Check my long video today where I dive into the data of the BRICS. In that episode I show how much USA - Mr. #Trump can impose #tariffs on the world and what they can do back.
I dive into the data of the #BRICS. For the #Bitcoin community trading services with the BRICS can be more opportunities.
Check also my update on the #USAmacromodel I'm building.
Yeah I'm in Notedeck!!
Jeff thank you for all you have done showing me that prices decline for ever.
Have you seen the film “What is The Problem”?. https://youtu.be/YtFOxNbmD38
And how can we measure the global productivity increase and productivity increase of sectors of the economy, and of businesses in a world where the price is skewed?
Productivity is often measured as real gross domestic product (gdp). Per capita, per year increase.
But to get to that “real” gdp we divide the nominal value (in dollars) by the price.
The price is skewed. CPI. That doesn’t measure anything.
Should we divide everything by the “price” of Bitcoin? Gold? Oil?
Must see
This is crazy!!!
It looks like Europe has completely gone nuts.
They are trying to control Bitcoin. They are now monitoring all financial institutions, payment providers etc.
It looks like they think we are all criminals.
Who invented this “travel rule”.
We might have to go completely peer to peer with Bitcoin transactions.
nostr:npub1h0fd5xu8rfhwdkkjr78ssdhm7rdjyf97hhjqr9acwv77ux0uvf8q23kvcg Maya Parbhoe: running for Bitcoin President for Suriname!
Organized Suriname Decentralized in 2024.
nostr:npub1cj8znuztfqkvq89pl8hceph0svvvqk0qay6nydgk9uyq7fhpfsgsqwrz4u here are the numbers the European printer is producing!!
Almost a straight line up. 400 billion a year. 16 x in 44 years!!!
https://data.ecb.europa.eu/data/datasets/BSI/BSI.M.U2.Y.V.M20.X.1.U2.2300.Z01.E
Christine Lagarde’s printer is like this line: M2 = 0.4 t + 1
M2 is the fiat currency (Broad currency) in trillions
t is the time in years
The time is 1980 till 2024!!
The money printing machine is pretty consistent!!!
Check the numbers. Source is ECB themselves!!
https://data.ecb.europa.eu/data/datasets/BSI/BSI.M.U2.Y.V.M20.X.1.U2.2300.Z01.E
nostr:npub1cj8znuztfqkvq89pl8hceph0svvvqk0qay6nydgk9uyq7fhpfsgsqwrz4u here are the numbers the European printer is producing!!
Almost a straight line up. 400 billion a year. 16 x in 44 years!!!
https://data.ecb.europa.eu/data/datasets/BSI/BSI.M.U2.Y.V.M20.X.1.U2.2300.Z01.E
Awesome. Thanks. Great you found it valuable!! That inspires me to keep building it and documenting the process.
Me. nostr:npub1se5vk4ewdyd379fx204yr4hcvkd9l09xvpg6acd0hl0ucs4pnpvs5fktfz !! Why? I’m building a macro economic model of USA and I’m going to open source it. And I’m writing about it on Nostr!!
It will help people understand how the economy works and how the fiat currency printing keeps them running in the threadmill.
The USA Macro Economic Model Series: Episode 1: Why the Heck do you need a Macro Economic Model?
Is the USA economy actually growing if you measure everything in barrels of oil or Tesla’s?
How huge is the debt and why is it unstustainable? The numbers please!
What happens with the consumers, the profits of Mainstreet businesses if there is a huge debt crisis and the economy contracts with 5% and unemployment increases with 7% in 5 years?
Will rasing the tarifs backfire and explode in the faces of the ones that raise tarifs and why you will ultimately pay for it?
And finally: what happens if the USA adopts the Bitcoin Treasury Policy of Micheal Saylor, like Microstrategy did?
All big questions you cannot normally answer! The USA economy is the largest economy in the world, but there is nobody explaining how it works to you.
I’m a macro economist. And I have already created 12 macro economic models of 12 countries in the world. I have trained senior policy advisors of huge countries like Namibia, Kenyia, Zambia, and also small countries like Suriname, Turks and Caicos, Jamaica, Aruba and Sint Lucia.
Why would you care?
Because with these macro economic models you get a feeling of :
- the numbers, how big, how small
- the trends om the numbers, is it increasing or decreasing and how much?
- how key economic processes work: what happens to unemployment when inflation cannot be controlled by the Federal Reserve?
- How it affects you: what is the purchasing power of the average American going?
- what could happen if something happens: what if we raise the tarifs on China or Europe with say 100%?
Spoiler alert: it will hurt you badly!
