//The Wire Weekly Rollup//Febrero 4-10, 2024//

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-Eventos Internacionales-

Mar Rojo/HOA: Esta semana el conflicto se intensificó en forma de ataques más sustanciales, el aumento de los ataques aéreos de EE.UU. en Yemen, y supuestamente nuevos sistemas de armas. A lo largo de la semana, el CENTCOM confirmó que las fuerzas estadounidenses se enfrentaron regularmente a vehículos de superficie no tripulados (USV) que supuestamente se estaban preparando para un ataque. No se facilitaron más detalles sobre este presunto sistema de armamento recién desplegado. El martes, las fuerzas Houthi continuaron sus ataques contra el transporte marítimo comercial, dirigidos contra dos buques de carga. El M/V STAR NASIA fue blanco de varios misiles de crucero que impactaron cerca del buque causando daños menores. El M/V MORNING TIDE también fue blanco de tres misiles de crucero sin éxito.

Oriente Medio: La situación en Gaza, que se ha deteriorado considerablemente en las últimas semanas, se ha agravado tras el aumento de las tensiones entre Israel y Egipto. Estas tensiones se producen mientras la retórica israelí indica cada vez más operaciones inminentes en el corredor Philadelphi, en la frontera egipcia. El jueves por la tarde, fuentes israelíes anunciaron el inicio de operaciones en Rafah, ordenando la evacuación de la ciudad antes de la invasión. Del mismo modo, en el norte, los grandes "ejercicios" militares cerca de la frontera libanesa también han exacerbado la situación, y posiblemente podrían ser un indicio de la ampliación del conflicto. En respuesta, Egipto ha desplegado múltiples batallones de la 4ª División Blindada (del 3er Ejército de Campaña) en la región fronteriza.

Europa: Las protestas de los agricultores continúan como antes. Incluidas ya más de dos docenas de naciones, las protestas y manifestaciones siguen siendo muy variables en los distintos lugares. En España y Francia, las manifestaciones son bastante cinéticas, y la policía no consigue reducir el impacto de las acciones de los manifestantes.

Suiza: Un solicitante de asilo iraní de 32 años, armado con un hacha, tomó como rehenes a 15 personas en un tren en Yverdon el miércoles por la noche. Tras varias horas de negociación, el asaltante fue abatido por la policía al entrar en el tren. Ningún rehén resultó herido.

-HomeFront-

CA: El miércoles por la mañana temprano un helicóptero USMC CH-53E Super Stallion desapareció en tránsito desde la Base de la Fuerza Aérea de Creech en Nevada a la Estación Aérea del Cuerpo de Marines de Miramar. Los esfuerzos SAR fueron difíciles debido a las condiciones meteorológicas y el terreno accidentado en las proximidades de la última posición reportada de la aeronave. El jueves, los equipos de rescate localizaron el lugar del accidente en Pine Valley y recuperaron los restos de los 5 miembros de la tripulación. No se han facilitado más detalles sobre la causa o el lugar exacto del accidente.

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Comentarios de los analistas: En 2024, una "línea roja" emitida por un Estado árabe no significa demasiado, pero la respuesta egipcia a la situación en Rafah dependerá en gran medida de las acciones de Israel. Las fuerzas egipcias ya han desplegado algunas docenas de tanques en la región fronteriza, pero hay pocos indicios de que Egipto pretenda iniciar un conflicto, a pesar de las afirmaciones anteriores. Sin embargo, dado que Estados Unidos ha enviado al director de la CIA a realizar otra visita a Egipto, es probable que la llegada del presagio de nada bueno aumente las tensiones como se pretende.

Un factor que complica las cosas es la caracterización de las tensiones entre Israel y el mundo árabe. Por ejemplo, a primera vista, las relaciones con todos los Estados árabes se resintieron debido a la ocupación israelí de Gaza. Sin embargo, entre bastidores (y lejos de la retórica), muchos Estados árabes se han esforzado por ayudar a Israel. Por ejemplo, un proyecto conjunto entre Jordania, Arabia Saudí y los EAU incluye la creación de una ruta comercial terrestre que permita a las compañías navieras evitar la ruta comercial del Mar Rojo y facilitar la entrega de cargamentos a Israel. En los últimos días (y de forma muy discreta), se han observado buques de carga saliendo de Port Said, en Egipto, y entregando cargamento a Israel. Esta carga podría ser ayuda para Palestina, o podría ser suministros para Israel. En cualquier caso, es improbable que la situación pueda describirse de forma simple, debido a los muy diferentes intereses en conflicto presentes en los múltiples niveles de este conflicto. Esto por sí solo pone de relieve la gran complejidad de las tensiones en la región.

