//The Wire//2230Z January 26, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TEXAS CONTINUES REINFORCING BORDER. OIL TANKER STRUCK IN GULF OF ADEN.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria intensify overnight. AC: In addition to the impacts of the war in Gaza, these attacks are probably in response to Pentagon statements hinting at drawing down forces in Iraq. From Saigon to Kabul, any time a military withdrawal is implied, adversarial forces will seek to capitalize on that perceived weakness to make territorial gains.
Red Sea/HOA: This afternoon, Houthi forces conducted a successful attack on commercial shipping. The M/V MARLIN LUANDA (A British oil tanker) has reportedly suffered catastrophic damage after being struck with multiple cruise missiles in the Gulf of Aden. The vessel is currently on fire.
-HomeFront-
USA: The Biden regime halts all new LNG export licenses. AC: The official reasoning for this is due to climate change, but it is possible this is a political move intended to pressure Texas companies, which provide roughly 25% of all LNG in the US, and transport roughly 50% of the total LNG produced in the US.
TX: So far, a total of 25 Governors have issued statements of support for Texas’s defensive posture at the southern U.S. border. Beyond statements, several Governors have indicated that they will be providing more materiel support to Texas, though the details of this support are ambiguous and possibly related to support already pledged under Operation Lone Star.
The federal government has issued an ultimatum for Texas to comply with the SCOTUS ruling within 24 hours. No further information on this ultimatum at this time.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Despite many statements of support, the concrete actions taken by states in support of Texas are difficult to determine. Many states have already contributed varying military support for the Operation Lone Star mission for years. Consequently, it is challenging to determine if any new actions are being taken, or if any indicators are present that may suggest how seriously politicians are treating this endeavor. For instance, Governor Abbott is not physically located in Texas right now, he is in India. This alone may be an indicator of the seriousness of which a federal response is being considered.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2230Z January 25, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TEXAS CONTINUES BORDER POSTURE//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Tensions mount in Iraq as increased rhetoric indicates a possible change in US posture throughout the region. Rumors persist regarding whether or not the US will be leaving or reducing posture in Iraq following recent political events. These sentiments have been exacerbated following Pentagon officials announcing the creation of working groups to examine the possibility of transitioning coalition efforts to locals.
-HomeFront-
TX: Constitutional crisis continues as several states declare support for Texas’s defensive posture. So far, the Governors of 21 states have issued statements of support for Texas. TXNG forces continue to improve obstacles along the border.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though tensions are high in Iraq, and US government officials are reportedly reexamining the United States’ future in Iraq, these issues are not new. Consequently, it is possible that this is merely a shakedown operation for Iraqis to obtain more funding in exchange for allowing a continued US presence. Conversely, it is also possible that insurgent groups (such as ISIS, who have seen a quiet resurgence throughout the region following the stagnation of COIN operations over the past few years) have influenced atmospherics enough to impact policy. It is too soon to tell if the US is seriously considering leaving Iraq, at least until more indicators are present regarding the diplomatic situation on the ground.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2130Z January 24, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TEXAS REAFFIRMS DEFENSIVE STANCE. MAERSK FAILS ATTEMPT TO RECOMMENCE OPERATIONS IN RED SEA//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Canada: Following a months-long investigation into Justin Trudeau’s actions during the 2022 “Freedom Convoy” trucker protests, the Federal Court of Canada has ruled that Trudeau’s actions were unconstitutional. AC: As a reminder, last September this investigation process revealed falsified intelligence reporting, which intended to falsely indicate the protesters presented a terrorism threat. These documents indicate that the RCMP used falsified data from the Canadian Anti-Hate Network (an NGO) as sourcing for their own investigative reports, which lead to the justification of Trudeau’s invocation of the Emergencies Act to freeze the finances of protesters, along with a myriad of other targeting tactics.
Red Sea/HOA: Two MAERSK vessels attempting to transit the Bab el Mandeb Strait have reversed course following Yemeni attacks. The M/V MAERSK CHESAPEAKE and M/V MAERSK DETROIT (both American flagged, owned, and operated) were attacked with multiple cruise missiles as they attempted to run northbound through the Bab el Mandeb Strait under the escort of US Navy warships.
Far East: DPRK leadership continues to erase references to reunification with South Korea. In addition to removing reunification topics from propaganda websites, open-source satellite imagery indicates North Korea has demolished the famous 30m tall Arch of Reunification in Pyongyang. This move follows months of increased tensions as DPRK leadership has progressively shifted into a more openly-hostile stance with regards to relations with South Korea.
