Avatar
Vince Canger
75917115320b6c87128fc84d8eda00cb1b3824d0914452867e8285aad3ab1afd
I build software products. Love learning about macroeconomics, geopolitics, and psychology. Music nerd. Integrated BTC LN payments into https://CoverLetterGPT.xyz /

gotta be honest. $59k got me back on nostr 😆

i still prefer twitter over nostr.

fight me.

Just finished Broken Money by nostr:npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a and oof, what a great read!

The only lingering question I had was what would our current economy look like on a bitcoin standard? I mean, our fiat-based system has resulted in an extreme rise in quality of life standards for most. It has to have some benefit, right?

So I thought, maybe I should buy The Bitcoin Standard by Ammous. But then I realized that only good can come from allowing people the option to increase their wealth through savings, and then I bought "Mastering Bitcoin" by Antonopoulos instead

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

“We should change Bitcoin now in a contentious way to fix the security budget” is basically the same tinkering mentality that central bankers have.

It begins with an overconfident assumption that they know fees won’t be sufficient in the future and that a certain “fix” is going to generate more fees. But some “fixes” could even backfire and create less fees, or introduce bugs, or damage the incentive structure.

The Bitcoin fee market a couple decades out will primarily be a function of adoption or lack thereof. In a world of eight billion people, only a couple hundred million can do an on chain transaction per year, or a bit more with maximal batching. The number of people who could do a monthly transaction is 1/12th of that number. In order to be concerned that bitcoin fees will be too low to prevent censorship in the future, we have to start with the assumption that not many people use bitcoin decades out.

Fedwire has about 100x the gross volume that Bitcoin currently does, with a similar number of transactions. What will Bitcoin’s fee market be if volumes go up 5x or 10x, let alone 50x or 100x? Who wants to raise their hand with a confident model of what bitcoin volumes will be in 2040?

What will someone pay to send a ten million dollar equivalent on chain settlement internationally? $100 in fees per million dollar settlement transaction would be .01%. $300 to get it in a quicker block would be 0.03%. That type of environment can generate tens of billions of dollars of fees annually. The fees that people pay to ship millions of dollars of gold long distances, or to perform a real estate transaction worth millions of dollars, are extremely high. Even if bitcoin is a fraction of that, it would be high by today’s standards. And in a world of billions of people, if nobody wants to pay $100 to send a million dollar settlement bearer asset transaction, then that’s a world where not many people use bitcoin period.

In some months the “security budget” concern trends. In other months, the “fees will be so high that only rich people can transact on chain” concern trends. These are so wildly contradictory and the fact that both are common concerns shows how little we know about the long term future.

I don’t think the fee market can be fixed by gimmicks. Either the network is desirable to use in a couple decades or it’s not. If 3 or 4 decades into bitcoin’s life it can’t generate significant settlement volumes, and gets easily censored due to low fees, then it’s just not a very desirable network at that point for one reason or another.

Some soft forks like covenants can be thoughtfully considered for scaling and fee density, and it’s good for smart developers to always be thinking about low risk improvements to the network that the node network and miners might have a high consensus positive view toward over time. But trying to rush VC-backed softforks, and using security budget FUD to push them, is pretty disingenuous imo.

Anyway, good morning.

I was reading the debate on twitter today about bitcoin's "security budget" and thought "I wish Lyn would weigh in on this."

Then I come to NOSTR and there she is.

Thanks, gurl.

p.s. I love that there is Twit Lyn and Nostr Lyn

just ordered it! how much of it is based on your essays and how much is new content!?

i added âšĄïž login and payments for CoverLetterGPT.xyz

30 sats to generate and edit your cover letters!

thanks to nostr:npub1m6yz8nwf0xl5cafjy0kurxn6hs67eleft8h4pj57n4tn4s8c8lgqd2mzj9 for the inspo! đŸ§™â€â™‚ïž

https://youtu.be/2-uO_N9OrHU

I added lightning login and payments to CoverLetterGPT

pay 30 sats to generate and edit your cover letters!

https://youtu.be/2-uO_N9OrHU

@npub1teawtzxh6y02cnp9jphxm2q8u6xxfx85nguwg6ftuksgjctvavvqnsgq5u Verifying My Public Key: "hot_town"

I added lightning payments to CoverLetterGPT.xyz. Looking for people to test it out and give me feedback!

Each generation/edit only costs 30 sats / $0.01. What a deal. Someone Zap Me!!!

https://youtu.be/2-uO_N9OrHU