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dev @btcframe, running #bitcoin.

The FED cuts 25 bps and signals fewer cuts in 2025 than previously anticipated. Now, the market will attempt to price in this new outlook. Short-term headwinds are likely for all risk assets. I feel like small caps will get slaughtered the most, as they are the most sensitive to high interest rates.

Don’t have the latest data, but this could give you an idea.

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It’s the most successful ETF launch in history. In about a year since its inception, it has nearly doubled the gold ETF in terms of net assets held. This signals massive mainstream interest. Are they long-term investors, short-term traders, or day traders looking for quick wins? Only time will tell. But one thing is certain: Bitcoin is the most liquid and borderless asset, traded 24/7. Imagine selling a 5th ave building worth $5 billion over the weekend in a matter of hours, if not minutes. This characteristic of Bitcoin itself is enough to attract big capital globally, which is incredibly bullish IMO, from the trading perspective. We already know its worth as a store of value, and inflation-hedge so no need to mention that part.

Of course, it can outflow at any time—that’s not specific to Bitcoin ETFs or the type of instrument you’re holding. If you wanna liquidate an asset, it doesn’t matter whether you hold it via an ETF or self-custody. And how did you come to the conclusion that it’s overbought? Hope you’re not measuring this through RSI.

Bitcoin ETFs have quickly attracted massive inflows, showing strong mainstream adoption on both insti and retail sides. This also highlights growing confidence in Bitcoin as an investment asset over tradfi assets like gold. Obviously, we'd all prefer individuals to buy actual Bitcoin directly, but holding their own keys isn’t everyone’s preference nor is it within their technical understanding of the asset.

BlockRock Bitcoin ETF vs BlockRock Gold ETF. Note that their Gold ETF has been around since 2009.

We are not bullish enough on #Bitcoin.

I often see questions like, “How much #Bitcoin is enough?” or “How many coins will set you for life?” The answer, of course, depends on your lifestyle, timeframe, and where you live, etc. But there is a simple benchmark that I believe holds true and that is the block reward. I believe acquiring an amount of Bitcoin equal to the block reward could set you up for life in about 5 yrs or less. I know it is very very hard for most us at this point but this is what will seperate extraordinary from the ordinary in terms of wealth.

If 200 million people wanted to own #Bitcoin and each person had $10k to deploy, that would equal the entire 21 million supply. We’re not talking about billionaires or even millionaires, nor about companies or nation-states. Just normal people with modest means willing to purchase $10k worth of Bitcoin. Once the supply shock kicks in, you won’t believe where Bitcoin’s price will end up.

Let’s support #Bitcoin developers to keep building—not just the core developers, but everyone contributing. Their work shapes the future, and they fucking deserve all the motivation and recognition.