-HomeFront-
TX: TXNG forces continue improving defenses along the southern U.S. border as the Constitutional crisis continues. Today, Governor Abbott issued a statement reaffirming Texas’ Constitutional right to self-defense (which supersedes federal statutes), stating that “The federal government has broken the compact between the United States and the States”.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though the missiles targeting MAERSK ships either missed or were intercepted successfully by the US Navy, the interception took place only a few hundred meters from the vessels…much too close for comfort for commercial shipping. As such, this does not bode well for the success of US Navy warships attempting to escort convoys through the high-risk areas.
In Texas, the line has been drawn by the State (the seriousness of which cannot be overstated). Now, Texas awaits the federal response, whatever that may be. As expected, this issue has been slow to build, with events suddenly compounding all at once. Texas’ stance, while largely an irritation for federal forces, is much more than a simple political issue and serves as a beacon of resistance for many Americans; the atmospherics of which seem to be lost on federal officials, who are largely oblivious as to the anger/frustrations of average Americans. As American’s frustrations are at a boiling point, issues such as the border crisis may serve as the path-of-least-resistance for other unrelated issues and pent-up frustrations. It is this indefinable factor that requires the utmost care and tact if a larger conflict is to be avoided.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z January 23, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TEXAS CONTINUES CURRENT THREAT POSTURE AT BORDER//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Protests and counter-protests continue on a variety of issues. Anti-government protests remain constant in the Netherlands, Germany, France, Poland, Spain, and Romania. Pro-government counter protests have been observed in limited capacities, with most counter-protests being observed in France.
Red Sea/HOA: Coalition targeting efforts continue in Yemen as Houthi attacks on commercial shipping remain regular. Non-western shipping remains unaffected through the region. Rumors persist regarding the potential for increased military operations in Yemen. AC: Nothing is set in stone, and the motive for stoking the fires of military intervention is always increased during election seasons or times when European leaders are facing domestic problems. However, it is difficult to imagine that anything short of a substantial LSCO would result in the desired effects of freedom of navigation. However, few nations possess the capabilities to conduct such actions. Also, the lack of tact and nuance necessary for power-players to arrive at a clever solution to this problem make it unclear as to what the general plan to mitigate this crisis is.
-HomeFront-
TX: State authorities have issued statements confirming that their posture at the border has not changed following the SCOTUS ruling. Concertina and razor wire remains in place, and TXNG soldiers remain in blocking positions preventing illegal immigration. This afternoon, local reports indicate TXNG forces strengthening their positions and improving obstacles along the border.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though difficult to verify with any accuracy, commercial shipping companies appear to have established substantial communication and authorization procedures for ships attempting to transit the Red Sea. In direct opposition to US Navy guidance, ships are engaging in an authorization process to streamline the process of obtaining permission to transiting the region. As this crisis develops, cargo companies with billions of dollars on the line are likely not going to accept ambiguity of whether or not their ships are going to be targeted. As such, it’s highly likely that covert corporate communications are being established with Yemeni forces to ensure safe passage for their ships…and encourage complications among their competitors. As military options have proven to be largely ineffective, it is more than likely that private companies are arriving at solutions, skirting diplomatic and military options.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2130Z January 22, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SCOTUS RULES AGAINST TEXAS’ ACTIONS TO PREVENT ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Virgin Atlantic Airways Flight 127 (originally scheduled to depart Manchester, U.K. for New York) was canceled after a boarding passenger looked out their window and noticed four missing screws from the aircraft’s wing. The flight was canceled to allow more time for more thorough maintenance inspections.
Red Sea/HOA: The U.S. Navy has called off the search for the two SEALs that went missing during operations in the region last week. This marks the first American deaths affiliated with the Red Sea Crisis. This comes as initial reports indicate the European Union preparing plans for a Large Scale Combat Operation in Yemen. AC: Though details are very unconfirmed, Yemen’s actions to restrict western trade routes will likely result in some action from European powers. So far OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN has largely been a failure, despite limited success in downing Houthi missiles and drones. However, as total security cannot be guaranteed and Yemeni strikes have been effective, western nations have likely been weighing more substantial options since this crisis began.
Far East: Chinese military actions IVO the Taiwan Strait continue. Over the weekend, Taiwan detected 6x Spy Balloons in addition to Chinese aircraft and ships conducting exercises in the region.
-HomeFront-
TX: The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled in favor of the Biden regime, allowing federal agents to remove razor wire on the U.S. southern border. No opinions were provided with this ruling. AC: All eyes are on Texas as citizens await what could be a serious flashpoint. The idea of state’s rights vs. federal rights is obviously a hot-button issue well seated in our nation’s history. As such, this ruling is probably more serious than one may realize at first, being largely representative of sentiments that have been bubbling for decades (possibly longer).