How can we create such a model? What are the steps?
It is not easy to pull it off to create a macro economic model! Not many can do that! Yes, you could create a simple spreadsheet with some basic formulas that work on each other.
But creating a fully functional macro economic model is different game.
Especially if you want ordinary people like you reading this, with no Phd in mathemactics and Economics, like my mentor dr Van Schaaijk, -retired - to use it, understand it.
Especially if you want to democratize and decentralize the economic discussion, like what I’m about to do!!
Yes: I don’t want you to sit and watch the Federal Reserve Board talk about how they are monitoring inflation and why they cut interest rates by 0.25 percent.
I want you to grab that USA economic model - a spreadsheet - and gather some 5 of your friends, business partners or your family around a table, hook that hdmi cable into that screen you normally watch Netflix on and say: Hey what does this chart tell me?
Ohhh that is M2, the Supply of currency? Wow is that how it is growing?
Where is the source, click here. Yes. Ok this guy Runy did not create these numbers. They come from the FED website.
Ok. Why is this going up?
And what if we increase this with say another 4 trillion here in this year?
Lets do that, click! Oh look at that! That inflation! Oh consumption now going down!
I want you to be able to do that!!!
Why?
Because I care about you. Your education. And educating yourself is the only way I know you can maintain your wealth and grow your wealth.
How I’m going to do it!
I’m going to do it like this:
I will write what I do, gather data here on Nostr at least once a week!!
These posts in this series are my commitment to you!
These posts are my communication with you!!
You can read, comment, highlight anything you want. You can ask questions.
You can participate and even be critical.
You can support this by sending me sats! On another post I discussed what my sales target is for this year, and possibly the next 10 years in BTC!!
So you van communicate with me.
If you send me sats just let me know your country in the tag so I know where you are from. That is for me to know how many people from USA, China, Europe, Latin America are interested in the USA economy and want to understand it.
I will open source it.
Yes, once I gather the data I will open source the data on my Github account!
So there you will see a folder with all the data, all the spreadsheets and the python code I create to analyze the USA economy.
Why?
Because I want to decentralize the knowledge about the USA economy!
I want you to understand each formula and even build upon it.
I will organize online sessions to discuss the USA economy for the Bitcoin community.
If you are an employee working and saving in Bitcoin, if you are a small business owner having a Bitcoin treasury policy and saving in Bitcoin, if you are a Bitcoin Maxi, Tripple Maxi, Bitvoij Influencer, I want you to be able to dive deeper.
In the online sessions I will prepare a topic, I will prepare some scenarios, update the USA macro model with the latest data and share it.
Discuss about scenarios, answer questions.
You will see me running scenarios and discussing these.
Once the USA Macro Model is ready I will run these sessions every quarter.
These sessions will be paid.
How can you support this?
You can by sending me sats.
You can by asking questions.
You can by sharing this post with others, especially in the groups of people I mentioned above.
You can by helping me gather data.
You can by telling me about how YOU think the USA economy works. I’m here to learn.
See you in the next episode where I discuss the 57 indicators we need about the USA economy.
Runy
Imagine the Central Banks kept their Currency supply flat
Check the image below. It is the Currency Supply called M2 of the Europe!
It goes almost staight up in a line!
In math you can get that like as y = ax + b
a is the coefficient. X is the time. And b is the interception. It looks like b is 1 trillion (when x is 0).
And it looks like a is 4/10 is 0.4.
Y = 0.4x +1
There you have it. That is the monetary policy of Ms. Christine Lagarde of the European Central Bank and her predecessors of the past 40 years.
You can calculate yourself when the Y (that is the currency supply) will double. For that use the equation 2*Y above.
And you see the rate of growth looks like 0.4. Every year, 0.4 added. Trillion.
0.4 Trillion, isn’t that 400 billion Euros added every year!!
Isn’t that crazy???
It is!!
We have to take a look at the amount of stuff that is produced by Europe every year. To see how much it grows. And how flat that line is compared to the M2 line above. M2 is the measure of the currency supply the European Central Bank uses.
Look how Crazy this gets!!
The European Central bank targets inflation. That is a measure of how fast a basket of goods and services that nobody actually buys increases in value.
But “they” are at the source of the problem. They control the money printer. Lets call it the currency printer.
So here is how it works. You increase the currency supply at 400 billion per year in a straight line. It means you print more currency no matter if the economy is producing more stuff or not. And you monitor how fast the money becomes worthless (= inflation).
So you print currency and you messure and try to control how fast that currency turns back into worthless paper.
What would happen if the European Central Bank flattens the line. a = 0.
