Dow Jones gains after US PMI miss reignites rate cut hopes
==========
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbed on Tuesday after US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures softened unexpectedly, bringing broad-market hopes for an earlier-than-expected rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) back to the forefront. The US Manufacturing PMI slid to a four-month low of 49.9 on Tuesday, slipping back from the previous 51.9. The Services PMI also declined, falling to 50.9 from 51.7. Both PMI components were expected to tick upwards to 52.0. US GDP is currently projected to cool off to 2.5% for the first quarter on an annualized basis, while Friday’s Core PCE Price Index is expected to hold steady at 0.3% MoM in March. Despite broad-market gains for US equities, the Dow Jones remains tepid compared to the other mega indexes, with the DJIA gaining around seven-tenths of a percent. The Dow Jones is testing the 38,500.00 handle on Tuesday, with the day’s early low priced in at 38,206.51. The major equity index is up nearly eight-tenths of a percent on the day.
#DowJones #UsPmi #RateCut #UsFederalReserve #Gdp #PcePriceIndex #Equities
US Dollar dips following disappointing S&P PMI figures
==========
The US Dollar (USD) is trading softly at 105.70 tallying daily losses on Tuesday's session. The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 50.9 in April's flash estimate, indicating slower private sector growth in the US from March's 52.1. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI demonstrated a more noticeable drop from March's 51.9 to 49.9 in April, suggesting a contraction in US manufacturing sector activity. Similarly, April's S&P Global Services PMI decreased from 51.7 to 50.9. The weak PMIs made the USD face selling pressure. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has been sending a consistently hawkish message, which might limit the Greenback’s losses as markets delay the start of the easing cycle. PCE and GDP data later this week will likely fuel volatility in markets as they will continue shaping the expectation on the next Fed decisions.
#UsDollar #S&pPmi #FederalReserve #Pce #Gdp
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-dips-following-disappointing-sp-pmi-figures-202404231559
Germany’s economic come back
==========
Germany's service sector has led to a positive economic outlook, with the data for April showing strong expansion in the service sector PMIs for Germany, the UK, and the Eurozone. However, the manufacturing sector has contracted, with new orders and total new business falling. The employment situation in Germany's PMIs for April also showed contrasting fortunes for the service and manufacturing sectors, with the service sector adding employees and the manufacturing sector shedding staff. Inflation pressure appears to be moderating. Germany's economic recovery is dependent on the service sector and consumer spending, while the manufacturing sector remains weak. The stock market has reacted positively to the data, with the Dax leading the way in Europe. The outlook for the euro is positive, but there may be a cap on EUR/USD strength due to lower German bond yields. The immediate resistance for EUR/USD lies at $1.0700. The mid-cap stock index in Germany could outperform the large-cap Dax if the economic recovery continues.
#Germany #Economy #ServiceSector #ManufacturingSector #Pmi #Recession #Employment #Inflation #StockMarket #Euro
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/germanys-economic-come-back-202404231009
Gold price on April 23: Rates in main Indian cities
==========
Gold prices in India fell on April 23, according to data from India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). The price of gold stood at 71,357 Indian Rupees (INR) per 10 grams, down INR 1,354 compared to the previous day. Futures contracts for gold also decreased to INR 70,500 per 10 grams from INR 71,197 per 10 grams. The decline in gold prices can be attributed to easing tensions in the Middle East and hawkish bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Gold is widely seen as a safe-haven asset and a hedge against inflation and depreciating currencies. Central banks, particularly those in emerging economies like China, India, and Turkey, are the biggest buyers of gold. Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and its price is influenced by factors such as geopolitical instability, interest rates, and the strength of the US Dollar. Traders are also looking to economic data releases for further market direction.
#Gold #India #Mcx #FuturesContracts #MiddleEast #FederalReserve #InterestRates #UsDollar #UsTreasuries #GeopoliticalInstability
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-mcx-data-202404230811
On today’s US side of the equation we get April PMI’s
==========
Today, the focus is on the release of April PMI confidence indicators in the US and the Eurozone. The consensus bar is set low due to the current dire economic situation, with expectations of slight improvements in manufacturing and services sectors. The German Bundesbank suggests that Germany may have avoided a winter recession, but the economic situation remains weak. If the PMI data matches or exceeds expectations, it could push yields through resistance levels. The US Treasury is also starting its end-of-month refinancing operation with a record volume $69bn 2-year Note auction. The Japanese yen is not affected by verbal interventions warning or calls for a less easy monetary policy by the BoJ. The BoJ is set to give a new economic assessment on Friday. The UK PMI data and speeches by BoE officials are also being closely watched. The EUR/USD pair remains weak ahead of the Eurozone PMI data. ECB Villeroy states that the central bank cannot be the solution to the funding of the green transition and that private sources should provide the main part of the financing. Czech central bank policymaker Holub believes there is no need for the CNB to accelerate the pace of rate cuts as the economy shows signs of a rebound. The CNB is expected to revise its growth forecast and keep the current pace of rate cuts at the next meeting. Gold price continues to decline due to reduced safe-haven demand and lower expectations of Fed rate cuts. Pendle cryptocurrency sees a 10% price increase after Arthur Hayes' optimism on Pendle derivative exchange. Overall, the focus is on the PMI data releases and central bank actions in various countries.