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: While it is unclear as to if a maintenance oversight would have resulted in catastrophic failure aboard flight VS127, the failure of complex systems that may result in catastrophe remains a concern for most. This incident is by no means out of the ordinary in being the latest continuation of long-standing deficiencies in the commercial aviation world. However, as more eyes are being more observant of issues in aviation, it is easy to forget that extremely concerning and slipshod maintenance practices are the industry standard in commercial aviation. Fortunately, more citizens are becoming more situationally aware of the rising risks in commercial aviation, from passengers having to visually inspect their aircraft for missing parts, to the concerning hiring practices of pilots. Consequently, situational awareness is becoming more essential for survival in industries that historically have been working at the level of the barest minimum of competency for decades.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//1830Z January 20, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CONFLICTS IN GAZA AND RED SEA CONTINUE. US BORDER CRISIS REMAINS TENSE//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Tensions between the U.K. and Russia increase as Russia plans to halt a 1956 agreement allowing British fishing companies to operate within the Barents Sea. This comes as NATO plans to launch the largest military exercises conducted in Europe in decades, with approximately 90,000 soldiers participating in exercises over the next few months. These exercises are scheduled to begin next week.
Middle East: Conflict in Gaza remains kinetic as before. Independent media coverage falters as censorship quietly increases on social media. Targeting of US military bases in Iraq and Syria increases following high tensions in the region.
Red Sea/HOA: Targeting of western-based shipping remains constant as the US Navy continues to intercept many missiles targeting shipping. Houthi forces in Yemen have announced that Russian and Chinese shipping will not be targeted, and ships from these nations are granted freedom of passage through the Red Sea.
-HomeFront-
TX: State Troopers have begun arresting illegals that cross the border on trespassing charges. This is a substantial change in policy as previously most illegal immigrants entering the US were processed by CBP and released into the US. This move comes as tensions escalate between state and federal forces, following Texas’ seizure of the Eagle Pass border crossing a few weeks ago. AC: As a reminder, the Biden regime issued Texas the ultimatum of withdrawing from the area and allowing CBP agents access to the border so as to facilitate illegal immigration more efficiently. This ultimatum expired yesterday, and while Texas did allow CBP agents access to the adjacent boat launch, Texas is still maintaining control of Eagle Pass.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As the 2024 election season creeps closer, a palpable increase in information warfare and narrative shaping has been observed across multiple domains. On social media, a slow-speed crackdown on alternative media personalities has been noted on Twitter/X as many conservative influencers report a radical change in analytics on the platform. This appears to largely be centered around journalists’ coverage of the events in Gaza; the censorship of which has taken the textbook approach of waiting until the news stories die down, then censoring personalities once the media spotlight has shifted to another topic. Similarly, many celebrities, pundits, and even political heads of state have observably changed political views and behavioral patterns with little explanation as to the urgency and speed of their narrative shift. Likewise, MSM reporting has taken an observably hostile tone, with one MSNBC “legal expert” floating the idea of Biden launching a preemptive kinetic strike on Mar-a-Lago. The content of rhetoric observed at the WEF has also recently become more openly hostile as powerful non-state actors attempt to counter resistance to their strategic plans. This perceivable increase in hostile rhetoric is almost certainly linked with the upcoming election season. However, as information warfare takes center stage, the discernment of truth will be much more difficult moving into 2024.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2330Z January 19, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: HOUTHI FORCES BEGIN TARGETING AMERICAN OIL TANKERS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Conflict continues in Gaza. Over the past few days, fighting along the northern border with Lebanon has intensified following Israeli raids. Hezbollah has also increased rocket attacks, with the Israeli port city of Haifa being struck with rockets overnight.
Red Sea/HOA: The vessel targeted yesterday in the eastern Gulf of Aden has been identified as the M/V CHEM RANGER, an American-owned tanker vessel. This marks the first deliberate targeting of an American-owned tanker so far in this conflict.
Far East: China continues military drills in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait, following Taiwanese elections last week.
-HomeFront-
USA: Congress quietly passes a stopgap funding bill to avoid a government shutdown. The funding bill, passed with bipartisan support, will fund the government until March 1.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Information is limited and contradictory as to the damage sustained in attack on the M/V CHEM RANGER. CENTCOM claims that both cruise missiles fired at the vessel missed. Other sources claim that the missiles did hit the vessel, resulting in severe damage. At this time independent verification cannot be conducted to verify either claim.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2330Z January 18, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PAKISTAN RETALIATES IN RESPONSE TO IRANIAN STRIKES. ATTACKS ON RED SEA SHIPPING INCREASE IN FREQUENCY.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: In response to Iranian missile strikes, Pakistan strikes targets in Iran. Last night, ISIS forces in Iraq successfully downed an American MQ-9 Reaper near Baghdad. AC: This is likely a power-projection move that may coincide with recent politics in the region. A few days ago, the Iraqi Parliament voted to expel the United States from their nation. Obviously, the U.S. will continue ignoring Iraqi demands to leave (as this debate has come up several times over the 20-year occupation of Iraq). However, this political move (along with the war in Gaza) will likely result in local insurgent groups being incentivized to carry out more substantial attacks than routine harassment engagements.
