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DrLuke
8b4e5120b9547c4d1048750de770108330cf635c1ce25cfb18b32992a83115e4
Husband, Father, Son, Brother, Disciple, Friend, Doctor, Mentor, Coach, Teacher, #Bitcoin, #Nostr, #SouthAfrica πŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦, #Photography, #Wildlife, #Birding, #Languages, JoshGen.co.za, kena.health, Healthforce.io, ✝️🧑 πŸ’ πŸ“– πŸŒπŸ©ΊπŸ“·πŸ•οΈπŸ¦œπŸ¦πŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦

GM #nostr

#Nostrplebs have #coffeechain

Dirty water πŸ’§ dirty money πŸ’°

Fix it - study #bitcoin with nostr:npub18kpw3akvdsyk239lx0jgwksr74sq4nlha3r8u9g2rnrhztfpfhysy469c4

I was privileged to visit Herman, Luthando and the nostr:npub1zkr064avsxmxzaasppamps86ge0npwvft9yu3ymgxmk9umx3xyeq9sk6ec Ekasi team last year! What an inspirational story they have and they show you how much #Bitcoin Rocks.

Almost a 1/3 of the stickers I printed done now.

My two children study in Stellenbosch, a town 30min away.

Looks like I will have to go for a visit and continue sticking some there!

#bitcoin below 29K, time to educate more and stack #sats

Let’s share and broadcast #nostr #coffeechain nostr:note10387h6uzc3x44zzvndckmqhkdnnvv9hec8h0awzelkaejk5dn43sgg09mg

I realy believe that people should be educated and you have amazing resources on tge site.

The biggest challenge is all the descriptions I have to think of, but I am loving it and hope it will result in lots of engagement!

Hopefully a some orange πŸ’Š nuubs join us on #nostr.

Replying to Avatar DrLuke

Great insights nostr:npub10vlhsqm4qar0g42p8g3plqyktmktd8hnprew45w638xzezgja95qapsp42, thank you.

Greed is such a deep rooted human nature characteristic that it’s probably safe to say we can consider it part of the famous blind spot we all have.

The heart is deceptive above all things and the best thing for me and maybe other #bitcoin adopters would be to guard our hearts in the expected post-halving bull market.

Let the light in and treat the models gor what they are, models.

One of my favorites, taken in the Kgalagadi desert a few years back.

Replying to Avatar jimmysong

Riffing on the Stock-to-Flow Model

β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”

In the jungle of the fiat world, there are crafty creatures known as scammers who have a distinct trait: they never admit they're wrong. You could proclaim, "Hey, this isn't working!" They'd shake their heads, waggle a finger, and claim you simply misunderstood. Suggest that Bitcoin would be a more useful route? They'd passionately argue for a convoluted token system. Even if you stated the obvious - that the sky is blue - they'd spin doubts about your statement by talking about its purple hues.

You see, scammers, like poker players, know that a single misstep can shatter the illusion of trust they've carefully built up with their victims. They've been so deeply conditioned to lie that they'll parry any perceived attack, all to maintain their delicate house of cards.

Now, let me make it clear, I'm aiming to be brutally honest with myself. I've previously analyzed the stock-to-flow model and, with conviction, declared it the only price model that made sense with me. While that hasn't changed entirely (though that says more about price models than this particular one), I've realized that something making sense doesn't necessarily make it true.

The past 18 months have been a philosophical sabbatical from the price-driven narrative of Bitcoin, mainly because this particular set of models have let us down. It was wrong, and there's nothing like a major error to trigger some deep self-reflection. So, armed with introspection and hopefully, some humility, I pen this article.

Let's revisit the source - the stock-to-flow model. My understanding of it, and I suspect, many others, hails from Saifedean Ammous's enlightening work, *The Bitcoin Standard*. It suggests that the existing stock of an asset, coupled with its annual increase, reveals how challenging it is for us humans to accumulate or create more of it. This is the core concept, and it's a handy tool for understanding relative scarcity and the effort needed to obtain a certain resource.

However, the model is a very different thing. Initially, the S2F model was a clever method to link an asset's stock-to-flow ratio with its market cap. At first glance, it seemed plausible; scarcity does, after all, influence price. But, as I reflected, I realized that scarcity is just one cog in the vast machinery of price determination.