Analista: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//电线//2024年2月9日22时30分//

//ROUTINE//

//布鲁夫：加沙局势不断恶化。 农民抗议仍在继续。

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-国际事件

中东： 加沙局势在过去几周严重恶化，随着以色列和埃及之间紧张局势的加剧而变得日益严重。 这些紧张局势是由于以色列的言论越来越多地表明即将在靠近埃及边境的地区开展行动。 今天下午，以色列方面宣布在拉法开始行动，命令在入侵之前撤离该市。 同样在北部，黎巴嫩边境附近的大规模军事 "演习 "也加剧了局势，这可能是冲突扩大的迹象。

欧洲： 农民抗议一如既往。 目前，包括二十多个国家在内，不同地区的抗议和示威活动仍然千差万别。 在西班牙和法国，示威活动相当激烈，警方基本上无法有效减少抗议者行动的影响。 在意大利，示威活动持续不断，而在威尔士，随着抗议活动的开始，示威活动仍然相当温和。

瑞士： 昨晚，一名 32 岁的伊朗庇护申请者手持斧头，在伊佛东的一列火车上劫持了 15 名人质。 经过几个小时的谈判，袭击者被冲出火车的警察击毙。 在这次事件中，没有人质受伤。

-首页前沿

夏威夷：大岛发生 6.3 级地震。 目前尚无其他消息。

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分析师评论： 尽管在战争的这个阶段，信息战已经变得令人咋舌，但以色列占领费城走廊的意图却非常明显。 继今天下午宣布下令疏散拉法市居民之后，以色列占领该市的意图已昭然若揭。 这两起事件都被称为埃及的 "红线 "问题。 在北方，各种迹象和警告不断增加，表明以色列可能在黎巴嫩采取行动。 据观察，以色列在北部边界沿线集结了大量部队，但目前还不清楚这是否是一种教科书式的军事欺骗战术（可能是佯攻，更可能是显示）。 虽然在以色列绝大多数部队都陷入城市战的情况下开辟更多地理上对立的战线通常不符合良好的军事战略，但内塔尼亚胡有可能咬牙切齿，意图迫使美国更直接地介入。 另一种可能是，以色列知道与黎巴嫩和/或埃及开战将带来彻底的破坏，因此将这一威胁作为获得更多支持的一种方式。 无论如何，这都是一场严重的赌博。

分析师 S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1900Z February 8, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: USMC HELICOPTER FOUND IN CALIFORNIA, NO SURVIVORS REPORTED.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: The U.S. conducted multiple airstrikes in Baghdad overnight, targeting senior leadership of local Kataib Hezbollah brigades. This is a continuation of the sporadic strikes that have been conducted in the region since the attack on the US Tower 22 base in Jordan.

Far East: Taiwanese and American tensions with China have escalated following the quiet announcement that the U.S. will permanently station Special Forces troops at observation posts on the islands of Kinmen and Matsu. These troops will be supporting the Taiwanese 101st Amphibious Reconnaissance Battalion.

Europe: Widespread protests continue as before. In Spain, demonstrators have begun blocking distribution centers for grocery store chains affiliated with the climate agenda. This follows protesters in France using agricultural equipment to dig up the pavement in grocery store parking lots that have pledged support for climate policies.

-HomeFront-

CA: The search has concluded for TIGER11, the CH-53E that went down early yesterday morning. Rescue teams have located the crash site in Pine Valley, and have begun recovering the remains of all 5 crew members. No further details have been provided on the cause or exact location of the crash.

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Analyst Comments: Despite much thought to the contrary, Taiwan is not merely one island many miles off the coast of mainland China. Taiwan has claimed several of the very small islands immediately off the coast of the mainland. For instance, Kinmen Island is located in the heart of Weitou Bay, which is host to a major Chinese logistics hub and the nearby city of Xiamen. The Mashan Observation Post (where US Forces are stationed) is literally two miles from the Chinese mainland. For reference, Ellis Island is about a mile from Manhattan. Though this observation post has been operational for many years (as a propaganda broadcast station), the public admittance of a permanent US presence will likely lead to increased tensions in the region.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1900Z 8 de febrero de 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: HELICOPTERO DEL USMC ENCONTRADO EN CALIFORNIA, NO SE REPORTAN SOBREVIVIENTES//.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-Eventos Internacionales-

Oriente Medio: Estados Unidos llevó a cabo múltiples ataques aéreos en Bagdad durante la noche, dirigidos contra altos mandos de las brigadas locales de Kataib Hezbolá. Se trata de una continuación de los ataques esporádicos que se han llevado a cabo en la región desde el ataque a la base estadounidense Tower 22 en Jordania.

Extremo Oriente: Las tensiones de Taiwán y Estados Unidos con China han aumentado tras el discreto anuncio de que Estados Unidos estacionará permanentemente tropas de las Fuerzas Especiales en puestos de observación en las islas de Kinmen y Matsu. Estas tropas apoyarán al 101º Batallón de Reconocimiento Anfibio taiwanés.