Red Sea/HOA: Coalition forces continue to strike targets in Yemen. The vessel struck by a Yemeni drone yesterday has been identified as the M/V GENCO PICARDY, an American owned bulk cargo carrier. Today, two separate incidents were reported in the Gulf of Aden. This morning, another American-owned commercial vessel reported observing 4 drones in the western Gulf of Aden, one of which attempted to attack the vessel (unsuccessfully). Separately, a different unidentified vessel was attacked in the eastern Gulf of Aden in a similar fashion (also unsuccessfully).
-HomeFront-
USA: A Congressional subcommittee has revealed more details of domestic spying. In a letter to a department of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), Rep. Jim Jordan outlines the investigative processes used by the Department of the Treasury (without any warrants or oversight) to spy on Americans. In the letter, USDT is alleged to flag certain financial transactions (via MCC codes) as being indicative of terrorism. Such extremism indicators are very broad, including purchasing firearms, renting cars, sporting goods, etc. In addition to flagging purchases by certain vendors, USDT analysis also includes specific keyword searches of specific transactions, to include words like MAGA and TRUMP. The letter also alleges that the purchase of religious texts is enough for the USDT to flag a taxpayer as potentially being a terrorist threat.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The reports indicating domestic American financial surveillance are not new issues; many scandals have broken out regarding illegal surveillance of taxpayers’ purchases over the years.
In the Red Sea, the intensification of targeting will likely continue as US airstrikes prove less than effective in preventing attacks on commercial shipping.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2130Z January 17, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: RED SEA ATTACKS CONTINUE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Iran continues to conduct ballistic missile strikes. Strikes have been reported in Pakistan, targeting alleged Israeli-linked groups within southwestern Pakistan. Strikes have also been reported in Syria, targeting ISIS factions within the northwestern districts of the country.
Red Sea/HOA: Yemeni targeting of commercial shipping continues as before. This morning, another (as yet unidentified) commercial vessel was struck by a Houthi drone in the Gulf of Aden. This comes as reports surface indicating global insurers are restricting coverage for vessels transiting the Red Sea, due to the ongoing conflict.
Diplomatically, the White House has announced that the Houthi-controlled Yemeni government will be again classified as a specially designated global terrorist group next month. AC: As a reminder, the Houthi regime was previously classified as a specially designated global terrorist group and a Foreign Terrorist Organization (which is the most serious diplomatic classification that can be applied in this situation). In 2021, almost immediately after Biden’s inauguration, these classifications were removed by the State Department.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As more companies begin to divert logistics routes away from the Red Sea, many logistical sectors are preparing for this crisis to settle in for the long haul. Yemeni forces have so far mostly focused targeting efforts on container ships bound for western ports, or ships that are in some way affiliated with Israel (which current traffic deviations around the Cape suggest is substantial). However, an important distinction must be noted: The last two vessels targeted by Yemeni forces were not container ships…but rather bulk cargo vessels. Consequently, concerns are increasing that commodities may begin to feel the pressure, not just consumer goods bound for western ports. Additionally, POL and LNG tankers have not substantially been targeted by Yemen. If tankers begin to be targeted in earnest, more substantial economic impacts will likely not be able to be suppressed or manipulated by artificial financial markets.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//1930Z January 16, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ATTACKS ON RED SEA SHIPPING ESCALATE. IRAN TARGETS ALLEGED MOSSAD SPY BASES IN IRAQ.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Attacks in the Red Sea intensify following U.S. targeting in Yemen. This morning, the M/V ZOGRAFIA was struck with a cruise missile in the southern Red Sea. Yesterday, the American-owned M/V GIBRALTAR EAGLE was also struck with a missile in the Gulf of Aden.
Middle East: Overnight, multiple targets within Erbil, Iraq were struck with multiple ballistic missiles originating from Iran. Iranian statements indicate this attack was conducted in response to the terror attack in Kerman weeks ago. Targets in Syria were also struck as IRGC forces carry out the largest ballistic missile attack in recent memory.
