USD/CHF gathers strength above 0.9100 amid hawkish Fed remarks
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The USD/CHF pair is trading on a positive note, supported by lower rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Several Fed officials prefer to wait longer than previously expected to cut rates due to high inflation readings. SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan emphasized that monetary policy should remain focused on price stability. The pair's upside may be capped by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The highlights for the week include the preliminary US Gross Domestic Product Annualized for Q1 and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. The pair is currently trading near 0.9115.
#Usd/chf #FederalReserve #SwissNationalBank #Inflation #InterestRates
USD/CHF gathers strength above 0.9100 amid hawkish Fed remarks
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The USD/CHF pair is trading on a positive note, supported by lower rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Several Fed officials prefer to wait longer than previously expected to cut rates due to high inflation readings. SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan emphasized that monetary policy should remain focused on price stability. The pair's upside may be capped by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The highlights for the week include the preliminary US Gross Domestic Product Annualized for Q1 and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. The pair is currently trading near 0.9115.
#Usd/chf #FederalReserve #SwissNationalBank #Inflation #InterestRates
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US house passes military aid bill to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan
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The US House of Representatives has passed a $95 billion legislative package providing security assistance to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The Senate, controlled by the Democrats, is expected to vote on the bill on Tuesday. The bill aims to provide military aid to these countries and is seen as a response to the ongoing tensions with Russia and China. The passage of the bill reflects the US commitment to supporting its allies in the face of geopolitical challenges.
#UsHouseOfRepresentatives #MilitaryAid #Ukraine #Israel #Taiwan
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US house passes military aid bill to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan
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The US House of Representatives has passed a $95 billion legislative package providing security assistance to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The Senate, controlled by the Democrats, is expected to vote on the bill on Tuesday. The bill aims to provide military aid to these countries and is seen as a response to the ongoing tensions with Russia and China. The passage of the bill reflects the US commitment to supporting its allies in the face of geopolitical challenges.
#UsHouseOfRepresentatives #MilitaryAid #Ukraine #Israel #Taiwan
Dollar-Yen soars to fresh 34-year peak – BoJ’s Ueda warns on weak JPY
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The Dollar-Yen pair reached a fresh 34-year peak at 154.68, the highest since June 1990. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.63% on strong economic data, including a Manufacturing Index of 15.5 and Weekly Claims for Unemployment Benefits falling to 212K. The Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to 106.15, a 5-month high. The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) slid to 0.6420 after weak employment data, while the Euro (EUR/USD) dipped to 1.0645 due to dovish comments from ECB officials. Sterling (GBP/USD) eased to 1.2435. Bank of Japan President Kazuo Ueda warned that the central bank may raise interest rates if the Yen's decline significantly increases inflation. The Dollar Index is expected to be closely watched ahead of key Eurozone and US data releases.
#Dollaryen #BankOfJapan #Us10yearTreasuryYield #DollarIndex #AustralianDollar #Euro #Sterling
Dollar-Yen soars to fresh 34-year peak – BoJ’s Ueda warns on weak JPY
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The Dollar-Yen pair reached a fresh 34-year peak at 154.68, the highest since June 1990. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.63% on strong economic data, including a Manufacturing Index of 15.5 and Weekly Claims for Unemployment Benefits falling to 212K. The Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to 106.15, a 5-month high. The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) slid to 0.6420 after weak employment data, while the Euro (EUR/USD) dipped to 1.0645 due to dovish comments from ECB officials. Sterling (GBP/USD) eased to 1.2435. Bank of Japan President Kazuo Ueda warned that the central bank may raise interest rates if the Yen's decline significantly increases inflation. The Dollar Index is expected to be closely watched ahead of key Eurozone and US data releases.
