Bitcoin went higher than I expected, breaking a 9/10 rule, but the Dow also did the same so figures.
Next couple of days will confirm if my "thesis" was accurate or not that Bitcoin has another leg down first. It'll all depend on where it has its temporary top. Doji daily candle hinting it might be now. Watching and waiting.
All markets will end next week down... probably even into Monday before the bounce. How's that for an Easter message 🐣
I took a look around the interwebs and am I right that I'm the only citizen of Earth who thinks Bitcoin is headed down from here before it's next leg up???
Everyone seems to be declaring we go up from here. I guess it's possible to get up nearer $88k over the Easter break on low volume and an absence of market makers, but even then I don't see how $88k can break, unless the laws of physics have changed in our universe.
Too many people drinking hopium and not using their brain.
Let's see if this comment bites me 😬🫠♾️
I find it best to ignore politics. It's a needless distraction. A game of idiots. Charts and cycles reveal what's going to happen. Politicians and media: all words are smoke, mirrors and publicity aimed at manipulating the uninformed to sell something. Don't listen to them and DYOR.
(Same applies to listening to what I'm saying--no joke--lol)
Best "guess" from charts:
• We drop from here for 10 days to a new low in the $70,000s
• Then we bounce around for 20 days and then...
• Spike down for an even lower low to flush out the longs...
• And THEN we finally start climbing in earnest to an October peak.
BUT it could/probably not be until JULY until we really start 🚀
Not much else to add now until after Easter... other than I still expect $88k to hold I guess. (Charts in previous notes)
#Bitcoin #BTC #trading #nostrtraders #nostrt
Clear picture reminder of why I believe $88,000 will not be breached.
Next support is down at $71,300. I expect this holds, but...
There is a lower but reasonable chance of risk that we spike down to the lower $60,000s for a very brief moment.
I'm looking to buy in the low $70,000s. But I'm also setting orders to buy even more if it does spike crazily low into the low $60,000s. All it takes is one crazy Trump announcement or China stating they'll no longer be buying US Bonds etc.
#Bitcoin Forever... until at least 2140... if I live that long.
Bit by bit Trump is backing down on tariffs. Now he's backed down on electronics from China (MAJOR). It was always a "shoot yourself in the face and foot at the same time" kind of move. So what's the next tariff backdown?
We might eventually end up with only 125% tariffs on China for the importation of peach pips.
China not buying US Treasuries last week kicked Trump in the ballsack to show him how to really play bully boy. Kick 'em where it hurts. Expect a major spin from Trump this week, followed by more backing down in the following months.
SPX will be happy. Thus so will Bitcoin.
I still don't expect Bitcoin to break $88k this month (longer time-frames). Next month looks better on the charts with run to $92k.
GN.
Following on from this question, my charts/calculations (subjective of course) show that Bitcoin has a further 13% further to fall against Gold before this reverses.
I've long said that Bitcoin will hit low $70ks in coming weeks (lower than it has) before that's the bottom before we range before peaking in October around $144-148k.
The low-$70k region, if Gold stays at current levels, is, coincidentally 13% lower also.
That 13% is a differential though, so dependent on Gold's price.
And for the longshot 3-pointer, I think Bitcoin could next year spike down momentarily next year to $37k. Market odds are heavily against this. I admit it's less likely. But if it does that's my level to back up the truck and sell my wife.
SPX will be toast, and literally EVERYONE is talking about capital rotation into gold. Interestingly, look at your chart's RSI at SPX's last highs. Hardly at the same levels to previous crashes. Similar with MACD.
If you check resistance levels all the way back from 1929 we're approaching some seriously bouncy ground. SPX does have further to fall though, and HAS to fundamentally also with this 90-day tariff malarkey.
But you're a macro guy. Throw in the long-term credit cycle, plus how history shows we have a blow-off top before we go pop, and we look like we'll have a fake recovery starting in July followed by a blow-off top which takes us into that April-June 2026 area before that train wreck where we collapse. Plus, knowing "pump and dump" Trump and his attachment to ego, you think he's not going to ensure SPX booms to reflect on him? That'll be the nail in the coffin.
Gold will uber-perform then. I think the more interesting question is Bitcoin versus Gold's performance come then. Bitcoin has shown some recent signs of decoupling, but when enough shit hits the fan will it stick more to Gold or Bitcoin?
Certain colluding miners + Saylor + CoinBase + BlackRock: What will they do come D-day? Us diamond hands are minnows.
One word: YIELDS ‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️ 🆙‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️
And more ugly Treasury auctions this week. China confirmed by reply today in saying, "FU then, we're not going to buy your debt anymore." They've put the squeeze on Trump and I can't see a way out for him unless he backs down further on tariffs.
Japan sure as heck isn't going to be happy buying it all.
Ego is Trump's flaw. The only way out for Trump to save face is to print money to buy those Treasuries. Bitcoin will blossom. So will inflation until we burst and collapse.
Forcing the Fed to cut will only accelerate inflation and exacerbate the problem. There is no way out of this for America. There is not one logical argument which makes any reasonable sense for a way to win this.
I expect Gold, Bitcoin, and certain shitcoins are about to start the boom next month.
Up early. GM. Couldn't sleep. Let's rant:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Biggest buyers of U.S. goods in order:
Canada
Mexico
China
Japan
United Kingdom
Countries purchasing the most U.S. debt in the form of U.S Treasuries:
Japan US $ 1 Trillion
China US $ 800 Billion
Therefore, which 2 countries does the U.S. rely on the most?