In Gaza, tensions between Egypt and Israel have intensified over the past few days as Israeli forces seek to maintain control of the Philadelphi Corridor. This thin strip of land along the Israeli-Egyptian border has served as a diplomatic buffer zone between Israel and Egypt following the 1979 peace treaty that officially halted the multiple conflicts in the region until that time. As Israel has sought to occupy this diplomatic no-mans-land (allegedly to halt the flow of weapons into Gaza), tensions in the region have been exacerbated. Egypt has previously stated that taking the Philadelphi corridor was a “red line”, and last night skirmishes were reported between Egyptian and Israeli troops along the border.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As a reminder, Yemeni leadership has constantly stated that a ceasefire in Gaza would result in a cessation of targeting in the Red Sea. As this option is completely off the table among warring parties, and the U.S. is unable to stop Yemeni targeting, attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea will likely continue. The war in Yemen, while largely a civil conflict, has also involved a coalition of Arab states since the beginning. A coalition of 10 Arab states has been waging war in Yemen since 2015 (along with the support from western powers), with the goal of ousting the Houthi-controlled government.
Despite initial reporting, the U.S. Consulate in Erbil was not targeted by IRGC forces last night. The closest location targeted was a private mansion approximately 3 miles NE of the U.S. Consulate, that was allegedly serving as a headquarters for Mossad. This location (IVO 38S MF 22091 18152) was the home of Peshraw Dizayee, the leader of Falcon Group, a large conglomerate of corporations involved with security, construction, real estate, oil and gas, cosmetics, and technology. This location was struck as Dizayee was allegedly conducting a meeting with four Mossad agents. The nature of this meeting appears to have coincided with a birthday party for Dizayee’s infant daughter (also killed in the attack), who would have turned one year old on Jan 25th. Also at the gathering was Karam Mikhail (an oil tycoon and friend of Dizayee), who was also killed in the attack.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//1530Z January 15, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SAR EFFORTS CONTINUE FOR SAILORS MISSING IN GULF OF ADEN. TAIWAN ELECTIONS RAISE TENSIONS IN REGION//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: U.S. Navy forces continue to search for two sailors that went missing on Saturday. Pentagon statements indicate that the sailors were SEALs who went missing during a boarding operation. No further details at this time.
Despite American airstrikes, Yemeni targeting of commercial shipping continues largely unabated. This morning, the UKMTO reported a missile strike on an as yet unidentified merchant vessel in the Gulf of Aden.
This morning, Qatar announced their cessation of LNG shipping through the Red Sea, in response to U.S. targeting. AC: Qatar provides approximately 13% of the LNG consumed by western Europe, all of which was transported via the Red Sea route.
Far East: Recent elections in Taiwan have exacerbated tensions with China. Following the election win of Lai Ching-te and the third consecutive win for Taiwan’s incumbent ruling party, the White House responded by issuing the statement that “We do not support independence”. AC: This continues the creeping departure from the long-standing policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’ regarding Taiwanese independence. As China will be looking at this election as an exacerbation of Taiwanese independence sentiments, China will likely be conducting major military drills in response to the election results.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – Further reports indicate the gross negligence surrounding SECDEF Lloyd Austin’s hospitalization. Follow on information indicates that, during Austin’s initial transfer of command while under anesthesia, his Deputy (Kathleen Hicks) did not cancel her beach vacation in Puerto Rico, remaining outside the United States during this crisis of command.
Washington D.C. – Protesters supporting Palestine and Yemen breached White House security Saturday night, breaking through an outer perimeter fence.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The Dr. Strangelove-esque risks clearly and openly presented by senior defense officials are not simply grievances of a personal or political nature, but indicative of the gross incompetency within the National Command Authority (NCA) that has resulted in exceptionally grave strategic vulnerabilities being presented to the world. As a reminder, following the Chinese Spy Balloon incident last year, a slew of firings swept through STRATCOM, with many senior leaders being relieved of command. Many of these firings continue; even as recently as last September the commander of the 9th Bomb Squadron was relieved after only a few months of command. As the current crisis unfolded, the SECDEF was hospitalized with a life-threatening illness, his Deputy was on a beach in Puerto Rico, and the White House knew nothing about any of this for a period of four to seven days. During that time, questions remain as to how the NCA was expected to function, especially considering the planning efforts on the eve of a major military operation in the Middle East (the strikes in Yemen).
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
RR The Wire 1630Z January 13, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 163013Z JAN 24
ICOD: 153013Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: U.S. NAVY SAILORS MISSING AT SEA IN GULF OF ADEN.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: CENTCOM has confirmed that the U.S. Navy is currently conducting SAR operations as two sailors have been reported missing. Airstrikes within Yemen enter their second day as Pentagon officials continue to withhold details of this operation. Little information has been disclosed as to the size, scope, or duration of this mission.
Europe: Investigative journalist (and American citizen) Gonzalo Lira has died in a Ukrainian prison. Following previous run-ins with Ukrainian officials, he was ultimately incarcerated in May for allegedly promoting “Russian aggression” in video content that was critical of Zelensky. Communication with him was limited before his death, but he did confirm that he had been tortured prior to his final imprisonment (and subsequent disappearance) which resulted from him trying to flee the country.
