too late for that
The issue with fantasy football/sports betting/survivor is whether to cultivate equanimity like a pro, or live and die in fits of hope, jubilation, rage and despair. I usually opt for the latter for entertainment purposes, but it takes a toll.
I hear you — good points. Problem is Mahomes doesn’t check down to the back the way most QBs do — he’ll check down to Kielce or a WR. And Pacheco rarely gets the heavy workload of say a Derrick Henry or Josh Jacobs.
I almost put him in Tier 3 though.
These are my very preliminary RB rankings, my only research being the [RotoWire depth charts](https://www.rotowire.com/football/nfl-depth-charts/) and player notes.
**Tier 1
Christian McCaffrey**
He’s 28 years old, has 1,402 career carries including the postseason and weighs only 205 pounds at 5-11. But McCaffrey is arguably the greatest running back all time, when you include the pass catching, and he’s in the league’s best system for backs. Health is really the only variable, and anyone can get hurt.
**Tier 2
Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor**
These are the three-down backs with elite skill sets. Hall should be better another year removed from the ACL tear and playing with a better QB, Robinson should get the heavy usage he merits with Arthur Smith gone, Barkley finally gets a quality offensive line and QB and Taylor plays next to a running QB and has little competition for carries.
**Tier 3
Jahmyr Gibbs, De’Von Achane, Kyren Williams, Travis Etienne**
These are the little guys, all of whom can run and catch passes, plus Etienne. Williams is the biggest risk as an early-down high-workload guy, but he was also insanely productive when he played in Sean McVay’s lead-back-friendly system. Gibbs seems like peak Alvin Kamara, only faster and Achane in the Miami offense was the most efficient back in league history by a mile. I originally had Etienne in Tier 4, but he doesn’t have much competition for the job and should be a three-down back.
**Tier 4
Isaiah Pacheco, Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, James Cook, David Montgomery, Derrick Henry, Kenneth Walker, Racchad White, James Conner, Rhamondre Stevenson, Zack Moss, Javonte Williams, Devin Singletary **
This is a big tier, but these are all the incomplete players guaranteed reps if healthy. Pacheco could be moved to Tier 3, but Patrick Mahomes doesn’t check down to the back all that often, and Pacheco rarely gets to 20 carries in a game. Jacobs is a beast but has a ton of mileage in a short span and fell off last year. Mixon is another old warhorse with a lot of mileage, albeit also in a good situation. Cook suffers due to Josh Allen’s goal-line prowess and tendency to take off rather than check down. Montomgery will cede the third-down work, Henry is old and doesn’t catch many passes, Walker splits carries, gets hurt often, White is a ham and egger who happened to see a huge workload, Conner is 29 and always misses time, Stevenson is a workhorse on a bad team, Moss is an average back in a good spot, Williams is another year off the injury, but on a bad team and Singletary is the clear lead back on a poor offense.
**Tier 5
Tony Pollard, D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Brooks, Alvin Kamara, Brian Robinson, Jaylen Warren, Austin Ekeler, Chuba Hubbard, Zamir White, Raheem Mostert, Aaron Jones, Najee Harris, Nick Chubb, Tyjae Spears, Trey Benson, Zach Charbonnet
**
These are mostly timeshare backs, with the exception of Kamara whose efficiency fell through the floor and White who I’m not convinced will lock down the job all year.
**Tier 6
Kenneth Gainwell, Rico Dowdle, Gus Edwards, Jerome Ford, Zeke Elliott, Roschon Johnson, Jaylen Wright, Bucky Irving, JK Dobbins, Antonio Gibson, Chase Brown, Elijah Mitchell, Jaleel McLaughlin, Tyler Algeier, MarShawn Lloyd**
This is the backup tier, all of whom probably need an injury ahead of them to break out.
These rankings will change, but I like to get my preliminary ones down on paper before I get influenced by ADP and training camp hype.
Don't know how to edit on nostr:npub1yzvxlwp7wawed5vgefwfmugvumtp8c8t0etk3g8sky4n0ndvyxesnxrf8q but neglected to put in Blake Corum, right behind Nick Chubb in Tier 5.
Signed up for the Circa Survivor contest and the Circa Millions (ATS picking) in Vegas last week. Think first prize in the former is $10M, the latter $4M.
LFG.
Would like to see Burrow stay heathy for a full year. And I have Jackson in Tier 2!
QUARTERBACK RANKINGS
(for fantasy football)
These are my very preliminary QB rankings, my only research being the RotoWire depth charts and player notes.