#Pmi #EconomicData #CentralBanks #Yields #UsTreasury #JapaneseYen #Eur/usd #Ecb #GreenTransition #Cnb #GoldPrice #Cryptocurrency
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/on-todays-us-side-of-the-equation-we-get-april-pmis-202404230631
Focus on April PMIs today
==========
In the euro area, focus today will be on the euro area PMIs for April. The previous months' PMIs have shown a return of the two-speed economy with the service sector in expansionary territory and manufacturing sector stuck in contraction. We expect that service PMIs will remain above 50 as rising real wages and a strong labour market are supporting activity. The manufacturing PMIs will likely increase but stay below 50 as the global manufacturing cycle is slowly turning positive, inventory dynamics support production, and financial conditions have eased. We also keep an eye on PMIs from the UK. In Sweden, Riksbank governor Erik Thedéen gives a speech on and the current economy at 18.00 CET. The Hungarian National Bank will announce their rate decision following their rate setting meeting. We expect the bank to deliver a 50bp rate cut. If we are right, it will be the seventh cut since October last year. Tesla will deliver their Q1 earnings today, after Tesla fell 3.4% in yesterday's trading to record the seventh straight loss.
#Pmis #EuroArea #ServiceSector #ManufacturingSector #Sweden #Hungary #Riksbank #RateDecision #Tesla #Earnings
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/focus-on-april-pmis-today-202404230604
nostr:note1st8mm85ca0as7av2gg8n49ayhysaw7q3zn4kcfk32klyfsvvqhasqqdnrv
Focus on April PMIs today
==========
In the euro area, focus today will be on the euro area PMIs for April. The previous months' PMIs have shown a return of the two-speed economy with the service sector in expansionary territory and manufacturing sector stuck in contraction. We expect that service PMIs will remain above 50 as rising real wages and a strong labour market are supporting activity. The manufacturing PMIs will likely increase but stay below 50 as the global manufacturing cycle is slowly turning positive, inventory dynamics support production, and financial conditions have eased. We also keep an eye on PMIs from the UK. In Sweden, Riksbank governor Erik Thedéen gives a speech on and the current economy at 18.00 CET. The Hungarian National Bank will announce their rate decision following their rate setting meeting. We expect the bank to deliver a 50bp rate cut. If we are right, it will be the seventh cut since October last year. Tesla will deliver their Q1 earnings today, after Tesla fell 3.4% in yesterday's trading to record the seventh straight loss.
#Pmis #EuroArea #ServiceSector #ManufacturingSector #Sweden #Hungary #Riksbank #RateDecision #Tesla #Earnings
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/focus-on-april-pmis-today-202404230604
Japanese Yen bounces off multi-decade low against USD, lacks follow-through
==========
The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticks higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Tuesday and recovers a major part of the previous day's losses to a fresh 34-year low, though any meaningful recovery still seems elusive. Investors remain on alert amid speculations that Japanese authorities will intervene to prop up the domestic currency, which, in turn, is seen lending some support to the JPY. The upside potential, however, seems limited in the wake of expectations that the difference in rates between the US and Japan will stay wide for some time. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has indicated that it is in no rush in terms of policy normalization and is expected to wait until October before hiking interest rates again. In contrast, investors have been paring back their bets about interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) amid sticky inflation. Hawkish expectations, meanwhile, remain supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and continue to underpin the US Dollar (USD). Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, along with other policymakers, said that they are watching currency moves closely and will respond as needed, providing some respite to the Japanese Yen. The flash PMIs released from Japan on Tuesday showed that overall business activity improved substantially at the beginning of the second quarter, albeit did little to impress the JPY bulls. The au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI moved closer to breaking back into expansionary territory and improved from 48.2 to 49.9 in April – marking the strongest reading since June 2023. The gauge for the services sector came in at 54.6 for the reported month as compared to 54.1 in March, suggesting that demand remained strong despite weakness in other aspects of the economy. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its short-term interest target unchanged on Friday and adopt a data-dependent approach in deciding the next interest rate hike amid uncertainties on whether wage hikes will broaden and drive up consumer prices. Traders now look to the flash US PMIs for some impetus, though the focus remains on the Advance US Q1 GDP on Thursday and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday.