#Dollaryen #BankOfJapan #Us10yearTreasuryYield #DollarIndex #AustralianDollar #Euro #Sterling
Japanese Yen remains pinned near multi-decade low against USD
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The Japanese Yen remains near a multi-decade low against the USD. The uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) further policy tightening and easing fears about a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are key factors undermining the JPY. The BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's hawkish rhetoric and warnings by Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki against excessive currency market moves help limit deeper JPY losses. Traders are reluctant to place fresh bets ahead of the crucial policy decision on Friday. Reduced Fed rate cut bets act as a tailwind for the USD and lend support to USD/JPY. Data released on Friday showed that Japan's consumer inflation eased more than expected in March, raising uncertainty about whether the Bank of Japan will raise rates again and weighing on the Japanese Yen. Iran's lack of plans to retaliate against the Israeli missile strike helps improve investors' appetite for riskier assets and further dents the JPY's safe-haven status. Fed funds futures suggest that the Federal Reserve is now anticipated to cut interest rates by roughly 40 basis points (bps), or less than two cuts this year starting September. The large rate differential between the US and Japan is expected to stay, acting as a headwind for the JPY and lending support to the USD/JPY pair. The focus will remain on the quarterly outlook report in the upcoming BoJ monetary policy decision. Important US macro data, including the Advance Q1 GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, will be released this week and influence the US Dollar price dynamics. From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair is consolidating near a multi-decade high, with slightly overbought RSI, suggesting bullish potential. The range-bound price action might still be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase, and any meaningful corrective pullback might be seen as a buying opportunity. The multi-decade high around the 154.75-154.80 region could act as an immediate hurdle, and a sustained strength beyond the 155.00 psychological mark will confirm a fresh breakout through the short-term trading range.
#JapaneseYen #Usd #BankOfJapan #FederalReserve #InterestRates
Weekly economic and financial commentary
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The article provides a summary of the economic and financial events that occurred during the week. In the United States, robust retail sales data, industrial production, and jobless claims indicate a strong economy. Internationally, tension between Israel and Iran continues, and inflation in England is easing. President Biden proposed higher tariffs on Chinese imports, but the effects of tariffs on Chinese-imported goods on U.S. industrial production have been marginal in the past. The article also provides information on trading risks in a fast market and the importance of placing limit orders to limit risk. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs gained traction, while gold stabilized. Bitcoin's post-halving rally may be partially priced in, and the upcoming week will see important economic data releases and the Bank of Japan's decision on interest rates.
#EconomicData #RetailSales #IndustrialProduction #JoblessClaims #IsraeliranTensions #Inflation #Tariffs #TradingRisks #CurrencyPairs #Gold #Bitcoin #EconomicCalendar #BankOfJapan
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary-202404191739
US Dollar sees slight Friday downfall as buyer momentum dwindles
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The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at 106.09, a mild loss from its recent peak of 106.35. The index remains geared toward testing its November 1 high of 107.10. Middle East tensions and hawkish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) may drive demand back to the USD. The US economy exhibits robust growth with persistent inflation, triggering a rally of US Treasury yields and benefiting the US Dollar. Higher Middle East tensions cultivate risk-off sentiment, affecting global markets. For the next Fed meeting, signs show some officials considering rate hikes, a major departure from the previous intentions of rate cuts. The US Treasury bond yields are falling but remain near multi-month highs. The DXY's position above the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) indicates that bulls still have control over the overall trend.
#UsDollar #Dxy #FederalReserve #MiddleEastTensions #Inflation #UsTreasuryYields
Canadian Dollar extends recovery amid an easing risk aversion
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The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is trading higher for the third consecutive session on Friday and is on track for a moderate weekly recovery after a sharp sell-off over the previous two weeks. A softer US Dollar in the absence of key macroeconomic data and easing fears about the Middle East conflict are contributing to the Loonie’s recovery. Investors seem to have come to terms with the idea that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay and scale down its monetary easing plans, which is allowing some take-profit for the US Dollar. Chicago President Austen Goolsbee has reiterated the lack of progress on inflation, but the impact on the US Dollar has been marginal. Furthermore, the Iranian authorities have played down rumours about a drone attack by Israel. With no further threat to an escalation of the conflict, the immediate risk aversion has gradually eased, which is good for the CAD.
