Why does my #muun wallet lightning payment have to wait for an on chain confirmation?
Just downloaded the public release of #primal on iPhone. Can I no longer use my #alby wallet to zap like I could on TestFlight version? When I go to zaps it’s saying I need to create a wallet with email and name and no other options. #asknostr #zaps #alby #getalby
GM and HF!!!
Going to be a beaaaaauuuutttiiiifuuulll day here in West Michigan. High of 52 degrees and sun!
nostr:npub1sg6plzptd64u62a878hep2kev88swjh3tw00gjsfl8f237lmu63q0uf63m has done a ton for the space so hard to knock him and honestly life is too short to just complain about the bad things vs. appreciate the good things.
But with that being said I’m surprised to see him launch a #bitcoin product that we can’t purchase with #bitcoin for as long as he’s been in this space. I’m sure there’s a reason for it but was a little bummed. Either way I pre-ordered
“Time Preference”- 23rd Edition
1) # Full nodes (reachable) - 17,241 (+3.17%)
2) # LN nodes - 13,668 (-0.70%)
3) LN capacity (BTC) - 5,088 (-6.06%)
4) BTC addresses > 1M sats - 12.54M (+0.25%)
5) BTC addresses > 10M sats - 4.55M (+0.25%)
6) BTC addresses > 100M sats - 1.02M (+0.09%)
7) Hashrate (EH/s) - 496 (n/c)
8) Price - $39,989 (+6.75%) (Sunday close)
9 Price/Hashrate - 81 (+6.75%)
10) Michigan businesses accepting BTC (btcmap.org) - 17 (-22.73%)
* % change figures from prev.
Back from vacation and #Bitcoin is still here, nice! I don't know how accurate the # of full nodes stat is depending on the day of the week that I pull it but we're seeing just over a 3% increase in nodes on the network (reachable) which is wonderful. That's the highest number in 23 weeks, the only other above 17k reading goes back to July this year.
We did lose some LN capacity, still hovering above the psychological (nothing more) 5k BTC capacity. I'm sure it's just a matter of time before this number takes off again. LN nodes and addresses relatively flat, hashrate hovering right around 500, which is still wild.
Right after I said it might be a good time to pay some bills last week we get almost a 7% increase in price. Sounds about par for the course, trying to time price action is quite silly. Bitcoin has it's own rhythm.
Have a great week as we head towards the end of the year. Trying to find some grace and presence during these times myself.
#bitcoin #timepreference #mining #Einundzwanzig #michigan #LightningNetwork ⚡️
“Time Preference”- 22nd Edition
1) # Full nodes (reachable) - 16,711 (-1.72%)
2) # LN nodes - 13,765 (-0.71%)
3) LN capacity (BTC) - 5,416 (+0.38%)
4) BTC addresses > 1M sats - 12.51M (+0.43%)
5) BTC addresses > 10M sats - 4.54M (+0.29%)
6) BTC addresses > 100M sats - 1.02M (+0.20%)
7) Hashrate (EH/s) - 496 (n/c)
8) Price - $37,460 (+0.09%) (Sunday close)
9 Price/Hashrate - 76 (+0.09%)
10) Michigan businesses accepting BTC (btcmap.org) - 22 (n/c)
* % change figures from prev.
Not a lot to speak of this week and I'm on vacation so I'll keep it short. Price action is odd to me, don't know why just seems / feels odd. Network growth and addresses continues to tick up, a breather in hash rate and some decreases in full and LN nodes.
We've had quite a year in price action, up like 125%. Might be a decent time to pay off some fiat bills if you have them heading into the end of the year. I did say a few weeks back $50k by end of year but idk, just feels odd right now. Always keeping an open mind with this new monetary system. Patience and time preference.
#bitcoin #timepreference #mining #Einundzwanzig #michigan #LightningNetwork ⚡️
Dump, liquidate, squeeze shorts and let spot bid take us higher. rinse and repeat really this while uptrend, it’s a beautiful sight to see
“Time Preference”- 21st Edition
1) # Full nodes (reachable) - 17,004 (+0.24%)
2) # LN nodes - 13,864 (-1.13%)
3) LN capacity (BTC) - 5,395 (+0.79%)
4) BTC addresses > 1M sats - 12.46M (+0.69%)
5) BTC addresses > 10M sats - 4.52M (+0.34%)
6) BTC addresses > 100M sats - 1.02M (+0.09%)
7) Hashrate (EH/s) - 496 (+8.30%)
8) Price - $37,426 (+0.92%) (Sunday close)
9 Price/Hashrate - 75 (-6.81%)
10) Michigan businesses accepting BTC (btcmap.org) - 22 (n/c)
* % change figures from prev.