Well a= 0 means some people and businesses are in real trouble!
a = 0 means you have a flat line!! No currency growth any more!!
That is basically what Bitcoin is!
It is capped!
Bitcoin is of course growing, but it is maxed! After a certain period when all the Bitcoin is created it will not grow any more!
Imagine Ms Christine Lagarde and all the future Presidents of the European Central Bank doing that!
A fixed Currency policy!!
That would change expectations completely.
Set it in stone!
No politician can ever incrase the European currency supply more than say 16 trillion!
Can you imagine what that would mean?
But Europe is not adapting a Bitcoin strategy.
Europe is currently not embracing Bitcoin like the new Trump administration.
Have you heard Europe do anything to solve the massive problems like aging, migration, energy crisis, war on its soil?
Increasing production, making the environment more innovative so companies can grow?
I have not.
In another post I therefore said why I decided to focus on Europeans that adopt and embrace Bitcoin!
If you are here let me know you are. You can do it by just swnding me a sat and add your European country to the message.
If the European Central bank continues with its policy based on 400 Billion per year, and the European economy doesn’t grow physically, you know that the Euro will become less and less worth. And that the inflation will fontinue for ever.
And that in every future dip of the growth of the economy the European Central Bank will turn the currency printing press again to print a notch faster.
In this case the only profitable thing to invest in in Europe is paper and ink producing companies.
Let me know what you think
Runy
Testing Blink Wallet to Primal.net wallet
In 2025 I want to move my activities from centralized social media - Linkedin - Youtube to more decentralized social media like Nostr and Keet.
What are rhe benefits and why should you also consider it?
1. Centralized media owns your post while on decentralized media you can take your posts anywhere wit you.
2. On Decentralized Social media they own Bitcoin and on Centralized Social media they own fiat - US dollars
Think a little bit about that! In my previous post I said that my target is to get 0.01 BTC per day. Check that post above, so you see why I set my goals in BTC terms and I’m not measuring my time and work in US dollars any more in 2025.
If your goal is to earn BTC, who owns more BTC: the millions of people on Linkedin, Youtube and Facebook or… the maybe thousands and ten thousands of people on Decentralized Social Media? Like Nostr and Keet?
YES!!! You got it right! Those 19 million Bitcoins are in the hands of the few. The 1% of the global population! And they are NOT in the hands of the 99% on Centralized Social media.
Once you realize this your business world view shifts. Am I going to target thousands of people and “eyeballs” on Youtube and Linkedin that have US dollars that can be printed endlessly?
Or am I going to focus on the few maybe maybe hundreds of people part of the 1% of the global population that owns Bitcoin?
You don’t only look at those views and those likes and those comments on Youtube anymore and those shares and reposts on Linkedin!
3. Lets look at the regions. Lets take Europe for instance.
How much fiat currency has been created in Europe, say the past 40 years.
In the picture you see that Europe is now at almost 16 trillion Euros in the Money printing game.
You see that the M2 - that is a measure of broad currency grew from 2 trillion in 1990 to 8 trillion in 2010. So 4 times in just 20 years!! You see the slope steepening arpund 2008 meaning that the rate they added paper in the printer during the credit crisis increased.
4 times more currency. I bet the economy and the amount of stuff produced in Europe during those 20 years did not increase by 4.
Thus the currency grew more than the stuff. So the amount of Euros per kilo or liter of stuff increased. That is called inflation.
From 2010 to 2020 the currency supply went from 8 to 12. That is +50%.
And from 2020 to say 2024 it went up from 12 to almost 16 trillion. +33%.
European Centralized Social Media is not profitable
What does this have to do with my decision to move to Decentralized Social Media?
It means that all the viewers of Youtube and Linkedin living in Europe have become poorer! They currency has been decreasing in value.
The Euro has been printed like crazy since 1990!
Why would I focus on attracting these viewers to my online training programs?
All they bring is dilluted paper that is worthless!!
And it is NOT their fault!!
They have been working like crazy. Doing manual work, running spreadsheets, leaving office late, having a stressful life!
And they now got pockets full of worthless paper.
I wonder how I could find the Europeans on Nostr that have Bitcoin
If you are here and you are living in Europe just send me 1 sat. So I know you are from Europe. 1 sat is enough and proof that you live there. If you value this post and you want me to continue this discussion you can send more if you want.
I appreciate every single sat!!
Just add your country to it please when you send me the sat. Then I can do my own research.
Final Reason Decentralized Social Media is an exchange of value!!!
That is a key one!!!
