I did this from a coffee shop with a borrowed pen on a paper place-mat on the way back from getting our impossible-to-copy ancient house keys copied. Some of my lines/guesses were way off from the real ones.
It’s not just that I was way off, it’s that I was way off almost uniformly in the same direction — so many of my lines (and guesses) were way too high. Normally, I feel like I have the opposite problem Week 1 as I overestimate the uncertainly after a long offseason, and the market prices teams more or less like the prior year. But here we are in 2023, and it’s like the market got woke to the idea of “Who the hell knows, we haven’t seen a game in seven months!”
When you’re this far off, you should question your leans more. Not that the market is the be-all, end-all like some seem to believe, but you shouldn’t be so far afoul of it across the board.
Accordingly, I might not only ignore my lines here, but actively go the other way in some cases, say taking the Steelers getting only 2.5 at home against the Niners which seems crazy, but now somehow feels right. The Rams getting only 5.5 without Cooper Kupp is another I might use.
I will stick with my Browns lean as my guessed line was dead on there. And the Giants should be a pick ‘em at home against the Cowboys. The Giants moneyline looks good to me, in fact.
In any event, it’s only Monday morning, so I have time to think these over before I commit.
Stacked the Cowboys passing game for my NFFC Primetime. They get Miami in Week 16, hosting the Lions Week 17. Week 15 is at Buffalo, which isn't ideal conditions-wise, but game total could be high nonetheless. With people bending over backwards to stack Mahomes/Kelce or Hurts/AJB, it feels good to ease into a cheap stack that has roughly the same chance of hitting.
Lamar Jackson was getting pushed to the third round earlier in draft season but has slipped a bit into the fourth. There's optimism for him as a passer under new OC Todd Monken and all his new weapons (a healthy Bateman), Beckham and Zay Flowers, but he needs to run to retain his value.
Moreover, if the team goes away from the ground and pound with Edwards and Dobbins under Monken and puts it in Lamar's hands 600+ times, does Lamar survive the season? At only 215 pounds, Jackson takes some big hits, and his style of play is a young man's game -- usually isn't sustainable for more than a few years.
I'm still surprised Burrow, Higgins and Chase didn't get discounted at all due to Burrow's calf injury. Maybe he's ready for Week 1, but Cooper Kupp just had a setback with a muscle strain, and Burrow isn't out of the woods for Week 1 just yet. I can understand not getting a steep discount, but no discount at all?
Ah, the September war of attrition in fantasy baseball -- it's why I outsourced my teams this year to focus on football. Who needs the headache?
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10 Bold Predictions for 2023
I do this every year, and every year I get at least one correct. Last year, I didn’t do that badly, even if some of them turned out to be laughable. If they aren’t laughable you weren’t bold enough.
Daniel Jones (QB11) finishes as a top-seven NFFC fantasy QB
This might not sound bold, but it is. Jones’ overall ADP is 122, while QB7 (Trevor Lawrence) is 52, i.e, that is a big leap value-wise. Jones will get you 500 yards on the ground and a few rushing TDs, but in Year 2 of Brian Daboll’s system and with upgrades in Darren Waller, Parris Campbell and Jalin Hyatt, I’d expect in the neighborhood of 25 passing TDs and 4,000 yards too.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB12) finishes as a top-five RB
I actually like that the Patriots brought in washed-up Zeke Elliott rather than a pass-catching back like Kareem Hunt or a three-down option like Dalvin Cook. At worst Zeke will steal some touchdowns, but at best he’ll absorb the low-upside dirty work and keep Stevenson fresh to catch 70 passes. My comp for Stevenson is Le’Veon Bell — a big, slow power back with excellent balance, instincts and receiving skills.
Chris Godwin (WR 27) outproduces Keenan Allen (WR 16)
Godwin is 27, Allen 31. Godwin is faster and quicker at roughly the same size. Allen rarely makes catches down the field or in the red zone, and he has much more competition for targets. Of course, Allen has Justin Herbert throwing him the ball, while Godwin has Baker Mayfield, but Mayfield need not be great, only adequate for Godwin to finish in the top-10. Remember two years ago when Jared Goff, another former No. 1 overall who produced for awhile, was essentially thought of the way Mayfield is now?