Hash rate rips higher, almost over 500 EH/s now! It’s really crazy when you think about what hash rate has done the last 2 years. Price did closed the week higher but we’re seeing a nice little correction to start the week, let’s all how this week plays out. I’m not certain the trend is done yet before a nicer correction but it’s so hard to gage how this whole ETF bull shit will play out.
The big news this week as we all know is a Libertarian president was elected in South America’s second largest country. Still letting that sink in myself. Doesn’t mean a ton in the near term but these are the types of things that have massive implications on BTC adoption over a long enough time period at a global scale. Watching him bash a central bank piñata was amazing.
Have a great short week here in America and enjoy time with family and friends!
#bitcoin #timepreference #mining #Einundzwanzig #michigan #LightningNetwork ⚡️
Nope just kidding.
HF though
Something happened
Keeping a close eye on all assets and their reaction to a day like today, #bitcoin included. Have to imagine a long-awaited pop in the #vix awaits us
I hope people locked in some profits on their shitcoins, proper flush coming
“Time Preference”- 20th Edition
1) # Full nodes (reachable) - 16,963 (+1.67%)
2) # LN nodes - 14,022 (+0.50%)
3) LN capacity (BTC) - 5,353 (-0.45%)
4) BTC addresses > 1M sats - 12.37M (+0.66%)
5) BTC addresses > 10M sats - 4.50M (+0.28%)
6) BTC addresses > 100M sats - 1.02M (+0.03%)
7) Hashrate (EH/s) - 458 (-2.55%)
8) Price - $37,086 (+5.82%) (Sunday close)
9 Price/Hashrate - 81 (+8.60%)
10) Michigan businesses accepting BTC (btcmap.org) - 22 (n/c)
* % change figures from prev.
Damn, 20 weeks I've been doing this now! Largest increase in addresses over 1M sats since we started this, the next highest goes all the way back to week of 7/30 where we increase 0.44% vs. the 0.66% this past week. I'm sure this surprises none given the recent price action but it's still cool to see the dynamics of how adoption grows play out in real time.
Good continuation in price, let's see when we correct where that next higher low establishes itself.
Not much else to note, price goes up and LN capacity and channels hold steady. I do still need to add some better metrics around LN adoption - I'll get to that.
Have a great week!
#bitcoin #timepreference #mining #Einundzwanzig #michigan #lightningnetwork⚡️
“Responsibly all-in.”
“I like the orange coin. A lot.”
My research and audience straddles the macro finance world and the bitcoin world. And so humorously, I get heat from both sides.
“Lyn, I love your macro work but you’re too obsessed with bitcoin; I wish you would focus less on that stuff.” -hedge fund reader.
Vs
“Lyn, since you’re a fellow bitcoiner, why do you only have a 5-10% allocation to bitcoin in your public model portfolios!? Shouldn’t you sell all your stocks and buy more?” -fellow pleb.
I talk to many institutions, as well as high net worth individuals, and medium net worth individuals like engineers and doctors. This is where individual situations come into play. I had been watching bitcoin for a while, publicly wrote about it near the top of the cycle in 2017 and (correctly) passed on it from that point, but then kept watching it during the bear market and then hardcore jumped into it during the March/April 2020 crash starting at $6,900/coin as a long-term bull, and haven’t wavered since.
For example, 2.5 years later as Bitcoin crashed amid the FTX fallout in November 2022 from 69k to sub-16k, I was at Pacific Bitcoin laughing about it. I was not uncertain.
In those initial months of 2020, I put every dollar of my liquid capital into bitcoin. I didn’t sell my existing stocks and trigger capital gains tax, didn’t withdraw from my IRA or 401(k), but otherwise most of my existing liquid cash and all of my incoming earned cash went into bitcoin. I threw like a quarter of my net worth into it. And it paid off. For me as a conservative investor, that was my version of “all-in”. I wasn’t fucking around. I never go all-in like that, but I did it for bitcoin.
I grew up poor, and then worked for 12 years in engineering and engineering management. There is no world where I would invest in such a way that there was even a 1% chance that I could be wrong and lose my entire net worth and the past 12 years of my work at that point. I would never be 100% invested unless I consider it to be risk-free, and I consider nothing to be risk-free, and so I diversify by default. I am conservative as a baseline, but opportunistic when appropriate. I put at most 5% into any one stock, but I threw 25% into bitcoin as an anomaly due to how bullish I was. My husband was like, “what are we doing?” and I was like, “trust me, here’s why”.
