The last minute of this is so good
Dead of Winter; The Thing From Another World (1951)
Really liked this post by Sam Callahan:
A recent working paper from the IMF provides a new dataset for large currency depreciations since 1971.
The authors specifically chose 1971 because "Many consider the Nixon shock on August 15, 1971, as the beginning of the end for the Bretton Woods system."
They meticulously analyzed 163 countries and territories and concluded that there have been 905 large currency depreciations since Nixon severed the monetary system from sound money.
I'd like to highlight three points from the paper here:
1.) Currency depreciation remains as prevalent as ever.
"While 1982 Chile and 1994 Mexico may feel like remote history, large depreciations continue occurring regularly: over the last decade, there have been 131 large depreciation events, with 24 countries registering two or more, according to our dataset."
2.) No matter how seemingly strong or stable, no fiat currency is immune to large depreciations.
"Virtually no one is safe from a large depreciation. While generally associated with less advanced economies, long-industrialized and financially sophisticated economies have experienced large depreciations as well. Not even reserve currencies were spared: Switzerland had two in rapid succession (1988 and 1991), Japan had three (1982, 2012, 2022), and the United Kingdom had four, all in different decades (1976 sterling crisis, the 1992 ERM crisis, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2016 Brexit)."
3.) Few economic events are as disruptive as large currency depreciations.
"Virtually overnight, it can decimate the value of large swaths of real and financial assets, trigger insolvencies—including by banks and the sovereign—and shred the credibility of the central bank. The ensuing economic turmoil can push an entire decile of the population below the poverty line, spark civil unrest and precipitate a government change."
This dataset effectively serves as the track record of fiat currencies since 1971, and it’s one of instability, crises, and wealth destruction.
One line in particular from the report stood out to me: "Virtually no one is safe from a large depreciation."
I think it’s more accurate to say, "Virtually no fiat holder is safe from a large depreciation." For there is no safety in holding money that isn’t anchored to anything scarce and can be created at zero cost with the click of a button.
The point is, people can protect themselves from currency depreciations today.
They don’t have to sit in fiat and hope their central bank behaves. They can study this history and choose to hold hard, scarce assets that don’t depend on any issuer’s credibility to maintain their value.
People seem to forget that this free-floating fiat system we have today is one giant monetary experiment. It didn't exist before 1971, and after 54 years and more than 900 large currency depreciations, the data speaks for itself.
The Bitcoin experiment didn’t exist before 2009, but after nearly 17 years—about 30% of the fiat experiment—its track record is one of monetary stability and long-term wealth preservation.
TL;DR: Choose your money wisely.
Full paper: https://www.imf.org/en/-/media/files/publications/wp/2025/english/wpiea2025221-source-pdf.pdf
Bitcoin will continue to grow more scarce and more useful.
💵 Fiat money will continue to be printed.
🏦 The governments and institutions that manage the money will continue to loose credibility.
What makes you think that bitcoin will continue to succeed?
Innovation to money akin to what the internet was for information.
Why bitcoin?
It’s an incredibly effective way to build a meaningful amount of savings.
Nostr was mentioned on my favorite cryptography podcast today, Security, Cryptography, Whatever — they didn't spend a lot of time on it, but here are some highlights:
> It’s federated and it’s European. I bet it sucks.
> It’s some Ayahuasca inspired initiative from. From Messrs. Dorsey et al.
> Yeah, sure, it’s decentralized and federated, but like their proposal for encrypted end to end encrypted DMs was just bad by itself.
> When I reviewed this, my description of this was it looks almost exactly like Nebuchadnezzar [https://nebuchadnezzar-megolm.github.io/], which is like a fractal of things that could have gone wrong with like a complete ecosystem of like a secure messaging system. They found flaws in almost every component of that system and then tried to leverage them as far as they could.
You can read/listen here: https://securitycryptographywhatever.com/2025/07/29/vegas-baby/
They also mentioned a talk that's going to be delivered at blackhat on August 9th which sounds super interesting:
> In this session, we unveil the first comprehensive security study of Nostr and its popular client applications, demonstrating how subtle flaws in cryptographic design, event verification, and link previews allow an attacker to forge "encrypted" direct messages (DMs), impersonate user profiles, and even leak the confidential message from "encrypted" DMs.
Here's the link to the agenda entry for the talk: https://www.blackhat.com/us-25/briefings/schedule/#not-sealed-practical-attacks-on-nostr-a-decentralized-censorship-resistant-protocol-45726
I'm looking forward to learning how we've screwed up — there aren't a lot of cryptographers here, and I know that open protocols make security even harder to maintain. Maybe we've screwed up irretrievably, but I'd rather know now than later.
Appreciate the open and learning mindset
nostr:npub17usj0jh86ged3pt34r5j6ejzfar9s2q5dl3l84tq8ymhfj2wz08sxmkf8w generate this video: A single green sprout emerges from the soil in the center of the frame, bathed in soft sunlight. Time-lapse effect begins as the sprout rapidly grows into a small sapling, then pauses. From its base and surroundings, identical sprouts begin to emerge and grow, multiplying outward in a radial pattern. The camera pulls back to reveal a lush grove forming from this one original sprout. The light shifts to golden hour, casting long shadows and a sense of harmony. Soft ambient music underscores the peaceful, natural growth.
Been thinking about the gold price in Weimar Germany chart a lot lately. Whipsaw markets lately.
My auto-buy hit the dip quite nicely this month.
Who should we zap for this one?
Pigs are smart right? Kinda makes sense from that perspective
>>> nostr:nprofile1qqs9df4h2deu3aae83fmet5xmrlm4w5l9gdnsy3q2n7dklem7ezmwfcpzdmhxue69uhhwmm59e6hg7r09ehkuef04n302t <<< for the win...🙏🏻🤔😁
And buy it from them, if you can.💖
I had a couple of early problems
problems when I first installed the fully loaded Start One unit I bought (with bitcoin!) in Nashville last year...
Start9 support was great, and it turned out that it was a local hardware problem OUTSIDE the unit (a flaky Ethernet cable)...
My Start One has been running like a champ since then. 🙏🏻🫂💖👍😁
#Start9
What should I look for when buying an Ethernet cable to avoid a similar issue?
Increasing self reliance seems like the way to go. The less dependence the better.
I’ve heard about Wiz from mempool.space talk about running his own ISP. Maybe that becomes more common.
If you do have internet:
Increase the number of places that accept bitcoin in your area.
In the future, do you think that services like Bitrefill will still exist?