NEW: Available visual evidence indicates that the Russian Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strike on the night of January 8 to 9 struck a Ukrainian defense industrial enterprise in Lviv City.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 10, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar011026 (1/5)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mc4dqxd4y22r
NEW: The Iranian regime has sustained its nationwide internet shutdown, likely to disrupt protest coordination and obscure the scale of its repression. Widespread protest activity has continued to take place across Iran amid the internet shutdown. 🧵(1/8)
Read more: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate010926
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mc23e3lgqs24
NEW: The US Coast Guard seized two oil tankers with links to Russia for attempting to bypass US sanctions against Venezuelan oil.
Read the full Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 7, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar010726
More Key Takeaways ⬇️ (1/3)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mbv4iats7d2r
NEW: Justice Mission 2025 simulated a blockade of Taiwan’s major port cities and the interdiction of Taiwanese energy imports.
Read the full December 31, 2025, China & Taiwan Special Report: https://isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanSpecialReport123125
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mbcw6kwlrv2q
NEW: The Kremlin continues to offer no evidence to support its claims that Ukrainian drones targeted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence on the night of December 28 to 29. 🧵(1/6)
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 30, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar123025
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mbas53vzgj2d
NEW: The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) seized a “foreign” tanker near Gheshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on December 24. The IRGC claimed the tanker was smuggling four million liters of oil.🧵(1/)
Iran Update, December 26, 2025: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate122625
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mawg47ou3m24
NEW: The frontline in Ukraine is not facing imminent collapse despite recent Russian gains and Kremlin assertions. (1/4)
Read the full Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 28, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar112825
More Key Takeaways ⬇️
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m6qrsysbkj2h
NEW: The Trump administration continues efforts to negotiate a peace deal to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.🧵(1/7)
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar112525
Other Key Takeaways:
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m6izutmj5h27
NEW: US and Ukrainian officials indicated that the initially reported US-proposed 28-point peace plan is not final and is currently undergoing changes.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 23, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar112325
Other Key Takeaways⬇️(1/4)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m6dyzohqze2p
NEW: Russian officials and state media continue to set information conditions to reject the US-proposed 28-point peace plan, indicating that the Kremlin is actively conditioning the Russian people to not accept anything less than a full victory in Ukraine. 🧵(1/8)
Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar112225
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m6b4vus5c22w
NEW: Russian forces are struggling to focus on a single decisive objective in the Pokrovsk direction and instead continue simultaneous attempts to close the encirclement of the wider Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket while also attacking within both towns. 🧵 (1/7)
Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar111825
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m5xfqitrky2p
NEW: The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire monitoring committee has agreed to meet more frequently, likely to encourage greater dialogue between Israel and Lebanon. The ceasefire monitoring committee may seek to increase dialogue between Israel and Lebanon to resolve ongoing disagreements. (1/4)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m4erpswsne2h
NEW: The Lebanese Armed Forces’ apparent hesitancy to disarm Hezbollah has increased international frustration and concern about a potential resumption of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.
Iran Update: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate102725
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️ 🧵
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m47m5oyalb2u
WARNING: The Kremlin is Preparing to Mobilize Reservists on a Rolling Basis to Fight in Ukraine for the First Time: isw.pub/UKRWARNO101325
Note: This warning does not suggest that the Kremlin is likely to undertake a single large-scale mobilization at this time.
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https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m34pugnkil2d
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin explicitly stated that he does not consider Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to be the legitimate president of Ukraine, invalidating the very basis of any future peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia.
More key takeaways + full assessment ⬇🧵(1/8)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lxyavq72ls23
NEW: Iranian parliamentarians introduced a three-part bill on August 28 to withdraw Iran from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, likely to pressure the E3 to not reimpose UN Security Council sanctions on Iran. 🧵(1/2)
Iran Update, August 29, 2025: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate082925
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lxl5uoud7l2u
NEW: The second round of legislative recall votes in Taiwan failed. This highlights the failure of the ruling DPP to rally the public in order to remove legislators from the opposition KMT. (🧵1/4)
Read more: https://isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanUpdate082925
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lxl3dij4tl2i
NEW: Russian developers continue to introduce and test new kinetic anti-drone measures such as drone interceptors, thermal imaging sighting systems, and lasers.
Read more: https://isw.pub/ForceGenUpdate082525 (1/5)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lxabrflqbj2f
NEW: Russian occupation authorities are introducing new restrictions on communications in occupied Ukraine while continuing to impose the use of the Russian-controlled MAX messaging software. 🧵(1/7)
Read more: https://isw.pub/OccupationUpdate082125
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lww3ufdezn2n
MORE: The Russian economy continues to face budget deficits as a result of increased defense spending and the detrimental effects of Western sanctions and secondary tariffs. (1/3) isw.pub/UkrWar082025
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https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lwvyelazg22g
NEW: Russian forces continued to infiltrate Ukrainian defenses east and northeast of Dobropillya (northwest of Pokrovsk) using limited sabotage and reconnaissance groups on August 12.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Aug. 12, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar081225
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️ (1/4)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lwaw7u4rpj2s
NEW|Russian forces conducted a large-scale series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of July 20 to 21 that included over 400 drones as Russia continues to launch significantly larger strike packages in June and July 2025 than in January to May 2025. (1/6)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3luiz2penkp26
NEW: A US media outlet reported on July 17 that US strikes in Iran on June 21 caused significant damage to only one of the three Iranian nuclear facilities that the United States struck.
