Animal farm ?

We aint regular civilians bro weed so strong they call me a menace

FASB might be the real catalyst for the next #Bitcoin bull run.

Some serious events (FASB rule change, halving, (likely) Fed rate cuts, U.S. ETF, pro-Bitcoin leaders gaining power, sovereigns mining, grid stabilization at scale) on the horizon in the next 1-2 years.

I’m not selling. Don’t need to, won’t need to. Stay frosty #plebchain

Pure black on oled screens saves battery life (pixel isn’t turned on). Post background should be black. Separator grey.

Oh youre a good grower!

Guy’s Take #70

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“We should change Bitcoin now in a contentious way to fix the security budget” is basically the same tinkering mentality that central bankers have.

It begins with an overconfident assumption that they know fees won’t be sufficient in the future and that a certain “fix” is going to generate more fees. But some “fixes” could even backfire and create less fees, or introduce bugs, or damage the incentive structure.

The Bitcoin fee market a couple decades out will primarily be a function of adoption or lack thereof. In a world of eight billion people, only a couple hundred million can do an on chain transaction per year, or a bit more with maximal batching. The number of people who could do a monthly transaction is 1/12th of that number. In order to be concerned that bitcoin fees will be too low to prevent censorship in the future, we have to start with the assumption that not many people use bitcoin decades out.

Fedwire has about 100x the gross volume that Bitcoin currently does, with a similar number of transactions. What will Bitcoin’s fee market be if volumes go up 5x or 10x, let alone 50x or 100x? Who wants to raise their hand with a confident model of what bitcoin volumes will be in 2040?

What will someone pay to send a ten million dollar equivalent on chain settlement internationally? $100 in fees per million dollar settlement transaction would be .01%. $300 to get it in a quicker block would be 0.03%. That type of environment can generate tens of billions of dollars of fees annually. The fees that people pay to ship millions of dollars of gold long distances, or to perform a real estate transaction worth millions of dollars, are extremely high. Even if bitcoin is a fraction of that, it would be high by today’s standards. And in a world of billions of people, if nobody wants to pay $100 to send a million dollar settlement bearer asset transaction, then that’s a world where not many people use bitcoin period.

In some months the “security budget” concern trends. In other months, the “fees will be so high that only rich people can transact on chain” concern trends. These are so wildly contradictory and the fact that both are common concerns shows how little we know about the long term future.

I don’t think the fee market can be fixed by gimmicks. Either the network is desirable to use in a couple decades or it’s not. If 3 or 4 decades into bitcoin’s life it can’t generate significant settlement volumes, and gets easily censored due to low fees, then it’s just not a very desirable network at that point for one reason or another.

Some soft forks like covenants can be thoughtfully considered for scaling and fee density, and it’s good for smart developers to always be thinking about low risk improvements to the network that the node network and miners might have a high consensus positive view toward over time. But trying to rush VC-backed softforks, and using security budget FUD to push them, is pretty disingenuous imo.

Anyway, good morning.

JUST IN - With inflation spiking, Turkey's swift move to #Bitcoin  might hint at a worldwide financial shift 🔥

📉 52% of 🇹🇷 adults are now exploring #Bitcoin  😮

What’s Next 🤔

🇹🇷 #Bitcoin  Boom: @kucoincom KuCoin reports a jump from 40% adoption in 2021 to 52% in 2023.

-71% prefer #Bitcoin , especially as the lira drops 50% against the dollar. Notably, women now account for 47% of young Turkish #Bitcoin  enthusiasts.

🌐 Global #Btc  Trend: It's not just Turkey. Argentina 🇦🇷 and Venezuela 🇻🇪 are also turning to #Bitcoin  amidst financial turmoil.

🇺🇸 : Remember the US inflation peak in the 80s? With a recent 8% inflation scare, could Americans lean more towards Bitcoin soon 🤔

🔍 Points to Ponder:

- Gold 🥇 once shielded against inflation. Now, its glow competes with Bitcoin’s shine.

- 🇹🇷 unique inflation strategy? Cut interest rates, leading the lira to tumble.

🚀 Big Picture: Economic challenges worldwide are amplifying #Bitcoin 's role as an inflation guard ❤️

[Source](dailycoin.com/inflation-ridd…)

State?

When shall I expect a sample for review? 😉😆 jk