Tier 1
Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts
I don’t know who Allen will throw to other than Dalton Kincaid, but he needs only 25-ish TD passes to be the QB1 if he stays healthy, given all the rushing numbers. Hurts is second only because he’s not as good in real life, and there’s some small risk of implosion, skills-wise. But 10-plus TDs on the ground creates its own tier.
Tier 2
Patrick Mahomes, Anthony Richardson, Lamar Jackson
What’s odd about this tier is how different these players are. Mahomes, despite a poor 2023 regular season, gets in because he’s the GOAT, and Andy Reid is a arguably the greatest offensive coach of all time. Richardson could easily be the 1.1, but injury risk and lack of track record give him a much lower floor. Jackson doesn’t get the goal line looks that often, especially with Derrick Henry in tow, but obviously his running gives him a huge lift.
To read this entire article for free, click on this link.
Tier 3
CJ Stroud, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott
Stroud has a loaded receiving corps now with Stefon Diggs on the team, and he’d be my bet to lead the league in passing yards. But he doesn’t run much, and that caps his ceiling slightly. I almost put him in Tier 2 because you can make the case he’s basically Mahomes with 200 fewer rushing yards. Murray is another year off his ACL tear, runs a lot and gets Marvin Harrison. It’s still an open question whether he’s good, though. Love looks like a player, runs a little and has young, developing wideouts. Prescott is in a pass-heavy offense, has an elite WR1 and is the ultimate stat-padder which works in fantasy. (You could just push all four into Tier 2 and make it seven deep, as the cutoff is a bit arbitrary.)
Tier 4
Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence.
This is the tier of the passing-only QBs with the exception of Herbert who can run, but might be hamstrung by a run-heavy offense, and Lawrence, who might not be good. I would gamble on Herbert’s athleticism and skills nonetheless if he falls into this tier. And Lawrence gets a much-needed rookie deep threat which could open things up. Burrow is Tier 3 if he would stay healthy, but he obviously carries more risk on that front, and I don’t think he’ll run much now.
Tier 5
Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Caleb Williams, Sam Darnold, Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith
Watson might be cooked, but there’s still upside if he can run like he used to. Jones has a big ceiling with his mobility and Malik Nabers on the team. Stafford has two top receivers and a great offensive coach. Rodgers is old, but he has weapons now, and Williams has a loaded receiving corps. People might laugh at Darnold in this tier, but he’s mobile and has Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. If he keeps the job (a big if), he has upside, which is what you want in this tier. Mayfield and Smith are solid and boring, which is also fine if you wait forever on QB. Daniels’ mobility puts him here instead of the scrub tier.
Tier 6 (Scrubs)
Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Will Levis, Drake Maye, Raiders QBs, Bo Nix
These are the scrubs. One or two might not turn out to be scrubs, but it’s hard to get excited about any of them.
These rankings will change, but I like to get my preliminary ones down on paper before I get influenced by ADP and training camp hype.
The GOAT blew three match points to make the Wimbledon final. Still serving for the match. Definitely doesn’t want this to go any farther, needs all his energy for Alcaraz.
Team Of Destiny — odyssey to get from Palm Springs to Vegas during a heat wave to sign up for the high-stakes Survivor and Circa Millions contests.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/team-of-destiny/id1643791164?i=1000661979536
I was on the fence about going all in for NFL or just half-assing this substack and refunding everyone their money. On the one hand I will definitely have some fantasy teams and be watching on Sundays, but on the other do I want to be glued to the TV for seven hours every week and write up all the standalone games again?
I’m definitely half-assing baseball and enjoying it. That’s why I outsourced my teams the last two years, and I don’t feel I’m missing much. I guess my lack of close watching of MLB has kept me out of the MLB conversation on social media, but I feel like that ship had mostly sailed anyway when that community lost its mind in woke psychosis and pharmaceutical salesmanship zealotry. The NFL crowd is, on balance, more normal. Baseball’s conduciveness to statistical measurement is apparently to ideologically-compliant laptop-class midwits like Taylor Swift to teenage girls.
But the main reason I’ve decided to go all-in again on NFL (and hence this substack) is from a chance post I made on nostr yesterday that opened my eyes to what’s possible there. I mentioned Heather is writing a tourism/restaurant guide for Lisbon to send to the legions of friends and friends of friends who are constantly visiting, and immediately some of the protocol’s most prominent developers responded saying she should definitely post it, and there would be great interest in such a thing. (Heather has not yet agreed to do this, but I am working on her.)