#CanadianDollar #RiskAversion #Recovery #UsDollar #FederalReserve #Inflation #MiddleEastConflict
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-picks-up-as-geopolitical-concerns-ease-202404191559
US Dollar Forecast: Safe-haven inflows, hawkish Fed keep the momentum alive
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The US Dollar (USD) is forecasted to maintain its momentum due to safe-haven inflows and a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed). The USD Index (DXY) encountered resistance near 106.50 and investors now expect the Fed to cut rates in September. Hawkish Fedspeak and solid US economic data support a delay in cutting interest rates. The upcoming Q1 GDP figures will be important next week. The USD Index (DXY) could potentially reach the 2024 high at 106.51 and even the November top at 107.11. On the downside, the April bottom at 103.88 is supported by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 103.93. The Fed's rhetoric indicates a decreased likelihood of rate cuts, with policymakers advocating for prolonging the current restrictive stance. The ECB and BoE are expected to cut rates in the summer, while the Fed and RBA are expected to begin their easing cycles later this year. The Bank of Japan remains an outlier. The author does not provide personalized recommendations and the information should not be considered investment advice.
#UsDollar #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #Economy
Gold Forecast: Middle-East tensions keep bids high
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Gold (XAU/USD) price fluctuated in a relatively narrow range this week following the record-setting rally. Gold benefited from safe-haven flows and gathered bullish momentum at the beginning of the week as markets reacted to news of Iran launching an assault over the weekend, with dozens of drones and missiles in retaliation to the suspected Israeli attack on Iran’s consulate in Damascus on April 1. Gold gained more than 1.5% on Monday and registered its highest daily close on record. Meanwhile, the data from the US showed that [something] rose 0.7% on a monthly basis in March. This reading came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 0.3% but XAU/USD ignored the renewed US Dollar (USD) strength. Market participants will stay focused on geopolitics next week. A de-escalation of the Iran-Israel crisis could trigger a downward correction in XAU/USD and cause the market focus to shift to the US data. On the other hand, another retaliatory response by Iran could revive fears over a deepening crisis in the Middle East and allow Gold to continue to capitalize on safe-haven demand. On Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the Advanced Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the first quarter. In case the US economy posts a stronger-than-forecast annualized growth, the USD could hold its ground and weigh on XAU/USD. Since the beginning of April, Gold has been ignoring rising US yields and the broad USD strength. If geopolitics finally move to the back burner, Gold could come under bearish pressure, with investors adjusting their positions to growing expectations for a Fed policy hold in June. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a less than 20% chance the Fed will lower the policy rate by 25 basis points in June. On Friday, the BEA will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, for March. Thursday’s GDP report will include the PCE Price Index data for the first quarter. Hence, Friday’s PCE reading will not offer any surprises and is unlikely to trigger a market reaction. Moreover, Fed Chairman Powell said that the annual core PCE inflation was little changed in March, according to their estimates.
#Gold #Xau/usd #Geopolitics #IranisraelConflict #UsData
Polymarket traders see 32% chance of no Fed rate cuts this year
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Traders on Polymarket now put the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in 2024 at 32%, compared to 7% in March. Traditional markets have scaled back expectations to two 25 basis points rate cuts from six in early January. Betters on blockchain-based betting site Polymarket now see a 32% chance of the Fed keeping the benchmark interest rate steady between 5.25% and 5.5% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, punters see a 27% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut. The hawkish shift in the could dampen the demand for risk assets, including . According to some analysts, (BTC) surge to record highs above $73,000 in the first quarter was primarily fueled by the anticipation of swift interest rate cuts. Hawkish pricing on Polymarket is consistent with traditional markets, where traders now see just two 25 basis points rate cuts in 2024 versus six in early January. Bank of America recently pushed out the timing of the first Fed rate cut to December from June, while Societe Generale said the central bank would not cut rates until 2025.
