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kravietz šŸ¦‡
60a94a39eef05a48fcb0b214f57ecd9c81ffd70bd7beaa274732ae7ae7dcf0ea
Information security consultant in UK and EU, entrepreneur. Education in chemical engineering, supporter of #nuclear and #renewables. Born in #Poland, fluent ##Russian and #Ukrainian. Been going to both for 20+ years. Actively supporting Ukraine's independence. I almost always follow back. I prefer to discuss any views as long as they are supported by arguments and evidence, I do ban for insults and hate speech. Started #networking on #Fidonet in 1990s. #linux #freebsd #ukraine #poland #nuclear #renewables #infosec #russia #speleo #caving #suricata #wazuh #crowdsec

After #Azerbeijan announced it will seek justice and compensation from #Russia for shooting down the #J28243 flight, a prominent Russian writer Lev Vershinin called Azerbeijan president ā€œwhining f..gotā€ because he dares to raise some complaints towards the powerful sacred Russia. Interestingly, Vershinin doesn’t even live in Russia, he lives in #Spain.

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After #Azerbeijan announced it will seek justice and compensation from #Russia for shooting down the #J2843 flight, a prominent Russian writer Lev Vershinin called Azerbeijan president ā€œwhining f..gotā€ because he dares to raise some complaints towards the powerful sacred Russia. Interestingly, Vershinin doesn’t even live in Russia, he lives in #Spain.

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As we can see today, sometimes only an absence of a privilege lets some people notice they did indeed enjoy the privilege.

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Russia says PMR (Transnistria) is an ā€œindependent republicā€

So Russia supplies gas to PMR

But PMR never pays for the gas

So Russia says PMR is part of Moldova, so Moldova should pay for the gas

The did exactly the same thing with Donbas and Ukraine after 2014. The whole scheme is of course based on a contradictory and absurd double recognition of these territories as ā€œindependentā€ and ā€œlegally controlled by Ukraineā€ at the same time, exclusively for the sake of this extortion. But from Western perspective nobody understood this and nobody cared, people here just can’t believe a country as big as #Russia can run such as scam on such a scale.

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Well, the ā€œanthracite offerā€ was a fully legitimate tongue in the cheek highlight of the fact, that if Russian occupation administration can send thousands of tons of anthracite from the occupied Donbas to Turkey, why not send it to Transnistria instead, if they’re so much concerned about its wellbeing?

Same story for the Russian ownership of MGRES - ownership is one thing, but it’s not Russian energy company controlling the plant remotely, but their local representatives. It’s them who have the decisive power over what is actually happening on the ground there, not Moscow. What would Russians do if locals decided to operate the plant as they like - go to an international arbitration court, with a complaint regarding an unrecognised ā€œrepublicā€ that is actually a legal blackhole, because Russians made it one?

From my perspective, both offers are a clear offer to Tiraspol and Moscow, who should make their mind. Either they play by the latter of law, but in this case everything they’ve been doing in Transnistria and Donbas is illegal, or they’re playing by ā€œdog eat dogā€ rules, but they shouldn’t be surprised if their opponent does so too. You can’t play by both sets of rules, flexibly switching between them when it suits you.

After lengthy planning and permissions process, #Poland started actual construction work on three off-shore wind farms on #Baltic sea totaling 3 GW installed power. In engineering terms, an interesting solution is a 1.5 km submarine tunnel 40 m below sea bottom for the high current cables to avoid damage on shallow waters.

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It’s the same argument as we heard a lot in 2011-2022: ā€œokay, maybe PV requires Russian gas but at least gas is cleaner than coalā€.

How much of a fallacy that is was brutally demonstrated in 2022 when the Russian gas had to be replaced by coal and then more expensive gas from US and Norway.

But gas from Norway and US is more expensive specifically because none of these countries had a history of blackmailing EU with cutting gas supplies, which Gazprom routinely did. By sticking to the ā€œcheaperā€ gas from Russia, we developed a strategic dependency (see the 2015 slide below) that had hit us hard in 2021 and I would argue it has actually enabled the Russian invasion on Ukraine .

And we’re just stepping into the same river now. Chinese PV, is cheap specifically because it’s manufactured not only in denial of all the EU values but also highly subsidised with the sole purpose of obtaining a practical monopoly in the supply chain and create a strategic dependence.