Read more in the July 17 Iran Update: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate071725
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lu7cl3iqyh2j
NEW | Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10, 2025: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed frustration following a June 10 meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov about Russia's lack of progress towards ending the war in Ukraine. 1/3
Full Update: isw.pub/UkrWar071025
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3ltnxkg7vns27
NEW: The US and Iran will reportedly resume nuclear negotiations soon. Iran will likely reject any US nuclear proposal that requires Iran to halt uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, given that Iran has maintained its position on uranium enrichment from before the war. https://isw.pub/IranUpdate062625
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lskl2yfsgs2w
NEW: Ukraine conducted a large-scale and simultaneous series of drone strikes against multiple air bases in Russia. Ukraine continues to innovate its drone technology and tactics to achieve operational surprise and successfully target Russian military infrastructure in the rear. isw.pub/UkrWar060125
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lqlstesook2r
NEW: Western insider reporting about Kremlin demands to end the war in Ukraine continues to align with repeated public statements from Kremlin officials outlining Russia's demands, indicating that Russia's goal of Ukrainian capitulation and destruction of NATO remains unchanged. isw.pub/UkrWar052825
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lqbnyxqf5c2y
NEW: Iran and the United States appear to be trying to secure an interim nuclear deal before negotiating a comprehensive nuclear agreement. It is unclear if the reported interim deal that Iran seeks will satisfy US demands.
Iran Update, May 28, 2025: isw.pub/IranUpdate052825
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lqbm4vgjrs2y
NEW: Putin is leveraging long-range strikes against Ukrainian cities, aggressive rhetorical campaigns, & excessive pessimism in the West about the battlefield situation in Ukraine to degrade Ukrainian morale & convince the West that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable🧵1/7 isw.pub/UkrWar052525
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lpzzuu2ne22b
MORE: Russia continues to promote the false narrative accusing Ukrainian forces of "neo-Nazism" as part of dual Kremlin efforts to justify cont'd Russian offensive operations in Ukraine despite ongoing peace talks and to prepare Russians for a Russian rejection of any future peace agreement. 🧵(1/3)
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https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lpq3epe5uk2o
US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations: Two unspecified diplomatic sources in Iran told anti-regime media on May 21 that Iran asked Omani mediators to convince the United States to ease US demands in negotiations, likely referring to the US demand for zero uranium enrichment. https://isw.pub/IranUpdate052125
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https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lppwheafvs2q
Russian Presidential Aide Medinsky highlighted that Russia is prepared to continue its war in Ukraine for years to come. Medinsky reportedly referenced the Great Northern War (1700-1721) when asking "How long [is Ukraine] ready to fight?" and claimed that "Russia is prepared to fight forever."
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https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lpegjwwzk22w
Putin is rejecting the joint US-Ukrainian-European proposal for a general ceasefire and instead continues to demand Ukrainian surrender in an attempt to secure his strategic goals by drawing out negotiations while continuing to make battlefield gains. ⬇️(1/3) isw.pub/UkrWar051125
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https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lowqfndhfc24
@katstepanenko.bsky.social: “Part of it is a psychological and political campaign that the Kremlin is waging... trying to scare Ukrainian people into essentially accepting capitulation when the realities of the battlefield for Russia are far from Russia winning." https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/04/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-patriot-systems.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Ek8.VA0U.qO8cJY2cLcoC&smid=url-share
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3logv4njam223
Russia continues to reject US and European proposals to deploy Western peacekeeping forces to Ukraine and calls for Russia to make territorial concessions in pursuit of a lasting peace in Ukraine, signaling the Kremlin's unyielding negotiating position. isw.pub/UkrWar050125
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https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lo5v4ttoh22c
Kremlin officials continue to reiterate their refusal to make any territorial concessions even after reports of a US 7-point peace plan that offered "de jure" US recognition of Russian sovereignty over occupied Crimea & "de facto" recognition of Russian control over the rest of occupied Ukraine🧵1/3
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https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lo3des5ozd23
[ISW] says the latest Russian video “indicates that the Russian military is likely developing a tactical doctrine for systematic offensive motorcycle usage and may be preparing to issue an increased number of motorcycles.” https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/27/europe/russian-military-motorbikes-ukraine-drones-intl/index.html
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lnxrkqjv5k2m
The Kremlin continues attempts to hold legitimate ceasefire negotiations hostage in order to secure additional concessions from Ukraine and the United States. ⬇️(1/2)
isw.pub/UkrWar042825
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https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lnwcvqref22d
NEW: Russian forces are attempting to offset Ukrainian technological adaptations and drone operations by integrating motorcycles and civilian vehicles into offensive operations along the entire frontline.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 27, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar042725
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lntgtrsohs2v
Reuters also published the full text of the seven-point peace proposal that US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff reportedly presented to Ukrainian and European officials in Paris on April 17, supporting earlier reporting about the US peace proposal. 🧵(1/3)
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https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lnot4weli22l