Europa: Continúan las protestas generalizadas. En España, los manifestantes han comenzado a bloquear los centros de distribución de las cadenas de tiendas de comestibles afiliadas a la agenda climática. En Francia, los manifestantes utilizan maquinaria agrícola para desenterrar el pavimento de los aparcamientos de los supermercados que se han comprometido a apoyar las políticas climáticas.

-

CA: Ha concluido la búsqueda del TIGER11, el CH-53E que se estrelló ayer por la mañana temprano. Los equipos de rescate han localizado el lugar del accidente en Pine Valley, y han comenzado a recuperar los restos de los 5 miembros de la tripulación. No se han facilitado más detalles sobre la causa o el lugar exacto del accidente.

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Comentarios de los analistas: A pesar de lo que se piensa, Taiwán no es sólo una isla situada a muchos kilómetros de la costa de China continental. Taiwán ha reclamado varias de las pequeñas islas situadas frente a la costa de China continental. Por ejemplo, la isla de Kinmen está situada en el corazón de la bahía de Weitou, que alberga un importante centro logístico chino y la cercana ciudad de Xiamen. El Puesto de Observación de Mashan (donde están estacionadas las fuerzas estadounidenses) está literalmente a tres kilómetros de la China continental. Como referencia, la isla Ellis está a una milla de Manhattan. Aunque este puesto de observación ha estado operativo durante muchos años (como estación de transmisión de propaganda), la admisión pública de una presencia permanente de EE.UU. probablemente provocará un aumento de las tensiones en la región.

Analista: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1900Z 2024年2月8日//

//ROUTINE//

//布鲁夫：美国海军陆战队直升机在加利福尼亚被发现，无生还者报告。

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-国际事件

中东： 美国一夜之间对巴格达进行了多次空袭，目标是当地真主党卡提卜旅的高层领导。 这是自约旦美军第 22 号塔基地遭袭以来在该地区进行的零星空袭的继续。

远东： 美国悄然宣布将在金门岛和马祖岛的观察哨永久驻扎特种部队后，台湾和美国与中国的紧张关系升级。 这些部队将为台湾第 101 两栖侦察营提供支援。

欧洲： 广泛的抗议活动一如既往。 在西班牙，示威者开始封锁与气候议程有关的杂货连锁店的配送中心。 在此之前，法国的抗议者使用农用设备挖开了承诺支持气候政策的杂货店停车场的路面。

-家庭前线

加州：昨天清晨坠毁的 CH-53E 飞机 TIGER11 的搜寻工作已经结束。 救援队已找到位于松树谷的坠机地点，并开始回收所有 5 名机组人员的遗体。 目前还没有关于坠机原因或确切地点的更多细节。

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分析师评论： 尽管很多人认为台湾与中国大陆海岸相距甚远，但台湾并不仅仅是一个岛屿。 台湾对紧邻大陆海岸的几个非常小的岛屿提出了主权要求。 例如，金门岛位于围头湾的中心，而围头湾是中国主要的物流中心，附近还有厦门市。 马山观察哨（美军驻扎地）距离中国大陆仅两英里。 作为参考，埃利斯岛距离曼哈顿约一英里。 尽管该观察哨已运作多年（作为宣传广播站），但美国公开承认其永久存在可能会导致该地区的紧张局势加剧。

分析师 S2A1

//END REPORT//

https://github.com/s2underground/GhostNet

//The Wire//1730Z February 7, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: HOUTHI ATTACKS CONTINUE. USMC HELICOPTER MISSING NEAR SAN DIEGO.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-HomeFront-

CA: A USMC CH-53E Super Stallion helicopter has gone missing in transit from Creech Air Force Base in Nevada to Marine Corps Air Station Miramar. SAR efforts are underway as an initial search of the last reported position yielded no results. Ground crews have also been delayed due to the extreme weather conditions (and rugged terrain) in the area that the aircraft went missing in.

AC: According to open-source ADS-B tracking data, TIGER11 was last observed flying over Cleveland National Forest IVO 11SNS5380026563, cruising at a speed of 113 kts, on a bearing of 323 degrees. Though it is too early to determine precise details regarding this incident, in the interest of expediency, it is possible that ADS-B data indicates the CH-53E was on a collision course with a ridgeline IVO 11SNS5363826791. Again, not knowing details, a possible search area is likely to include the drainage on the following side of the ridge, IVO 11SNS5340427122, as well as the wooded area on the valley floor IVO 11SNS5320427393.

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Houthi forces continue their attacks on commercial shipping, targeting two cargo vessels yesterday. The M/V STAR NASIA was targeted by several cruise missiles which impacted near the ship causing minor damage. The M/V MORNING TIDE was also targeted with three cruise missiles unsuccessfully.