But more importantly, this supply chain also includes Chinese inverters that nobody talks about but which control the actual electricity output from any PV and can be disabled remotely, this is just asking for another ā€œGazprom 2021ā€ repetition.

And PV specifically is probably the worst possible example for ā€œreplacing fossil fuelsā€, at least at our longitudes - in Germany, PV is the largest single source of electricity in terms of installed (potential) power, at around ~90 GW but its actual electricity output is rather miserable 14.5%

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Please also note that no amount of greenwashing can erase the climate and environmental impact of mining and processing of these minerals with zero regard for environment only because the happy PV investors in EU pretend they don’t see how it’s being done 🤷

Either your objective is decarbonisation and environmental protection, or your goal is investment bank KPI such as ā€œincreased share of renewablesā€, in which case it will be delivered at any cost. But you can’t do both.

The new, low-emission energy sources can be either manufactured in a sustainable way, that is in EU, US or other countries that stick to high environmental standards, or they are not sustainable. That’s very simple.

Manufacturing PV in China with the use of forced labour and electricity from coal is literally the textbook definition of ā€œnot sustainableā€. Continued global temperature anomaly growth in spite of EU countries going for incredible sacrifices in terms of energy prices is the price we’re paying for this hypocrisy, because CO2 emitted in China doesn’t magically disappear just because an EU ā€œenvironmentalistā€ doesn’t see it.

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There’s nothing impressive in persistent denialism of supply chains that are very well documented by IEA just for the sake of a tribal argument…

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You seem to be obsessively concerned about the semantics of geographic nomenclature in Central Asia, but I can assure you this doesn’t change anything in nuclear fuel logistics globally :)

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In 2012 the town of #Donetsk hosted EURO-2012, in 2025 people people throw bagged faeces through the windows because water sewage doesn’t work. ā€œRussian worldā€ has finally arrived…

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#Russia loan interest rates may reach 40-50% in 2025, predicts a financial expert from the State Financial University, if Central Bank will further raise the base rate to 23-24% (it’s now at 21%). Right now the interest reaches 35-40% per year.

Source: https://finance.mail.ru/2025-01-21/finansist-schitaet-chto-stavki-po-kreditam-mogut-vyrasti-do-50-64527063/ (in Russian)

Polish PM Donald Tusk speech on the beginning of #Poland presidency in EU, he goes through various topics and issues, reaches the topic of energy prices and says with quite desperation that EU simply can’t survive with energy prices 3x higher than in USA, because that’s impacting economy and people and boosting popularity of populist parties. And you can hear some people booing.

I’m just wondering what they’ve got in their minds? That’s prices aren’t high? That they aren’t impacting people? That populist parties aren’t rising in power? šŸ¤”

P.S. I will import his speech into PeerTube later on, for now it’s broadcast live

https://multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/webstreaming/plenary-session_20250122-0900-PLENARY?seekTo=250122104035

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These things are partially connected. For example, in 2015 Merkel famously invited all asylum seekers to Germany. Now they reintroduced border checks… on the Polish border but back then they refused to even acknowledge the fact that the migration crisis was engineered by Belarus and Russia, even when Lukashenko said that explicitly. This denial not only convinced them of their impunity, but also aggravated the problems they caused, and gave rise to the far-right. When people see that the ruling party can’t deal with a problem, they will resort to one that does - or at least claims so.

Can’t say much about US, but I suppose it’s the same there.

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You’ve got more than enough independent WP:RS citations so I don’t know what’s the problem they’re having… The argument about ā€œ15 years old kidā€ is just silly, there’s tons of much more complex articles on Wikipedia.

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Well, five years ago it was already 6 years since Russia annexed Crimea and invaded Ukraine, 5 years since they blew up ammunition depot in a NATO country, 14 years since they assassinated Litvinenko and 2 years since they tried to assassinate Skripal but instead killed a homeless woman. The primary reason why they did all of the above was that when they continuously escalated everyone was looking the other side and loudly repeating ā€œlet’s not talk about itā€.

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https://ipsec.pl/writing-meaningful-and-professional-penetration-testing-reports.html

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