I am really proud to be the father of this meme. Is it weird I laugh at my own memes? nostr:note10v6zh02n4rkqnw6jjr3pstk96zgp0c9x5xqt9l3hu4fme66nvwwqjwzkg4

In John 14:6, Jesus said, "I am the way, the truth, and the life.”

#biblestr

You're crushing it with all these sticker spots 🫡

Riffing on the Stock-to-Flow Model

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In the jungle of the fiat world, there are crafty creatures known as scammers who have a distinct trait: they never admit they're wrong. You could proclaim, "Hey, this isn't working!" They'd shake their heads, waggle a finger, and claim you simply misunderstood. Suggest that Bitcoin would be a more useful route? They'd passionately argue for a convoluted token system. Even if you stated the obvious - that the sky is blue - they'd spin doubts about your statement by talking about its purple hues.

You see, scammers, like poker players, know that a single misstep can shatter the illusion of trust they've carefully built up with their victims. They've been so deeply conditioned to lie that they'll parry any perceived attack, all to maintain their delicate house of cards.

Now, let me make it clear, I'm aiming to be brutally honest with myself. I've previously analyzed the stock-to-flow model and, with conviction, declared it the only price model that made sense with me. While that hasn't changed entirely (though that says more about price models than this particular one), I've realized that something making sense doesn't necessarily make it true.

The past 18 months have been a philosophical sabbatical from the price-driven narrative of Bitcoin, mainly because this particular set of models have let us down. It was wrong, and there's nothing like a major error to trigger some deep self-reflection. So, armed with introspection and hopefully, some humility, I pen this article.

Let's revisit the source - the stock-to-flow model. My understanding of it, and I suspect, many others, hails from Saifedean Ammous's enlightening work, *The Bitcoin Standard*. It suggests that the existing stock of an asset, coupled with its annual increase, reveals how challenging it is for us humans to accumulate or create more of it. This is the core concept, and it's a handy tool for understanding relative scarcity and the effort needed to obtain a certain resource.

However, the model is a very different thing. Initially, the S2F model was a clever method to link an asset's stock-to-flow ratio with its market cap. At first glance, it seemed plausible; scarcity does, after all, influence price. But, as I reflected, I realized that scarcity is just one cog in the vast machinery of price determination.

Scarcity can nudge supply and possibly demand, but there's so much more involved. When it comes to supply, think about the influence of knowledge, technology, labor, and time. On the demand side, factors multiply - potential uses of the asset, liquidity, portability, and so on. So, the price, and thus, the market cap of an asset, isn't a straightforward equation of a single variable like scarcity.

In retrospect, I see now that many of us, myself included, yearned for this model to hold true. We were seduced by the possibility that since the supply of Bitcoin is so predictable and known, we could perhaps also do the same with price. The S2F/S2FX models promised the allure of future knowledge in the rollercoaster ride that is Bitcoin's global adoption.

Could there still be a model out there that accurately mirrors price? Possibly. But as with any hypothesis, it must stand the test of accuracy. If it doesn't hit the mark, it's time to swallow our pride and admit we got it wrong. It didn't and I was wrong.

Every year, I spend 1-2 months living in Egypt. This is because my husband is originally from Egypt, his family is much larger than mine, and so while our economic base is in the US, our social base is actually in Egypt. I thus became multinational many years ago.

However, my husband spends 3-4 months each year in Egypt, while I only spend 1-2 months there. So, there are 1-2 months where I’m in the US alone. The reason I choose to do this is to look after the household and business, and because I’m not as productive in Egypt (inconsistent internet, less optimal workstation, way more social pressures, and so forth).

In some ways, we find that spending some time apart strengthens our relationship and lets us focus on our separate things for part of the year. And when we meet after 1-2 months, it’s such a great reunion. We find ourselves wanting to catch up on so much and spend extra time together. But also, even though in some ways I look forward to having time alone and indeed get a lot done during that time, I immediately regret it once I am alone. I find myself constantly looking forward to going to Egypt, as I am now. During these periods, I end up posting more on social media, either constructively or non-constructively, in what tends to be a replacement for diminished in-person contact.

This seems to be amplified by my work situation. When I was an engineer, I worked with colleagues in person each day, but now that I work from home, my colleagues are virtual and I meet them in person only at major events. So, this relatively brief window each year of being in a different place than my husband tends to be oddly monk-like, with me at home alone 24 hours per day, working and living and doing whatever I do. I think one of my future goals will be to increase my deliberate effort at spending time with local friends, especially during this part of the year.

Anyway, I’m doing a series of “real thoughts” uniquely on Nostr, and this is the first one.

Conclusion: Social circles are (obviously) a very important thing, including for workaholics and introverts like myself. Social circles affect us in various ways, and having gone through many cycles, I have become increasingly aware of the changes that take place during these seasonal cycles of being close to others vs far from others.

Very cool. Is it popular thing in South Africa?

Apparently this is what an ostrich #steakstr looks like.

#nostriches look yummy 😋

Only one bird left.

#Nostr is winning