Far East: In Japan, ANA Flight 1182 experienced an in-flight emergency, returning to Toyama airport after takeoff. Pilots noticed a crack in a cockpit window, prompting the Boeing 737-800 to perform a precautionary landing. The crack did not result in any depressurization or injuries to the crew.
-HomeFront-
TX: The DHS has filed an emergency motion with SCOTUS to stop Texas from securing the southern border. At the moment, it is unclear as to if the SCOTUS will take the case.
Analyst Comments: As a reminder, there has been no statement explaining the combat operations within Yemen in any detail. As Congress has not approved this operation, the details of the operation itself are not public; we do not know if this is a limited action, a temporary campaign, or the beginning of a war. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby stated that “We’re not interested in…a war with Yemen. We’re not interested in a conflict of any kind here”. However, dropping bombs on a country is usually the defining characteristic of a conflict. Additionally, U.S. officials have urged commercial shipping to avoid the area. This is generally counterproductive for a military operation intended to increase freedom of navigation. Consequently, more shipping companies have announced a cessation of operations through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
As conflicting information abounds surrounding the war in Yemen, questions begin to emerge regarding potential U.S. casualties. Yemen claims to have destroyed several ships and aircraft, whereas the U.S. claims to have sustained no damage at all. Considering the intensity of Yemeni counterattacks, the truth is likely somewhere in between these extremes. Though quite impressive, U.S. Navy shipborne defenses are not infallible, falling prey to swarm attacks or intense concentrations of fire…the exact style of attack Yemeni forces are conducting. Yemeni targeting is primitive by comparison…but the competency crisis within the U.S. Navy is severe.
Missing sailors are unfortunately common; suicides and accidents occur quite frequently when on deployment. However, two sailors going missing at the same time is rare. It is even more rare for this to happen during a heightened state of readiness, and in the middle of combat operations when situational awareness is enhanced and complacency should be minimal.
Though this is highly speculative at this time, it is possible that the reports of missing sailors are linked to a successful Yemeni attack. It is impossible to determine in any case as ships at sea do not tend to host investigative journalists. Considering the sources, even in the rare case a U.S. Navy ship was successfully targeted, the only source for information would be the U.S. Navy itself, until the crew returned to port and had the option of leaking the information.
Historically, the DoD has been very quick to disclose casualties during operations. However, due to the highly-sensitive and political nature of this conflict, coupled with an election season, the means, motive, and opportunity to conceal damage reports has never been higher. In short, if the DoD had the desire to conceal combat actions, or more specifically combat casualties, declaring sailors “missing” is exactly how it would happen.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
RR The Wire 1730Z January 12, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 173012Z JAN 24
ICOD: 163012Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: TEXAS SEIZES BORDER CROSSING. YEMEN VOWS RETALIATION FOR STRIKES.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Following major airstrikes within Yemen, Houthi forces have vowed to retaliate. A few hours after the American and British attacks, Yemeni forces conducted an attack on a commercial shipping vessel. The attack was unsuccessful as the missile fired at the vessel missed, splashing down within 500m of the ship.
Around the region, an observable increase in rocket attacks originating from Hezbollah in Lebanon was noted last night, but no indicators of a major offensive effort are present yet.
Europe: Panic buying is underway in Sweden following statements by government officials regarding the possibility of war. Defense Minister Bohlin stated that “there could be war in Sweden”. The Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces reinforced these statements, urging the public that “On an individual level, you have to prepare yourself mentally”. AC: Though these statements are not out of the ordinary considering events in Europe, hearing such blunt admissions by high-ranking officials has been shocking for many Swedes. There are no indicators that war will break out in Sweden imminently, but as tensions remain extremely high throughout the continent, general preparedness is a prudent goal for citizens to consider.
-HomeFront-
TX: Significant developments are underway at the southern border. The State of Texas has seized land surrounding the infamous Shelby Park in Eagle Pass. TX National Guard forces have deployed in positions so as to block federal CBP agents from accessing the border. The adjacent boat launch also used by CBP is also now off limits to federal agents.
This move comes following months of federal agents cutting razor wire, removing barricades, and directly aiding and abetting illegal immigration. As a reminder, last week DHS officials confirmed that over 85% of all illegals encountered at the border are not currently being deported, but instead being released into the United States.
Washington D.C. – Congress voices objection to not approving airstrikes in a nation the U.S. is not at war with. Questions also remain following Pentagon statements that SECDEF Austin allegedly approved the strikes from his hospital bed.
Analyst Comments: Though tensions between agencies have been common at the southern US border for years, recent developments have shifted attitudes into more of an adversarial nature. As history has proven, the impacts that state vs. federal conflict can have are often underestimated before flashpoints occur. Likewise, the use of armed soldiers by both sides presents even more opportunities for substantial mistakes to be made.