Darren Waller is a top-2 TE
I won’t put him ahead of nearly 34-YO Travis Kelce just yet, but I will rank him ahead of Mark Andrews and T.J. Hockenson. Waller should see 150 targets and be Daniel Jones’ primary red-zone guy too. The skills are not in doubt — he just needs to stay healthy all year, but so does everyone.
The Falcons will win the NFC South
Right now, the Saints are favored at +121, while the Falcons are +216. I like betting the run-heavy teams in a pass-happy league to outperform projections. Plus, the Falcons are young at QB, RB, WR and TE, and have a very good offensive line. They have upside.
One of the following Year 2 receivers will finish in the top-15 PPR: Skyy Moore, Treylon Burks, Jameson Williams, Alec Pierce, Jalen Tolbert, Wan’Dale Robinson, John Metchie, Romeo Doubs, Khalil Shakir, Rashid Shaheed
I make this prediction every year, and it often pans out as Year 2 is when receivers typically make the leap. I left out Jahan Dotson because he’s now got a fifth-round ADP, as well as the obvious ones: Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Drake London, Christian Watson and George Pickens. It’s a scrubbier group than usual, though.
Amon-Ra St. Brown will fail to match his six TDs from a year ago
I’ve heard talk ARSB will regress positively to the mean because he led the league in getting tackled inside the five-yard line last year, but I’ll take the opposite side of that and say he got tackled inside the five because he’s not fast enough to get behind the defense. In other words, for him to score, he’s got to break tackles, unlike Tyreek Hill or Ja’Marr Chase who can score from distance. He’s also not quite physical enough to be an dominant end-zone target like Davante Adams. (Going under six sounds bolder than it is though because the player prop is something like 5.5 on sports betting sites. And whenever you take the under, you have injuries on your side.)
The Giants will win at least one playoff game
They won one last year, so how bold can this be? Well, they’re underdogs even to make the playoffs (+200/-160), and you can cut those odds in half at least for them to win a game. The market is badly mispricing a well-coached team with an improving young defense, a vastly improved receiving corps and an underrated quarterback who was more than adequate with terrible receivers last year. I get their division is tough, but the Eagles played 21 games last year, and I believe in the Super-Bowl loser hangover effect. And the Cowboys are coached by Mike McCarthy.
Jonathan Taylor (RB 24) will finish as a top-10 PPR running back despite missing at least four games
A top-10 finish would be worth even more than that, as it’ll be condensed into 13 games. I don’t think Taylor is hurt, and I suspect he’ll play once it starts costing him money to sit out. He’s made his point, but he doesn’t have much more leverage. If a contending team does pony up a first-rounder or so to acquire him, Taylor will win a lot of leagues for people. He might even do so on the Colts.
George Kittle will lead all tight ends in TDs scored
Brock Purdy took over in Week 13, and from that point on, Kittle had seven TDs in eight games. Kittle is a Hall of Fame-level tight end, still in his prime for the position at age 29.
Some of these predictions will be wrong
No one’s perfect, but you never want to get shut out.
If you're worried about Baker Mayfield supporting Chris Godwin/Mike Evans, keep in mind Jared Goff, another former No. 1 overall QB, who produced in his first couple years, was in roughly the same boat as Mayfield two years ago. That doesn't mean Mayfield will be fine, but QBs often are a product of circumstances more than we realize.
Visiting a specialist is never a good sign
FOMO -- players I didn't get but wish I had
https://www.realmansports.com/p/nfl-fomo-players-i-wanted-that-i
My Portfolio -- all my teams in one place:
My NFFC High stakes Primetime team:
New video in advance of the NFFC high-stakes Primetime draft
https://www.realmansports.com/p/nffc-primetime-talk-with-alan-seslowsky:
What to do with Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor
Got the 12th pick in NFFC Primetime. First choice.
What to do with Jonathan Taylor
Pick the players you like -- never get talked out of your own leans.
Any of the four could easily finish as QB1, yes. Especially the two running ones (Fields/Jackson) if they don't get hurt.
Last year it was worth paying up for quarterbacks, but this year, I'm almost always willing to wait. The price of the top two tiers is higher than ever, and there are many cheap ones with upside.