#JapaneseYen #Usd #BankOfJapan #FederalReserve #InterestRates
USD/CAD trades on a softer note below 1.3700 ahead of US PMI data
==========
USD/CAD is trading below 1.3700 and in negative territory for the fifth consecutive day. Canadian Industrial Produce Prices dropped by 0.8% MoM in March. The downside of the pair might be capped by strong US economic data and the Fed's hawkish comments. Investors are waiting for the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data later this week. Canadian Retail Sales will be released on Thursday. The decline of WTI prices exerts some selling pressure on the Canadian dollar. The high-for-longer rate narrative in the USD might lift the greenback against its rivals. The Core US PCE might offer some hints about the progress against inflation.
After Monday's relief rally, attention shifts to earnings and policy fronts
==========
After Monday's relief rally, global stock markets experienced a rebound in the S&P 500, snapping a six-day losing streak. Investors remain cautious on both the earnings and policy fronts. The upcoming Big Tech earnings reports from Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet are expected to influence short-term market dynamics significantly. The recent downturn in the stock market is linked to uncertainty surrounding the timing of Federal Reserve easing and evolving inflation landscape. The Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts is still debated, especially after Chair's more hawkish tone last week. Thursday's US data and Friday's release of the Super Core derivative from the PCE index will be crucial in determining the Fed's policy stance. The bond market has adjusted to unexpectedly hot data, now pricing in just 1.5 rate cuts for this year. The interconnectedness of macroeconomic policy and financial markets is an ongoing storyline. Policymakers need to heed caution in making short-term decisions influenced by recency bias.
#StockMarket #Earnings #Policy #FederalReserve #Inflation
After Monday's relief rally, attention shifts to earnings and policy fronts
==========
After Monday's relief rally, global stock markets experienced a rebound in the S&P 500, snapping a six-day losing streak. Investors remain cautious on both the earnings and policy fronts. The upcoming Big Tech earnings reports from Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet are expected to influence short-term market dynamics significantly. The recent downturn in the stock market is linked to uncertainty surrounding the timing of Federal Reserve easing and evolving inflation landscape. The Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts is still debated, especially after Chair's more hawkish tone last week. Thursday's US data and Friday's release of the Super Core derivative from the PCE index will be crucial in determining the Fed's policy stance. The bond market has adjusted to unexpectedly hot data, now pricing in just 1.5 rate cuts for this year. The interconnectedness of macroeconomic policy and financial markets is an ongoing storyline. Policymakers need to heed caution in making short-term decisions influenced by recency bias.
#StockMarket #Earnings #Policy #FederalReserve #Inflation
Canadian Dollar grinds out meager recovery ahead of Tuesday's US PMI figures
==========
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is moderately higher on Monday, trading into the green against most of its major currency peers. Canada brought strictly low-tier data to the table on Monday with an uptick in the Raw Materials. At the same time, Industrial Product Prices met expectations, printing higher but less than the previous figure. The Canadian New Home Price Index flattened in March, missing forecasts while retreating slightly from the same period last year. Tuesday's US PMIs expected to show a slight uptick in activity. Canadian Industrial Produce Prices came in at the expected 0.8% in March, easing back slightly from the previous month’s 1.1% (revised upward from 0.7%). The Canadian New Housing Price Index flatted in March, printing 0.0% versus the forecast steady hold at 0.1%. YoY NHPI eased back -0.4% as housing prices wobble following years of accelerated growth. Canada’s Raw Material Price Index jumped 3.7% in March, vaulting over the forecast 2.9% compared to February’s 2.1%. Canadian February Retail Sales due to print in the midweek, forecast to rebound to 0.1% on Wednesday after January's -0.3% decline. Tuesday’s US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be the key data print for the early week, with the Manufacturing component forecast at 52.0 (previous 51.9) and the Services component also anticipated to print at 52.0 (last 51.7). The Canadian Dollar is mounting a slow recovery, with the USD/CAD pair targeting 1.3700. The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation, and the Trade Balance. The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates. The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar.
