I have zero tabs open for the first time in many years.

Is that because you are vibe coding?

I am on my 11th shit since Sunday night. I’ve created the best recipe ever for constipation.

Red potatoes, cauliflower peppers, onion, garlic, carrots, cabbage, corn with hot sausage.

Give it a shot, I mean shit

I mean I basically don’t know what the fuck a yield curve or a carry trade or a convertible note is but I hear people talking about them every day as if they were taught in grade school along with algebra and geometry.

Wondering what life would look like without red candles

starting to find myself wanting *people you have interacted with recently* as a feed.

Most of the people on my contact list don’t even post anymore. I want something more dynamic.

Arrival is so great. One of the best modern sci fi films. I keep coming back to it over the years. It gets better with every viewing. It has a perfect atmosphere. 10/10

I remember back when Israel went into Gaza, and markets took a hit, bitcoin was down notably and many tradfi macro folks who I otherwise respect for good market analysis were like “Why is bitcoin down today? I thought it’s a safe haven, lol.”

Similarly, today when bitcoin is up amid market turmoil, the bitcoin bulls celebrate it.

I’d be cautious about all one-day moves. If you over-emphasize them, you risk looking like someone with a memory of a goldfish, or otherwise operating with selection bias.

However, a point I have made in the past, and will repeat today, is that there are different types of risk-off events. A risk-off event that hurts liquidity is likely to hurt bitcoin. A risk-off event that demands more liquidity, or that is unrelated to liquidity (eg tariffs attacking corporate margins), is more likely to benefit or at least kind of spare Bitcoin.

Focusing on Bitcoin as a risk on or risk off asset is first level thinking. People who understand it deeply and self custody it tend to view it as risk off period, for good reason. But not always in terms of price. In terms of price, whether it functions as a risk on/off asset varies based on what type of risk on/off catalyst it was.

This catalyst risks hitting margins, not liquidity, and thus so far the reaction makes sense. But it still pays to be careful not to celebrate one-day moves too much.

Cautiously bullish.