Following the strikes in Yemen, the main question remains: “What happens next?”. Yemeni forces will likely repair or replace damaged facilities and equipment over the next few weeks. Calling into question the philosophical nature of an air war, it is hard to argue that even substantial targeting within a nation will be totally successful. As such, Yemen will be quick to prove that the strikes did not remove all of their combat power, and will likely increase targeting of US Navy vessels in the region. Commercial shipping companies will likely be hesitant to resume operations as one airstrike is not likely to reduce Yemeni capabilities enough for ships to become confident in transiting the Red Sea. Especially considering the Houthis are now overly motivated to carry out strikes on commercial shipping, to reaffirm their military dominance in the region.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
RR The Wire 2230Z January 11, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223011Z JAN 24
ICOD: 213011Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: IRAN RE-HIJACKS OIL TANKER. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN EUROPE.
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-International Events-
Middle East: The M/V ST NIKOLAS (an oil tanker bound for Turkey) was hijacked by Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz, approximately 50 NM north of Oman. AC: There is more to this incident than meets the eye. This vessel previously went by a different name, the M/V SUEZ RAJAN, and was seized by the U.S. in 2022 for shipping Iranian oil in violation of sanctions. After waiting for the vessel to onload a payload of oil from Iraq, Iranian forces re-captured the vessel, along with the cargo of oil.
South America: Widespread military mobilization continues in Ecuador following the cartel violence that spread throughout the country several days ago.
Europe: Protests continue in Germany, Spain, Poland, Denmark, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and many other European nations demonstrating support or denouncement of a variety of issues. In addition to the pro-Palestine demonstrations which have become regular throughout Europe, many protests include demonstrations of solidarity with the farmer protests in Germany.
Red Sea/HOA: Conflict continues as before. Almost all commercial shipping destined for western nations remains committed to the Cape route, while local traffic through the Red Sea remains largely unaffected. AC: Though entirely unconfirmed rumor ATT, talks are reportedly underway among coalition forces that may involve conducting strikes within Yemen.
Analyst Comments: From the very beginning of the Red Sea Crisis, the elephant in the room has been the use of force within Yemen. As it has become clear that international shipping companies have no faith in the defenses provided by the US Navy, alternative plans have likely been on the table before OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN even began. However, conducting any strike (even limited strikes on launch sites) will have a direct impact on the fighting in Gaza. As Hezbollah has increasingly become more actively involved in the north, widening the conflict into Yemeni territory will almost certainly accelerate the pace of the Gaza War.
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Analyst: S2A
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RR The Wire 2230Z January 10, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223010Z JAN 24
ICOD: 213010Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: SITUATION IN ECUADOR REMAINS TENSE. ATTACKS CONTINUE IN RED SEA. TUNNEL SYSTEM DISCOVERED IN NEW YORK.
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-International Events-
South America: Situation in Ecuador remains tense as military forces begin mobilization in most major cities. The initial hostilities have subsided following this mobilization, but sporadic gunfire and explosions continue to be reported in most major cities.
Europe: Farmer protests continue in Germany. As preliminary reports expected, this nationwide protest is one of the largest in Europe’s history, and has been met with widespread support from locals, despite causing significant transportation issues.
Red Sea/HOA: Impacts to western shipping continue as before. Yesterday, Yemeni forces conducted a complex attack on US Naval vessels and commercial shipping, using 18x drones, 2 ASCMs, and one ballistic missile. All were intercepted by coalition Naval vessels in the area.
-HomeFront-
NY: Controversy emerges surrounding events at the Chabad Lubavitch World Headquarters in Crown Heights, Brooklyn. Several days ago, viral content on social media emerged as unrest broke out upon city officials attempting to fill in a secret tunnel network beneath the facility. AC: As this is a highly controversial topic, accounts vary as to the origin, usage, contents, and extent of this tunnel system. However, most accounts so far suggest most of the digging was conducted relatively recently. Public works officials have not provided mapping data of how extensive the underground system is, but many local reports indicate structural integrity issues in the surrounding properties.
NY: James Madison High School was evacuated of students in order to serve as housing for illegal immigrants. Students will reportedly be attending classes remotely while the facility is being used to house approximately 2,000 illegals. Authorities claim this move is temporary due to severe weather conditions.
Washington D.C. – Correction to previous Wire: SECDEF Austin has prostate cancer, not pancreatic as previously reported. Further details released by Pentagon officials indicate Austin and his staff deliberately withheld most details surrounding his hospitalization. For instance, his Deputy was only told about his hospitalization two days after assuming command. White House staff were also not informed that Austin was undergoing a procedure that required general anesthesia, nor was the White House informed that the SECDEF had transferred command to his Deputy.
