketing communication and does not constitute investment advice.
#UsJobs #UnemploymentClaims #ServicesSector #EuropeanMarkets #RateCut #Manufacturing #Commodities
WTI stands tall near multi-month peak, just above $85.00/barrel mark
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WTI US Crude Oil prices are consolidating near a five-month peak just above the $85.00/barrel mark. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an unexpected build in US Crude stockpiles, which is seen as a headwind for oil prices. However, concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East, tight global supply, and signs of improving demand are supporting prices. The risk of the Israel-Hamas war spreading to include Iran and disrupt supplies in the Middle East is acting as a tailwind. The meeting of top OPEC+ ministers on Wednesday kept oil supply policy unchanged and urged some countries to increase compliance with output cuts. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed caution about future interest rate cuts, but upbeat Chinese manufacturing data and signs of improving demand from the world's largest crude importer are contributing to support oil prices and limit any significant correction.
#Wti #UsCrudeOil #OilPrices #SupplyDisruptions #GlobalSupply #Demand #Opec+ #JeromePowell #China
Gold stands tall near record high as US PCE data reaffirms June Fed rate cut bets
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Gold price (XAU/USD) enters a bullish consolidation phase during the early European session and oscillates in a narrow band around the $2,260-$2,265 region, or a fresh record high touched this Monday. Investors now seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting in June and the bets were reaffirmed by the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on Friday. This, along with geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and the recent conflicts in the Middle East, lend additional support to the safe-haven precious metal. Data released on Sunday showed that China's manufacturing activity expanded for the first time in six months in March and boosted investors' confidence. The risk-on mood and a modest USD uptick do little to hinder the strong move up. The overbought RSI on the daily chart warrants some caution for aggressive bulls.
#GoldPrice #Xau/usd #FederalReserve #JuneRateCut #UsPceData #GeopoliticalRisks #ChinaManufacturingActivity
NZD/USD stretches higher to near 0.5980 on dovish comments from Fed’s Powell, US ISM PMI eyed
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The NZD/USD pair extends its gains to near 0.5980 as the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell makes dovish comments, confirming the Fed's position on potential interest rate cuts for the year. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces downward pressure amid speculation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may commence policy rate cuts starting from early next year. The Kiwi Dollar (NZD) is also boosted by positive Chinese Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures, indicating an expansion in Chinese manufacturing activity. Traders are cautious ahead of the release of the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading near 0.5980.
#Nzd/usd #FederalReserve #InterestRateCuts #ReserveBankOfNewZealand #ChinesePurchasingManagersIndex
Japanese Yen bears remain cautious amid intervention fears, not ready to give up yet
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The Japanese Yen continues to be undermined by the Bank of Japan's cautious stance and the risk-on mood. Intervention fears limit further JPY losses and cap the USD/JPY pair amid a modest USD weakness. The US PCE Price Index keeps a June rate cut by the Fed on the table and weighs on the Greenback. Signs of potential government intervention in the market to address excessive falls in the JPY hold back JPY bears from aggressive bets. China's manufacturing activity expanded for the first time in six months in March, providing an additional boost to investors' confidence and contributing to the offered tone surrounding the safe-haven JPY. Business optimism among large manufacturers eased to 11 during the first quarter from 12 in the last survey. Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said there were speculative moves behind the recent JPY fall, suggesting authorities remained ready to intervene in the market. The US PCE Price Index rose 0.3% in February, slightly lower than the 0.4% estimated, while the yearly rate edged up to 2.5% from the 2.4%. The core PCE Price Index rose 2.8% on a yearly basis. Traders now look forward to important US macro data scheduled for release at the start of a new month, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday for some impetus ahead of the key monthly jobs report on Friday.
#JapaneseYen #InterventionFears #Usd/jpy #BankOfJapan #UsPcePriceIndex #China'sManufacturingActivity #BusinessOptimism #UsMacroData
Asia open: A bountiful start to the quarter
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Asian markets are set to commence trading on solid footing to start the new quarter, buoyed by signs of a "soft landing" in US inflation data on Friday and encouraging macro data from China over the weekend. The closely watched PMI prints showed an acceleration in both the manufacturing and service sectors. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China climbed to 50.8 from 49.1 in the previous month, signalling a notable improvement in activity. Additionally, export orders showed signs of strengthening. China has set a target to increase gross domestic product by approximately 5% this year. Chair Jerome Powell commented on the latest inflation data released on Friday, stating it was "pretty much in line with our expectations." He emphasized that the Federal Reserve should not lower interest rates until officials are confident that inflation is progressing toward the central bank's target of 2%. The monthly Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report holds significant importance, often shaping market expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy decisions. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.8%. In addition to the jobs report, investors will face a flurry of top-tier US economic releases scheduled for the first week of every month. Meanwhile, in Europe, inflation data for March will be released ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) April gathering. In Japan, the Tankan survey is scheduled to be published, providing insights into business sentiment in the country. Currency markets continue to be impacted by Fed Governor Christopher "No Rush" Waller's moderately hawkish stance. The Japanese yen remains in what is commonly called "intervention" territory, indicating that authorities may monitor its exchange rate closely and offer up stern warnings if the currency weakens too fast. Meanwhile, China's yuan faces pressure against the US dollar but has reached a 30-year high against the yen.