And then, there are eight family members and associates who, if I were to go broke, would have to radically diminish and change their lifestyles. Their housing support and their everyday income comes significantly from my earnings. It’s like running a small business. So, when I see people on social media be like, “wHy DoN’t YoU gO aLl iN?” I’m thinking like, “Bitch, I’ve gone about as all-in on this new distributed ledger as I can while still sustaining a reasonable level of lower volatility equity and other assets for tangible income and fallback support for eight people”. And then I realize the anon who wrote that is probably a single dude in his parents’ basement, and my response is unwarranted. Don’t let anons on social media affect you.
For example, our extended family ran into a liquidity issue and had to change households this year, and we got a good real estate deal but it was based on me having six figures in liquidity to just throw around at short notice, which meant having maintained adequate diversification for that possibility, which I was anticipating.
In my model portfolios, I began to recommend a 5% bitcoin allocation in early 2020, and then I took some chips off the table in 2021 near the highs after a 3x and 5x gain as Musk was pumping Dogecoin, to rebalance back down to that 5% target. Why? Because not everybody has put a thousand hours of research into it and can realistically put a quarter of their liquid net worth into it. My point was, “your portfolio has zero bitcoin, you should probably have at least 5% bitcoin, and better yet, you should buy bitcoin non-custodially at whatever size is appropriate for you. As it soars, rebalance. As it falls, buy back in.” That rebalancing worked well for my public portfolio. I warned of exuberance, leaned into fear, despite not trying to predict any short-term price action.
And during 2022, amid the bear market, I joined the formation of Ego Death Capital, a bitcoin-only VC firm, as a founding advisor. And more recently, I’m leaning more into that role, and some announcements regarding that are incoming in terms of my deeper involvement. In other words, while bitcoin price action was in a period of weakness, I was happily ready to lean in to it with my capital, my time, and my reputation, to fund bitcoin companies that were developing cool stuff. https://egodeath.capital/portfolio
And then there was my husband’s wisdom. He edits all of my research reports, among other work that he does. And he has better wisdom than me overall. One day in early 2023 amid the bear market out of the blue after hardly ever talking about bitcoin he was like, “How many bitcoins do we have?” I said the number X but also explained that I am buying more lately. He said, “Alright, good, let’s get to Y soon. I know you are super cautious, and I love that, but don’t mess around on this. Buy more. Push harder. I know you have extra pockets of liquidity above the baseline. Use them.” By Y, I mean he gave me an aggressive number that was a bit above what I would have otherwise done in that timeframe.
I was like, “Okay I’ll try. But I mean, we need certain liquidity.” And he said, “I’ve edited your research reports for years. I’ve never seen you more convicted on something. Don’t fuck around on this. Lean into it. We will figure out liquidity if need be. You said to trust you in early 2020 when you initially bought it. Trust me here in 2023 when I say to buy extra vs whatever you’re buying. I can read you better than you can read yourself, and the answer is to buy. You’re being too conservative.” I followed his advice, at like sub-$20k and sub-$25k.
And then later this year, within the past few months, we indeed balanced it very tightly; I had bought as many bitcoin for us as we could early in the year and I barely hit the target he set since I was being cautious, and then we ran into a surprise liquidity requirement (changing households in Egypt) and needed to throw capital at a new place as a down payment for our family for seven people, and I was like, “This is why I maintained so much liquidity, btw. We have it because I saw this type of thing coming!” And he was like, “But we have it, right?” I and I was like, “Yes, barely at such short notice!” And he was like, “So we have the exact amount then, fucking nailed it!” The yin-and-yang worked well.
The point is, I’m as all-in on bitcoin as I get with any asset. Which means to say, I am ready to survive its failure or repression in long bear markets without selling any, but I am also highly engaged and invested in its success. I never go all-in on anything, but I’ve never leaned into any asset as thoroughly as I have done on bitcoin since April 2020. It’s the maximum I lean into any asset while still maintaining financial prudence. When it falls 80%, it doesn’t affect my lifestyle or force me to sell. When it soars, I am cautious, and focus on how to best improve the success of the network.
Good evening. Let's accelerate.
nostr:note16tqtygla2336flfc09wnpf9aa4nu0a5rmv4x5yl68lz80a9ryqtsuej62q Here I am again, re-posting Lyn. But damn her content is just so fucking good. My approach as well, unintentionally, has seemed to be similar to Lyn's over the past 3 years. Maybe I'm doing something right...
Come on, we get to here Powell drop an F bomb at climate change protesters today, it doesn’t get much better. Forget the bitcoin pump
Love it.
“Be all of one mind, compassionate, loving toward one another, merciful, and humble”
GM, grateful for today