Scarcity can nudge supply and possibly demand, but there's so much more involved. When it comes to supply, think about the influence of knowledge, technology, labor, and time. On the demand side, factors multiply - potential uses of the asset, liquidity, portability, and so on. So, the price, and thus, the market cap of an asset, isn't a straightforward equation of a single variable like scarcity.

In retrospect, I see now that many of us, myself included, yearned for this model to hold true. We were seduced by the possibility that since the supply of Bitcoin is so predictable and known, we could perhaps also do the same with price. The S2F/S2FX models promised the allure of future knowledge in the rollercoaster ride that is Bitcoin's global adoption.

Could there still be a model out there that accurately mirrors price? Possibly. But as with any hypothesis, it must stand the test of accuracy. If it doesn't hit the mark, it's time to swallow our pride and admit we got it wrong. It didn't and I was wrong.

Great insights nostr:npub10vlhsqm4qar0g42p8g3plqyktmktd8hnprew45w638xzezgja95qapsp42, thank you.

Greed is such a deep rooted human nature characteristic that it’s probably safe to say we can consider it part of the famous blind spot we all have.

The heart is deceptive above all things and the best thing for me and maybe other #bitcoin adopters would be to guard our hearts in the expected post-halving bull market.

Let the light in and treat the models gor what they are, models.

#Bitcoin - Like a bridge over troubled waters 🎡

nostr:npub18kpw3akvdsyk239lx0jgwksr74sq4nlha3r8u9g2rnrhztfpfhysy469c4

#nostr

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

Every year, I spend 1-2 months living in Egypt. This is because my husband is originally from Egypt, his family is much larger than mine, and so while our economic base is in the US, our social base is actually in Egypt. I thus became multinational many years ago.

However, my husband spends 3-4 months each year in Egypt, while I only spend 1-2 months there. So, there are 1-2 months where I’m in the US alone. The reason I choose to do this is to look after the household and business, and because I’m not as productive in Egypt (inconsistent internet, less optimal workstation, way more social pressures, and so forth).

In some ways, we find that spending some time apart strengthens our relationship and lets us focus on our separate things for part of the year. And when we meet after 1-2 months, it’s such a great reunion. We find ourselves wanting to catch up on so much and spend extra time together. But also, even though in some ways I look forward to having time alone and indeed get a lot done during that time, I immediately regret it once I am alone. I find myself constantly looking forward to going to Egypt, as I am now. During these periods, I end up posting more on social media, either constructively or non-constructively, in what tends to be a replacement for diminished in-person contact.

This seems to be amplified by my work situation. When I was an engineer, I worked with colleagues in person each day, but now that I work from home, my colleagues are virtual and I meet them in person only at major events. So, this relatively brief window each year of being in a different place than my husband tends to be oddly monk-like, with me at home alone 24 hours per day, working and living and doing whatever I do. I think one of my future goals will be to increase my deliberate effort at spending time with local friends, especially during this part of the year.

Anyway, I’m doing a series of β€œreal thoughts” uniquely on Nostr, and this is the first one.

Conclusion: Social circles are (obviously) a very important thing, including for workaholics and introverts like myself. Social circles affect us in various ways, and having gone through many cycles, I have become increasingly aware of the changes that take place during these seasonal cycles of being close to others vs far from others.

Family & loved ones - Priceless

We can fix money, we can build #bitcoin and #nostr but we need relationships to sustain us and help us grow.

Cherish your alone time, but go and enjoy Egypt πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡¬ with your husband when it’s time.

Not as much as beef biltong. In the South(Western Cape) a bit more, because that is where the ostrich farmers are.

I will remember to take a picture next time…

We also have ostrich β€œbiltong” here - it’s dried, salted meat.

The garden πŸͺ΄ needs attention

The money πŸ’΅ needs attention

nostr:npub18kpw3akvdsyk239lx0jgwksr74sq4nlha3r8u9g2rnrhztfpfhysy469c4 on #nostr

Sun β˜€οΈ Water πŸ’§ Wind πŸ’¨

We were given energy!

Study #bitcoin and energy nostr:npub18kpw3akvdsyk239lx0jgwksr74sq4nlha3r8u9g2rnrhztfpfhysy469c4