jinxed that by my last post
Dolphins doing a nice job of taking time off the clock
Rashee Rice is the only receiver on the Chiefs
Rich Eisen hallucinated a fumble just now
Last week I went only 2-3 on the Ugly picks, but 4-0-1 on the Normal ones, and to my great surprise, the Normal picks (15-4-1) tied for a piece of the second quarter prize in the faux super contest, and $440 showed up in my account today. (I have two thus-far identical “Normal” entries, so $220 for each.)
Not bad for three entries of $20.
It’s not exactly winning the Super Contest, but after a rough start, I’ll take it.
Okay let’s take a look at Week 9:
When I wrote Guessing The Lines Monday night, I wondered why I was so far off on the Dolphins-Chiefs, and of course, I hadn’t realized that game was in Frankfurt, not Kansas City. (The only time I’ve been to Frankfurt, it was in the airport on a layover, and Sasha and I ate frankfurters we got at a kiosk there. When in Frankfurt...)
In any event, I still like the Chiefs for the reasons I gave in Guessing The Lines. The Dolphins are fun but soft, and both losses came against good teams (Eagles and Bills.) The Chiefs are a buy-low after a poor showing against the Broncos too.
The Saints are a good team with playmakers on both sides of the ball. The Bears just dealt for Montez Sweat for God knows what reason, but they’re a bad team likely starting their backup QB for another week. This is a relatively modest line for a home game.
The Colts are a league-average team and a good buy-low after two straight losses. The Panthers are a sell-high after an upset win too.
Dak Prescott’s looked good the last couple weeks, but like the Dolphins the Cowboys tend to wilt against good teams. The Eagles have the better coach and the deeper set of skill players.
The Bengals and Bills are roughly equal on offense, but Cincy has the better defense and is playing at home, while laying less than three.
I doubled up on the Colts because it’s the easiest call for me. The Panthers got the monkey off their back, and the Colts have the doormat they need to right the ship.
The Vikings are especially ugly after losing Kirk Cousins for the year, and more so after it looks like newly acquired Joshua Dobbs might not play much.
The Seahawks and Ravens are both sell-highs, but give me the six-point underdog in this scenario to hang around.
The Bucs would really be the “ugly” pick here, but I like buying low on the Texans after they just lost to the Panthers.
I was initially on the Patriots, but I had to take the team that just traded away two of its key defensive players for draft picks. I don’t like that they’re coming off a tough loss though.
I really wanted to pick someone in the Giants-Raiders or Jets-Chargers, but realized I wanted to fade all of four of them.
Surviving Week 9
Everyone got through last week, and only the Eagles had any kind of a sweat, so there’s not much to say about that. I wanted to take the Lions, but only realized later I had used them in Week 5 and pivoted to the Chargers in my home pool and the Dolphins in the offshore sports book one.
Let’s take a look at Week 9:
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This is a tough week, with the top teams being the PJ Walker Browns and the Saints. I’d feel better about the Browns if Clayton Tune were starting for the Cardinals, but if it’s Kyler Murray, I’d probably stay away at 49 percent.
My initial lean is the Saints — they’re good on both sides of the ball, and they draw a Bears team that’s playing with its backup QB. But the Bears just traded for Montez Sweat, for God knows what reason, which means they’re still motivated to win now. It’s not that Sweat himself (though he’s a good player) will be such a difference maker, but the message it sends. It’s probably not enough to sway me, though, so I’m probably on the Saints, unless Tune were starting for Arizona, and even then it’s close.
I’d also consider the Falcons for the pot-odds fade, but I’m a little nervous Joshua Dobbs suits up and gives the Vikings a fighting chance. There’s better than a 50 percent chance either the Saints or Browns lose, so if you got through with the Falcons, you’d be assured of a big chunk of your pool going down.
The Ravens (who most have used) also make a little sense. The Seahawks can keep up though if it turns into a game where the last team to score wins.
Bottom line, my lean is Saints, but if Tune is starting, it’s a closer call. I’m also tempted to take the Falcons, but as of right now, I’m staying away after the Vikings got Dobbs.
GUESSING THE LINES
As I mentioned I’m on vacation this week, so I’m posting this Monday night rather than Tuesday. Guessing The Lines is more for me to get a feel for the week rather than to solidify any final picks anyway.
Last week, I went 2-3 in the Ugly, but 3-0-1 in the Normal, pending my Lions bet tonight. The former is now 22-17-1, and the latter 21-17-1.
Let’s take a look at Week 9:
*pending the Monday night game.
At first glance, I’m far off on the Dolphins-Chiefs. Bears-Saints and Cowboys-Eagles. I don’t know why the Chiefs laid such an egg last week, but I love fading the Dolphins against top teams.
If the Bears were getting 8.5 against the Chargers and didn’t cover, why wouldn’t they get the same against the Saints on the road?
And I find it odd the Cowboys are considered roughly equal with the Eagles, who have been far more consistent this year.