#CanadianDollar #UsPmi #EconomicData #BankOfCanada #InterestRates #OilPrice #Inflation #TradeBalance
Canadian Dollar grinds out meager recovery ahead of Tuesday's US PMI figures
==========
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is moderately higher on Monday, trading into the green against most of its major currency peers. Canada brought strictly low-tier data to the table on Monday with an uptick in the Raw Materials. At the same time, Industrial Product Prices met expectations, printing higher but less than the previous figure. The Canadian New Home Price Index flattened in March, missing forecasts while retreating slightly from the same period last year. Tuesday's US PMIs expected to show a slight uptick in activity. Canadian Industrial Produce Prices came in at the expected 0.8% in March, easing back slightly from the previous month’s 1.1% (revised upward from 0.7%). The Canadian New Housing Price Index flatted in March, printing 0.0% versus the forecast steady hold at 0.1%. YoY NHPI eased back -0.4% as housing prices wobble following years of accelerated growth. Canada’s Raw Material Price Index jumped 3.7% in March, vaulting over the forecast 2.9% compared to February’s 2.1%. Canadian February Retail Sales due to print in the midweek, forecast to rebound to 0.1% on Wednesday after January's -0.3% decline. Tuesday’s US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be the key data print for the early week, with the Manufacturing component forecast at 52.0 (previous 51.9) and the Services component also anticipated to print at 52.0 (last 51.7). The Canadian Dollar is mounting a slow recovery, with the USD/CAD pair targeting 1.3700. The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation, and the Trade Balance. The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates. The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar.
#CanadianDollar #UsPmi #EconomicData #BankOfCanada #InterestRates #OilPrice #Inflation #TradeBalance
Forex week ahead: US GDP, BoJ and core PCE inflation
==========
This week's main events in the forex market include the release of US GDP data, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) meeting, and the release of the core PCE inflation figure. Economists expect the US GDP growth rate for Q1 2024 to be 2.5%, down from 3.4% in the previous quarter. The BoJ is expected to leave rates unchanged after a previous rate hike failed to strengthen the Yen. The core PCE inflation figure, which is the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, will be closely watched. A higher-than-expected figure could weigh on markets, while a lower figure would be welcome. The US figures this week will shape the Fed's decision next week, and the BoJ may struggle to halt the Yen's deterioration.
#Forex #UsGdp #BankOfJapan #CorePceInflation
Will US GDP boost the Dollar Index? [Video]
==========
The article discusses the potential impact of the US GDP release on the Dollar Index. The preliminary release of US GDP for the first quarter is expected on Thursday, with the possibility of a higher-than-anticipated figure. The Atlanta GDPNow model predicts growth of 2.9% compared to the forecast of 2.4%. On Friday, the core PCE for March will be released, along with personal consumption and income data. The article also mentions the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision and the Eurozone flash PMIs. The USD/JPY pair has been finding strong resistance near the 34-year high of 154.77, while EUR/USD is moving sideways after rebounding from a five-month low. The services PMI in the Eurozone is expected to rise to 51.9 and the manufacturing PMI to 46.5 in April.
#UsGdp #DollarIndex #Usd/jpy #BojDecision #EurozoneFlashPmis #Eur/usd
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/will-us-gdp-boost-the-dollar-index-video-202404220953
nostr:note1lzptu50qdwuhvx6jfupamuers8julgua3u8sggv8czfy5vfpt0jqy7ua4a
Will US GDP boost the Dollar Index? [Video]
==========
The article discusses the potential impact of the US GDP release on the Dollar Index. The preliminary release of US GDP for the first quarter is expected on Thursday, with the possibility of a higher-than-anticipated figure. The Atlanta GDPNow model predicts growth of 2.9% compared to the forecast of 2.4%. On Friday, the core PCE for March will be released, along with personal consumption and income data. The article also mentions the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision and the Eurozone flash PMIs. The USD/JPY pair has been finding strong resistance near the 34-year high of 154.77, while EUR/USD is moving sideways after rebounding from a five-month low. The services PMI in the Eurozone is expected to rise to 51.9 and the manufacturing PMI to 46.5 in April.
#UsGdp #DollarIndex #Usd/jpy #BojDecision #EurozoneFlashPmis #Eur/usd
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/will-us-gdp-boost-the-dollar-index-video-202404220953
Will US GDP boost the Dollar Index? [Video]
==========
The article discusses the potential impact of the US GDP release on the Dollar Index. The preliminary release of US GDP for the first quarter is expected on Thursday, with the possibility of a higher-than-anticipated figure. The Atlanta GDPNow model predicts growth of 2.9% compared to the forecast of 2.4%. On Friday, the core PCE for March will be released, along with personal consumption and income data. The article also mentions the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision and the Eurozone flash PMIs. The USD/JPY pair has been finding strong resistance near the 34-year high of 154.77, while EUR/USD is moving sideways after rebounding from a five-month low. The services PMI in the Eurozone is expected to rise to 51.9 and the manufacturing PMI to 46.5 in April.
#UsGdp #DollarIndex #Usd/jpy #BojDecision #EurozoneFlashPmis #Eur/usd
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/will-us-gdp-boost-the-dollar-index-video-202404220953