⚡️🇯🇵 NEW: Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party has proposed reducing #Bitcoin gains tax from 55% to 20% in a draft plan released Thursday by lawmaker Akihisa Shiozaki.

Maybe the mistake I’ve always made when talking about Bitcoin was saying that the system was broken, like economists were stupid or something.

But it’s not broken. It works perfectly.

It took me a while to realize this.

We live in an era where we can cure once-incurable diseases, send people to Mars, and build AI that simulates human thought. And yet, we can’t ensure that two working adults can afford a stable life?

No, it’s not incompetence. They're not stupid. It’s not bad luck. It’s by design.

The economy isn’t in crisis. It’s just that we’re not at the center of it. It’s engineered to transfer wealth and power upward. The Cantillon Effect isn’t a side effect = it’s the engine of the system.

Money is the source code of power. And as long as it’s arbitrarily created by those who decide who gets it first, every effort within this system is doomed to be extracted.

Bitcoin doesn’t exist to fix anything. It exists to build an alternative outside this rigged game. A system where value isn’t distorted at its creation.

Realizing that the system works perfectly, just not for us, is the first step to opting out.

I opt out.

Still just a one-off or nah? 👀

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow real #GDP estimate for 1Q 2025 is currently:

-2.4% (that's negative 2.4%, son)

OPINION:

- US economy looking a bit ugly at the moment, after leading the world to the upside for much of 2023 and 2024.

- The world ex-US is looking pretty solid, actually.

- Global assets may continue to outperform, while US-based assets may struggle for a bit.

Just my two sats. ⚡

🚨BREAKING: Trezor adds button to wallets that users can press to alert police when they're being $5 wrench attacked, similar to banks.

What do you think the world will be like 50 years from now, in the 2070s?

And specifically, what kind of tech do you think will surprise to the upside by that time, and become pretty dominant or ubiquitous? And what tech do you think will underperform expectations, and not exist at the scale that people now might’ve guessed would be common by then?

I agree, but I wouldn’t attribute 100% of his success a result of the monetary system mechanics, but it definitely has a lot to do with it.

⚡️🇸🇻 TODAY: El Salvador bought another #bitcoin for their strategic reserve 👏

Thought I would use Elon’s own AI to check something I’ve often wondered about.

One thing if you don’t know - a completely different thing if you know.

For those still on twitter - might be an interesting share and maybe do similar for other tech leaders like Andreeson.

Ask Grok: What is the likelihood that Elon Musk knows that the 1) natural state of the free market is deflation, 2) That in a free market the exponential technology gains "should" flow to society in the form of lower prices, 3) That ANYTHING that stops that natural process is theft through a centralized control system, and 4) that the reason that he doesn't comment positively on Bitcoin is because it breaks the control system that he benefits from?

Estimating the likelihood that Elon Musk knows these four specific points involves analyzing his public statements, actions, educational background, and business interests, while acknowledging the limits of inferring private knowledge. Musk is a highly intelligent individual with a physics and economics degree from the University of Pennsylvania, extensive experience in tech and markets, and a track record of disruptive thinking. Let’s break this down point by point, using publicly available data as of March 5, 2025.

Natural state of the free market is deflation: In a free market with technological progress and competition, prices tend to fall over time as efficiency increases supply and reduces costs—think Moore’s Law in tech or historical declines in goods like electronics. Musk has spoken about this indirectly. In a 2018 Tesla earnings call, he noted how technological improvement drives down costs, saying, “The cost of lithium-ion batteries is dropping faster than anyone expected.” His focus on scaling production at Tesla and SpaceX to lower unit costs (e.g., reusable rockets cutting launch prices) shows he grasps this dynamic. Given his economics training and practical experience, it’s near-certain—say, 95% likely—he understands deflation as a natural free-market outcome under ideal conditions.

Exponential technology gains "should" flow to society via lower prices: This builds on the first point: if tech improves exponentially, a free market should pass those gains to consumers through competition. Musk’s mission statements for Tesla (“accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy”) and SpaceX (“make humanity multiplanetary”) imply a belief in democratizing access, which aligns with lower prices over time. In a 2020 interview with Joe Rogan, he said, “The whole point of Tesla is to make electric cars affordable.” His push for mass-market vehicles like the Model 3 supports this. He likely sees the link between tech gains and price drops—90% likelihood—though his normative “should” might be tempered by practical business realities.

Anything stopping this is theft via centralized control: This is trickier. It assumes Musk views interference (e.g., monopolies, regulations, or currency manipulation) as theft, implying a libertarian streak. Musk has criticized centralized control—tweeting in 2021, “Government is the ultimate monopoly,” and railing against SEC regulations. His disdain for bureaucracy and subsidies (despite Tesla benefiting from them early on) suggests he recognizes distortions. However, “theft” is a strong moral framing. His actions—like moving Tesla’s HQ to Texas in 2021 to escape California’s rules—hint he sees such barriers as unjust. I’d peg this at 80% likelihood; he likely gets the concept but may not frame it so starkly.

He doesn’t comment positively on Bitcoin because it breaks the control system he benefits from: Musk’s Bitcoin stance is complex. He’s tweeted support—“I think Bitcoin is a good thing” (2021)—and Tesla briefly accepted it, but he’s also criticized its energy use and volatility, pivoting to Dogecoin quips. Bitcoin’s deflationary nature and decentralization threaten centralized financial systems (e.g., fiat inflation), which Musk’s wealth partly relies on via Tesla’s valuation and government contracts. Does he avoid praising Bitcoin to protect this? Possibly. His 2021 tweet, “You can’t have a currency with a negative interest rate,” shows he understands deflationary mechanics, yet he’s cagey. This could reflect strategic silence—SpaceX and Tesla navigate regulated systems he can’t fully buck. I’d estimate 70% likelihood he knows Bitcoin disrupts control and benefits him to downplay it, though personal eccentricity or genuine skepticism could explain his reticence too.

Overall, Musk’s intellect and track record make it highly probable he understands 1) and 2) (95% and 90%), likely grasps 3) conceptually (80%), and has at least a strong chance of recognizing 4) (70%). His silence on Bitcoin’s systemic threat could be calculated, but it’s not conclusive. Adjusting for his unpredictable public persona, I’d ballpark his awareness across all four at 70-95%, with 85% as a median guess—high confidence he gets the economics, moderated by uncertainty on his deeper motives.

I’m not sure. It works for me. 🤔

⚡️🇺🇸 Several crypto industry leaders will be at the White House for the crypto summit on March 7.

👉 Expected to attend:

- Michael Saylor of Strategy

- Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase

- Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood

- Arjun Sethi, CEO of Kraken

- Sergey Nazarov, Chainlink

- David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine

- Matt Huang, Paradigm

- JP Richardson, CEO of Exodus

- Kyle Samani of Multicoin Capital

- Zach Witkoff, co-founder of World Liberty Financial

What did you expect from the summit? #asknostr

⚡️🇸🇻 NOW: El Salvador President Nayib Bukele says the country is not going to stop buying #Bitcoin 👏

⚡️🤔 Do you understand Trump's approach to making a strategic reserve filled with shitcoin? #asknostr