This is very cool, you can highlight anything on the web or in notes and create highlight notes. There could be a “highlight feed” in damus of things that people are clipping on the web or in longform notes
https://zapworthy.com/e/note1cvecn3kmtd9yhy404eaxum4tp7ffm97ga665tg5u84xkv6wmp79qsquqtc
Wow
Commercial Real Estate Is The "Boa Constrictor" That Will Crush The Economy And "Force The Fed To Restart QE"
Summary: Bank liquidity may recover, but solvency issues persist due to commercial real estate (CRE) troubles, especially in the office sector. Morgan Stanley predicts a 40% crash in CRE, with significant risks ahead. A bursting CRE bubble could lead to low growth, similar to the 2008 housing crisis aftermath.
You sure it was a logo, or was it just your head coming out of the shirt?
I’m very excited to get my new shirt.
Thank you, Sir!
Why Everything's Changing
When building an economy on top of a global settlement layer, that currency or bedrock cannot deflect. For the past 40 years, that bedrock has been the US treasury market (it's massive - tens of trillions of dollars). And for 40 years, anyone who saved their retained earnings in that bedrock saw the value continue to appreciate in buying power. Everyone knows that when bond yields go down, prices go up. The chart below showing the drop in yield (up in price) is why this form of savings worked so well for the world. However, this only works if the bedrock doesn't start to deflect. In financial terms, the bedrock of bonds will deflect if inflation cannot be controlled. As any engineer understands, if the bedrock is deflecting, EVERYTHING built upon it starts to crack and break down. Why does inflation cause the bedrock to deflect? Because investors in bonds need to have a higher yield than inflation, or else they are guaranteed to lose buying power. If inflation is 5% and the bond yields 3%, then you'll lose -2% in buying power if those yields remain persistent.
So, why are we seeing inflation? I'd argue inflation manifests itself through three main ways. The first and obvious way is just increasing the amount of monetary units in the overall system – everyone understands this one. What a lot of people don't understand is that you can add monetary units into a system, but they might not "nest" themselves in areas that most people see or expect. For example, trillions of monetary units were added into the system since 2008, and most of those monetary units "nested" themselves in the capitalization rates of stocks and bonds. You didn't see the CPI gage ever go up. But if you're a person who doesn't own stocks and bonds, well, you wouldn't see that capital appreciation in your day-to-day life. The second way is through supply destruction. Imagine you were on a remote island that was fairly self-sufficient and a tropical storm destroyed a bunch of infrastructure. Through that event, everyone on the island quickly needs to preserve and own essential supplies like energy and food. What you would find while supply chains are damaged is a bidding of prices on desirable goods and services. With enough time, as long as a free and open markets were allowed to persist, the supply chains will naturally self-correct, and prices will return to normal (as long as the other two means of creating inflation weren't exercised). Finally, the third way inflation can happen is through supply destruction caused by manipulated incentives via public policy decisions. When policymakers create incentives for growth in infrastructure, what they rarely talk about is what they AREN'T incentivizing through that action. The economy is massive, and one small incentive for sector XYZ seems harmless as a singular event. But when policy after policy is exercised by government bureaucrats, the things they AREN'T incentivized really add up and create a false sense of "free and open" markets. The next thing you know, people are incentivized (due to policy) to build things that are less efficient and less constructive to society than what a REAL free and open market would produce. If you take these policy decisions far enough and long enough without the free and open market being able to experience creative destruction, then supply chains at large become completely dysfunctional and fragile.
When we look at what happened with COVID, we literally have all three of these things playing out: manipulation of the money supply, 40 years of horrific policy decisions that have created hyper-fragile supply chains, and a global pandemic that disrupted organic activity. In addition to all of that (and maybe BECAUSE of that), countries that are net-producers are at war, or reconstructing trade agreements, with countries that are net-consumers. People might think the war between Russia and Ukraine is a localized situation, but it's actually much broader and strategic than that. In short, the net producers of the world don't want to give up their physical goods for the paper promises that net-consumers INSIST they accept as payment. The net-producers understand the bedrock is deflecting. The net-producers understand that the math behind these impaired bonds will remain impaired. Why? Because for the supply chains to actually become less fragile, the decades of poor incentives that were brought about through compounding poor policy decisions isn't going to end anytime soon. In fact, the problem is being amplified because net-consumers are trying to offset the bad policy decisions by adding more monetary units into the system (see #1 for creating inflation).
So, what CAN the world build upon that doesn't deflect? Well, anyone who follows my account probably already knows my opinion: Bitcoin. First and foremost, Bitcoin's decentralized nature ensures a robust and tamper-resistant foundation for the global economy. Unlike traditional currencies controlled by central banks and governments, Bitcoin operates on a decentralized network that is immune to political interference and manipulation. No more waiting for Jerome Powell to blink three times and watch the global markets move by $5 trillion. Next, the capped supply of 21 million coins addresses the issue of inflation that has plagued traditional currencies. With a finite supply, Bitcoin inherently resists inflationary pressures that erode the value of other currencies. This means that individuals and institutions who choose to store their wealth in Bitcoin can expect their purchasing power to be preserved over time, unlike those who rely on bonds and other assets that are vulnerable to more monetary units being added into the economy and into the hands of a chosen few. Additionally, Bitcoin transcends borders and mends the discord between net-producers and net-consumers: they no longer need to TRUST each other. The borderless and frictionless nature of Bitcoin allows for swift and cost-effective international settlements. By facilitating global trade and economic expansion, Bitcoin has the potential to usher in a new era of financial inclusion and prosperity. Finally, Bitcoin's ability to serve as a hedge against the deflection of traditional settlement layers is perhaps its most compelling attribute. As the bedrock of the global economy, it is crucial that the settlement layer remains stable and secure.
In my humble opinion, you can choose to start buying Bitcoin after thoroughly understanding the game theory and logic behind its continued appreciation in value, or you can learn by sitting back and watching others grow their buying power. Either way, you're eventually going to learn about Bitcoin, whether you like it or not. 
The state of California now gets into the home buying business.
"California to front 20% down payments with 0% interest for homebuyers with incomes up to $211,000"
“IF THE ROCKDALE AIR WAS PLAYING BASKETBALL RIGHT NOW, IT WOULD BE THE LABRON JAMES OF AIR MOLECULES!”
-Pierre Rochard while filming B roll for Riot Platforms
#[0]
FBI study confirms the obvious.
We are psychopaths.
“Dossier Says Using Terms Like "Based" And "Chad" Is A Sign Of Extremism”
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fbi-dossier-says-using-terms-based-and-chad-sign-extremism
Good morning and Happy Easter!
🤣 everyone has their nemesis, Nat.
On this day, 6 April 2023:
1 BTC = $28,000 USD
“Taleb has openly acknowledged his mistake and gone short on Bitcoin.”
https://u.today/black-swan-author-admits-his-major-bitcoin-mistake
Jobless Claims Explode Higher After Revisions.
The pace is similar to 2001.
Instead of earning fake Mario coins, companies are insert Bitcoin (sats) into mobile games. This one has garnered more than a million players.
Latin America’s Largest E-Commerce Platform To Enable Bitcoin Trading In Chile
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/mercadolibre-to-enable-bitcoin-trading-in-chile
I've been telling people Yield Curve Control (YCC) was coming, and make no mistake, the BTFP is a version of YCC. All these bonds were trading at a discount to par and this facility prompt-up their prices to par (for a year...which can be completely extended if needed).
