The markets are spooked.
With recessionary fears - Bitcoin and other risk-on assets have got caught-up between Trump's attempt at reeling-in both - the budget as well as the trade deficits.
However, considering:
1. D.O.G.E cuts restricted to discretionary spending
2. A $36T federal debt with +$1T of interest payments
3. Trump cutting taxes and shrinking tax revenues
4. Rising trade & tariff wars and protectionist policies
And, in the absence of :
1. Significant reduction in mandatory spending across - Social Security, Medicare & Defence, and/or
2. U.S. federal debt (worth $36T) restructuring
There is a higher probability of meaningful contraction in trade deficits vs. similar success with bringing down U.S. budget deficits.
The combination of - a contracting trade deficit with an as-is or expanding budget deficit will lead to:
1. Intermediate-term strong, but long-term weak DXY.
2. And the likely impact of #Bitcoin and risk-on assets will be positive
The recessionary fears will fade-away as soon as the market figures out that Trump's intended transition of the U.S. economy is much harder to achieve that it initially expected.
Hang in there and Hodl strong.
There was a time, when MSM was equally about quality education as it was about unbiased news.
Those days have been replaced with intellectual laziness, propaganda and biased narratives.
Don't know who needs to hear this, but - Beanie Babies and #Bitcoin are not the same.
A: #Bitcoin is predictably boring.
1. No CEO,
2. No HQ,
3. No pre-mine,
4. No downtime,
5. No rug.
B: Well, enjoy shitcoining yourself into the excitement of getting REKT.
1. If this is your first cycle,
2. 100% of your bag is full of micro-alts,
3. And, you are uneasy with market uncertainty.
Then: 100X that fear and 0X your bag - that's what a bear market will feel like.
Be smart. Dump that bag into the next pump and study #Bitcoin.
"Develop budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional bitcoin" = Revalue gold reserves.
If implemented, both Gold & #Bitcoin will moon.
2021: The institutions are here (**to observe**).
2025: The U.S. will stack (**forfeited**) Bitcoin.
The narrative leads, the real action kicks-in much later.
Expect nation-states to seriously compete & build their #Bitcoin reserves over the next cycle.
The goal isn’t to get rich with #Bitcoin.
The goal is to exit the system of debasement.
'Seeking Certainty' charges you outsized expenses, but delivers peace-of-mind.
'Tolerating Uncertainty' charges you peace-of-mind, but delivers outsized returns.
Instead of opting for one or the other, find the mix that works best for you.
#Bitcoin
The conventionally rich will not want #Bitcoin until they find themselves to have become conventionally poor.
Imagine if people spent as much time stacking #Bitcoin as they do complaining about:
1. Inflation
2. The Economy, and
3. Everything that's beyond their control
They'd solve most of their problems.
MSM says #Bitcoin is too volatile.
Normies hear Bitcoin is too risky.
Meanwhile, institutions continue stacking.
Wanting to ride EVERY leg-up in a #Bitcoin bull, implicitly requires having to sit through ALL the local drawdowns.
Expecting the former without the latter is naïve.
Noob: I don't have any #Bitcoin.
Also, Noob: I am waiting for the perfect entry.
WHAT?🤦🤡
🤝 🎯
Same here, Dave! 🤝
Indeed 🤝 . Yet, its important to inform the tourists of 2025. In public service, that's all.
The problem isn’t #Bitcoin’s volatility.
But, the inability to handle it.
Passionately hated, polarizing, divisive & misunderstood assets lead to mispricing.
Calculated bets on mispriced assets deliver outsized returns.
With time #Bitcoin is going to be - less hated, less polarizing and better understood.
The mispricing window is closing.