And I thought, this niche social media protocol (which I firmly still believe is the future for reasons enumerated elsewhere) is the perfect place to make quality content because its readers are committed to growing the decentralized alternative to corporate social media platforms. Anyone will support (and zap, i.e., pay with bitcoin via the lightning network) quality content in which they’re interested much more than on Twitter where there is so much of it already, algorithms favoring established players and no particular loyalty or enthusiasm for the platform. It’s a small, but rapidly growing and well capitalized niche of smart and indepdent thinking people looking to promote and support freedom technology.
So I’m going to give it a serious go because the opportunity there is suddenly interesting to me, more so than simpy increasing readership/revenue of the newsletter. Don’t get me wrong, I like to make money as much as the next guy but revenue is just gross. (This joke fell flat on Twitter and nostr, but that’s no reason not to foist it on my substack readers too.)
I still won’t do waiver wire bullshit or tell you who to start and sit each week. You should just subscribe to RotoWire (in which I no longer have any financial interest) for that. I’m going to post a lot of observations, which means I actually have to observe a lot of NFL. And of course, I will post it here too (the articles at least), but for the daily posts, you’ll have to go to nostr. (I would post those here, but I don’t think you want to get 5 emails a day from my substack.)
But how does one *prove* eligibility to this league?
Would be a left tackle in the modern NFL. Looks strong af.
nostr:note1hj0w3sq6tdm7s8nns3nf7ycdh9ypprwt333smswv2de8clxjsvhq9rquyp
Daughter wanted to go to a baseball game when we were in the States this summer, so I bought tickets when we’re in Denver.
Think she just wants some Rockies gear and stadium junk food though. For her it’s gonna be like when we went to the Bob Dylan concert last year, and he only played songs neither of us had ever heard.
(The Rockies are mostly scrubs, and she doesn’t follow baseball in any event.)
They make you wait a month in between the NBA semi finals and final, and then there’s a sweep.
NBA needs to make the early rounds best of three, mid rounds best of five, finals, best of seven.
If you didn’t overtax them so much with so many games, you could have the final in May too.
I don’t want to start thinking about, let along writing about, football yet. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, and I need this absence for another month or so. At some point in July, I will get the bug as I do every year, but not yet. Once of the worst parts about the SXM show was being forced to talk NFL ahead of schedule.
But baseball has been weird this year. Scoring is way down, it feels like injuries to star players are up. No Ronald Acuna, Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole (yet). Those are only the top hitter and top two pitchers by ADP.
That said, my teams (and my managers) are holding it down, making moves. I am now achieving of one goal which is top half in every league.
It’s not that impressive, two fifths and two sixths, but it’s a stepping stone to the next goal which is all teams top-three, then all teams cashing, then all teams winning, then all teams winning or finishing top-three in the overall. Simple as ABC, always be cashing.
One thing I enjoy seeing is players who were struggling, but not total busts, start to heat up. Fernando Tatis (two leagues) is quietly up to 13 homers, seven steals, batting .280. It’s not quite what I paid for, but it’s creeping toward par. Yordan Alvarez (two leagues) has 13 homers, is batting .290, and by some miracle has even stolen three bases. I jinxed Corey Seager last week by saying he was the rare guy who hadn’t yet been injured, but he’s up to 13 homers and batting .270.
Jackson Chourio (two leagues) has been in the lineup the last three games, and is up to seven homers and seven steals. I need Trea Turner to get healthy for the Main Event team. I need other players to get and stay healthy obviously. But there is a path. Persistent, attentive management already puts you in the top third. You just need a little prescience in drafting and some injury luck.
LFG.
If you read Todd Zola’s RotoWire piece https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/article/the-z-files-will-scoring-pick-up-82987 (paywall), you’ll see a convincing case that the baseball is deader this year, not leaving the park as often, explains the low run-scoring environment.
Seems like injuries to key players are up too, but maybe that’s just my teams.
Ohtani being cleared by MLB is like covid being declared zoonotic by the NIH and CDC. No way they were going to investigate seriously the biggest international star in the history of the sport no matter how obvious it is that a bookie would never extend millions in credit to his interpreter.
I’m fine with it — I really don’t care if Ohtani gambles, but the premise they were investigating him is a joke.
Disappointing to see the GOAT Djokovic have to drop out with a knee injury. But this is how it more or less goes for everyone as they get old. I actually think to a large extent it’s not that people lose their skills so much as the amount of work it takes to stay healthy and recover from repetitive stress and injuries becomes insurmountable.
Jerry Rice played WR into his 40s only because he was such a maniac at training, but even he got got by Father Time.
Bieber was my SP2, Gallen 1, Darvish 3. High-stakes 15-team league. Just brutal.