The Royal Navy has decided to withdraw the HMS DIAMOND from theatre. Official statements suggest this is for maintenance reasons following a few months of combat service. The DIAMOND was the only Royal Navy vessel contributing to the American OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN and will be replaced by the HMS RICHMOND.

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Analyst Comments: As the timing of the HMS DIAMOND’s replacement appears to be early, speculation remains as to the true reason of this replacement. Yemeni forces claim to have damaged the vessel, owing to the early withdrawal. However, Houthi forces claim to sink almost every vessel in theatre, so this source is unreliable at best and no information corroborates these claims. What is more likely is that the toll paid by brief combat service against a largely insurgent force using improvised weapons is more than the Type 45 Destroyer program can maintain, especially following years of scandal related to their combat effectiveness.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1730Z 7 de febrero de 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: CONTINÚAN LOS ATAQUES HOUTHI. HELICOPTERO USMC DESAPARECIDO CERCA DE SAN DIEGO.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-HomeFront-

CA: Un helicóptero USMC CH-53E Super Stallion ha desaparecido en tránsito desde la Base de la Fuerza Aérea de Creech en Nevada a la Estación Aérea del Cuerpo de Marines de Miramar. Los esfuerzos SAR están en marcha como una búsqueda inicial de la última posición reportada no dio resultados. Los equipos de tierra también se han retrasado debido a las condiciones meteorológicas extremas (y al terreno accidentado) de la zona en la que desapareció la aeronave.

AC: De acuerdo con los datos de seguimiento ADS-B de fuente abierta, TIGER11 fue observado por última vez volando sobre el Bosque Nacional de Cleveland IVO 11SNS5380026563, a una velocidad de crucero de 113 kts, en un rumbo de 323 grados. Aunque es demasiado pronto para determinar detalles precisos sobre este incidente, en aras de la conveniencia, es posible que los datos ADS-B indiquen que el CH-53E estaba en rumbo de colisión con una cresta IVO 11SNS5363826791. De nuevo, sin conocer los detalles, es probable que una posible zona de búsqueda incluya el drenaje del lado siguiente de la cresta, IVO 11SNS5340427122, así como la zona boscosa del fondo del valle IVO 11SNS5320427393.

-Eventos internacionales-

Mar Rojo/HOA: Las fuerzas Houthi continúan sus ataques contra la navegación comercial, teniendo como objetivo dos buques de carga ayer. El M/V STAR NASIA fue blanco de varios misiles de crucero que impactaron cerca del buque causando daños menores. El M/V MORNING TIDE también fue blanco de tres misiles de crucero sin éxito.

La Royal Navy ha decidido retirar el HMS DIAMOND del teatro de operaciones. Las declaraciones oficiales sugieren que se debe a razones de mantenimiento tras unos meses de servicio en combate. El DIAMOND era el único buque de la Royal Navy que contribuía a la OPN estadounidense PROSPERITY GUARDIAN y será sustituido por el HMS RICHMOND.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Comentarios de los analistas: Como el momento de la sustitución del HMS DIAMOND parece prematuro, se sigue especulando sobre la verdadera razón de esta sustitución. Las fuerzas yemeníes afirman haber dañado el buque, debido a la retirada anticipada. Sin embargo, las fuerzas Houthi afirman hundir casi todos los buques en el teatro de operaciones, por lo que esta fuente es poco fiable en el mejor de los casos y no hay información que corrobore estas afirmaciones. Lo que es más probable es que el peaje pagado por un breve servicio de combate contra una fuerza mayoritariamente insurgente que utiliza armas improvisadas sea más de lo que el programa de Destructores Tipo 45 puede mantener, especialmente tras años de escándalos relacionados con su eficacia en combate.

Analista: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//电讯报//2024年2月7日17时30分//

//ROUTINE//

//布鲁夫：胡塞武装继续发动袭击。 美国海军陆战队直升机在圣地亚哥附近失踪。

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-首页前线

加利福尼亚州：一架美国海军陆战队 CH-53E 超级种马直升机在从内华达州克里奇空军基地飞往海军陆战队米拉马尔空军基地的途中失踪。 由于对最后报告位置的初步搜索没有结果，搜救工作正在进行中。 由于飞机失踪地区的极端天气条件（和崎岖地形），地面人员的工作也被延误。

AC: 根据公开来源的 ADS-B 跟踪数据，TIGER11 最后一次被观测到飞越克利夫兰国家森林 IVO 11SNS5380026563，巡航速度 113 kts，方位 323 度。 虽然现在确定这一事件的确切细节还为时过早，但从权宜之计出发，ADS-B 数据显示 CH-53E 可能与山脊线 IVO 11SNS5363826791 相撞。 同样，在不知道细节的情况下，可能的搜索区域可能包括山脊另一侧的排水沟 IVO 11SNS5340427122，以及谷底的林区 IVO 11SNS5320427393。

