Let's try this again...

Current #macro conditions are almost perfect for a non-recessionary dovish Fed pivot in mid-September.

The closest example in recent history is the mid-1990s Fed rate cuts, which didn't lead to--or coincide with--a major US recession.

Rather, the easing conditions helped initiate and support what would later become the famous/infamous dot com bubble of the late-1990s.

A weak (but non-recessionary) economy and central bank #QE is the perfect combination for rising risk assets (and especially, #bitcoin) in the coming quarters.

Just my opinion, of course. Feel free to disagree and side with the Doom and Gloomers... of which there are many... most of whom don't actually manage money... or manage it well. 🙃

Cheers.

6 posts set and ready for beams tomorrow

Just got triggered by another bitcoin analyst write-up.

So, for like the zillionth time...

The last six months of price consolidation "at or near the 2021 highs" is NOT ATYPICAL OR UNUSUAL if you understand that:

1. The 2021 bitcoin price high of approximately $69k was an (abnormally low) anomaly, historically-speaking... and *should have* been closer to $125k.

2. The anomaly was caused primarily by China's sudden and effective ban of Bitcoin mining, which caused the hash rate to drop precipitously by approximately 50% in the spring/summer months of 2021. By the time hash rate recovered, the liquidity and leverage wave of late 2021 had reached its peak, limiting further upside price action.

3. Once understood, the current post-halving rangebound consolidation of approximately 40-60% of $125k (range: $50k-75k) is TOTALLY NORMAL and quite similar to 2H 2016 and 2H 2020 price action.

Hopefully this makes sense and is helpful to those who are despairing and/or are new to bitcoin.

Cheers. 🍻

nostr:note1mz3u87dhsrf5r2yud7alrd8yls9heddtk4l6wx7n7zvy4asl5enq3cdcg9

One of my favorite Bitcoin cartoons.