Avatar
buttlefish
7acf408ae1fbe7bd2bf23a29408c9190f50e884ea0c5159ddbe087b98d5e0369
Feeling nostrated
Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

I spoke at a big bitcoin-adjacent company this week and one of the best questions was from someone who asked what the downsides of bitcoin adoption might be.

I always do appreciate these steelman questions, the skeptical questions, the ones where we challenge ourselves. Only when we can answer those types of questions do we understand the concept that we are promoting.

So the classic example is that in modern economic literature, "deflation is bad". This, however, is only the case in a highly indebted system. Normally, deflation is good. Money appreciates, technology improves, and goods and services get cheaper over time as they should. Price of Tomorrow covers this well. My book touches on this too, etc. The "deflation is bad" meme is still alive in modern economic discourse and thus is worth countering, but I think in the bitcoin spectrum of communities, people get that deflation is fine and good.

My answer to the question was in two parts.

The first part was technological determinism. In other words, if we were to re-run humanity multiple times, there are certain rare accidents that might not replicate, and other commonalities that probably would. Much like steam engines, internal combustion engines, electricity, and nuclear power, I think a decentralized network of money is something we would eventually come across. In our case, Bitcoin came into existence as soon as the bandwidth and encryption tech allowed it to. In other universes or simulations it might look a bit different (e.g. might not be 21 million or ten minute block times exactly), but I think decentralized real-time settlement would become apparent as readily as electricity does, for any civilization that reaches this point. So ethics aside, it just is what it is. It exists, and thus we must deal with it.

The second part was that in my view, transparency and individual empowerment is rarely a bad thing. Half of the world is autocratic. And half of the world (not quite the same half) deals with massive structural inflation. A decentralized spreadsheet that allows individuals to store and send value can't possibly be a bad thing, unless humanity itself is totally corrupted. I then went into more detail with examples about historical war financing, and all sorts of tangible stuff. In other words, a whole chapter full of stuff. I've addressed this in some articles to.

In your view, if you had to steelman the argument as best as you could, what are the scenarios where bitcoin is *BAD* for humanity rather than good for it, on net?

I would say that we don't have the social experience of dealing with something truly finite. We've always lived in a world of money and wealth being somewhat infinite. At some point, bitcoin becomes zero sum, we all trade and fight and scrap for the same amount of bitcoin. From birth, any bitcoin you earn is taking it from someone else. Yes the pie of goods and services can grow larger, and bitcoin becomes more divisible. But as a social construct, we havent seen how people would act in this framework.

We need to get one MSM site with paywalls to integrate Lightning. They don't even need to touch btc if it just gets converted to fiat on the other end. It's such a win-win.

This "It's not a bailout" chat. If you're lending against par value and ignoring market value, that's a bailout in my books.

Like if your property plummets and you breach LTV and the Bank says "Don't worry, we'll just mark your covenants against the purchase price and forget the market price. It'll get back there eventually."

Gigi writes, we read, everyone feels good.

Powerful. Feel your pain and your passion. I've just bought Fraudcoin after reading the sample. Can't wait to dig in.

Kollider article on using paid relays for better nostr experience

https://blog.kollider.xyz/using-nostr-with-paid-relay/

Japan - inflation just hit a 41 year high at 4.3%. And they're still easing!

lnbc640n1p3lsaa4pp55pew60a80cs3ls42t9zhkmjw0m4n53f6yrkfvahgurjqvy8qjvtqdq5g9kxy7fqd9h8vmmfvdjscqzpgxqyz5vqsp579u3c3t5crgxm8venqmmy9cptaanjmzk82mg8qnhrqp0zzgcpwtq9qyyssqzwqkp5vnq4qsmf6uxth8agzxyckdwwcvspv9fyezn8f6kvfl8fght9n78lq8tg7aaqqcq3m0rgtlx7v39seuh4d74ttwkvct3camxasql8yzxg

Out here zapping, yet to get zapped. Wanna know the feeling. Can someone hook a pleb up? Will return the favour 🙏