-国际事件

红海/HOA：胡塞武装继续袭击商业航运，昨天以两艘货船为目标。 多枚巡航导弹击中了 "STAR NASIA "号商船，造成轻微损坏。 M/V MORNING TIDE 也遭到三枚巡航导弹袭击，但没有成功。

英国皇家海军已决定从战区撤回 "钻石 "号。 官方声明称，这是在服役几个月后出于维护的原因。 钻石号 "是英国皇家海军唯一一艘为美国 "和平卫士 "号（OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN）服役的舰艇，它将被 "里奇蒙德号"（HMS RICHMOND）取代。

-----END TEARLINE-----

分析师评论： 由于 "钻石 "号被替换的时间似乎较早，人们仍在猜测替换的真正原因。 也门部队声称，由于提前撤离，该舰已受损。 然而，胡塞武装声称几乎击沉了战区内的所有船只，因此这一消息来源充其量只是不可靠的，也没有信息证实这些说法。 更有可能的情况是，面对一支主要使用简易武器的叛乱部队，45 型驱逐舰项目无法维持短暂的战斗力，尤其是在其战斗力丑闻持续多年之后。

分析师 S2A1

//END REPORT//

#texas #alaska #news

//电线//2024年2月5日21时30分//

//ROUTINE//

//布鲁夫：尽管有所改善，但边境危机仍在继续//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-国际事件

英国： 国王查尔斯三世被诊断出患有癌症。 白金汉宫在声明中没有透露癌症的类型。 目前尚无进一步信息。

红海/HOA： 美国对胡塞武装地点的袭击越来越频繁。 然而，由于没有公开情报或 BDA 产品，美国的袭击效果尚不清楚。

-前线之家

德克萨斯州：伊格尔帕斯的南部边境继续进行大量加固工作。 在昨天发布的一份新闻声明中，阿拉斯加陆军国民警卫队透露了根据联邦第 10 章命令向南部边境部署有限兵力的计划。 AC: 其他声明显示，此次部署涉及的兵力很少（只有几架直升机和辅助人员），而且与 "孤星行动 "并不协调。

-----END TEARLINE-----

分析员评论： 在美国南部边境实地采访的独立记者继续记录基本开放的边境。 得克萨斯州极力展示其为确保引人注目的边境口岸安全所做的巨大努力，但却难以阻止非法移民的浪潮，即使离鹰隘口的障碍只有几英里之遥。

分析师 S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z February 5, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: BORDER CRISIS CONTINUES DESPITE IMPROVMENTS//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

United Kingdom: King Charles III has been diagnosed with cancer. In the statements provided by Buckingham Palace the type of cancer was not disclosed. No further information at this time.

Red Sea/HOA: U.S. targeting of Houthi sites continues to become more regular. However, as no intelligence or BDA products have been made public, the effectiveness of American targeting is unclear.

-HomeFront-

TX: Substantial fortification efforts continue along the southern border in Eagle Pass. In a press statement released yesterday, the Alaska Army National Guard has revealed plans to deploy limited forces to the southern border under federal Title 10 orders. AC: Additional statements indicate that this deployment involves few troops (only a couple of helicopters and support staff), and is not in coordination with Operation Lone Star.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Independent journalists on the ground at the southern US border continue to document the largely open border. Texas, being highly motivated to show the grand efforts to secure high-profile border crossings, struggles to stem the tide of illegal immigration even just a few miles from the obstacles in Eagle Pass.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z 3 de febrero de 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: LA BDA INICIAL DE LAS HUELGAS AMERICANAS ES DECEPCIONANTE//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-Eventos Internacionales-

Europa: Un ataque con arma blanca en París hirió ayer a tres personas en la estación de tren Gare de Lyon. Al parecer, el agresor es un refugiado de Mali.

Oriente Próximo: La evaluación inicial de los ataques estadounidenses en Siria indica pocos daños. Las importantes advertencias dadas a las fuerzas iraníes también se saldaron con muy pocas bajas (alrededor de un par de docenas de muertos en el primer recuento de las fuerzas locales).

Mar Rojo/HOA: Los ataques de los Houthi contra buques comerciales y navales continúan en toda la región. Ayer, funcionarios del CENTCOM declararon que se llevaron a cabo ataques contra 4x objetivos en Yemen, y aviones del USS EISENHOWER CSG derribaron 7x drones sobre el Mar Rojo. Hoy se han llevado a cabo 6 ataques en Yemen, supuestamente contra misiles preparados para ser lanzados contra la navegación en la región.