#Fed #RateCuts #Polymarket #InterestRates #Probability
Markets hit by tech and geopolitics, weekend risk if Iran retaliates
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The article discusses the impact of technology and geopolitical tensions on the markets. Reports of explosions in Iran, Iraq, and Syria, including near a major nuclear facility in Iran, led to a spike in tensions. However, tensions gradually eased as no major damage or fatalities were reported. The WTI Crude oil price and gold price surged, while the yen and Swiss franc strengthened against the USD. The Nikkei lost over 3% and all equity markets were down heavily. Taiwan Semiconductor reported strong quarterly revenue growth, but its stock fell due to concerns about lower chip demand in certain sectors. Japan's national CPI for March decelerated more than expected. The article also mentions potential trouble with Vietnam's currency and the US equity futures being down due to the Middle East hostilities. The UK Retail Sales data came in mixed, adding to the weakness of GBP/USD. The article concludes by mentioning the fear of escalation between Israel and Iran and the shift of investors into safe-haven assets.
#Technology #Geopolitics #Iran #Tensions #Oil #Gold #EquityMarkets #ChipDemand #Cpi #Currency #MiddleEast #UkRetailSales #SafehavenAssets
EUR/USD Forecast: Euro looks to extend recovery beyond 1.0700
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EUR/USD gained traction and closed in positive territory on Wednesday, snapping a six-day losing streak. The pair continues to inch higher toward 1.0700 in the European session on Thursday and the near-term technical outlook highlights a buildup of recovery momentum. The renewed US Dollar (USD) weakness helped EUR/USD stage a decisive rebound midweek. In the absence of high-tier data releases, retreating US Treasury bond yields weighed on the USD. The risk-positive market environment could help the pair push higher. The US economic docket will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. Investors expect the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits to rise to 215,000 in the week ending April 13 from 211,000. A reading close to 220,000 could put additional weight on the USD's shoulders. Markets remain optimistic about an avoidance of a deepening Iran-Israel conflict, with the UK, the EU and the US looking to widen sanctions against Iran. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour climbed above 50 for the first time in a week and closed the last five 4-hour candles about the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reflecting a buildup of recovery momentum. 1.0700 (psychological level, static level) aligns as immediate resistance before 1.0720-1.0730 (50-period SMA, static level) and 1.0760 (100-period SMA). On the downside, 1.0660 (static level, former resistance) could be seen as first support ahead of 1.0640 (20-period SMA) and 1.0600 (psychological level, static level).
USD/CHF finds some support above 0.9100 amid the cautious mood, geopolitical tensions eyed
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The USD/CHF pair faces selling pressure to 0.9105 amid a decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY) and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced new sanctions targeting Iran and sanctions against entities supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran's Defense Ministry. Western leaders have urged Israel to exercise restraint against escalation. Strong US economic data and hawkish comments from the US central bank support the Greenback. The Federal Reserve's Powell stated that monetary policy needs to be restrictive for longer, dampening hopes for rate cuts. The USD/CHF pair is supported above 0.9100, but geopolitical tensions and US economic data will be closely monitored.
#Usd/chf #GeopoliticalTensions #MiddleEast #UsDollarIndex #SafehavenCurrency #InterestRateCuts #Iran #IslamicRevolutionaryGuardCorps #UsCentralBank #FederalReserve #UsEconomy #Inflation #SwissFranc #Greenback
Forex Today: UK inflation data support Pound Sterling, US Dollar consolidates before Fedspeak
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The UK's Office for National Statistics reported that annual inflation, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), edged lower to 3.2% in March from 3.4% in February. Additionally, core CPI rose 4.2% in the same period. Both of these readings came in above analysts' estimates and helped Pound Sterling gather strength. US Dollar consolidates before Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers deliver speeches on Wednesday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield moves sideways above 4.65% and US stock index futures trade marginally lower. The data from New Zealand showed that the CPI rose 4% on a yearly basis in the first quarter, down sharply from the 4.7% increase recorded in the previous quarter. The USD/JPY pair touched a multi-decade high near 154.80 on Tuesday and retreated slightly in the Asian session.
#Forex #UkInflation #PoundSterling #UsDollar #Fedspeak