My initial leans are Chiefs, Saints, Eagles, Texans, Colts and Bengals. (That’s a lot, I realize, but I’ll probably whittle it down as the week goes on.)
Week 8 Observations
I’m on vacation, writing this from a hotel in Spain. For God knows what reason, Heather arranged a 30-mile bike ride with some friends in the morning, and the place where we’re starting the ride is an hour drive away. So I have to write this now or never, before the second wave of games is even over.
The Giants season was already over, but I hate the Jets, and I really wanted the Giants to win that game. Brian Daboll blew it, though it wasn’t his fault Graham Gano shanked a 35-yard field goal, even though I would have gone for it on 4th-and-1 instead. (That was a 50/50 call.)
The really bad decision was winning the coin toss and choosing to receive in overtime. What the fuck was he thinking? His third-string QB, Danny Devito, wasn’t capable of a forward pass, and you want to receive the ball, the only upside of which is being able to win with a TD after a long drive you have to mount solely on the ground while the Jets know you’re running every play? Why not elect to kick off, play defense where you have the advantage, receive a punt and play for a game-winning field-goal? Just senseless to receive in that situation.
I nearly threw my laptop against the wall after the Adoree’ Jackson PI set up the game-winning FG for the Jets.
Kayvon Thibodeaux looked like Lawrence Taylor out there. It was the one silver lining of the game.
Darren Waller inconsiderately aggravated his hamstring injury early in the game, sidling me with a zero in three leagues. Draft players with the decency to get injured in the fourth quarter. To Waller’s credit he still led the Giants in receiving with four yards.
Gano missed another FG, a 47-yarder on 4th-and-1, attempted before Tyrod Taylor got hurt. You don’t try a 47-yarder on 4th-and-1.
Garrett Wilson is a top-five real-life NFL receiver. He’s right there with Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown and Ja’Marr Chase. He just needs a quarterback.
Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are showing up big time for me after my Primetime team is probably drawing dead. I’ve made the right call the last few weeks after the debacle where I subbed out Brock Purdy for Dak at the last second. Now I don’t look at any rankings and just go by my own instincts. Too little, too late, though.
I’ve complained about my Travis Etienne for Amari Cooper and (TE) Taysom Hill trade in the RotoWire keeper league, but (a) Hill has been very good lately; and (b) my team sucks, so I moved Cooper, Terry McLaurin, Joe Mixon and Kirk Cousins (who got hurt today) for Jonathan Taylor and three scrubs. I probably lost that trade too, but my team isn’t in it this year, and no one except Jake Letarski (the guy who made the deal with me) was offering me anyone good for my aging stars. You have people offering you scrubs and draft picks, thinking you’re just going to hand them four starters in a 14-team league, so I was happy to get one serious building block for them. Taylor is all the way back now too.
I’ve been good against the spread of late — so-so, so far this week — because I’ve been able to feel the inflection points of teams. I had the Pats +9.5 initially but switched them out for the Panthers +3 at the last minute. I had liked the Texans initially, but felt they might overlook the winless Panthers, and the Panthers would be able to hang with an upstart. Forget about the net-adusted-YPP nonsense — so few people have an edge there — and focus on the ebbs and flows, the pulse. It’s possible to get a read on it.
The Football Team had the cover in good order, blew it, then heroically rallied for the push.
If the injuries to Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford and even Kenny Pickett are serious, that’s a lot of top receivers left without their quarterbacks.
AJ Brown got his sixth-straight 125-yard game, the first time that’s ever happened. He’s a monster and made an amazing one-handed TD grab in the game too. But picking 125-yards as the benchmark is pretty arbitrary. Who has the record for most consecutive 75-yard games? What about 78?
The Saints have a lot of weapons on offense, but they spread it around, and they do so even at QB with Hill coming in so much near the goal line.
As usual, the long-distance kicking this week was bananas. Joey Slye kicked a 56-yard FG at the end of the first half, but it was called back on a false-start penalty, so he drilled a 61-yarder instead. Cowboys rookie kicker Brandon Aubrey kicked a 58-yarder and Harrison Butker hit one from 56. I’m the sucker who drafted the original Justin Tucker, but now it’s everyone in the league, except him (and the Giants’ Gano.)
I have the Chargers in Survivor tonight in my home pool (wanted the Lions, but didn’t realize I had already used them), so wish me luck. With the Chargers, you always need — and rarely get — it.
seriously, if your team cannot complete a forward pass, and the other team has a terrible offense, why would you choose to receive?
what a waste of time. Giants need a defensive score to win.
Seriously, why the fuck did Daboll take the ball?
WTF is Daboll taking the ball?
rare OT where if I won the toss I'd elect to receive
I don't have the stomach to watch OT for this game. I'm wasting my vacation in a hotel room. Just stupid.
Truly a retard to attempt the FG there.
WTF is Daboll doing going for the FG. First down wins the game!
Kayvon "Lawrence" Thibodeaux
Breece Hall and Garrett wilson are so good. Criminal they're affiliated with this offense
great call by Kafka -- Danny Devito with the TD
unbelievable amount of long FG these days