-HomeFront-

NY: Las autoridades municipales han lanzado una campaña de 53 millones de dólares para distribuir fondos directamente a los inmigrantes ilegales a través de las Tarjetas de Respuesta Inmediata, es decir, tarjetas de crédito de prepago. Al igual que la mayoría de los demás programas de asistencia social, las tarjetas se rellenarán con fondos cada mes, pero a diferencia de las prestaciones preexistentes del SNAP, la única rendición de cuentas por la financiación en virtud de este nuevo proceso implica que los ilegales firmen documentación en la que se comprometen a utilizar las tarjetas únicamente para alimentos.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Comentarios de los analistas: Aunque comparar el número de municiones (en lugar del tonelaje y/o tipo de munición) no es la descripción más exacta de la potencia de combate, desde el 7 de octubre se han registrado 159 ataques contra fuerzas estadounidenses en todo Oriente Medio, mientras que anoche sólo se lanzaron 125 municiones individuales. Como referencia, Israel ha estado lanzando aproximadamente 1.000 bombas al día en Gaza. Por lo tanto, los ataques observados hasta ahora parecen en gran medida ineficaces para reducir el poder de combate de las fuerzas proxy iraníes en la región. Además, no está claro si estos ataques son representativos de una represalia puntual o si la campaña de mayor duración que se insinuó anteriormente llegará a buen puerto. Tal y como están las cosas, los ataques de represalia pueden estar apenas por encima de la línea de base de actividad para la región, y pueden ser difíciles de discernir de los esfuerzos rutinarios de selección de objetivos llevados a cabo por las fuerzas de combate.

Analista: S2A1

//INFORME//

//电线//2024年2月3日21时30分//

//ROUTINE//

//布鲁夫：美国罢工的初步BDA令人失望//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-国际事件

欧洲： 昨天，巴黎里昂火车站发生一起持刀袭击事件，造成三人受伤。 据报道，袭击者是一名来自马里的难民。

中东： 对美国在叙利亚的袭击进行的初步评估显示几乎没有造成破坏。 向伊朗军队发出的大量警告也只造成了极少的人员伤亡（据当地军队初步统计，约有几十人死亡）。

红海/HOA：胡塞武装继续在整个地区袭击商船和海军船只。 昨天，中央司令部官员称对也门境内的 4x 个目标实施了打击，美国海军 "艾森豪威尔 "号护卫舰上的飞机在红海上空击落了 7x 架无人机。 今天，对也门进行了 6 次打击，据称是为了对付针对该地区航运发射的导弹。

-首页前沿

纽约：市政府官员发起了一项耗资 5300 万美元的活动，通过即时反应卡（即预付信用卡）直接向非法移民发放资金。 与大多数其他福利项目一样，该卡将每月充值，但与之前存在的 SNAP 福利不同的是，在这一新程序下，资金的唯一问责制涉及非法移民签署文件，承诺仅将该卡用于食品。

-----END TEARLINE-----

分析师评论： 虽然比较弹药数量（而不是吨位和/或弹药类型）并不是对战斗力最准确的描述，但自 10 月 7 日以来，整个中东地区已经报告了 159 起针对美军的袭击，而昨晚仅投掷了 125 枚单个弹药。 作为参考，以色列每天在加沙大约投掷 1,000 枚炸弹。 因此，迄今为止观察到的袭击似乎在很大程度上未能有效削弱伊朗在该地区的代理部队的战斗力。 此外，目前还不清楚这次袭击是一次性报复行动，还是之前暗示的长期行动。 从目前的情况来看，报复性打击可能只是勉强超过了该地区的活动基线，而且可能很难从作战部队进行的常规瞄准行动中分辨出来。

分析师： S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z February 3, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: INITIAL BDA OF AMERICAN STRIKES UNDERWHELMING//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: A stabbing attack in Paris wounded three at Gare de Lyon railway station yesterday. The assailant is reportedly a refugee from Mali.

Middle East: Initial assessment of the American strikes in Syria indicates little damage. The substantial warnings given to Iranian forces also resulted in very few casualties (around a couple dozen deaths at first count by local forces).

Red Sea/HOA: Houthi targeting of both commercial and Naval vessels continues throughout the region. Yesterday, CENTCOM officials stated that strikes were conducted against 4x targets in Yemen, and aircraft from the USS EISENHOWER CSG shot down 7x drones over the Red Sea. Today, 6x strikes were conducted in Yemen, allegedly against missiles staged to launch against shipping in the region.

