I never know how to kick things off, either

The decline feels slow right now, but a more rapid reversion to the mean can happen at any time and with seemingly no trigger. I think a lot of cash poor enterprises offering optional or luxury services (like one-click food delivery) will fade away as cash-strapped consumers turn away either in disgust or under the pressure of inflation.

Should we be presented with a violent unwinding scenario, I think I t’s possible we’ll see a brief spike in the value of the USD due to a temporary demand to cover USD-denominated debt obligations. Only after the dust settles will people realize it’s time for a new store of value. Perhaps that’s BTC.