What happened on Tuesday was they refused to buy more Treasuries/debt. The market flipped at this dire situation. The biggest bank CEOs all spoke out saying we'd go belly up. Even DOGE Lord Elon Musk pleaded with Trump to end tariffs.
Trump spoke with Japan and got them to buy the next day's Treasuries. They did. If they didn't, the USA money printing machine would have go to brrrrr to buy them instead. Japan honored. Trump backed down on tariffs.
But we still have a trade war, particularly with China. Americans will tighten their wallets in this uncertainty--no matter what. The damage is done. And everything is made in China, which just got a whole load more expensive. (They estimated that building the new iPhone in America would push it's price up to $3,500 to paint a picture).
Back to Treasuries. Now what if China slows down buying US debt? Forget about the craziness if China decided to dump some of that debt--BAM!--the USA would collapse (because no one can print money that fast, lol!) and take the world down with it.
Basically, money printing is here to stay. America's cycle is ending as the global powerhouse. These are the last dying cries of going down with a fight. Stagflation next, briefly, and inflation will give us the blow off top we have before everything crashes in a heap, I expect, next year, second quarter 2026.
This has little to do with politics, and more with market cycles. What's happening was inevitable. It's just that Trump has exacerbated this cycle end to make it more dramatic. Ironically, the only person who will do well out of all this, when we're standing amongst the rubble, is Trump. He'll be rich, and in a special oligarchy clubhouse along with Putin and Xi.
To put a downer on it all, if you get really bored, read up on what happened in the lead up to World War 2, and look for the commonalities with today. I had to stop reading.
What's the paradigm that rescues the world and makes most of the above obsolete? Yeah, #Bitcoin
But it's going to take time. We'll get there, but there's going to be some teething troubles.
And hopefully I'll be living in a remote paradise by then, away from the madness and spending my sats in retirement.
The Bond market forced Trump to act. Yields in the past 3 days were doing the opposite of what he wanted. Japan and China (largest buyers of Treasuries) stopped buying Treasuries earlier in the week and yields spiked. If China decided to dump Treasuries on the market then the USA would've been vulnerable to collapse.
BUT if the USA collapses then China loses. They're currently playing chicken with each other.
It is NO coincidence the last Treasury auction sold well AFTER discussions with Japan. Most likely Trump got Japan to take up orders as part of the tariff negotiations.
Bottom line? Band-Aid solution. And China has so far won this one, no matter how the US government is trying to spin their 90-day offer.
This isn't over and has a long way to run.
For Bitcoiners, this chaos is wonderful as BTC, more and more, is starting to act like a real safe haven. Not as solid as gold (in the market's eyes) but getting there.
2027 is going to be a GREAT year for Bitcoin. Remind me.
Q: How healthy does this look?
A: VERY.
Everyone is excited, but all I'm seeing is an inverted chart bang on schedule.
So what does this mean? It means price will rise for another 5 days but it won't break above $88k. (How's the for a crazy call?)
And then price will fall until around week starting12th May.
Everyone is saying to the moon, so you'll soon find out exactly how full of BS I am 🔥
#Bitcoin 🌝
If Bitcoin's price hits resistance at $77,800 in the upcoming hours, which it should do, then this should be the time we see lower $70k levels tested after.
This area is a buy. Then it's a "watch and evaluate" to see if this is the bottom bottom or if that door is opened enough to run a risk to $60k. Again, unlikely.
Bitcoin daily.The longer we take to fall, the greater our chances of $60k becoming a reality.
I feel confident we're not going to bottom until another 5 weeks. My favored scenario was low-$70k level now, then bouncing around until May before we head up again.
But now, that door to $60k will creak open more and more with each passing day.
I'm on the record (on X) that we hit $144k on October followed by a brief period next year where we hit $37k momentarily. The big move will, and money to be made, will be from mid-next year onwards. We'll still do well this year in the run up to October but I feel people are getting carried away with emotional desires rather than just reading the evidence printed on a chart.
SPX: I'm not in stocks anymore, but 4,273 is the level you'd expect a drop to... in time. For now we should bounce a lot today, but "dead cats bouncing"... 🐈⬛
This really has the potential to go sub-4000 eventually. Not pretty.
My charts predicted it would happen last Friday. But here we are on the next trading day. So shoot me! Not far to go now!
nostr:note1y4u9lck4aqad6wfzfesvanwsccuwj6pr5masdx5lalsxj96jgyrs9yv9nm
The Bolt12 website gets 10/10 for fun design!! Exciting times ahead in this space! 
Thanks nostr:npub1jg552aulj07skd6e7y2hu0vl5g8nl5jvfw8jhn6jpjk0vjd0waksvl6n8n for sharing this 👍🏻
US futures markets down 5%. Looks ugly, but that tells me, combined with Bitcoin levels, that the higher probability is that the markets will find a bottom here and then bounce.
But that bounce is highly unlikely to signify the real bottom. Weeks of pain and uncertainty ahead. I'm glad I do not own single stock.
Bitcoin extension from high matches to confirm correlation that this is mostly likely the bottom area to scale in.
Still targeting $144k in October ... despite some ridiculous hopium I've seen broadcast. (Not expecting $300k and upwards hopium levels until 2027, despite the halving cycles)