I tested this myself by taking a Blink Wallet and sending myself 57 sats to my Primal Wallet.
I just wanted to fund my Primal Wallet.
It went easily. I could add a short note to it. And instantly the 57 sats were in my Primal wallet.
Now think a moment.
Instant VALUE transfer.
VALUE for VALUE economy.
This is HUGE!
No likes, comments, reposts. No eyeballs of people earning fiat currency like the Euro.
No. But instant VALUE!!
Something scarce.
Something precious.
Something the European Central Bank cannot PRINT!!
Instantly transacted to me.
A piece of the 21 million Bitcoins!
This is PRECIOUS!!
No banks.
No central banks.
No adds.
No Linkedin nor Youtube ads.
Nothing.
But instant VALUE!
You like it?
You can afford it?
Some sats.
If you can’t all good!
That is why I’m moving to Decentralized Social Media.
Lets go!!!
Runy
Setting Targets for 2025: Living on the Bitcoin Standard
Imagine you have 1 Bitcoin.
What does this mean? Have you really thought about this?
You own 1/20 millionth of possibly EVERYTHING you can buy in the world!!!
Think about that for a second.
You take everything in the world: like the world GDP.
That is 21 million. That is their value.
And you now got 1 of those 21 million. You got 21 millionth of what you can buy!
Now that world GDP will grow!! Businesses will produce more stuff tommorow.
Things will wear down. Buildings and cars for instance.
But businesses will produce more.
They will ger more stuff out of the ground!
Say that World stuff grows by 2% a year.
More stuff in the world.
But you still own your 1 Bitcoin.
If you own 1Bitcoin you are amongst the wealthiest people in the world.
Notice I did not mention US dollars, Euros, Swiss Francs.
I did not measure the world’s GDP in any of those metrics.
I did not mention Bitcoin’s price in US dollars, Euros, or Swiss Francs.
Because it doesn’t matter. Thos metrics change constantly.
We cannot rely on them.
We cannot measure in them.
Now what is next?
Earn in Bitcoin?
Your wages in Bitcoin?
Your time in Bitcoin?
How much is your daily rate in Bitcoin if there is only 21 million Bitcoin ever?
Is that 0.01 BTC per day?
What is your sales target for 2025 in BTC?
You want to earn per year in BTC?
Imagine you say: my sales target is 0.01 BTC per day.
So that means working 90 days your quarterly BTC target is: 0.9 BTC.
And your annual target is 3.6 BTC.
No matter what the US, Euro, Swiss conversion rate is!!
Could you program your mind, your business, your activities to do this?
I’m going to try!!!
Let me know your thoughts.
Runy
Why Paying Me Only 100 USD In BTC is Better 15 Times Better Than Paying Me in Fiat Currency
Imagine you pay me 100 dollars an hour for a job.
Why would I prefer to take that 100 USD in SATS then taking it in USD?
What Is My Inflation?
Asuming my real inflation is 15%, and not 2-3% what the government is telling me then according to the rule of 72, in 4,8 years this 100 USD you pay me today in Fiat currency will be half.
It will have half the purchasing power of today.
So in 4,8 years the 100 USD you pay me today for 1 hour of work will only buy me USD 50 in goods and services.
5 years is the half life of fiat currency in a high inflation world we are living in today. And that is for the “best” fiat currency we have in the world: the US dollar! For all other currencies it is shorter than this!
The Rule of 72
The rule of 72 says you divide 72 by the inflation and you get 4,8. The 4,8 is the number of years your initial “investment” of 100 USD decreases in value by half.
Paying me in BTC
If I take the 100 USD in SATS and I assume the BTC grows with 50% per year (which is very low as in 2024 alone it grew with 130%), I can calculate what my initial “investment” in BTC will be after 4,8 years.
Lets take 5 years.
So my USD 100 needs to be multiplied by 1,5*1,5*1,5*1,5*1,5. (5 years)
That will be: USD 759,38!
If I take the 100 USD in SATS in 5 years I will not have USD 50 in purchasing power but I will have USD 759,38 in purchasing power after 5 years.
You could argue that I have to only multiply by 1,35 ( which is the increase of BTC of 1,5 minus the increase of inflation 0,15). Do that refined calculation yourself.
Calculate 100 * 1,35 to the power of 5.
What is my benefit of taking BTC today?
So there you have it.
If I take the 100 USD in fiat today my purchasing power is USD 50 after 5 years.
If I take the 100 USD in SATS today my purchasing power is USD 759 in 5 years.
Now take 759/50 and you get 15,18!!
By taking the Bitcoin today I have 15 x my purchasing power in 5 years!!