-HomeFront-

NY: City officials have launched a $53 million campaign to distribute funds directly to illegal immigrants via Immediate Response Cards, i.e. prepaid credit cards. Like most other welfare programs, cards will be refilled with funds every month, but unlike pre-existing SNAP benefits, the only accountability for funding under this new process involves illegals signing documentation promising to only use the cards for food.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though comparing numbers of munitions (instead of tonnage and/or munition type) is not the most accurate depiction of combat power, 159 attacks on US forces throughout the Middle East have been reported since Oct 7, whereas only 125 individual munitions were dropped last night. For reference, Israel has been dropping roughly 1,000 bombs per day in Gaza. As such, the strikes observed so far appear to largely be ineffective at reducing the combat power of Iranian proxy forces in the region. Additionally, it is unclear as to if this targeting is representative of a one-shot retaliation, or if the longer-duration campaign hinted at previously will come to fruition. As it stands, retaliatory strikes may be barely above the baseline of activity for the region, and may be difficult to discern from the routine targeting efforts undertaken by combat forces.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z February 2, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: U.S. BEGINS RETALIATORY STRIKES IN SYRIA//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: Farmer protests continue to cause widespread disruptions throughout much of mainland western Europe. Major roads remain blocked surrounding government buildings in Brussels, Paris, and Arnhem as demonstrations become more organized and widespread. International border crossings between many European nations have also been blockaded by demonstrators as a result of climate agenda trade policies. Last night, mass farmer protests began in earnest in Ireland, contributing to the millions of people demonstrating against the climate agenda throughout Europe.

Middle East: American forces have begun retaliatory strikes against Iranian proxy forces in Syria. So far, bombings have been reported near Deir ez-Zor and al-Mayadeen, and limited strikes have been reported in Abu Kamal. CENTCOM has confirmed that 85 targets were struck throughout Syria.

-HomeFront-

NY: A construction worker was killed when a basement collapsed during a construction project in Brooklyn. No further information at this time.

TX: Border posture continues as before, with TXNG continuing to improve obstacles along the border. Florida has authorized the deployment of FLNG resources to assist with border fortifications, along with Florida State Guard (FLSG) forces, which are being deployed for the first time. Roughly 1,000 FLSG troops are being deployed to Texas.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The value of citizen-monitored ADS-B receivers has been demonstrated by the latest strikes against Iranian targets in Syria. Even though operational prudence would obviously result in bomber aircraft turning off transponders, this did not happen. The electronic signatures presented by dozens of military aircraft in the lead up to this attack was obvious to anyone who bothered to open up a flight tracking app. Additionally, press releases from defense officials confirmed that bombers were in the air, and on the way to their targets in Syria. Ordinarily, openly giving an adversary this much intelligence would be utter madness, but this was almost certainly done to provide Iran as much warning as possible (to avoid retaliation). The side benefit for taxpayers is that this allows the real-time monitoring of real-world operations.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2200Z February 1, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: PROTESTS CONTINUE IN EUROPE, DESPITE LACK OF MEDIA COVERAGE//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

United Kingdom: An acid attack wounds 12 people in southwest London. The attacker has been identified as 35 year old Abdul Shokoor Ezedi. The attacker remains a fugitive as a woman and her two children remain hospitalized from the attack.

Belgium: Protests intensify at the headquarters of the European Union in Brussels. Farmers protesting against the climate agenda have sought to disrupt EU summit meetings, which have been convened to provide more financial support to Ukraine.

Middle East: U.S. defense officials have confirmed that airstrikes will be conducted against Iranian groups in Iraq and Syria. AC: Letting an adversary know where military actions are going to take place is likely to result in a continuation in the decline of both the combat effectiveness and the prestige of the U.S. military. Iranian groups and “proxies” are ready for retaliation and have had many days to prepare and move forces away from where the U.S. has already confirmed strikes will take place.

-HomeFront-

IN: This afternoon the BP refinery in Whiting experienced an emergency power failure, prompting evacuations of the facility. It is unclear as to what caused the power failure, but large flares are expected to be observed at the facility as technicians vent and burn off gasses to prevent an explosion. AC: This is not particularly out of the ordinary for most industrial facilities of this size. However with increased scrutiny following the years of deliberate sabotage of critical infrastructure, suspicions come easily as to the causes of incidents like this.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Throughout Europe, food shortages have been noted at many grocery stores as products are not making it to store shelves due to demonstrations (both the demonstrations of truck drivers, and the constriction of the flow of traffic).

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z January 31, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: PROTESTS IN EUROPE ESCALATE//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: Protests in France intensified yesterday afternoon as farmers succeeded in encircling Paris, stopping traffic along all major roads into the city. Preparations are underway in Belgium, Italy, and Germany to prepare for similar ongoing demonstrations that are also becoming increasingly volatile. Mass arrests have been reported at some of the more high-profile venues targeted for demonstrations, but most authorities have struggled to stop the sheer number of people protesting.

Far East: Taiwanese Defense Forces have noted an increase in PLA activity in the Taiwan Strait over the past few days. AC: This is a slight increase in the baseline trends of Chinese activity in the region. Probably not indicative of major operations, but notable as around a dozen PLA aircraft have been violating Taiwan’s ADIZ daily for weeks.