#AsianMarkets #UsInflationData #ChinaPmi #FederalReserve #NonfarmPayrolls #UnemploymentRate #UsEconomicReleases #EuropeanInflationData #EuropeanCentralBank #TankanSurvey #CurrencyMarkets #JapaneseYen #ChineseYuan
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/asia-open-a-bountiful-start-to-the-quarter-202403312307
Asia open: A bountiful start to the quarter
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Asian markets are set to commence trading on solid footing to start the new quarter, buoyed by signs of a "soft landing" in US inflation data on Friday and encouraging macro data from China over the weekend. The closely watched PMI prints showed an acceleration in both the manufacturing and service sectors. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China climbed to 50.8 from 49.1 in the previous month, signalling a notable improvement in activity. Additionally, export orders showed signs of strengthening. China has set a target to increase gross domestic product by approximately 5% this year. Chair Jerome Powell commented on the latest inflation data released on Friday, stating it was "pretty much in line with our expectations." He emphasized that the Federal Reserve should not lower interest rates until officials are confident that inflation is progressing toward the central bank's target of 2%. The monthly Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report holds significant importance, often shaping market expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy decisions. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.8%. In addition to the jobs report, investors will face a flurry of top-tier US economic releases scheduled for the first week of every month. Meanwhile, in Europe, inflation data for March will be released ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) April gathering. In Japan, the Tankan survey is scheduled to be published, providing insights into business sentiment in the country. Currency markets continue to be impacted by Fed Governor Christopher "No Rush" Waller's moderately hawkish stance. The Japanese yen remains in what is commonly called "intervention" territory, indicating that authorities may monitor its exchange rate closely and offer up stern warnings if the currency weakens too fast. Meanwhile, China's yuan faces pressure against the US dollar but has reached a 30-year high against the yen.
#AsianMarkets #UsInflationData #ChinaPmi #FederalReserve #NonfarmPayrolls #UnemploymentRate #UsEconomicReleases #EuropeanInflationData #EuropeanCentralBank #TankanSurvey #CurrencyMarkets #JapaneseYen #ChineseYuan
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/asia-open-a-bountiful-start-to-the-quarter-202403312307
US core PCE inflation Preview: Federal Reserve preferred gauge set to decelerate on month in February
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The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is set to rise 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY in February. Markets see a strong chance of the Federal Reserve lowering the policy rate by 25 basis points in June. The revised Summary of Projections showed that policymakers upwardly revised end-2024 core PCE forecast to 2.6% from 2.4%. The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in February, at a slightly softer pace than the 0.4% increase recorded in January. The Federal Reserve’s revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed that policymakers expect the annual core PCE inflation to be at 2.6% at the end of 2024, up from the 2.4% forecast seen in the December SEP. The PCE inflation data is slated for release at 12:30 GMT. The monthly core PCE Price Index gauge is the most-preferred inflation reading by the Fed, as it’s not distorted by base effects and provides a clear view of underlying inflation by excluding volatile items. Investors, therefore, pay close attention to the monthly core PCE figure. Stronger-than-forecast Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) readings in January and February, combined with data that pointed to tight labor market conditions, caused markets to lean toward a delay in the Fed policy pivot from May to June. Nevertheless, the dot plot showed that policymakers still project the US central bank to cut the policy rate by a total of 75 basis points (bps) in 2024. Hence, markets are pricing in a more than 60% chance that the Fed will lower the policy rate by 25 bps to 5%-5.25% in June, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
#UsCorePceInflation #FederalReserve #Inflation #InterestRates #EconomicProjections
USD/CHF advances to near 0.9060 on risk aversion, subdued Swiss Leading Indicator
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USD/CHF moves higher to near 0.9060 during the early European session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) receives upward support against the Swiss Franc (CHF), which could be attributed to the risk aversion ahead of the key economic figures from the US. Traders adopt a cautious stance ahead of the releases of Gross Domestic Product Annualized and Initial Jobless Claims data scheduled to be released on Thursday. Furthermore, Personal Consumption Expenditures is set to be revealed on Friday. Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller continues to advocate for a cautious approach toward rate cuts, citing persistent inflation data. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic shares this sentiment, foreseeing only one rate cut this year and warning against premature reductions that could worsen economic disruptions. The KOF Swiss Leading Indicator declined to 101.5 in March from a revised 102.0 in February, providing insight into the anticipated performance of the Swiss economy approximately six months ahead.