How much am I paid today if I accept the Bitcoin instead of the fiat currency?
So if your time preference is 5 years and your horizon is 5 years (this is the time you take into account when you take the job), you are actually being paid 1500 USD per hour today!
You don’t get 100 USD per hour.
If you take the 100 USD in SATS your hourly pay is actually 1500 USD.
15 x more than you actually see in your hands.
If you only have a time horizon of 5 years.
Summary
There you have it!
That is the power of being paid in hard money versus soft currency!
That is the difference between accepting Bitcoin versus accepting USD.
Runy Calmera
Host Island Wealth
M*V = P*Y
M is the money supply
V is the money velocity. How often money changes hands.
P is the Price.
And Y is Production.
Production
Im a world with technological innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and human ingenuity, global production, Y will definitely increase.
We become smarter and we produce more stuff. Food, houses, buildings, cars, computers and education.
More stuff in the world.
Fixed Money Supply
In a world of hyper bitcoinization there will be only 21 million Bitcoin ever.
Whatever we do, whatever governments and central banks want, nobody can change this.
M is fixed.
Saving and low time preference.
In a world where we save, V will slow down. People will think twice what they need.
Instead of buying that nice car every 5 years, would you save more and slow down your consumption?
If V slows down, and M is fixed and Y goes up, P has to fall.
Prices go down.
Forever.
You get more stuff per Bitcoin.
You get more abundance and the measuring stick is fixed.
You get more houses per Bitcoin. Or less Bitcoin per house.
Runy
The Fiat Currency Machine
Imagine entering a machine.
You het a desk.
You get an office.
You get something to do.
You work 9-17:00
You retire after 40 years.
Imagine at the top of the machine is a lever.
Somebody pulls that lever
And fiat currency comes out.
Say 200.000 USD.
You are happy.
You feel wealthy.
Now imagine
Somebody can just pull that lever and out comes 500.000 usd.
Another day somebody pulls that lever put comes 1000.000 usd.
In the weekend somebody can pull that lever out comes 10.000.000 usd.
How would you feel?
You spend 8 hours a day, 40 hours a week, 160 hours a month, 1760 hours a year, 40 years long of hard working in that machine to chase some dollars,
But somebody could just pull that lever and out comes the US dollars they want.
Without any effort.
How would you feel?
About this Fiat Currency Machine?
You don’t command the lever.
You don’t know where the lever is.
You only know it exists.
And that somebody is pulling at that lever.
Imagine there is a store in the Fiat Currency Machine.
Where you can buy anything you want.
Food, groceries, vacations, subscriptions, a house and stocks.
And everything you can buy is priced in dollars.
Imagine you show up with your 200.000 us dollars feeling wealthy in terms of US dollars.
But today the Fiat Currency Machine has been stacked with so many US dollars that there is so many that other hard working people, making stuff like houses, subscriptions, groceries, food and vacations are feeling overwhelmed.
So they don’t value the us dollars you bring.
Imagine because somebody pulled at the lever at will, you now feel poor with your 200.000 US dollars.
Imagine you can now huy only one vacation with your 200.000 US dollars.
How do you feel now?
Are you already thinking about how to escape this Fiat Currency Machine?
Can you?
If you wake up without wanting to go to work for US dollars now you know about this Fiat Currency Machine, it is not your fault.
If you feel frustrated when you want to buy something and you realize your fiat dollars became less worth it is not your fault.
Bitcoin fixes this.
Runy
Today I went to buy groceries.
Salmon 18 dollars.
It used to be 7 dollars.
Then I realized again:
The prices are not going up.
The value of my money is going down.
They fool you to think prices are rising.
Yes I used to pay 7 dollars for a piece of salmon.
But because they are printing fiat dollars like crazy now I have to give them 18 dollars for the salmon.
I have to give them more of this fiat currency because it is decreasing in value.
The saomon is not getting more expensive.
Then I realized again that I’m trading my hours for fiat currency.
Trading it for something that gets less and less worth.
How many days I have left? How many hours I have left?
My hours are scarce abd the most precious I have got.
They are limited.
And why am I trading my precious scarce hours for something that becomes less and less worth every day?
The only thing you should trade your hours for is something fixed!
Something they cannot make more of.
Something scarce.
Something limited, like the hours of my life!
That is why I’m here on Nostr.
To give you my value.
To build on something that is unstoppable.
To be able to build on unstoppable social media.
To build on something that is going to increase in value.
Next time you go buy groceries just notice how the prices did not increase.
Notice how your dollars or your fiat got less worth.
Runy