Middle East: Preparations continue for American retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets. AC: Rhetoric among diplomats and politicians leaking information to the press indicates that the response to the Tower 22 drone strike may be more of a long-term strategic campaign rather than a limited retaliatory engagement. As any theory on this possible campaign will be purely speculative, it is possible that the rhetoric that is being made public is an attempt to set expectations for future combat operations.

-HomeFront-

OK: A natural gas pipeline experienced a blowout in the vicinity of Elmwood last night. The resulting explosion was observed by locals almost 40 miles away. Authorities have not released any details regarding the cause of the blast.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As demonstrations become more serious throughout Europe, the responses to protests will likely become more kinetic as well. In France, social tensions have become increasingly anti-government in nature. Last night, President Macron attended a royal gala hosted by the Swedish royal family as part of a state visit to Stockholm. The optics of this visit, at a time when the French are increasingly facing domestic troubles, has not been well received by demonstrators throughout the country who have drawn the links between history and this perceived “let them eat cake” moment. Similar sentiments are being expressed in Belgium, where farmer protests have been met with comparatively heavy-handed responses by authorities.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z January 30, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: U.S. AIRSTRIKES IN MIDDLE EAST LIKELY IMMINENT//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: Protests in France intensify following public outrage over taxation issues. French farmers have been protesting in earnest for months, with demonstrations reaching historic levels within the past few weeks. Demonstrations have also become increasingly kinetic, with larger disruptions becoming more common around the country.

Middle East: Preparations continue for the American retaliatory strike against Iranian targets. AC: Due to the substantial buildup of forces in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus, Iraq, and Israel, retaliatory strikes will likely begin very soon.

Red Sea/HOA: Yemeni forces continue to streamline the blockade of Western shipping. Several suspicious approaches have been reported by cargo vessels transiting the region over the past few days, but it is unclear as to if these incidents are related to Houthi targeting or if this is more a situation of routine piracy.

-HomeFront-

TX: No major changes in TXNG border posture. In Kurten, TX an explosion was reported at Feather Crest Farms, the cause of which is unknown ATT. The facility is currently burning, and local authorities expect the fire to last several days. Feather Crest Farms is an egg supplier that was recently purchased by MPS Egg Farms in Indiana, and at this facility maintains about one million egg laying hens, and employs just under 100 people.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though no one knows with any certainty as to what the US response to the Tower 22 drone strike will be, speculation of possible strikes is largely centered around Iranian bases in Syria or Naval vessels in the Red Sea or Arabian Gulf. However, as the DoD has already stated the preparations for strikes will take a few days to stage for, this strongly indicates that the plethora of strategic assets already in theatre to combat Houthi forces are not enough to carry out the retaliatory strikes the US is planning for Iranian forces or “proxies”.

Analyst: S2A

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z January 29, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: THREE U.S. SERVICE MEMBERS KILLED IN NORTHERN JORDAN, DOZENS WOUNDED//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Yesterday three American service members were killed, and 34 wounded in a kamikaze drone strike on a covert base in northern Jordan. The strike appears to have targeted a tent serving as temporary billeting for transient personnel traveling through the base.

Red Sea/HOA: The fire onboard the M/V MARLIN LUANDA has reportedly been extinguished. The vessel is being escorted by coalition warships as she attempts to make port.

-HomeFront-

TX: No major developments as Texas continues strengthening positions along the border. However, now that the crossing IVO Eagle Pass is largely closed, illegals have been observed bypassing most of the obstacles, crossing illegally into the U.S. just a few miles away from Eagle Pass where there are no barriers or efforts to stop them.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In Jordan, considering there are multiple bases in the region that are host to Special Operations, confusion persists as to the location of the base itself. There are two larger forward operating bases in the region, the more overt of which is Al-Tanf (also called At-Tanf), which is in Syria, approximately 13 miles northwest of the triple point of the Iraqi, Syrian, and Jordanian borders.

The other site is a different Tactical Base, known to the public as Tower 22, located about 15 miles away in Jordan, roughly half a mile inside the border. Officially, CENTCOM has not confirmed the name of the base that was struck, mentioning an unnamed base in “northeast Jordan”, which through process of elimination is almost certainly Tower 22.

Additionally, no independent verification of battle damage will be obtained by open-source satellite imagery as the next Sentinel 2A pass is scheduled for Feb 11. By then, American forces will have repaired or concealed the damage.

In response to the strike, substantial strategic resources have been observed moving into the Middle East theatre. It is certain that the U.S. is planning substantial airstrikes in retaliation for the targeting of At-Tanf. However, the target is less clear. Though impossible to judge at this time, it is possible that this may be the tipping point for the U.S. to conduct strikes in Iran, as several U.S. politicians have openly been advocating for.

Analyst: S2A

//END REPORT//