Analyst Comments: As SECDEF Austin has not been seen by the public for over a week, doubts begin to emerge following the Pentagon’s conflicting reports on his status. Based on interactions with the press, the White House only learned of the incident through media coverage, indicating that the POTUS going 7 days without speaking to the SECDEF is culturally viewed as normal.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z January 08, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233008Z JAN 24
ICOD: 223008Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: SECDEF AUSTIN CONTINUES HOSPITALIZATION FOR MYSTERY ILLNESS.
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-International Events-
Europe: Widespread protests begin in Germany in response to a variety of taxation and policy issues. So far, significant traffic disruptions have been reported in Berlin as the largely farmer-driven protest begins in earnest.
-HomeFront-
USA: Following the depressurization incident experienced by Alaskan Flight 1282, mass inspections of the Boeing 737 Max 9 platform have been underway for a few days. So far, United Airlines has reported finding loose bolts on several of their aircraft, in the same section of the aircraft that failed on Flight 1282.
TX: Developing reports indicate that a few minutes ago, an explosion occurred at the Sandman Hotel in Fort Worth. So far, many injuries have been reported. AC: Very early reports indicate this may have been the result of a gas leak, but as the situation is still developing, few details have been confirmed as of this report.
Washington D.C.: Further details regarding the hospitalization of SECDEF Lloyd Austin raise concerns within the National Command Authority. Details are also highly contradictory; originally Pentagon reports stated that Austin was hospitalized due to complications from a routine elective procedure. Now, details emerge that Austin was hospitalized in the ICU of Walter Reed National Military Medical Center on New Years Day after suffering “severe pain”, strongly indicating the “elective procedure” detail was an outright lie. Additionally, Pentagon officials originally stated that the Deputy Secretary of Defense, Kathleen Hicks, was briefed on the situation and command was properly transferred to her during Austin’s hospitalization. Now, details emerge that Hicks had no idea of the severity of the hospitalization, and was actually on vacation at the time of the incident.
Analyst Comments: Though deception events surrounding powerful government officials are not new, the Office of the Secretary of Defense is not a random cabinet position. The SECDEF has a direct role to play in the use of strategic weapons. The POTUS, VPOTUS, and SECDEF must all unanimously concur on the release of nuclear weapons, for instance. Much political rhetoric surrounds the cognitive abilities of a Commander in Chief specifically with regards to the use of nuclear weapons, with good reason. However, one of the men who also has to concur with the POTUS’ orders went missing for four days, and the staff of his Deputy knew nothing about it. As such, this is no minor game of hooky. Even more concerning are the basic questions surrounding who was acting as SECDEF for several days, and what actions the staff officers of the SECDEF and acting-SECDEF undertook during this crisis-of-command.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1630Z January 06, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 163006Z JAN 24
ICOD: 153006Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: MAERSK AGAIN SUSPENDS SHIPPING IN RED SEA.
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-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Following the successful attack on the M/V HANGZHOU last week, Maersk announced a temporary pause of shipping through the Red Sea. Overnight, Maersk has announced an indefinite extension to the shipping pause in response to the realization that OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is not effective, despite best efforts.
AC: This strongly indicates what has been obvious for several days; that Maersk never seriously committed to returning traffic to the Red Sea, and instead gaslit investors into thinking that everything was fine. The fact that one of their first ships to resume travel was successfully struck with a cruise missile also indicates that naval forces in the region are not capable of providing enough missile defense to make travel viable for commercial shipping. Though details are hard to verify, Amazon, Walmart, and IKEA are among the companies already reportedly experiencing supply shortages due to the logistical problems created by the Red Sea Crisis.
-HomeFront-
USA: SECDEF Lloyd Austin has been hospitalized since Monday following alleged complications from an unknown elective procedure. This was disclosed to the public last night, approximately four days after the event first occurred. No further details are available at this time.
CA: Alaskan Airlines Flight 1282 bound for Ontario, California experienced an uncontrolled depressurization incident when one of the aircraft doors blew out mid-flight. No word yet on any passenger injuries.
Analyst Comments:
Though rapid depressurization incidents are rare, this incident is even more concerning as the aircraft was a Boeing 737-9 MAX, and is one of the newer aircraft in Alaska’s fleet. In response to this high-profile incident, Alaska has announced the grounding of all 737 MAX 9 aircraft in their fleet. As a reminder, Boeing’s 737 MAX program has been fraught with controversy over the past 2-3 years following multiple fatal crashes (most of which involved the new MCAS system, and not structural integrity issues). In November of 2020, the FAA revoked Boeing’s authority to issue certificates of airworthiness for this model of aircraft. Boeing was also fined by the FAA in 2021 for “exerting undue pressure” on aircraft inspectors.
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Analyst: S2A
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