#Usd/chf #RiskAversion #SwissLeadingIndicator
Something must give
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European stocks renewed record on Wednesday, the US dollar consolidated gains and the S&P500 stocks got a late-session boost. Yesterday’s price action pointed at a possible end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing as the session saw the laggards of the quarter like Apple and Tesla gain, and the stars like Microsoft and Nvidia retreat. Goldman Sachs warned that the pension funds are likely to sell $32bn worth of equities as part of rebalancing. That could have a slowing impact on the equity rally, although the rebalancing act will hardly change the overall market trend given that there is a sizeable amount of cash waiting to flow into equities and bonds. The only thing that investors need is the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut dream to stay alive for the June meeting. And for now, that’s the case. Activity on Fed funds futures gives around 64% chance for a June rate cut. But note that, this probability was around 75% last week and it’s coming lower as many investors think that the Fed won’t be able to cut the rates with robust growth and bumpy inflation. And indeed, the US latest GDP update is due today and is expected to confirm an above 3% growth for the US economy in the last quarter of last year, down from almost 5% printed a quarter earlier. These levels don’t call for an imminent Fed cut. This is perhaps why the US dollar is not willing to give back gains despite a relatively dovish Fed stance. The is up by around 1% since the Fed plotted 75bp cut for this year and said that it will also start slowing the pace of QT. Either the US dollar should weaken because the Fed is expected to cut three times this year with the first cut due in June - in which case we could continue to see the stock market laggards catch up with the leaders of the past quarters and capital to flow into the other-than-tech sectors as well. And in case of policy easing – as predicted - appetite should also broaden to small and mid cap stocks, to EM funds and to commodities. Or the US dollar should continue its recovery on the back of robust data and a pullback in Fed cut expectations, in which case we should see the stocks give back strength. But both a strong dollar and a stock rally is not sustainable in Q2. Eurozone economies under pressure, but ECB determined to fight inflation and the energy crisis are taking a toll on economies. Germany is expected to rise 0.1% this year – it’s more a stagnation than a rise. Slowing Eurozone economies and gloomy growth outlook for the next quarters back a June rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB), yes, but the ECB says that it won’t commit to other rate cuts beyond June, before making sure that inflation is on a solid path toward the 2% policy target. And indeed, inflation numbers from Spain confirmed a rebound in consumer prices in March as the government continued to remove support that helped tempering the otherwise-unbearable rise in energy prices. So yes, the last mile in reaching the 2% inflation goal is not a given for the European countries either. And that’s certainly why the EURUSD holds ground near the 1.08 level – it’s because the ECB looks determined to continue fighting inflation. But a robust GDP and a hot inflation report could break the back of the EURUSD bulls. The sumo fight between the Japanese officials and the yen bears remains intense as the yen bears are testing the Japanese nerves near the 152 level. The threat of FX intervention slows the yen selloff at the current levels, but we saw in the past that the post-intervention effects remain limited when the market is turbocharged with opposite direction trades. Therefore, any pullback in the – due to the threat of intervention or intervention – could remain short-lived. A hint of further policy tightening is certainly more effective than costly and barely effective FX threats.
#Equities #PortfolioRebalancing #FederalReserve #RateCut #UsDollar #Gdp #Inflation #Eurozone #EuropeanCentralBank #Eurusd #Yen #FxIntervention #PolicyTightening
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/something-must-give-202403280652
Gold price oscillates just below range upper limit at $2,200, bullish potential seems intact
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Gold price (XAU/USD) continues to struggle to break through the $2,200 mark and is currently oscillating in a range during the Asian session. The overnight hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller have cooled rate cut hopes and pushed the US Dollar (USD) closer to the monthly top, acting as a headwind for gold. Traders are awaiting more cues about the Fed's policy path before placing fresh directional bets. The Fed projected a less restrictive monetary policy going forward and indicated that it remains on track to cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2024. However, incoming US macro data suggests that the economy is in good shape and points to sticky inflation, which should allow the Fed to keep rates higher for longer. The release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data will influence expectations about the Fed's rate-cut path and provide fresh impetus to the gold price. Central banks are the biggest buyers of gold, with emerging economies such as China, India, and Turkey quickly increasing their gold reserves. Gold is widely seen as a safe-haven asset and a hedge against inflation and depreciating currencies. The price of gold can be influenced by factors such as geopolitical instability, economic data, and the behavior of the US Dollar. From a technical perspective, gold is in a range-bound consolidation phase, with oscillators on the daily chart holding comfortably in the positive territory, supporting the potential for an eventual breakout to the upside. Key support levels for gold are around $2,173, $2,164-2,163, and $2,146-2,145, while resistance is seen at $2,200 and the record high of $2,223.
#GoldPrice #FederalReserve #UsDollar #InterestRates #Inflation #CentralBanks